We call `bits' a sequence of devices indexed by positive integers, where every device can be in two states: 0 (idle) and 1 (active). Start from the `ground state' of the system when all bits are in 0-state. In our first binary flipping (BF) model the evolution of the system behaves as follows. At each time step choose one bit from a given distribution P on the positive integers independently of anything else, then flip the state of this bit to the opposite state. In our second damaged bits (DB) model a `damaged' state is added: each selected idling bit changes to active, but selecting an active bit changes its state to damaged in which it then stays forever. In both models we analyse the recurrence of the system's ground state when no bits are active. We present sufficient conditions for both the BF and DB models to show recurrent or transient behaviour, depending on the properties of the distribution P. We provide a bound for fractional moments of the return time to the ground state for the BF model, and prove a central limit theorem for the number of active bits for both models.

The no restart random walk (NRRW) is a random network growth model driven by a random walk that builds the graph while moving on it, adding and connecting a new leaf node to the current position of the walker every s steps. We show a fundamental dichotomy in NRRW with respect to the parity of s: for ${s}=1$ we prove that the random walk is transient and non-leaf nodes have degrees bounded above by an exponential distribution; for s even we prove that the random walk is recurrent and non-leaf nodes have degrees bounded below by a power law distribution. These theoretical findings highlight and confirm the diverse and rich behaviour of NRRW observed empirically.

We investigate conditions in order to decide whether a given sequence of real numbers represents expected maxima or expected ranges. The main result provides a novel necessary and sufficient condition, relating an expected maxima sequence to a translation of a Bernstein function through its Lévy–Khintchine representation.

Asymptotic expansions are obtained for the distribution function of a studentized estimator of the offspring mean sequence in an array branching process with immigration. The expansion result is shown to hold in a test function topology. As an application of this result, it is shown that the bootstrapping distribution of the estimator of the offspring mean in a sub-critical branching process with immigration also admits the same expansion (in probability). From these considerations, it is concluded that the bootstrapping distribution provides a better approximation asymptotically than the normal distribution.

We prove concentration inequality results for geometric graph properties of an instance of the Cooper–Frieze [5] preferential attachment model with edge-steps. More precisely, we investigate a random graph model that at each time $t\in \mathbb{N}$ , with probability p adds a new vertex to the graph (a vertex-step occurs) or with probability $1-p$ an edge connecting two existent vertices is added (an edge-step occurs). We prove concentration results for the global clustering coefficient as well as the clique number. More formally, we prove that the global clustering, with high probability, decays as $t^{-\gamma(p)}$ for a positive function $\gamma$ of p, whereas the clique number of these graphs is, up to subpolynomially small factors, of order $t^{(1-p)/(2-p)}$ .

A family of distribution-free statistics along with related tests is defined and properties of its members are studied. These statistics, one of which is the Smirnov-Wald and Wolfowitz statistic, Dn+ yield tests of the one-sided hypotheses. The minimax and maximin tests in this family against a restricted class of alternatives of minimum power are obtained. The connection to a confidence bound of Stringer for the mean is also remarked.

It is well known and readily seen that the maximum of n independent and uniformly on [0, 1] distributed random variables, suitably standardised, converges in total variation distance, as n increases, to the standard negative exponential distribution. We extend this result to higher dimensions by considering copulas. We show that the strong convergence result holds for copulas that are in a differential neighbourhood of a multivariate generalised Pareto copula. Sklar’s theorem then implies convergence in variational distance of the maximum of n independent and identically distributed random vectors with arbitrary common distribution function and (under conditions on the marginals) of its appropriately normalised version. We illustrate how these convergence results can be exploited to establish the almost-sure consistency of some estimation procedures for max-stable models, using sample maxima.

Two non-identical units are to be issued sequentially. The optimal policy determines the issuing sequence which maximizes the expected lifetime of the pair of units. The units each have non-decreasing hazard rates which depend on whether the unit is in service or in storage. Sufficient conditions are obtained for optimal issuing policies in a variety of examples.

Taylor’s power law (or fluctuation scaling) states that on comparable populations, the variance of each sample is approximately proportional to a power of the mean of the population. The law has been shown to hold by empirical observations in a broad class of disciplines including demography, biology, economics, physics, and mathematics. In particular, it has been observed in problems involving population dynamics, market trading, thermodynamics, and number theory. In applications, many authors consider panel data in order to obtain laws of large numbers. Essentially, we aim to consider ergodic behaviors without independence. We restrict our study to stationary time series, and develop different Taylor exponents in this setting. From a theoretical point of view, there has been a growing interest in the study of the behavior of such a phenomenon. Most of these works focused on the so-called static Taylor’s law related to independent samples. In this paper we introduce a dynamic Taylor’s law for dependent samples using self-normalized expressions involving Bernstein blocks. A central limit theorem (CLT) is proved under either weak dependence or strong mixing assumptions for the marginal process. The limit behavior of the estimation involves a series of covariances, unlike the classic framework where the limit behavior involves the marginal variance. We also provide an asymptotic result for a goodness-of-fit procedure suitable for checking whether the corresponding dynamic Taylor’s law holds in empirical studies.

