Bacillary dysentery continues to be a major health issue in developing countries and ambient temperature is a possible environmental determinant. However, evidence about the risk of bacillary dysentery attributable to ambient temperature under climate change scenarios is scarce. We examined the attributable fraction (AF) of temperature-related bacillary dysentery in urban and rural Hefei, China during 2006–2012 and projected its shifting pattern under climate change scenarios using a distributed lag non-linear model. The risk of bacillary dysentery increased with the temperature rise above a threshold (18·4 °C), and the temperature effects appeared to be acute. The proportion of bacillary dysentery attributable to hot temperatures was 18·74% (95 empirical confidence interval (eCI): 8·36–27·44%). Apparent difference of AF was observed between urban and rural areas, with AF varying from 26·87% (95% eCI 16·21–36·68%) in urban area to −1·90% (95 eCI −25·03 to 16·05%) in rural area. Under the climate change scenarios alone (1–4 °C rise), the AF from extreme hot temperatures (>31·2 °C) would rise greatly accompanied by the relatively stable AF from moderate hot temperatures (18·4–31·2 °C). If climate change proceeds, urban area may be more likely to suffer from rapidly increasing burden of disease from extreme hot temperatures in the absence of effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.

In April 2015, Finnish public health authorities alerted European Union member states of a possible multi-country Salmonella enteritidis outbreak linked to an international youth ice-hockey tournament in Latvia. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Finnish and Latvian authorities initiated an outbreak investigation to identify the source. The investigation included a description of the outbreak, retrospective cohort study, microbiological investigation and trace-back. We identified 154 suspected and 96 confirmed cases from seven countries. Consuming Bolognese sauce and salad at a specific event arena significantly increased the risk of illness. Isolates from Finnish, Swedish and Norwegian cases had an identical multiple-locus variable-number of tandem repeats analysis-profile (3-10-6-4-1). Breaches in hygiene and food storing practices in the specific arena's kitchen allowing for cross-contamination were identified. Riga Cup participants were recommended to follow good hand hygiene and consume only freshly cooked foods. This investigation demonstrated that the use of ECDC's Epidemic Intelligence Information System for Food- and Waterborne Diseases and Zoonoses platform was essential to progress the investigation by facilitating information exchange between countries. Cross-border data sharing to perform whole genome sequencing gave relevant information regarding the source of the outbreak.

Cats are known to be the main reservoir for Bartonella henselae and Bartonella clarridgeiae, which are the agents of ‘cat-scratch disease’ in humans. In the present study, we investigated the prevalence of the two Bartonella species on 1754 cat bloods collected from all prefectures in Japan during 2007–2008 by a nested-polymerase chain reaction (PCR) targeting the 16S–23S rRNA internal transcribed spacer region. Overall, Bartonella DNA was detected in 4·6% (80/1754) of the cats examined. The nested-PCR showed that 48·8% (39/80) of the positive cats were infected with B. henselae mono-infection, 33·8% (27/80) with B. clarridgeiae mono-infection and 17·5% (14/80) were infected with both species. The prevalence (5·9%; 65/1103) of Bartonella infection in the western part of Japan was significantly higher than that (2·3%; 15/651) of eastern Japan (P < 0·001). Statistical analysis of the cats examined suggested a significant association between Bartonella infection and FeLV infection (OR = 1·9; 95% CI = 1·1–3·4), but not with FIV infection (OR = 1·6; 95% CI = 1·0–2·6).

Since the 1990s, New Zealand (NZ) has seen an increasing incidence of paediatric skin infections leading to hospitalization. We sought to describe the epidemiology of these infections over time. Hospital discharge data were analysed for all children admitted to any NZ public hospital from 2004 to 2014. We found the age-standardized incidence of hospitalizations due to skin infections increased during this period from 522/100 000 in 2004 to a peak of 644/100 000 in 2011, after which it declined to 524/100 000 in 2014. This decline in incidence was driven primarily by the decline in hospitalization rates in high-risk groups including children living in the most deprived areas as well as Māori and Pacific children. Recent targeted policies focused on improving healthcare access through school-based and primary care-based interventions in these high-risk groups could potentially explain the decline in hospitalization rates. However, even with the closing of the inequality gap, significant socioeconomic and ethnic health disparities persist.

