Historical studies of influenza pandemics can provide insight into transmission and mortality patterns, and may aid in planning for a future pandemic. Here, we analyse historical vital statistics and quantify the age-specific mortality patterns associated with the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Japan, USA, and UK. All three countries showed highly elevated mortality risk in young adults relative to surrounding non-pandemic years. By contrast, the risk of death was low in the very young and very old. In Japan, the overall mortality impact was not limited to winter 1918–1919, and continued during winter 1919–1920. Mortality impact varied as much as threefold across the 47 Japanese prefectures, and differences in baseline mortality, population demographics, and density explained a small fraction of these variations. Our study highlights important geographical variations in timing and mortality impact of historical pandemics, in particular between the Eastern and Western hemispheres. In a future pandemic, vaccination in one region could save lives even months after the emergence of a pandemic virus in another region.

Since Ebola virus was discovered in 1970s, the virus has persisted in Africa and sporadic fatal outbreaks in humans and non-human primates have been reported. However, the evolutionary history of Ebola virus remains unclear. In this study, 27 Ebola virus strains with complete glycoprotein genes, including five species (Zaire, Sudan, Reston, Tai Forest, Bundibugyo), were analysed. Here, we propose a hypothesis of the evolutionary history of Ebola virus which will be helpful to investigate the molecular evolution of these viruses.

Réunion Island (Indian Ocean) has been suffering from its first known Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) epidemic since February 2005. To achieve a better understanding of the disease, a questionnaire was drawn up for hospital staff members and their household. CHIKV infected about one-third of the studied population, the proportion increasing with age and being higher in women. Presence of a garden was associated with CHIKV infection. The geographical distribution of cases was concordant with insect vector Aedes albopictus distribution. The main clinical signs were arthralgia and fever. The disease evolved towards full recovery in 34·4% of cases, a relapse in 55·6%, or a chronic form in 10%. Paracetamol was used as a painkiller in 95% of cases, sometimes associated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, corticoids, or traditional herbal medicine. The survey provided valuable information on the factors that favour transmission, the clinical signs, the importance of relapses and the therapies used.

A literature search traced existing information on meningococcal disease in Asia. Reviewed data describing the epidemiology of meningococcal disease in Asia are incomplete, due in part to absence of surveillance in many countries, poor bacterial detection methods and social and healthcare barriers to disease reporting. This suggests that meningococcal disease in some Asian countries may be under-recognized, with a need to introduce/improve existing surveillance and case identification systems. Nevertheless, in some developing Asian countries, the disease burden may be significant. Serogroup A meningococcal epidemics are responsible for high morbidity and mortality in some countries and continue to be an ongoing threat, particularly in developing countries. There is an increasing role played by serogroups C, Y, and W-135 in invasive disease, indicating evolving meningococcal disease epidemiology in some countries. Multivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccines offer new opportunities in the region for reducing the meningococcal disease burden.

Ultraviolet radiation (UVR) suppresses many aspects of cell-mediated immunity but it is uncertain whether solar UV exposure alters resistance to human infectious diseases. Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) causes varicella (chickenpox) and can reactivate from latency to cause zoster (shingles). The monthly incidence of chickenpox and zoster in a defined Polish population over 2 years was recorded and ground level solar UV was measured daily. There was a significant seasonality of UVR. Evidence of seasonal variation was found for all zoster cases and for zoster in males, with the lowest number of cases in the winter. The number of zoster cases with lesions occurring on exposed body sites (the face) demonstrated highly significant seasonality with a peak in July/August. Seasonal models for UVR and zoster cases showed similar temporal patterns. By contrast, for varicella, the maximum number of cases was found in March and the minimum in August/September, probably explained by the respiratory spread of VZV. It is tempting to speculate that the increase in solar UVR in the summer could induce suppression of cellular immunity, thus contributing to the corresponding rise in the incidence of zoster.

The paper proposes a model explaining the spatial variation in incidence of nephropathia epidemica in Europe. We take into account the rodent dynamic features and the replicative dynamics of the virus in animals, high in the acute phase of newly infected animals and low in the subsequent chronic phase. The model revealed that only vole populations with multi-annual fluctuations allow for simultaneously high numbers of infected rodents and high proportions of those rodents in the acute excretion phase during the culminating phase of population build-up. This leads to a brief peak in exceptionally high concentrations of virus in the environment, and thereby, to human exposure. Such a mechanism suggests that a slight ecological disturbance in animal–parasite systems could result in the emergence of human diseases. Thus, the potential risk for public health due to several zoonotic diseases may be greater than previously believed, based solely on the distribution of human cases.

