Two basic economic problems that plague commercial agriculture are (1) a chronic cost-price squeeze brought about by input price inflation and other causes and (2) instability in economic outcomes brought about mainly by unpredictable weather which influences yields and production at home and abroad. The objective of this article is to estimate the sources of instability in U. S. feed grains supply and utilization. Because of the inelastic demand for feed grains, changes in the quantities produced, stored, and utilized, both domestically and abroad, are influential in determining price and income. Identifying past sources of instability provides background for possible future policy considerations to reduce price and income variation. The latter step is not considered here, although commodity stock levels necessary to offset variation in domestic production and export demand are estimated.

After three to four decades of substantial increase, yields per acre of major U.S. crops appear to have tapered off. The average annual rate of growth in crop yields decreased markedly from 2.7 percent for the 1950s to 1.8 percent for the 1960s, and finally fell to 0.1 percent for the first half of the 1970s. Scientists commissioned by the National Academy of Sciences to investigate agriculture production efficiency first discovered the problem [6]. Concern about the situation was expressed in the literature early this year by both a plant physiologist and agricultural economists. If a crop yield series has reached and remains on a plateau, it would conform with what is expected in a stationary or trendless series. Therefore, examination of the leveling of crop yields can be accomplished by testing for the presence or absence of a trend in the series.

Per acre land prices are observed to vary from one sale to the next. Reynolds and Timmons found that differences in land prices could be partially explained by net farm income, government farm programs, technological advance, farm enlargement, pressure from an increasing population, and capital gains. Other studies identified tobacco and peanut allotments and spatial shifts of industrial and urban development as major factors affecting differences in land prices. An additional factor which has not been addressed fully in the literature is the relationship between the lending agency which finances the land sale and the per acre sale price of the land. Identification of the magnitude of the relationship between the foregoing and other factors and bare land prices may provide useful information to policymakers and land appraisers. For example, policymakers could determine the impact on per acre land prices of altering the size of per acre flue-cured tobacco allotments. Appraisers could adjust the price of a recently observed land sale to reflect an expected market value for characteristics of the property being appraised.

The effects of variation in household age-sex composition on food expenditures are not, conventionally, accounted for when food expenditures are expressed on a per capita basis. Because households differ in physical makeup as well as in their ability to generate income, the specific requirements certain household members place on the family budget raise the problem of determing their relative economic position. The per capita approach fails to reflect the effect of variations in household composition on food expenditures. Therefore, it is desirable to isolate the normal food expenditure relation to the “household-specific” effects.

The Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC), established by Executive Order in 1933 and granted a federal charter in 1948, is authorized to extend nonrecourse loans to farmers who use agricultural commodities from the most recent harvest as collateral. The loan program was designed to foster a more orderly marketing procedure and stabilize agricultural prices and income, but farmers also use this program as both a residual market and a speculation and marketing aid. The amount loaned to a farmer equals the quantity of the commodity pledged as collateral times a fixed per unit value (loan rate) which is announced prior to the production period. Eligibility of a farmer for a CCC loan may require compliance with USDA allotment or set-aside programs and storage of the commodity in a CCC approved facility. The CCC's commodity demand via the loan program is perfectly elastic at the loan rate and farmers can supply as much as they desire. When the loan matures the farmer can either repay it with interest or default on both principal and interest, in which case the CCC assumes ownership of the pledged commodity.

The U.S. grain marketing system frequently is cited as a fairly good working example of the perfect market concept. In general, research has shown that prices change as predicted, to account for the changes in the time, place, and form of the commodity. Much of the research done on grain prices over space has concentrated on the major grain producing states and/or has been cast in the Judge and Wallace general equilibrium framework. The author reports the results of an analysis of corn pricing efficiency in a minor surplus area (western New York) located in a much larger deficit area (the northeastern U.S.).

Since 1970, increased attention has been devoted to examining the development potential of rural areas. Among the contributing factors are the reversal of population migration trends which began about 1970, the increasing dispersion of manufacturing activities, and the congestion and population losses of central urban cities. This study, as part of Title V research in Ohio, is an examination of labor force behavior in manufacturing. Although manufacturing employment has declined in relation to total employment in the region, the manufacturing sector has been and continues to be one of the major sources of income and employment. The characteristics and behavior of labor in this region are expected to be similar to those of many other rural areas in the United States, particularly areas of the Appalachian region.

Cotton marketing, like the marketing of other agricultural commodities, traditionally has been done through relatively small country markets. Problems for cotton producers resulting from this type of market structure are the limited availability of market price information and the limited degree of buyer competition for their product at the local level. Though these are seemingly inherent problems in local markets, new technologies in the form of electronic markets can help to overcome them.

The logistical efficiency and viability of the rural transportation system is a growing concern of agricultural producers, transportation regulators, and policy makers. Railroad facility limitations, abandonment of railroad track, deterioration of the rural road system, and changing transportation rate structures are examples of issues for which solutions and evaluations are required. To plan and evaluate transportation alternatives, decision makers need a research tool with an ability to answer numerous “what if” types of questions. Often the model must include a spatial and/or temporal dimension, in addition to microscopic detail of the transportation and marketing system. Therefore, large models are needed and efficiency of computer solution procedures becomes a relevant consideration. The flexibility of the research tool to include necessary system realism may also become an important concern.

Increased vegetable production for the fresh market often has been suggested as an agricultural alternative that will improve the income situation of small-scale farmers. Because vegetable production is an intensive activity and high incomes per acre are possible, it has political appeal as a quick solution to the low income levels generally associated with small farm operations. This study was developed from the small farm program of the University of Florida, which has concentrated on the northern and panhandle areas of Florida. Trials conducted by the Vegetable Crops Department of the University of Florida in 1974 and 1975 indicate that by variation of the planting season and control of insects and diseases, vegetables can be produced during periods of the year when the north Florida area has not historically competed in the fresh vegetable market.