Hypertension is a common comorbidity in COVID-19 patients. However, the association of hypertension with the severity and fatality of COVID-19 remain unclear. In the present meta-analysis, relevant studies reported the impacts of hypertension on SARS-CoV-2 infection were identified by searching PubMed, Elsevier Science Direct, Web of Science, Wiley Online Library, Embase and CNKI up to 20 March 2020. As the results shown, 12 publications with 2389 COVID-19 patients (674 severe cases) were included for the analysis of disease severity. The severity rate of COVID-19 in hypertensive patients was much higher than in non-hypertensive cases (37.58% vs 19.73%, pooled OR: 2.27, 95% CI: 1.80–2.86). Moreover, the pooled ORs of COVID-19 severity for hypertension vs. non-hypertension was 2.21 (95% CI: 1.58–3.10) and 2.32 (95% CI: 1.70–3.17) in age <50 years and ⩾50 years patients, respectively. Additionally, six studies with 151 deaths of 2116 COVID-19 cases were included for the analysis of disease fatality. The results showed that hypertensive patients carried a nearly 3.48-fold higher risk of dying from COVID-19 (95% CI: 1.72–7.08). Meanwhile, the pooled ORs of COVID-19 fatality for hypertension vs. non-hypertension was 6.43 (95% CI: 3.40–12.17) and 2.66 (95% CI: 1.27–5.57) in age <50 years and ⩾50 years patients, respectively. Neither considerable heterogeneity nor publication bias was observed in the present analysis. Therefore, our present results provided further evidence that hypertension could significantly increase the risks of severity and fatality of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The possible sources for the epidemic of bluetongue in Portugal at the beginning of July 1956 were examined. Introduction through authorized importation of domestic or wild ruminants was not feasible, since no cattle, sheep or goats were imported and the wild ruminants were confined to Lisbon Zoo, which was too far from the initial outbreaks. Weather maps were examined to see if the wind could have carried infected Culicoides midges from North Africa. On 21 June 1956 infected midges in Morocco could have been taken offshore by southeast winds and then carried by south winds unusual at that time of year to the south coast of Portugal. The 200–300 km sea crossing would have taken some 10 h and been by day when air temperatures near the sea surface were about 18–20 °C. Bluetongue had not been reported at that time in Morocco, and the possibility of the presence of the virus in Moroccan animals without clinical signs is discussed.

This paper describes virological and epidemiological features of an infection which killed two of three affected cheetahs at Whipsnade Park in 1977. Two animals had profuse skin lesions and the third had an acute haemorrhagic pneumonia. The outbreak was shown to be caused by cowpox virus. Cowpox virus is believed to circulate in small wild animals, but the source of infection was not traced despite virological and serological tests on 93 captive and 102 wild animals.

Sub-clinical infections did not occur in susceptible contact cheetahs. Immune globulin did not influence the outcome and smallpox vaccine does not take in cheetahs. Management of any future outbreak will rely on prompt diagnosis and segregation of infected animals.

One of the central tenets of modern infectious disease epidemiology is that an understanding of heterogeneities, both in host demography and transmission, allows control to be efficiently optimized. Due to the strong interactions present, households are one of the most important heterogeneities to consider, both in terms of predicting epidemic severity and as a target for intervention. We consider these effects in the context of pandemic influenza in Great Britain, and find that there is significant local (ward-level) variation in the basic reproductive ratio, with some regions predicted to suffer 50% faster growth rate of infection than the mean. Childhood vaccination was shown to be highly effective at controlling an epidemic, generally outperforming random vaccination and substantially reducing the variation between regions; only nine out of over 10 000 wards did not obey this rule and these can be identified as demographically atypical regions. Since these benefits of childhood vaccination are a product of correlations between household size and number of dependent children in the household, our results are qualitatively robust for a variety of disease scenarios.

RSV is the most important viral cause of pneumonia and bronchiolitis in children worldwide and has been associated with significant disease burden. With the renewed interest in RSV vaccines, we provide realistic estimates on duration, and influencing factors on RSV shedding which are required to better understand the impact of vaccination on the virus transmission dynamics. The data arise from a prospective study of 47 households (493 individuals) in rural Kenya, followed through a 6-month period of an RSV seasonal outbreak. Deep nasopharyngeal swabs were collected twice each week from all household members, irrespective of symptoms, and tested for RSV by multiplex PCR. The RSV G gene was sequenced. A total of 205 RSV infection episodes were detected in 179 individuals from 40 different households. The infection data were interval censored and assuming a random event time between observations, the average duration of virus shedding was 11·2 (95% confidence interval 10·1–12·3) days. The shedding durations were longer than previous estimates (3·9–7·4 days) based on immunofluorescence antigen detection or viral culture, and were shown to be strongly associated with age, severity of infection, and revealed potential interaction with other respiratory viruses. These findings are key to our understanding of the spread of this important virus and are relevant in the design of control programmes.

An outbreak of acute gastroenteritis of suspected viral aetiology occurred in April 2003 in the British Royal Fleet Auxillary ship (RFA) Argus deployed in the Northern Arabian Gulf. There were 37 cases amongst a crew of 400 personnel. Of 13 samples examined from cases amongst the crew, six enteric viruses were detected by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT–PCR). Five different viruses were identified including, three norovirus genotypes, a sapovirus and a rotavirus. No multiple infections were detected. A common food source was implicated in the outbreak and epidemiological analysis showed a statistically significant association with salad as the source of the outbreak, with a relative risk of 3·41 (95% confidence interval of 1·7–6·81) of eating salad on a particular date prior to the onset of symptoms. Faecal contamination of the salad at source was the most probable explanation for the diversity of viruses detected and characterized.

