This paper derives the optimal unemployment insurance (UI) transfer scheme, UI benefits, and UI contribution fees: When a worker has to earn his or her UI eligibility through work, the UI benefits do not last forever, and the UI agency has imperfect monitoring power on the strategic behavior of the worker. We show that the consideration of the UI eligibility rule generates the effective entitlement effect, which serves as an additional incentive device and alters the nature of the optimal UI transfer scheme established in literature. In contrast with previous studies, we find that when the effective entitlement effect is large, it completely removes the moral hazards in job searches, job acceptances, and job quits. As a result, the optimal UI benefits and contribution fees become constant. Calibrated to the data in the United States, the model reproduces some key features of the existing UI system.

Anticipating a bailout in the event of a crisis distorts financial intermediaries’ incentives in multiple dimensions. Bailout payments can, for example, lead intermediaries to issue too much short-term debt while simultaneously underinvesting in liquid assets. To correct these distortions, policymakers may choose to regulate the composition of both the assets and liabilities of intermediaries. I examine these regulations in a version of the Diamond and Dybvig [(1983). Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity. Journal of Political Economy, 91(3), 401–419] model with limited commitment. I demonstrate that, contrary to common wisdom, introducing a minimum liquidity requirement can increase intermediaries’ susceptibility to a run by their investors.

This paper investigates the international dimension of economic fluctuations and transmission of structural shocks by estimating a structural VAR model for the United States, the euro area, and Japan—the three largest economies—over the post-Bretton Woods period. The main findings are as follows: (1) Supply-side shocks (technology and supply-level shocks) explain most of the fluctuations in cross-country output deviations. (2) Real-demand shocks are the most important source of real-exchange-rate fluctuations. (3) Current account is usually influenced by all types of shocks, with technology shocks playing a stronger role. In particular, technology shocks play a prominent role in the existing global imbalance (the large external deficit of the United States). (4) Technology and supply-level shocks generate opposite-signed correlations between output differential and current account, whereas real and nominal-demand shocks generate opposite-signed correlations between real exchange rate and current account.

In an exogenous-growth economy with overlapping generations, the Cobb–Douglas production, any positive life-cycle productivity, and time-separable constant elasticity of substitution (CES) utility, we analyze local stability of a balanced growth equilibrium (BGE) with respect to changes in consumption endowments, which could be interpreted as a transfer policy. We show that generically, in the space of parameters, equilibria around a BGE are locally unique and are locally differentiable functions of endowments, with derivatives given by kernels. Furthermore, those equilibria are stable in the sense that the effects of temporary changes decay exponentially toward ±∞.

The impact that output has on future total factor productivity is not internalized by competitive agents. As a result, the allocation that a planner would choose cannot be reached as a competitive equilibrium outcome (neither for infinitely lived agents nor for overlapping generations): the market remuneration to capital and labor is too low. The planner's allocation can nonetheless be implemented by a fiscal policy subsidizing the returns to savings and the wage rate as needed. The exact policy differs depending on whether only past investment or total output influences productivity: in the first case only capital returns need to be subsidized, whereas in the second case labor income needs to be subsidized too. The policy is balanced period by period by means of a lump-sum tax.

We present a class of stochastic regime-switching models. The time-series models may have periodic transition probabilities and the drifts may be seasonal. In the latter case, the model exhibits seasonal dummy variation that may change with the regime. The processes entail nontrivial interactions between so-called business and seasonal cycles. We discuss the stochastic properties as well as their relationship with periodic ARMA processes. Estimation and testing are also discussed in detail.

This paper extends the Chamley–Judd framework by introducing preference externalities in a neoclassical growth model, and finds that the optimal capital tax increases with the extent of social-status seeking or negative leisure externalities. Furthermore, this paper finds that differences in leisure externalities lead to a distinct impact on optimal factor income taxes, and hence may serve as a plausible vehicle to explain the empirical differences in factor income taxation in the United States and Europe.

We examine technical efficiency in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). In addition to economic indicators, political and social ones play a role in development and efficiency profiles. The MENA have been characterized by increasing economic efficiency over time but with marked polarization. We analyze and nest many key hypotheses, e.g., the contributions of religion, of natural resources, demographic pressures, human capital, etc. The originality of our contribution is the use of a large data set (including principal components), and extensive robustness checks. It should set a comprehensive benchmark and cross-check for related studies of development and technical efficiency.

I study the role of shocks to beliefs combined with Bayesian learning in a standard equilibrium business cycle framework. In particular, I examine how a prior belief arising from the Great Depression may have influenced the macroeconomy during the last 75 years. In the model, households hold twisted beliefs concerning the likelihood and persistence of recession and boom states that are affected by the Great Depression. These initial beliefs are substantially different from the true data generating process and are only gradually unwound during subsequent years. Even though the driving stochastic process for technology is unchanged over the entire period, the nature of macroeconomic performance is altered considerably for many decades before eventually converging to the rational expectations equilibrium. This provides some evidence of the lingering effects of beliefs-twisting events on the behavior of macroeconomic variables.

This note provides a formal justification for the Friedman and Savage nonconcavity in the utility of money. This is based on the possibility of indivisibilities in the consumption possibilities set. A precise characterization of when gambling is optimal (and the optimal type) is provided in one special case. Some possible limitations are considered.