Understanding infection dynamics in animal hosts is fundamental to managing spillover and emergence of zoonotic infections. Hendra virus is endemic in Australian pteropodid bat populations and can be lethal to horses and humans. However, we know little about the factors driving Hendra virus prevalence in resevoir bat populations, making spillover difficult to predict. We use Hendra virus prevalence data collected from 13 000 pooled bat urine samples across space and time to determine if pulses of prevalence are periodic and synchronized across sites. We also test whether site-specific precipitation and temperature affect the amplitude of the largest annual prevalence pulses. We found little evidence for a periodic signal in Hendra virus prevalence. Although the largest amplitude pulses tended to occur over winter, pulses could also occur in other seasons. We found that Hendra virus prevalence was weakly synchronized across sites over short distances, suggesting that prevalence is driven by local-scale effects. Finally, we found that drier conditions in previous seasons and the abundance of Pteropus alecto were positively correlated with the peak annual values of Hendra virus prevalence. Our results suggest that in addition to seasonal effects, bat density and local climatic conditions interact to drive Hendra virus infection dynamics.

Longan County is considered a highly endemic area for hepatitis B virus (HBV). The plasma-derived vaccine has been used in newborns in this area since 1987. A cross-sectional survey was conducted to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of this vaccine. In total, 1634 participants born during 1987–1993 and who had received a series of plasma-derived HB vaccinations at ages 0, 1, and 6 months were enrolled. Serological HBV markers were detected and compared with previous survey data. Overall the prevalence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) in all participants was 3·79%; 3·47% of subjects who had received the first dose within 24 h were HBsAg positive, and 8·41% of subjects who had received a delayed first dose were also HBsAg positive. There were 1527 subjects identified who had received the first dose within 24 h and whose HBsAg and anti-HBc prevalence increased yearly after immunization, while the anti-HBs-positive rate and vaccine effectiveness declined. The geometric mean concentration of antibody in the anti-HB-positive participants was 55·13 mIU/ml and this declined after immunization. Fewer than 2·0% of participants had anti-HB levels ⩾1000 mIU/ml. The data show that the protective efficacy of the plasma-derived vaccinations declined and administration of HB vaccine within 24 h of birth was very important. To reduce the risk of HBV infection in this highly endemic area, a booster dose might be necessary if anti-HBs levels fall below 10 mIU/ml after age 18 years. Furthermore, studies on the immune memory induced by plasma-derived HB vaccine are needed.

Ticks represent a large global reservoir of zoonotic disease. Current surveillance systems can be time and labour intensive. We propose that the passive surveillance of companion animal electronic health records (EHRs) could provide a novel methodology for describing temporal and spatial tick activity. A total of 16 58 857 EHRs were collected over a 2-year period (31 March 2014 and 29 May 2016) from companion animals attending a large sentinel network of 192 veterinary clinics across Great Britain (the Small Animal Veterinary Surveillance Network – SAVSNET). In total, 2180 EHRs were identified where a tick was recorded on an animal. The relative risk of dogs presenting with a tick compared with cats was 0·73 (95% confidence intervals 0·67–0·80). The highest number of tick records were in the south central regions of England. The presence of ticks showed marked seasonality with summer peaks, and a secondary smaller peak in autumn for cats; ticks were still being found throughout most of Great Britain during the winter. This suggests that passive surveillance of companion animal EHRs can describe tick activity temporally and spatially in a large cohort of veterinary clinics across Great Britain. These results and methodology could help inform veterinary and public health messages as well as increase awareness of ticks and tick-borne diseases in the general population.

From a population-based birth cohort of 245 249 children born in Western Australia during 1996–2005, we used linkage of laboratory and birth record datasets to obtain data including all respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) detections during infancy from a subcohort of 87 981 singleton children born in the Perth metropolitan area from 2000 to 2004. Using log binomial regression, we found that the risk of infant RSV detection increases with the number of older siblings, with those having ⩾3 older siblings experiencing almost three times the risk (relative risk 2·83, 95% confidence interval 2·46–3·26) of firstborn children. We estimate that 45% of the RSV detections in our subcohort were attributable to infection from an older sibling. The sibling effect was significantly higher for those infants who were younger during the season of peak risk (winter) than those who were older. Although older siblings were present in our cohort, they had very few RSV detections which could be temporally linked to an infant's infection. We conclude that RSV infection in older children leads to less severe symptoms but is nevertheless an important source of infant infection. Our results lend support to a vaccination strategy which includes family members in order to provide maximum protection for newborn babies.

