The organizers of this session asked me to do two things: to place policy modeling into the context of both general congressional policymaking and that of the 2002 Farm Bill and to comment on the three papers of the session.

Commodity models provide results that are useful for congressional decision making. Expected impacts of proposed policies on supply, demand, prices, and income are of interest to members of Congress. But decisions by policymakers depend on a variety of factors beyond model results, including professional backgrounds and perspectives, personal experiences, familiarity with proposed and alternative policies, views of key constituents, and ideologies. Many policy changes are incremental. So while model results are important to the policymaking process, they rarely are the key determinant as to why one proposed policy trumps another.

Managers of greenhouses, nurseries, and landscape contractors participated in five focus group discussions on labor-related risks. Managers conceptualize labor risks along the human resource management process: (1) recruitment and selection, (2) training and development, (3) performance evaluation and discipline, (4) careers and relationships, and (5) compensation packages. In addition, they identified (6) immigrant employees and (7) labor laws and regulations as sources of risk. They recognized a large number of risk-increasing attributes, but also a number of mediating strategies to reduce these risks.

A concern in the political economy is how national income is shared between labor and capital. This study evaluates long-term changes in factor income shares in three agri-food industries, their attribution to the level of factor usage or to factor compensation rates, and relation to changes in capital intensity and factor productivity. We find long-term stability in the profit and labor shares of farm income, decline in the profit share of agricultural services industry income, and increase in the profit share of food manufacturing income due to fewer productivity improvements being passed on to wage increases.

We attempt to value health risks by combining traditional demand impact analysis with direct elicitation of individuals' risk perceptions of food safety. We examine the impact of multiple risks of related goods on consumption of a risky good. We argue that the consumption of a risky good depends on both its absolute risk level and its relative risks to other risky goods. Seafood consumption in eastern North Carolina was studied. We elicited, in a survey, individual perceived risks as reference points to derive the economic value of reducing health risk in seafood consumption. Revealed and stated data were combined to trace out demand changes in response to absolute and relative risk reductions. Our results show that seafood consumption is affected by the perceived absolute risk and by the relative risk to poultry and that individuals react to the multiple risks in a nonlinear way, as was suggested by our analytical model.

Over $1.7 billion has been spent on the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) since 1985. The purpose of this study is to show that these expenditures have aided the environment. Rather than quantify changes in environmental variables, a spatial econometric model is used to test if CRP enrollments are greater in counties with poorer environmental quality. In seven of nine regions, CRP enrollments are higher in counties with an environmental concern. This positive finding justifies past expenditures by the CRP and supports continued funding as an environmental program. The CRP is targeting current environmental concerns that will lead to future improvement.

Recreational hunting has been an attractive enterprise for some ranchers who are interested in supplementing their income from cattle. Ranchland attributes—such as parcel size, tree cover, and proximity to urban centers—are expected to influence hunters' preferences and, thus, hunting lease payments. We estimated the effects of these attributes on hunting revenues using a hedonic model. The results reveal that trees and vegetation cover on ranchlands have a positive impact on hunting revenues, indicating opportunities for silvopasture practices. Those ranchers in Florida who maintain about 22% trees and other vegetation cover receive $16.15 per acre per year from hunting leases, but doubling the cover would generate only an additional $3.20 per acre per year.

This study examines the adoption of best-management practices (BMPs) in terms of the total number of practices implemented up to a certain period, using count data analysis. Poisson and negative binomial regressions were used to examine the likely determinants of producers' decisions to adopt greater numbers of technologies, and the specific case of dairy producers' adoption of BMPs was explored. Our results emphasize the significant effect of producers' awareness of the efforts to control non-point source pollution, information about BMPs, farm size, producer's educational attainment, and risk aversion on the number of BMPs adopted.

Changes to commodity programs in the 2002 Farm Bill increased the value of crop base acreages on which decoupled payments are received. The bill also expanded the availability of key conservation programs. This paper compares the value of payments from commodity programs (along with continued crop production) to the easement payment (and recreational lease revenue) available under the Wetland Reserve Program. A net present value model using risk-adjusted returns is employed in the analysis for Mississippi delta cropland containing rice, cotton, and soybean base. Sensitivity analysis is conducted on some of the key variables affecting the decision.

The study analyzes the effect of risk aversion on the optimal level of fertilizer by employing a pooled time-series cross-sectional survey data collected from 46 rainfed rice farmers in Tarlac, Central Luzon, Philippines. Based on a heteroscedastic specification of production function, fertilizer was found to be a risk-increasing input, but the effect of risk aversion on the optimal fertilizer use was estimated to be moderate. Explanations for the low average rate of application of fertilizer under rainfed conditions thus need to be found elsewhere.

