Under some relaxed conditions, in this paper we obtain some equivalent conditions on the asymptotics of the density of the supremum of a random walk with heavy-tailed increments. To do this, we investigate the asymptotics of the first ascending ladder height of a random walk with heavy-tailed increments. The results obtained improve and extend the corresponding classical results.

The small-world phenomenon, the principle that we are all linked by a short chain of intermediate acquaintances, has been investigated in mathematics and social sciences. It has been shown to be pervasive both in nature and in engineering systems like the World Wide Web. Work of Jon Kleinberg has shown that people, using only local information, are very effective at finding short paths in a network of social contacts. In this paper we argue that the underlying key to finding short paths is scale invariance. In order to appreciate scale invariance we suggest a continuum setting, since true scale invariance happens at all scales, something which cannot be observed in a discrete model. We introduce a random-connection model that is related to continuum percolation, and we prove the existence of a unique scale-free model, among a large class of models, that allows the construction, with high probability, of short paths between pairs of points separated by any distance.

We consider a system of parallel, finite tandem queues with loss. Each tandem queue consists of two single-server queues in series, with capacities C1 and C2 and exponential service times with rates μ1 and μ2 for the first and second queues, respectively. Customers that arrive at a queue that is full are lost. Customers arriving at the system can choose which tandem queue to enter. We show that, for customers choosing a queue to maximise the probability of their reaching the destination (or minimise their individual loss probability), it will sometimes be optimal to choose queues with more customers already present and/or with greater residual service requirements (where preceding customers are further from their final destination).

In this short note we show how new fluctuation identities and their associated asymptotics, given in Vigon (2002), Klüppelberg et al. (2004) and Doney and Kyprianou (2006), provide the basis for establishing, in an elementary way, asymptotic overshoot and undershoot distribitions for a general class of Lévy insurance risk processes. The results bring the earlier conclusions of Asmussen and Klüppelberg (1996) for the Cramér-Lundberg process into greater generality.

Let S1 and S2 be two signals of a random variable X, where G1(s1 ∣ x) and G2(s2 ∣ x) are their conditional distributions given X = x. If, for all s1 and s2, G1(s1 ∣ x) - G2(s2 ∣ x) changes sign at most once from negative to positive as x increases, then the conditional expectation of X given S1 is greater than the conditional expectation of X given S2 in the convex order, provided that both conditional expectations are increasing. The stochastic order of the sufficient condition is equivalent to the more stochastically increasing order when S1 and S2 have the same marginal distribution and, when S1 and S2 are sums of X and independent noises, it is equivalent to the dispersive order of the noises.

We obtain an expression for the correlation of the maxima of two correlated Brownian motions.

We give conditions under which the number of events which occur in a sequence of m-dependent events is stochastically smaller than a suitably defined compound Poisson random variable. The results are applied to counts of sequence pattern appearances and to system reliability. We also provide a numerical example.

This note introduces shape orderings for stationary time series autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions and explores some of their convergence rate ramifications. The shapes explored include decreasing hazard rate and new better than used, orderings that are familiar from stochastic processes settings. Time series models where these shapes arise are presented. The shapes are used to obtain explicit geometric convergence rates for mean squared errors of one-step-ahead forecasts.

Random fields on , with long-range weak dependence for each coordinate individually, usually present clustering of high values. For each one of the eight directions in , we formulate restriction conditions on local occurrence of two or more crossings of high levels. These smooth oscillation conditions enable computation of the extremal index as a clustering measure from the limiting mean number of crossings. In fact, only four directions must be inspected since for opposite directions we find the same local path crossing behaviour and the same limiting mean number of crossings. The general theory is illustrated with several 1-dependent nonstationary random fields.

We provide a simple set of sufficient conditions for the weak convergence of discrete-time, discrete-state Galton-Watson branching processes with immigration to continuous-time, continuous-state branching processes with immigration.

The mathematical model we consider here is a decomposable Galton-Watson process with individuals of two types, 0 and 1. Individuals of type 0 are supercritical and can only produce individuals of type 0, whereas individuals of type 1 are subcritical and can produce individuals of both types. The aim of this paper is to study the properties of the waiting time to escape, i.e. the time it takes to produce a type-0 individual that escapes extinction when the process starts with a type-1 individual. With a view towards applications, we provide examples of populations in biological and medical contexts that can be suitably modeled by such processes.

This paper establishes new Foster-type criteria for a Markov chain on a general state space to be Harris recurrent, positive Harris recurrent, or geometrically ergodic. The criteria are based on drift conditions involving stopping times rather than deterministic steps. Meyn and Tweedie (1994) developed similar criteria involving random-sized steps, independent of the Markov chain under study. They also posed an open problem of finding criteria involving stopping times. Our results essentially solve that problem. We also show that the assumption of ψ-irreducibility is not needed when stating our drift conditions for positive Harris recurrence or geometric ergodicity.

We exhibit a scaling law for the critical SIS stochastic epidemic. If at time 0 the population consists of infected and susceptible individuals, then when the time and the number currently infected are both scaled by , the resulting process converges, as N → ∞, to a diffusion process related to the Feller diffusion by a change of drift. As a consequence, the rescaled size of the epidemic has a limit law that coincides with that of a first passage time for the standard Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. These results are the analogs for the SIS epidemic of results of Martin-Löf (1998) and Aldous (1997) for the simple SIR epidemic.

In a G/GI/c loss system with balking, reneging, or limited waiting space, deleting some of the arriving customers can either increase or decrease the fraction of the remaining arrivals who get served, depending on how customers are deleted. We present a model in which the random deletion of arrivals independently and with some fixed probability can never decrease the fraction of the remaining arrivals who get served.

We describe a search problem that has arisen in the context of network monitoring. Abstractly, a known (very large) region may contain one or more ‘agents’. Starting with just one agent, we search until another agent is found; this new agent can assist in the remaining search, and so on recursively.