The effectiveness of influenza vaccine in reducing hospital admissions for pneumonia, influenza, bronchitis, or emphysema was assessed by a case-control study of people aged 16 years and older who were admitted to 10 Leicestershire hospitals between 1 December 1989 and 31 January 1990. Hospital and general practitioners' records for 156 admissions (the cases) and 289 controls matched for age and sex were reviewed. Information was collected on demography, the usual place of residence (institutional or non-institutional), the existence of chronic illness, and vaccination during the 5 years before admission. The odds ratio for hospital admission among vaccinees was 0·67 (95% CI 0·39–1·12) giving an estimate of vaccine effectiveness in this setting of 33% (95% CI 0–61). However, multivariate logistic regression, adjusting for the effects of institutional care and chronic illness, revealed that influenza vaccination reduced hospital admissions by 63% (95% CI 17–84%). There was a strong trend towards improved vaccine effectiveness when used in institutional settings. Influenza vaccine is effective in reducing hospital admissions for influenza, pneumonia, bronchitis and emphysema, and effectiveness is comparable to that observed for influenza and pneumonia admissions in North America.

Käber's method is, for many purposes, a sufficiently accurate way of determining the median effective dose, when we have a series of doses increasing in a constant ratio and a small number of animals on each. The standard error of the determination may also be rapidly found by a simple approximate method. Illustrative examples are given.

The standard error calculated by the approximate method is based on the assumption that the animals are homogeneous. It must be used with caution when any heterogeneity is suspected. With animals of similar heterogeneity to those used here, the differences between two different toxic-fractions should only be regarded as significant if they are from 3 to 3.5 times their standard errors so calculated.

Passive detection of tuberculosis (TB) cases may lead to delay in treatment which may contribute to increased severity of disease and mortality. Active case finding may be an alternative. In a community survey in Cape Town, South Africa, we actively detected 27 bacteriologically positive TB cases and compared those with 473 passively detected TB cases. Seven of 27 (26%) actively detected TB cases did not start treatment within 2 months and were considered initial defaulters. Those who did start treatment had similar treatment success rates as passively detected TB cases (both 80%) (OR 1·01, 95% CI 0·33–3·09). Passively detected cases reported the presence of the symptoms cough (OR 3·72, 95% CI 1·47–9·39), haemoptysis (OR 3·20, 95% CI 1·03–9·93), night sweats (OR 3·35, 95% CI 1·40–7·99), fever (OR 4·28, 95% CI 1·21–15·14), and weight loss (OR 11·14, 95% CI 4·17–29·74) more often than those detected actively. We conclude that although TB cases detected by a community survey are less symptomatic and are prone to a high initial default rate, active case finding can potentially identify a substantial portion of the existing caseload at an earlier stage of disease, thereby reducing the risk of transmission.

We investigated the prevalence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) carriage in a convenience sample of purposely selected populations of dogs, cats and horses in the Greater London area. Swabs from carriage sites were pooled, enriched and processed by standard bacteriological methods. The presence of nuc and mecA was confirmed for MRSA. Risk factors were investigated among veterinary treatment group animals using exact logistic regression analysis. Twenty-six (1·53%) MRSA carriers were identified in the 1692 animals (15/704 dogs, 8/540 cats, 3/152 horses). Animals presenting for veterinary treatment more frequently carried MRSA than healthy animals (OR 7·27, 95% CI 2·18–24·31, P<0·001). Concurrent carriage of non-MRSA coagulase-positive staphylococci was associated with MRSA carriage (OR 0·088, 95% CI 0·016–0·31, P<0·001); none of the other 13 putative risk factors was significant. MRSA carriage was rare in the selected companion animal populations. The absence of typical risk factors indicates that companion animals act as contaminated vectors rather than as true reservoirs.

Molecular methods for the detection and typing of hepatitis A virus (HAV) strains in sewage were applied to determine its distribution in Cairo and Barcelona. The study revealed the occurrence of different patterns of hepatitis A endemicity in each city. The circulating strains characterized, whether in Cairo or Barcelona, were genotype IB. The effects of a child vaccination programme and the increase in the immigrant population on the overall hepatitis A occurrence in Barcelona were evaluated. While vaccination contributed to a significant decrease in the number of clinical cases, the huge recent immigration flow has probably been responsible for the re-emergence of the disease in the last year of study, in the form of small outbreaks among the non-vaccinated population.