Conservation reserve program (CRP) payments amount to several billion dollars annually. Payments are allocated to both remove land from production and to help farmers pay for conservation improvements. However, research examining whether farmers increase their utility with CRPs is limited. This paper uses simulation analysis and certainty equivalents to compare farming income to payments under the CRP. Farming income is a combination of crop production and government payments as specified in the 2002 Farm Bill. This analysis focuses on farms in three different counties in Kentucky. Results indicate that CRPs are good choices for many farmers.

An inverse live-hog demand model was estimated to analyze whether there has been a recent increase in the magnitude of live-hog, own-quantity demand flexibility. Estimating the impact of processing capacity-utilization rate changes on live-hog prices was a second objective of this research. Results indicate that live hog prices have become more responsive to changes in hog slaughter, slaughter weight, cold storage stocks, and changes in the processing capacity-utilization rate. Finally, model results indicate that the sharp increase in processing capacity-utilization rates, the increase in average dressed weight, and the increase in hog slaughter all had a negative effect on the live-hog prices.

The 2002 Farm Bill creates several opportunities for landowners to adopt management practices that protect and improve soil and water quality. Landowners considering enrollment in conservation programs must compare the monetary and nonmonetary costs and benefits from removing land from production agriculture. The overall purpose of this invited paper session was to improve the understanding of the factors affecting a landowner's decision to enroll in conservation programs. Papers addressed the environmental benefits of conservation programs and compared the returns to enrolling in conservation programs to the returns from production agriculture.

This study examines the return on agricultural assets relative to nonfinancial corporate assets in the general economy using aggregate Bureau of Economic Analysis data. Our results indicate that the rate of return on nonfarm assets dominates the rate of return on agricultural assets. The average rate of return on nonfarm assets is higher than the average rate of return on farm assets, and the variance of the rate of return on nonfarm assets is lower than the variance of the rate of return on farm assets. Furthermore, the rate of return on agricultural assets only exceeds the rate of return in the nonfarm sector in 1992.

A recent study by Miljkovic, Marsh, and Brester estimates that reductions in the Japanese tariff-rate quota between 1993 and 2001 increased U.S. beef prices by $1.03 per cwt and yen depreciation between 1995 and 1998 reduced U.S. hog prices by $0.99 per cwt. Relaxing the assumption that U.S. beef and hog supplies are fixed cuts the total elasticities underlying these estimates by 50% or more. The upshot is that shocks in the Japanese market have little effect on U.S. beef and pork prices. Hence, producers may be better off focusing on domestic issues such as dietary concerns over red meat consumption.

An import demand model, augmented with third-country effect variables, is developed to examine the effects of strong U.S. dollar, volatility of the U.S. dollar, and competition among the exporting countries on the shares of U.S. wheat in Asian markets. In the empirical model, the dependent variable is the market shares of U.S. wheat. Explanatory variables include wheat prices of exporting countries, exchange rates between the importing and exporting countries, and volatilities of the exchange rates. Panel estimation results show that the U.S. currency value and volatility, Australian wheat price, and the volatilities of Canadian and Australian currency values have significant effects on U.S. market shares.

In responding to a comment article, we concur that quantifying U.S. livestock price response to changing Japanese meat import demand requires nonzero supply elasticities beyond one quarter. However, rigidities in market trade and empirical tests justify the inclusion of exchange rates in the short-run analysis. Producer welfare asymptotically approaches zero for increasing supply elasticities in the long run, but short-run transitions in producer surplus are meaningful to producers.

This research identifies and quantifies the determinants of first-year academic performance in the College of Agriculture at Kansas State University, 1990–1999. Forty-eight percent of the variation in first-semester college grades was explained by high school grades, standardized test scores, socioeconomic variables, high school characteristics, credit hours completed, and major field of study. Approximately 62% of the variation in second-semester grades was explained. First-semester college grades explained 43% of second-semester grades. Several statistically significant relationships are detected, and the implications for students, advisors, and administrators are discussed.

This article analyzes anomalous patterns of agent, adjuster, and producer claim outcomes and determines the most likely pattern of collusion that is suggestive of fraud, waste, and abuse in the federal crop insurance program. Log–linear analysis of Poisson-distributed counts of anomalous entities is used to examine potential patterns of collusion. The most likely pattern of collusion present in the crop insurance program is where agents, adjusters, and producers nonrecursively interact with each other to coordinate their behavior. However, if a priori an intermediary is known to initiate and coordinate the collusion, a pattern where the producer acts as the intermediary is the most likely pattern of collusion evidenced in the data. These results have important implications for insurance program design and compliance.