We consider a birth, death and catastrophe process where the transition rates are allowed to depend on the population size. We obtain an explicit expression for the expected time to extinction, which is valid in all cases where extinction occurs with probability 1.

We obtain the long-time behaviour to the variance of the distribution process associated with the solution of the telegraph equation. To this end, we use a version of the Karamata-Feller Tauberian theorem.

It is shown that a Galton-Watson process in varying environment, unlike a classical Galton-Watson process, can have an infinite (though at most countable) number of distinct rates of growth.

Size-biased permutation (SBP) is a random arrangement of frequencies of distinct categories in the order in which the categories appear for the first time in the sampling process. We study the conditions under which the SBPs converge in distribution and discuss extended versions of SBP for the case when the sum of positive frequencies is less than 1.

In this paper a bisexual Moran model is introduced. The population consists of N pairs of individuals. At times t = 1, 2, ·· ·two individuals are born, who ‘choose their parents randomly' and independently of each other. Then one of the pairs is removed and replaced by the two individuals born at that instant.

The extinction probability of the descendants of a single pair and the number of ancestors of a whole generation are studied. A limit result for large population sizes has been derived by diffusion approximation methods.

We obtain a necessary and sufficient condition for the interaction between a service system and an external environment under which the stationary joint distribution of the set of busy channels and the state of the external environment is given by a product-form formula.

We derive conditions under which the increments of a vector process are associated — i.e. under which all pairs of increasing functions of the increments are positively correlated. The process itself is associated if it is generated by a family of associated and monotone kernels. We show that the increments are associated if the kernels are associated and, in a suitable sense, convex. In the Markov case, we note a connection between associated increments and temporal stochastic convexity.

Our analysis is motivated by a question in variance reduction: assuming that a normalized process and its normalized compensator converge to the same value, which is the better estimator of that limit? Under some additional hypotheses we show that, for processes with conditionally associated increments, the compensator has smaller asymptotic variance.

In this paper we use the properties of the covariance matrix of a Gaussian Markovian family to give a probabilistic proof of a theorem about inverses of tridiagonal matrices.

We consider a storage/production process where the production rate is state dependent, the demand arrival is a renewal process, and the sizes of the demands are i.i.d exponentially distributed random variables. The resulting content process is non-Markovian but regenerative. We construct a dual Markovian dam process with drift, jump rate and jump sizes that are state dependent and use it to compute the limiting one-dimensional distribution of the content process.

Let {Nt}t >0 be a renewal counting process (cf. Parzen (1962), p. 160) with underlying failure times let be a sequence of non-negative random variables and {Zt}t >0 an associated cumulative process, i.e. if Nt = 1, 2, …, and Zt = 0, if Nt = 0. By convention set Z0 = 0. Consider the maximum increment of the process {Zt}t >0 in [0, T] over a time K, 0 < K < T, divided by K. Under appropriate conditions it is shown that for a wide range of numbers a there exist constants C(a), uniquely determined by a and the distributions of the Xi's and Yj's, such that D(T, C log T) converges to a with probability 1. This result provides a renewal theoretic variant of Erdös and Rényi's (1970) ‘new law of large numbers’.

We develop a technique for establishing statistical tests with precise confidence levels for upper bounds on the critical probability in oriented percolation. We use it to give pc < 0.647 with a 99.999967% confidence. As Monte Carlo simulations suggest that pc ≈ 0.6445, this bound is fairly tight.

The resolution of the optimal stopping problem for a partially observed Markov state process reduces to the computation of a function — the Snell envelope — defined on a measure space which is in general infinite-dimensional. To avoid these computational difficulties, we propose in this paper to approximate the optimal stopping time as the limit of times associated to similar problems for a sequence of processes converging towards the true state. We show on two examples that these approximating states can be chosen such that the Snell envelopes can be explicitly computed.

In this paper a necessary and sufficient condition for the dispersive ordering in dilation sense is given by a convex function which is called the dispersive function and characterizes the distribution function. Some interesting properties of the ordering follow from this result.

We consider two models for the reliability of a series system of components with spares, serviced by a single service facility. Replacement of failed components by a spare has pre-emptive priority over repair of the failed components; the models differ in whether interrupted repairs resume from where they left off, or restart from the beginning. We find the availability of such systems: numerical results indicate that this is insensitive to the shape of the repair-time and replacement-time distributions. We also obtain the distribution of system downtime for these models.

This paper uses the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) point process model to study certain seismicity features of the Jiashi swarm of certain earthquakes, investigating in particular whether there is relative quiescence prior to the quite big events within the Jiashi sequence. The seven earthquake sequences studied occurred in the region of Jiashi, south of Tianshan Mountain, Xinjiang, China. The particular ETAS model that is developed is consistent with the reality of seismic activity. The various features of Jiashi swarm activity can be described as focusing in different stages. There is obvious precursory quiescence prior to most big events with Ms ≥ 6.0 within the Jiashi swarm. Thus, checking for relative quiescence can be use for earthquake prediction.

This paper is concerned with the distribution of “types” of individuals in an infinite population after indefinitely many nonoverlapping generations of random mating. The absence of selection and mutation is assumed. The probabilistic law which governs the production of an offspring may be asymmetrical with respect to the “sexes” of the two parents, but the law is assumed to apply independently of the “sex” of the offspring. The question of the existence of a limit distribution of types, the rate at which a limit distribution is approached, and properties of limit distributions are treated.

Recently, Elmes et al. (see [2]) proposed a definition of a quasistationary distribution to accommodate absorbing Markov chains for which absorption occurs with probability less than 1. We will show that the probabilistic interpretation pertaining to cases where absorption is certain (see [13]) does not hold in the present context. We prove that the state probabilities at time t conditional on absorption taking place after t, generally depend on t. Conditions are derived under which there is no initial distribution such that the conditional state probabilities are stationary.

We describe two chain-transformations which explain and extend identities for order statistics and quantiles proved by Wendel, Port and, more recently, by Dassios.

For random variables with values on binary metric trees, the definition of the expected value can be generalized to the notion of a barycenter. To estimate the barycenter from tree-valued data, the so-called inductive mean is constructed recursively using the weighted interpolation between the current mean and a new data point. We show the strong consistency of the inductive mean, but also that it, somewhat peculiarly, converges towards the true barycenter with different rates, and asymptotic distributions depending on the small variations of the underlying distribution.

We consider the point process i + τi (i = 0, ± 1, ± 2, . . .), where the τi(assumed for convenience to be positive) are independent random samples from the same distribution. We define an inter-arrival interval as the stretch between neighbouring events, which need not belong to successive values of i, because of the jumbling of position occasioned by the variability of the τ. We obtain explicit expressions for the distribution of inter-arrival intervals in general, as well as the correlation coefficient between successive inter-arrival intervals in the case where the τ are exponentially distributed.