The paper utilizes a common approach to derive sufficient conditions for strictly monotonic behavior of three ratios along the transition to the steady state in the Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans model: the consumption–capital ratio, the consumption–output ratio (and the saving rate), and the consumption–wage ratio. These conditions are then applied to derive additional results on the transitional dynamics of the distribution of wealth in the model (when individual consumers are differentiated by their initial wealth endowments).

It was always considered to be a major achievement of modern business cycle economics that it was solidly grounded in neoclassical growth theory. Preserving this joint foundation, however, imposes a discipline on the specification of models with variable capital utilization. In this note we show that conventional specifications of the depreciation cost of capital utilization and the labor supply elasticity, introduced into business cycle theory to generate a satisfactory amplification of shocks, entail counterfactual growth dynamics: the positive association between capital stock and GDP along the growth path turns negative. Across economies with access to the same technology, the economy with the lowest capital stock per capita is predicted to produce the highest output per capita. We compute lower and upper bounds for the involved elasticities between which these counterfactual dynamics are avoided.

In a standard overlapping generations model, we show how the health effects of pollution impact the balanced-growth path (BGP) and the transition dynamics of the economy. The key driver is the differential between physical and human capital accumulation. The differential occurs because pollution alters the incentives to save and to invest in education via reductions in longevity and alters the effectiveness of education expenditures via impaired cognitive learning. Two predictions of the model are noteworthy. The first prediction is the existence of two stable BGPs with a separating saddle path. One BGP is desirable featuring high economic growth and low pollution, whereas the other should be avoided because it is associated with low economic growth and high pollution. The second prediction is that economic and environmental cycles may emerge, implying inequality between generations. These theoretical results are supported by empirical evidence and imply a role for government to steer the economy toward the desirable BGP and eliminate the cycles.

We explore how tax evasion by firms affects the growth- and welfare-maximizing rates of corporate income tax (CIT) in an endogenous growth model with productive public service. We show that the negative effect of CIT on growth is mitigated in the presence of tax evasion. This increases the benefit of raising the CIT rate for public service provision. Thus, in contrast to Barro [(1990) Journal of Political Economy 98, 103–125], the optimal tax rate is higher than the output elasticity of public service. Through numerical exercises, we demonstrate that the role of tax evasion by firms is quantitatively significant.

Most emerging economies have been affected to some degree by the Fed’s quantitative easing (QE) policies. This paper assesses the impact of these measures in terms of key macroeconomic variables for four inflation-targeting small open economies in Latin America. We identify a QE policy shock in a structural vector autoregressive with block exogeneity and a mixture of zero and sign restrictions. Overall, we find that these QE policies have significant effects on financial variables such as the exchange rate, and these effects are larger with respect to those in output and prices. Furthermore, the effects vary across countries, and these are more significant in Chile and Mexico than in Peru and Colombia.

The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) driven by unit labor costs has been criticized for failing to match inflation dynamics and for failing to explain the duration of price contracts. This paper extends recent attempts in the literature to improve the fit of the NKPC, by introducing a fuller marginal cost proxy, unit total costs, that is derived from both labor and nonlabor unit costs; the latter include capital-related costs and production taxes. Borrowing costs are examined separately, as in the cost channel literature. Unit total costs are shown to improve the fit of the short-run variation in inflation and strengthen the empirical support for the role of expectations-based inflation persistence. They also imply a duration of fixed nominal contracts that is closer to those suggested by firm-level surveys. The cost channel becomes relatively less important when unit total costs, rather than unit labor costs, are used as a marginal cost proxy.

This paper analyzes the effects of technological risk on long-run growth when labor supply is elastic and production gives rise to a pollution externality. We show that the randomness of production, as well as the endogeneity of labor supply, affects the equilibrium solutions for the social planner and for the market economy. We analyze the effects of environmental policy, discuss conditions for an optimal policy, and find that the response of labor supply to changes in the model parameters and to variations in the policy instruments crucially depends on the volatility of output.

This article presents a solution algorithm for linear rational expectation models under imperfect information, in which some decisions are made based on smaller information sets than others. In our solution representation, imperfect information does not affect the coefficients on crawling variables, which implies that, if a perfect-information model exhibits saddle-path stability, for example, the corresponding imperfect-information models also exhibit saddle-path stability. However, imperfect information can significantly alter the quantitative properties of a model. Indeed, this article demonstrates that, with a predetermined wage contract, the standard RBC model remarkably improves the correlation between labor productivity and output.

Habit formation is a fixture of contemporary new Keynesian models. The vast majority assume that agents form habits strictly over consumption of an aggregate good, leaving open the question of whether it might be preferable to have them form habits over differentiated products instead–an arrangement known as deep habits. I answer this question by estimating a model that nests both habit concepts as special cases. Estimates reveal that the data favor a specification in which consumption habits are stronger at the product level than at the aggregate level. A mix of significance tests and simulation results indicate that including deep habits greatly improves model fit, most notably with regard to inflation dynamics.

Macroeconomics is at a crossroads. The call of real science is drawing it forward to a degree that is without precedent in the history of the field. But the field's origins are related to the exceptional policy relevance of macroeconomics, and the field continues to be pressed for answers to difficult policy problems that sometimes are beyond the current capabilities of the field. Continuing tensions exist between policy demands and the constraints of systematic, rigorous scientific development. A commonly mentioned example is the increasing size of structural macroeconometric models. While highly regarded in many governments, those massive models are greeted with skepticism by the best economics journals.