It has been suggested that zoonotic transmission of Staphylococcus aureus (SA) and methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) can occur between owners and their pets within the same household. However, the influence that pet-ownership could have in the biodiversity of SA/MRSA strains circulating among owners is not fully understood. The objective of this study was to perform a molecular epidemiological analysis to evaluate and compare the biodiversity of SA/MRSA strains in dog-owning and non-dog-owning healthy households within the same community. Antimicrobial resistance, SCCmec type, USA type and clonality were assessed. Overall, 33·1% (165/499) of human subjects carried SA and 2·8% (14/499) carried MRSA. Among dogs, 7·1% (8/113) carried SA but none were MRSA positive. No difference was detected in the diversity index of SA/MRSA pulsotypes between dog-owning and non-dog-owning households; but, a marked variation was still observed in the pulsotypes circulating in each type of household. Additionally, simultaneous carriage of the same SA pulsotype in owner(s) and dog was observed in 57% of households with positive humans and pets. These results demonstrate that dogs can indeed participate in the circulation of SA/MRSA pulsotypes within a home and that the presence of a pet does not seem to favour certain strains within their household.

We determined the hepatitis E virus (HEV) seroprevalence and detection rate in commercial swine herds in Italy's utmost pig-rich area, and assessed HEV seropositivity risk in humans as a function of occupational exposure to pigs, diet, foreign travel, medical history and hunting activities. During 2011–2014, 2700 sera from 300 swine herds were tested for anti-HEV IgG. HEV RNA was searched in 959 faecal pools from HEV-seropositive herds and in liver/bile/muscle samples from 179 pigs from HEV-positive herds. A cohort study of HEV seropositivity in swine workers (n = 149) was also performed using two comparison groups of people unexposed to swine: omnivores (n = 121) and vegetarians/vegans (n = 115). Herd-level seroprevalence was 75·6% and was highest in farrow-to-feeder herds (81·6%). Twenty-six out of 105 (24·8%) herds had HEV-positive faecal samples (25 HEV-3, one HEV-4). Only one bile sample tested positive. HEV seropositivity was 12·3% in swine workers, 0·9% in omnivores and 3·0% in vegetarians/vegans. Factors significantly associated with HEV seropositivity were occupational exposure to pigs, travel to Africa and increased swine workers’ age. We concluded that HEV is widespread in Italian swine herds and HEV-4 circulation is alarming given its pathogenicity, with those occupationally exposed to pigs being at increased risk of HEV seropositivity.

The purpose of this study was to identify predictors of increasing incidence of Spotted Fever Group rickettsioses (SFGR) in Illinois, with a specific focus on weather variables. We analysed cases of SFGR reported to the Illinois Department of Public Health from 2004 to 2013. Surveillance definitions changed in 2008 and 2010, but those changes alone did not account for observed spikes in incidence in 2008, 2012 and 2013. A total of 590 cases of SFGR occurred, with the majority in the southernmost portion of the state. Only 3·4% of the reported cases were considered confirmed under the case definition. Increased mean winter temperature (IRR 1·32, CI 1·25–1·40) and increased precipitation (IRR 1·08, CI 1·04–1·11) were each associated with increased incidence of SFGR. Our findings show that weather appears to play a significant role in explaining the increasing annual incidence of SFGR in Illinois.

The protozoan Toxoplasma gondii infects about one-third of the world's population. The consumption of raw meat, contact with cats, contact with soil, and ingestion of food or water contaminated with soil are considered to be the most important sources of infection. Still in most women who were infected during pregnancy, no definitive source of infection is found. In 2014–2016, independent sources of T. gondii infection were searched for by gathering epidemiological data from 1865 (519 infected) responders. Touching garden soil (odds ratio (OR) 3·14, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·3–6·35), sustaining cat-related injuries (OR 2·16, 95% CI 1·25–3·74), and eating improperly washed root vegetables (OR 1·71, 95% CI 1·02–2·87), but not risky sexual behavior (OR 1·22, 95% CI 0·79–1·90), were the predictors of infection. The seroprevalence of T. gondii infection had been increasing up to ages 35–50 in men and ages 50–54 in women. Past those ages, seroprevalence of toxoplasmosis has been decreasing. This suggests that the natural decrease of anamnestic antibodies concentrations over time leads to positivity-to-negativity seroconversion in many subjects. If this is true, then the prevalence of T. gondii infection in a general population and its potential impacts on public health could be much larger than generally believed.