The faecal flora of patients with Crohn's disease was compared with that of healthy subjects. In patients with terminal ileitis, numbers of anaerobic gramnegative and coccoid rods (species of Eubacterium and Peptostreptococcus) were higher than in the controls whereas anaerobic gram-positive rods and cocci and aerobes occurred in normal numbers. The composition of the flora was neither influenced by duration of the disease nor by ileocaecal resection. In healthy subjects and patients, a chemically defined diet induced only slight changes in the flora. Thus, the flora in terminal ileitis although stable was permanently abnormal.

In patients with Crohn's colitis, abnormally low numbers of anaerobes were found in patients with severe, bloody diarrhoea while aerobic counts were normal. The flora in patients with mild colitis was similar to that in terminal ileitis. It is suggested that the abnormal flora composition might be an expression of the genetic predisposition to Crohn's disease.

Societal and economic impact of influenza is mainly due to influenza infection of specific groups, who are at higher risk of health complications leading up to hospitalisation or death. In this study we applied the health belief model (HBM) to evaluate beliefs and attitudes towards influenza disease and vaccine in community-dwelling high-risk individuals (aged 65 or more or having a chronic disease). We conducted a mixed-method study using data collected through a telephone survey of a household unit sample. We used thematic analysis to map responses to HBM dimensions and Poisson regression to model vaccine non-uptake prevalence. The main self-reported reason not to take the vaccine referred to the susceptibility dimension: ‘considering oneself to be a healthy person’ (29·8%, (95% confidence interval (CI) 22·1–38·7)). Bad experiences after vaccination – barriers dimension – were also commonly reported (17·0%, (95% CI 10·8–23·8)). Vaccine non-uptake prevalence was 22% higher in those who did not consider themselves susceptible to contract flu (Prevalence Ratio (PR) = 1·22, (95% CI 1·0–1·5)) and 18% lower in those who did not consider that the vaccine causes flu symptoms (PR = 0·82, (95% CI 0·68–0·99)). Results suggest that high-risk individuals do not think of themselves susceptible to influenza infection and fear adverse events following immunisation.

A cluster of acute melioidosis cases occurred in a remote, coastal community in tropical Western Australia. Molecular typing of Burkholderia pseudomallei isolates from culture-confirmed cases and suspected environmental sources by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) of XbaI chromosomal DNA digests showed that a single PFGE type was responsible for five cases of acute infection in a community of around 300 during a 5 week period. This temporal and geographical clustering of acute melioidosis cases provided a unique opportunity to investigate the environmental factors contributing to this disease. B. pseudomallei isolated from a domestic tap at the home of an asymptomatic seroconverter was indistinguishable by PFGE. Possible contributing environmental factors included an unusually acid communal water supply, unrecordable chlorine levels during the probable exposure period, a nearby earth tremor, and gusting winds during the installation of new water and electricity supplies. The possible role of the potable water supply as a source of B. pseudomallei was investigated further.

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections pose a substantial health and economic burden worldwide. To target interventions to prevent foodborne infections, it is important to determine the types of foods leading to illness. Our objective was to determine the food sources of STEC globally and for the six World Health Organization regions. We used data from STEC outbreaks that have occurred globally to estimate source attribution fractions. We categorised foods according to their ingredients and applied a probabilistic model that used information on implicated foods for source attribution. Data were received from 27 countries covering the period between 1998 and 2017 and three regions: the Americas (AMR), Europe (EUR) and Western-Pacific (WPR). Results showed that the top foods varied across regions. The most important sources in AMR were beef (40%; 95% Uncertainty Interval 39–41%) and produce (35%; 95% UI 34–36%). In EUR, the ranking was similar though with less marked differences between sources (beef 31%; 95% UI 28–34% and produce 30%; 95% UI 27–33%). In contrast, the most common source of STEC in WPR was produce (43%; 95% UI 36–46%), followed by dairy (27%; 95% UI 27–27%). Possible explanations for regional variability include differences in food consumption and preparation, frequency of STEC contamination, the potential of regionally predominant STEC strains to cause severe illness and differences in outbreak investigation and reporting. Despite data gaps, these results provide important information to inform the development of strategies for lowering the global burden of STEC infections.

A standard hand-wash sampling technique was compared with a simple fingerstreak sampling method in assessing the relative effectiveness of a number of alternative preparations used for disinfecting the surgeon's hands (alcoholic 0-5% chlorhexidine, alcoholic 0-1% tetrabrom-o-methyl phenol, a 4% chlorhexidine detergent solution, aqueous 0-5% chlorhexidine, 2% 'Irgasan' detergent solution and, as control, bar soap). There was a fairly good correlation between the results of assessment by the two methods after a single disinfection and after six disinfections, three on one day and three on the next. Significant differences were shown in 21 comparisons between treatments when the hand-wash sampling test was used, and 16 of these comparisons also showed a significant difference by the finger-streak test.

