The Daniels' Poisson limit theorem for the final size of a severe general stochastic epidemic is extended to the Martin-Löf epidemic, and an order of magnitude for the error in the approximation is also given. The argument consists largely of showing that the number of survivors of a severe epidemic is essentially the same as the number of isolated vertices in a random directed graph. Poisson approximation for the latter quantity is proved using the Stein–Chen method and a suitable coupling.

Recently, the properties of ESSs for random payoff matrices, and stable polymorphisms for random fitness matrices, have been investigated. These problems are very closely related, and some similarities and differences are examined here. In contrast to some earlier work, non-robustness of the conclusions, to changes in the distribution of the random matrices, are found in two areas: in the asymptotic number of polymorphisms (or ESSs) whose support is a given size, and in the location of a polymorphism (or ESS) whose size of support is 2 or 3, in a large matrix.

A correlated random walk in the plane is studied for which the direction of a step depends on the direction of the previous step. Both step direction and step length are continuous random variables. Such a random walk has been used to model the vegetative dispersal of certain plant populations. The analysis provides general conclusions about dependencies on parameters, an efficient scheme for generating numerical results, and testable predictions for plant populations.

We study the number of mutants in a mutation process in which reverse mutation is allowed and in which both normal and mutant organisms reproduce at the same rate. Under a mild side condition on the rate of forward mutation we find necessary and sufficient conditions for the number of mutants to converge in distribution. We find the probability generating function of the limit distribution, when it exists. We present an example which shows that the mild side condition cannot be relaxed.

Suppose that a certain population consists of N individuals. One member initially learns a rumour from an outside source, and starts telling it to other members, who continue spreading the information. A knower becomes inactive once he encounters somebody already informed. Daley and Kendall, who initiated the study of this model, conjectured that the number of eventual knowers is asymptotically normal with mean and variance linear in N. Our purpose is to confirm this conjecture.

The paper re-examines Quinn and MacGillivray's (1986) stationary birth-death process for a population of fixed size N consisting of two types of parasite, active and passive, and sets up a more elaborate model for the dichotomy between parasites on hosts with and without open wounds resulting from previous parasite attacks. The probability generating functions for the stationary count distributions are obtained, allowing limiting forms of the distributions to be investigated.

In this paper we provide two basic results. First, we find the set of all the limiting vectors of expectations, variances and covariances in an NHMS which are possible provided that we control the limit vector of the sequence of vectors of input probabilities. Secondly, under certain conditions easily met in practice we find the distribution of the limiting vector of expectations, variances and covariances to be multinomial with probabilities the corresponding limiting expected populations in the various states of the NHMS.

For each n > 0, the Ewens sampling formula from population genetics is a measure on the set of all partitions of the integer n. To determine the limiting distributions for the part sizes of a partition with respect to the measures given by this formula, we associate to each partition a step function on [0, 1]. Each jump in the function equals the number of parts in the partition of a certain size. We normalize these functions and show that the induced measures on D[0, 1] converge to Wiener measure. This result complements Kingman's frequency limit theorem [10] for the Ewens partition structure.

Recently, Ball and Donnelly (1987) investigated the nature of the interparticle dependence in a death process with non-linear rates. In this note, after some remarks on their result, a similar problem is examined for a linear death process where the death rate per particle is a monotone function of the current state of a random environment. It is proved that if the exterior process involved is a homogeneous birth-and-death process valued in ℕ, then the survival times of any subset of particles are positively upper orthant dependent. A simple example shows that this property is not valid for general exterior processes.

Nearest-neighbour Markov point processes were introduced by Baddeley and Møller (1989) as generalizations of the Markov point processes of Ripley and Kelly. This note formulates and discusses a spatial Markov property for these point processes.

For Brownian motion on a convex polyhedral subset of a sphere or torus, the rate of convergence in distribution to uniformity is studied. The main result is a method to take a Markov coupling on the full sphere or torus and create a faster coupling on the convex polyhedral subset. Upper bounds on variation distance are computed, and applications are discussed.

An ergodic L2-theorem for inhomogeneous Markov chains covering simulated annealing with or without constraints and stochastic relaxation with or without constraints arising in Bayesian image reconstruction is proved. The derivation is self-contained.

Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo simulation technique in which the simulation distribution is different from the true underlying distribution. In order to obtain an unbiased Monte Carlo estimate of the desired parameter, simulated events are weighted to reflect their true relative frequency. In this paper, we consider the estimation via simulation of certain large deviations probabilities for time-homogeneous Markov chains. We first demonstrate that when the simulation distribution is also a homogeneous Markov chain, the estimator variance will vanish exponentially as the sample size n tends to∞. We then prove that the estimator variance is asymptotically minimized by the same exponentially twisted Markov chain which arises in large deviation theory, and furthermore, this optimization is unique among uniformly recurrent homogeneous Markov chain simulation distributions.

Points start to form on an ‘uncovered' unit interval according to a Poisson process with parameter λ. From newly formed points a covering region grows in both directions at velocity v, while new points continue to form on uncovered parts of the interval. Eventually the whole interval will be covered. Let N ≧ 1 denote the total number of points formed. We derive integral expressions for E(N) and Var(N) and give precise asymptotic expressions for these moments as ρ = λ/v →∞. Asymptotic normality of N is also established.

We study the shape of the binary tree containing 0 that is created from percolation of coalescing random walks. The key result is a duality lemma describing the shape of the tree. Furthermore, we show that and where A(R0), M(R0), L(R0) are respectively the area, the number of external nodes and the length of the longest path of the tree R0.

We consider the equivalence of state probabilities of a general stationary process at an arbitrary time and at embedded epochs of a given point process, which is called ASTA (Arrivals See Time Averages). By using an event-conditonal intensity, we give necessary and sufficient conditions for ASTA for a large class of state sets, which determines a state distribution. We do not need any additional assumptions except that the general process has left-hand limits at all points of time. Especially, for a stationary pure-jump process with a point process, ASTA is obtained for all state sets. As an application of those results, Anti-PASTA is obtained for a pure-jump Markov process and a certain class of GSMP (Generalized Semi-Markov Processes), where Anti-PASTA means that ASTA implies that the arrival process is Poisson.

In this paper we show that the problem of existence and uniqueness of stationary distributions for piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDPs) is equivalent to the same problem for the associated Markov chain, so long as some mild conditions on the parameters of the PDP are satisfied. Our main result is the construction of an invertible mapping from the set of stationary distributions for the PDP to the set of stationary distributions for the Markov chain. Some sufficient conditions for existence are presented and an application to capacity expansion is given.

We construct Boltzmann processes using the formalism of random trees. We are then able to extend previous results about convergence toward the equilibrium law to interactions involving random numbers of particles. We even show a geometric rate of convergence for an extended class of processes, especially for those having a scaling invariant interaction mechanism.

We shall provide a classification of states for processes other than the Feller minimal process. In particular, we shall study the regularity, recurrence, transience, etc. of these processes. Our results are based on the observation that certain honest Q-processes exhibit regenerative behaviour. We shall also comment on the problem of determining stationary distributions directly from the transition rates.