We performed a spatial-temporal analysis to assess household risk factors for Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in a remote, severely-affected village. We defined a household as a family's shared living space and a case-household as a household with at least one resident who became a suspect, probable, or confirmed Ebola case from 1 August 2014 to 10 October 2014. We used Geographic Information System (GIS) software to calculate inter-household distances, performed space-time cluster analyses, and developed Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE). Village X consisted of 64 households; 42% of households became case-households over the observation period. Two significant space-time clusters occurred among households in the village; temporal effects outweighed spatial effects. GEE demonstrated that the odds of becoming a case-household increased by 4·0% for each additional person per household (P < 0·02) and 2·6% per day (P < 0·07). An increasing number of persons per household, and to a lesser extent, the passage of time after onset of the outbreak were risk factors for household Ebola acquisition, emphasizing the importance of prompt public health interventions that prioritize the most populated households. Using GIS with GEE can reveal complex spatial-temporal risk factors, which can inform prioritization of response activities in future outbreaks.

Dengue fever (DF) is the most prevalent and rapidly spreading mosquito-borne disease globally. Control of DF is limited by barriers to vector control and integrated management approaches. This study aimed to explore the potential risk factors for autochthonous DF transmission and to estimate the threshold effects of high-order interactions among risk factors. A time-series regression tree model was applied to estimate the hierarchical relationship between reported autochthonous DF cases and the potential risk factors including the timeliness of DF surveillance systems (median time interval between symptom onset date and diagnosis date, MTIOD), mosquito density, imported cases and meteorological factors in Zhongshan, China from 2001 to 2013. We found that MTIOD was the most influential factor in autochthonous DF transmission. Monthly autochthonous DF incidence rate increased by 36·02-fold [relative risk (RR) 36·02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 25·26–46·78, compared to the average DF incidence rate during the study period] when the 2-month lagged moving average of MTIOD was >4·15 days and the 3-month lagged moving average of the mean Breteau Index (BI) was ⩾16·57. If the 2-month lagged moving average MTIOD was between 1·11 and 4·15 days and the monthly maximum diurnal temperature range at a lag of 1 month was <9·6 °C, the monthly mean autochthonous DF incidence rate increased by 14·67-fold (RR 14·67, 95% CI 8·84–20·51, compared to the average DF incidence rate during the study period). This study demonstrates that the timeliness of DF surveillance systems, mosquito density and diurnal temperature range play critical roles in the autochthonous DF transmission in Zhongshan. Better assessment and prediction of the risk of DF transmission is beneficial for establishing scientific strategies for DF early warning surveillance and control.

Societal and economic impact of influenza is mainly due to influenza infection of specific groups, who are at higher risk of health complications leading up to hospitalisation or death. In this study we applied the health belief model (HBM) to evaluate beliefs and attitudes towards influenza disease and vaccine in community-dwelling high-risk individuals (aged 65 or more or having a chronic disease). We conducted a mixed-method study using data collected through a telephone survey of a household unit sample. We used thematic analysis to map responses to HBM dimensions and Poisson regression to model vaccine non-uptake prevalence. The main self-reported reason not to take the vaccine referred to the susceptibility dimension: ‘considering oneself to be a healthy person’ (29·8%, (95% confidence interval (CI) 22·1–38·7)). Bad experiences after vaccination – barriers dimension – were also commonly reported (17·0%, (95% CI 10·8–23·8)). Vaccine non-uptake prevalence was 22% higher in those who did not consider themselves susceptible to contract flu (Prevalence Ratio (PR) = 1·22, (95% CI 1·0–1·5)) and 18% lower in those who did not consider that the vaccine causes flu symptoms (PR = 0·82, (95% CI 0·68–0·99)). Results suggest that high-risk individuals do not think of themselves susceptible to influenza infection and fear adverse events following immunisation.

Dengue presents a wide clinical spectrum of signs and symptoms, with characteristics of the host potentially influencing the disease evolution. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of gender and age on dengue clinical outcomes in a recent outbreak situation in Brazil, applying a cross-sectional design and including 6703 dengue cases with laboratory confirmation, occurring in Vitória, Espírito Santo State, Brazil, between 2007 and 2013. Data were obtained from the Information System for Notifiable Diseases. Overall, 11·3% of the sample presented with severe dengue, which affected 13·0% of males, 10·0% of females, 8·8% of children, 12·5% of adolescents, 10·5% of adults and 15·5% of the elderly. Age was higher in the severe dengue group (P = 0·03). Severe dengue was associated with males and the elderly (P < 0·01); however, considering only severe cases, children presented haemorrhage and plasma leakage more frequently than older age groups. The results emphasize the importance of a differentiated protocol for management of dengue cases, taking into consideration host factors like age. These findings also suggest the elderly and children as priority groups for immunization in a future implementation of a vaccine.