Staphylococcus aureus was found in hand samplings from 5 out of 8 nurses in the Burns Unit of Birmingham Accident Hospital by the hand-wash sampling method and from 2 of the same 8 nurses by the finger-streak method; the numbers were small, and no Staph. aureus were isolated from the same hands after 1 min. wash in 70 % ethyl alcohol. Similar sampling on 29 nurses in other wards showed Staph. aureus on 3 nurses (one in large numbers) by the hand-wash technique and on 1 nurse by the finger-streak test; in only 1 nurse whose hands showed Staph. aureus before disinfection was the organism found, by hand-wash sampling, after disinfection.

Parallel sampling of nurses' hands after washing with soap and water and after disinfection with 95 % ethanol showed larger numbers of Staph. aureus in a hospital for skin diseases than in a general hospital, and a lower incidence and somewhat lower density of Staph. aureus after ethanol treatment than after washing with soap and water; Gram-negative bacilli, on the other hand, were commoner on hands in the general than in the skin hospital, and present in much smaller numbers after disinfection with ethanol than after washing with soap and water.

Antibiotic sensitivity tests showed the frequent recurrence on the hands of some nurses of multi-resistant Staph. aureus with resistance patterns similar to those found in infective lesions in some of the patients; different sensitivity patterns were usually found in staphylococci isolated from the nose. Even in wards where many patients were infected, carriage by nurses' hands of a particular strain ofStaph. aureus did not seem to last for more than a few days.

We conducted a seroepidemiological study to evaluate the potential impact of mass varicella vaccination on the transmission of varicella-zoster virus (VZV) in Italy, where vaccination is not mandatory. We tested 3179 serum samples, collected from September 1996 to October 1997, for specific anti-VZV antibodies using a commercially available ELISA. The results confirmed that varicella typically involves children (82·1% seroprevalence among 10- to 14-year-olds) and that the mean age of acquiring the infection seems to be increasing. The results also revealed that southern Italy, compared to the rest of the country, has a greater circulation of VZV and an earlier age of acquisition. The potential impact of mass vaccination among 12- to 18-month-old children on the epidemiological trend of the infection must be carefully considered, in that failure to reach high levels of coverage could lead to an increase in the mean age of acquisition, which is already occurring in Italy.

This study investigated the clinical characteristics of, and outcomes and risk factors for hospital mortality of 390 patients admitted with severe sepsis or septic shock in an intensive care unit (ICU). Prospectively collected data from patients collected between 1 July 2004 and 30 June 2006 were analysed. Overall hospital mortality was 49·7% and comorbidities were found in 40·3% of patients, the most common of which was haematological malignancy. The respiratory tract was the most common site of infection (50%). Hospital-acquired infections accounted for 55·6% of patients with Gram-negative bacteria predominant (68%). Multivariate analysis showed that acute respiratory distress syndrome, pulmonary artery catheter placement, comorbidities, hospital-acquired infection, APACHE II score and maximum LOD score, were independent risk factors for hospital mortality. In conclusion, severe sepsis and septic shock are common causes of ICU admission. Patients with risk factors for increased mortality should be carefully monitored and aggressive treatment administered.

The redispersal factor for bacteria-carrying particles from a contaminated floor was determined after mopping, blowing and walking activity. Walking gave the highest redispersal factor, 3·5×10−3 m−1, which was three times higher than for blowing and 17 times higher than for mopping. The mean die-away rate for the bacteria-carrying particles used was 1·9/h without ventilation and 14·3/h with ventilation. It was calculated that in the operating rooms less than 15% of the bacteria found in the air were redispersed floor bacteria.

The distribution in the environment of Naegleria fowleri, the causal agent of primary amoebic meningoencephalitis has been investigated in this study. N. fowleri was isolated only from a thermally polluted canal. These amoeboflagellates were not isolated from another thermally polluted canal in the neighbourhood indicating that, apart from high temperature, other factors are involved in the selective proliferation of N. fowleri. This species was absent in all other samples originating from two canals, a stream, two lakes, several reservoirs and slow sandfilters of a water supply service and also a water distribution network. Many other amoebae able to grow at 42° C. were found in different places. Most of the N. fowleri strains isolated were not virulent for mice, although they showed all the characteristics of the pathogenic strains.