A previous study showed that imposing economic restrictions improves the forecasting ability of food demand systems, thus warranting their use even when they are rejected in-sample. This article evaluates whether this result is due to economic restrictions enhancing degrees of freedom or containing nonsample information. Results indicate that restrictions improve forecasting ability even when they are not derived from economic theory, but theoretical restrictions forecast best.

Using advanced methods of directed acyclic graphs with Bernanke structural vector autoregression models, this article extends recent econometric research on quarterly U.S. markets for wheat and wheat-based value-added products downstream. Analyses of impulse response simulations and forecast error variance decompositions provide updated estimates of market elasticity parameters that drive these markets, and updated policy-relevant information on how these quarterly markets run and dynamically interact. Results suggest that movements in wheat and downstream wheat-based markets strongly influence each other, although most of these effects occur at the longer-run horizons beyond a single crop cycle.

Regulatory changes by federal and state agencies portend a switch from nitrogen-based livestock manure disposal policies to phosphorus-based policies. This paper estimates the compliance costs of such a policy change for a hypothetical hog-grain farm in North Central Indiana. The farm includes 1,500 acres of cropland and has the capacity to raise 11,970 grow-finish hogs annually. The farm model also has the potential to produce four different crops on six different land types. A nonlinear math-programming model was developed to determine the optimal mix of management activities for a phosphorus-based regulation. The model allows mitigation of compliance costs via the choice between four different pig diets, three alternative methods of manure disposal, changes in timing of manure application, and crop pattern adjustments. This analysis concludes that the new regulation will result in a decrease in whole-farm returns above variable costs, the use of phytase enzyme in pig diets, and an increase in wheat acreage. The model also reveals that it is optimal for the farmer to hire a custom hauler to assist in application of manure in an effort to reduce the degree to which available field days constrain farming activities and land application of manure. The estimated cost to the farmer, as a result of the policy change, ranges between $0.56 and $21.74 per unit of pig production capacity.

Technical regulations are increasingly visible in agricultural trade, yet their idiosyncratic nature has limited prior aggregate analysis. This article draws on a unique data source for systematic enumeration of the technical regulations questioned by one exporter among all of its trading partners in mid-1996. Political economy analysis indicates that barriers decrease when the relative contribution of agriculture to an economy increases, when the anticipated future level of protection through other forms of government intervention increases, and when economies are more open. Despite increased scrutiny and discipline by the World Trade Organization, technical barriers remain a significant impediment in world agricultural markets.

It is indeed a pleasure to be standing here today addressing you as your president. When Bill Park called me to ask whether I would run for president of the Southern Agricultural Economics Association (SAEA), I said yes. He said, “don't you want a day or two to think about it?” I said, “Bill, I have been in this profession for 27 years; I do not want to wait another 27 years for the opportunity. You can do the math.”

Hog farmers' preferences for autonomy are assessed through the use of eight questions dealing with their preferences for general decision making and with respect to specific management actions. Farmers generally preferred to make a higher percentage of the decisions about their operations, especially older producers and those who operated farrowing units. Farmers who placed lower values on autonomy finished hogs, were nearing retirement, valued social relationships with other farmers more highly, had higher off-farm income, or were larger farmers.

An important aspect of structural change in the U.S. hog industry has been the adoption of breeding technology. The adoption of each of four breeding technologies, weekly farrowing, intensive breeding, terminal crossbreeding, and artificial insemination, in U.S. hog production is analyzed using multivariate probit analysis. Results suggest that diversification, whether the producer raised breeding stock, debt and asset levels, and producer's education influence adoption rate. Larger, more risk-averse producers were more likely to adopt technology. Producers who rated the quality of labor available as higher were more likely to adopt management-intensive technologies.

This paper examines the linkages among agricultural total factor productivity, farm size, and farm household participation in the off-farm labor market for the Southeastern states for the period 1960-1996. We find evidence of a simultaneous relationship between productivity and measures of farm structure. The results support the expected relationships between the endogenous variables, namely that productivity and farm size are positively related, farm size and off-farm work participation are negatively related, and off-farm work and productivity are negatively related. We find positive and significant impacts of government policies (investments in public research, extension, and highways) on productivity growth.