Several pathogens have been associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Whether this occurs with Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection is unclear. We assessed if tuberculosis disease increased the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We identified patients with tuberculosis index claims from a large de-identified database of ~15 million adults enrolled in a U.S. commercial insurance policy between 2008 and 2010. Tuberculosis patients were 1:1 matched to patients without tuberculosis claims using propensity scores. We compared the occurrence of index AMI claims between the tuberculosis and non-tuberculosis cohorts using Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox Proportional Hazard models. Data on 2026 patients with tuberculosis and 2026 propensity-matched patients without tuberculosis were included. AMI was more frequent in the tuberculosis cohort compared with the non-tuberculosis cohort, 67 (3·3%) vs. 32 (1·6%) AMI cases, respectively, P < 0·01. Tuberculosis was associated with an increased risk of AMI (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1·98, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1·3–3·0). The results were similar when the analysis was restricted to pulmonary tuberculosis (adjusted HR 2·43, 95% CI 1·5–4·1). Tuberculosis was associated with an increased risk of AMI. CVD risk assessment should be considered in tuberculosis patients. Mechanistic studies of tuberculosis and CVD are warranted.

Noroviruses (NoVs) are major causal agents of acute gastroenteritis in humans. NoV GII.4 is the predominant genotype globally. However, uncommon and minor types of NoVs are consistently detected and some have been shown to dominate over GII.4. Therefore, the prevalence of dominant and uncommon NoVs makes the identification of these viruses important for the prediction and prevention of pandemics. In this study, the full-genome sequence of a NoV (strain JW) detected in Korea was extensively characterized. The full-length genome was 7510 nucleotides long, and phylogenetic analysis based on the whole-genome sequences, including open reading frame (ORF)1, ORF2, and ORF3, indicated that it belonged to the GII.21 genotype. Strain JW showed maximum identity with strain YO284; however, comparison of the amino acid sequence of ORF2, which functions as an antigen, showed substitutions in several amino acids. GII.21 is not a prevalent epidemiological agent of acute gastroenteritis in humans, but it is consistently found in gastroenteritis patients from several countries. The present study provides the first full-genome sequence analysis of NoV GII.21 isolated from a patient in Korea. Our findings provide not only valuable genome information but also data for epidemiology studies, epidemic prevention, and vaccine development strategies.

Seasonal influenza can cause significant morbidity in pregnant women. Much of the existing epidemiological evidence on influenza during pregnancy has focused on the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. To measure the epidemiological characteristics of seasonal influenza infection among pregnant women and the impact on infant health, a cohort of 86 779 pregnancies during the influenza season (2012–2014) was established using probabilistic linkage of notifiable infectious disease, hospital admission, and birth information. A total of 192 laboratory-confirmed influenza infections were identified (2·2 per 1000 pregnancies), 14·6% of which were admitted to hospital. There was no difference in the proportion of infections admitted to hospital by trimester or subtype of infection. Influenza B infections were more likely to occur in second trimester compared with influenza A/H3N2 and influenza A/H1N1 infections (41·3%, 23·6%, and 33·3%, respectively), and on average, infants born to women with influenza B during pregnancy had 4·0% (95% CI 0·3–7·6%) lower birth weight relative to optimal compared with infants born to uninfected women (P = 0·03). Results from this linked population-based study suggest that there are differences in maternal infection by virus type and subtype and support the provision of seasonal influenza vaccine to pregnant women.

Malaria and leishmaniasis are among the two most important health problems of many developing countries especially in the Middle East and North Africa. It is common for vector-borne infectious diseases to have similar hotspots which may be attributed to the overlapping ecological distribution of the vector. Hotspot analyses were conducted to simultaneously detect the location of local hotspots and test their statistical significance. Spatial scan statistics were used to detect and test hotspots of malaria and cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Afghanistan in 2009. A multivariate negative binomial model was used to simultaneously assess the effects of environmental variables on malaria and CL. In addition to the dependency between malaria and CL disease counts, spatial and temporal information were also incorporated in the model. Results indicated that malaria and CL incidence peaked at the same periods. Two hotspots were detected for malaria and three for CL. The findings in the current study show an association between the incidence of malaria and CL in the studied areas of Afghanistan. The incidence of CL disease in a given month is linked with the incidence of malaria in the previous month. Co-existence of malaria and CL within the same geographical area was supported by this study, highlighting the presence and effects of environmental variables such as temperature and precipitation. People living in areas with malaria are at increased risk for leishmaniasis infection. Local healthcare authorities should consider the co-infection problem by recommending systematic malaria screening for all CL patients.