We consider a multiclass single-server queueing network as a model of a packet switching network. The rates packets are sent into this network are controlled by queues which act as congestion windows. By considering a sequence of congestion controls, we analyse a sequence of stationary queueing networks. In this asymptotic regime, the service capacity of the network remains constant and the sequence of congestion controllers act to exploit the network's capacity by increasing the number of packets within the network. We show that the stationary throughput of routes on this sequence of networks converges to an allocation that maximises aggregate utility subject to the network's capacity constraints. To perform this analysis, we require that our utility functions satisfy an exponential concavity condition. This family of utilities includes weighted α-fair utilities for α > 1.

The asymptotic variance of the sample mean of a homogeneous Poisson marked point process has been studied in the literature, but confusion has arisen as to the correct expression due to some technical intricacies. This note sets the record straight with regards to the variance of the sample mean. In addition, a central limit theorem in the general d-dimensional case is also established.

Based on pathwise duality constructions, several new results on truncated queues and storage systems of the G/M/1 type are derived by transforming the workload (content) processes into certain ‘dual’ M/G/1-type processes. We consider queueing systems in which (a) any service requirement that would increase the total workload beyond the capacity is truncated so as to keep the associated sojourn time below a certain constant, or (b) new arrivals do not enter the system if they have to wait more than one time unit in line. For these systems, we derive the steady-state distributions of the workload and the numbers of customers present in the systems as well as the distributions of the lengths of busy and idle periods. Moreover, we use the duality approach to study finite capacity storage systems with general state-dependent outflow rates. Here our duality leads to a Markovian finite storage system with state-dependent jump sizes whose content level process can be analyzed using level crossing techniques. We also derive a connection between the steady-state densities of the non-Markovian continuous-time content level process of the G/M/1 finite storage system with state-dependent outflow rule and the corresponding embedded sequence of peak points (local maxima).

We specify a model for a catastrophe loss index, where the initial estimate of each catastrophe loss is reestimated immediately by a positive martingale starting from the random time of loss occurrence. We consider the pricing of catastrophe insurance options written on the loss index and obtain option pricing formulae by applying Fourier transform techniques. An important advantage is that our methodology works for loss distributions with heavy tails, which is the appropriate tail behavior for catastrophe modeling. We also discuss the case when the reestimation factors are given by positive affine martingales and provide a characterization of positive affine local martingales.

Consider a well-shuffled deck of cards of n different types where each type occurs m times. In a complete feedback game, a player is asked to guess the top card from the deck. After each guess, the top card is revealed to the player and is removed from the deck. The total number of correct guesses in a complete feedback game has attracted significant interest in the past few decades. Under different regimes of m, n, the expected number of correct guesses, under the greedy (optimal) strategy, has been obtained by various authors, while there are not many results available about the fluctuations. In this paper we establish a central limit theorem with Berry–Esseen bounds when m is fixed and n is large. Our results extend to the case of decks where different types may have different multiplicity, under suitable assumptions.

The forward equations for the death process in ℕ2 with Q-matrix determined by q(i, j; i − 1, j) = αij, i ≧ 1, q(i, j; i, j − 1) = μj, j ≧ 1 are solved by giving a special interpretation to this Q-matrix.

This paper is concerned with the correlation structure of a stationary discrete time-series with long memory or long-range dependence. Given a sequence of bounded variation, we obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for a function generated from the sequence to be a proper correlation function. These conditions are applied to derive various slowly decaying correlation models. To obtain correlation models with short-range dependence from an absolutely summable sequence, a simple method is introduced.

In this paper the distributions of the number of intersections of three, four and five random chords to a circle are obtained by a reduction technique employing Ptolemy's theorem. These results are then used to obtain the skewness and kurtosis of the number of intersections of n random chords to a circle.

In clinical trials with two treatment arms, Efron's biased coin design, Efron (1971), sequentially assigns a patient to the underrepresented arm with probability p > ½. Under this design the proportion of patients in any arm converges to ½, and the convergence rate is n-1, as opposed to n-½ under some other popular designs. The generalization of Efron's design to K ≥ 2 arms and an unequal target allocation ratio (q1, . . ., qK) can be found in some papers, most of which determine the allocation probabilities ps in a heuristic way. Nonetheless, it has been noted that by using inappropriate ps, the proportion of patients in the K arms never converges to the target ratio. We develop a general theory to answer the question of what allocation probabilities ensure that the realized proportions under a generalized design still converge to the target ratio (q1, . . ., qK) with rate n-1.

In this paper we study the assignment of packets to M parallel heterogeneous servers with no buffers. The controller does not have knowledge on the state of the servers and bases all decisions on the number of time slots ago that packets have been sent to the different servers. The objective of the controller is to minimize the expected average cost. We consider a general stationary arrival process, with no independence assumptions. We show that the problem can be transformed into a Markov Decision Process (MDP). We further show under quite general conditions on cost functions that only a finite number of states have to be considered in this MDP, which then implies the optimality of periodic policies. For the case of two servers we obtain a more detailed structure of the cost and optimal policies. In particular we show that the average cost function is multimodular, and we obtain expressions for the cost for MMPP and MAP processes. Finally we present an application to optimal robot scheduling for Web search engines.