This paper reports import demand elasticities for environmental goods and services (EGS) for the world in aggregate and for six world regions. The paper involves a pooled cross-section and time-series estimation procedure and makes per capita demand for EGS a function of economic, political, and structural factors. The results show that per capita incomes, exchange rates, political and economic freedoms, and debt affect the demand for EGS. The results also show that demand for EGS is tied to the particular environmental problem facing a particular region. Exporters of EGS need to disaggregate world markets to better target products.

Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) are point sources of pollution and require Clean Water Act permits. The 2003 regulations allow Large CAFOs to propose alternative performance standards (APS) that offer equivalent or better environmental performance than the baseline technology. Principal obstacles to APS success include the complexities of demonstrating superior performance, cost uncertainties for obtaining approval, CAFO risks of participation, inter- and intra-organizational barriers of permitting agencies, and potential lawsuits brought by environmental groups. Despite obstacles, APS offers potential for technology innovations and reduced environmental compliance costs.

Meta-analysis is used to quantitatively summarize previous studies of residential electricity demand to determine if there are factors that systematically affect estimated elasticities. In this study, price and income elasticities of residential demand for electricity from previous studies are used as the dependent variables, with data characteristics, model structure, and estimation technique as independent variables, using both least square estimation of a semilog model and maximum likelihood estimation of a gamma model. The findings of this research can help better inform public policy makers, regulators, and utilities about the responsiveness of residential electricity consumers to price and income changes.

Conditional efficiency or forecast encompassing is tested among alternative pork production forecasts using the method proposed by Harvey and Newbold. One-, two-, and three-quarter ahead pork production forecasts made by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the University of Illinois and Purdue University Cooperative Extension Service, and those produced by a univariate time series model are evaluated. The encompassing tests provide considerably more information about forecast performance than a simple pair-wise test for equality of mean squared errors. The results suggest that at a one-quarter horizon, the Extension service forecasts encompass the competitors, but at longer horizons, a composite forecast may provide greater accuracy.

Because of excessive water impairment, federal and state agencies have enacted regulations to reduce water pollution from animal feeding operations. Many of the regulations are based on numbers of animals rather than the potential of an operator to impair water quality. To enhance efficiency, critical production indicators and location screening factors might be used to exempt operations that are not significantly impairing water quality. In this manner, regulations could avoid imposing unnecessary costs on the regulated public and more effectively target monitoring and enforcement resources of the regulatory agency.

We propose a market-based approach to reducing the environmental risk posed by concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs). The dual problems of hidden information and hidden action faced by policymakers are considered alongside the competing incentives faced by the CAFO manager in a multiple principal-agent setting. A new approach that uses insurance-like contracts is introduced by use of the specific example of a swine operation with a lagoon-based manure management system. Index-based contingent claims contracts in tandem with third-party auditing and waste hauling options are introduced as a complement to regulatory frameworks designed to reduce negative externalities from production.

The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) takes cropland out of production for 10 years, reducing grain supplies available to elevators. Results suggest that the program has negatively impacted elevator merchandising margins, but that elevators adjusted rather quickly to CRP changes, making most of the adjustment within 1 year. The reduction in margins reflects an element of pressure on agribusinesses that has not been measured in previous studies.

We use Kriström's simple spike model to assess the factors influencing consumers' willingness to pay a premium for a variety of certified wood products. A survey of over 1,600 Pennsylvania and Tennessee residents found that approximately 35% were willing to pay some positive “premium” for environmentally certified wood products. For three types of wood products (a $28.80 shelf, a $199 chair, and a $799 table), we find the estimated market premiums to be $3.74, $15.94, and $45.07, respectively.

Concentration in beef packing has risen dramatically in the past 25 years. We develop measures used to describe feedlot-packer relations: (1) a statistic based on the proportion of its sales a feedlot makes to a given packer, and (2) a measure of the switching behavior of feedlots. The measures are calculated using a confidential data set from the USDA Grain Inspection, Packers, and Stockyards Administration. Relationships are found to be both exclusive and stable. Causes for this rigidity are then examined using regression analysis. Transaction costs are shown to help explain why this market differs from a perfectly competitive one.

This paper discusses the three invited papers presented in the session titled “New Regulations Require New Solutions: Federal Provisions Governing Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations” (i.e., CAFOs). These papers provide an excellent review of current state and federal laws and an excellent summary of what has been and is currently being done with respect to CAFO regulation. The papers present three different policy approaches: i) alternative performance standards, ii) location-specific regulation, and iii) insurance-based underwriting of CAFO discharges. Each approach has its drawbacks; however, blending these suggested policies into current regulation would result in efficiency gains.