There are an estimated 277 000 cases of campylobacteriosis in Australia each year, most of which are thought to be sporadically acquired. To explore causes for these infections, we conducted a multi-centre case-control study of patients and community controls across five Australian States during 2001–2002. A total of 881 campylobacter cases and 833 controls aged ⩾5 years were recruited into the study. Crude logistic analyses were conducted within various food and non-food exposure groups. A final most parsimonious multivariable logistic regression model was developed and adjusted odds ratios (aOR), 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were derived together with adjusted population attributable risks (PAR). Consumption of undercooked chicken (aOR 4·7, 95% CI 2·6–8·4) and offal (aOR 2·0, 95% CI 1·0–4·0), ownership of domestic chickens aged <6 months (aOR 12·4, 95% CI 2·6–59·3) and domestic dogs aged <6 months (aOR 2·1, 95% CI 1·1–4·2) were found to be independent risk factors for illness in the final model. The PAR proportions indicate that eating chicken meat, either cooked or undercooked may account for approximately 30% of campylobacter cases that occur each year in Australia. These results justify the continued need for education of consumers and foodhandlers about the risks associated with the handling of raw chicken and the potential for cross-contamination.

Tuberculosis (TB) affects people globally and is being reconsidered as a serious public health problem in China. Reliable forecasting is useful for the prevention and control of TB. This study proposes a hybrid model combining autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) with a nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) neural network for forecasting the incidence of TB from January 2007 to March 2016. Prediction performance was compared between the hybrid model and the ARIMA model. The best-fit hybrid model was combined with an ARIMA (3,1,0) × (0,1,1)12 and NAR neural network with four delays and 12 neurons in the hidden layer. The ARIMA-NAR hybrid model, which exhibited lower mean square error, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error of 0·2209, 0·1373, and 0·0406, respectively, in the modelling performance, could produce more accurate forecasting of TB incidence compared to the ARIMA model. This study shows that developing and applying the ARIMA-NAR hybrid model is an effective method to fit the linear and nonlinear patterns of time-series data, and this model could be helpful in the prevention and control of TB.

A young child was admitted to hospital with haemolytic-uraemic syndrome caused by infection with a Shiga toxin 2-producing strain of Escherichia coli (STEC) O157. Five days before he became ill, the child had visited a small petting zoo. STEC O157 strains were isolated from faecal samples from goats and sheep housed on the farm. The human and the animal isolates were indistinguishable by molecular subtyping. The petting zoo voluntarily closed temporarily to prevent further cases of infection. Two out of 11 other, randomly selected petting zoos (including one deer park) visited subsequently, tested positive. Furthermore, during the study period there was one more notification of STEC O157 infection possibly linked with a farm visit. Although STEC O157 was indeed found in the petting zoo associated with this patient, transmission through animal contact could not be confirmed because the human isolate was not available for subtyping. The case study and the results of the other on-farm investigations highlight the risk of acquiring severe zoonotic infections during visits to petting zoos.

Sporadic outbreaks of cyclosporiasis, a common cause of protracted diarrhoea in underdeveloped countries, are often undetected and undiagnosed in industrial countries. In May 2001, an outbreak of Cyclospora cayetanensis gastroenteritis was identified in British Columbia, Canada, with 17 reported cases. We conducted a case-control study involving 12 out of the 17 reported and confirmed case patients. Eleven (92%) of the patients had consumed Thai basil, an essential ingredient in Vietnamese cuisine, compared to 3 out of 16 (19%) of the control patients (P=0·003). Trace-back investigations implicated Thai basil imported via the United States as the vehicle for this outbreak. This is the first documented sporadic outbreak of cyclosporiasis linked to Thai basil in Canada, and the first outbreak of cyclosporiasis identified in an ethnic immigrant population. This outbreak provides the opportunity to increase our understanding of this emerging pathogen and improve on our prevention and control for future outbreaks.

Complex hepatitis B (HBV) epidemiology makes it difficult to evaluate and compare effectiveness of different immunization policies. A method for doing so is presented using a mathematical model of HBV transmission dynamics which can represent universal infant and adolescent vaccination strategies and those targeted at genito-urinary (GU) clinic attenders and infants born to infectious mothers. Model structure, epidemiological underpinning, and parameterization, are described. Data from the UK National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles is used to define patterns of sexual activity and GU clinic attendance; data deficiencies are discussed, in particular that of UK seroprevalence of HBV markers stratified by age, sex, and risk factors. General model predictions of endemic HBV marker prevalence in homosexual and heterosexual populations seem consistent with published UK data. The simulations exhibit non-linearities in the impact of different vaccination strategies. Estimated number of carriers prevented per vaccine dose for each strategy provides a measure of costs and benefits, varying temporally over the course of a programme, and with level of vaccine coverage. Screening before vaccination markedly increases payback per dose in homosexuals but not in heterosexuals; mass infant vaccination gives the poorest effectiveness ratio and vaccination of infants after antenatal screening the best; in general, increasing vaccine coverage yields lower pay-back per dose. The model provides a useful framework for evaluating costs and benefits of immunization programmes, but for precise quantitative comparison more UK epidemiological data is urgently needed.

A total of 15662 clinical samples were analysed for enterovirus (EV) isolation in cell cultures during a 10-year period (1988–97). Furthermore, 210 isolates of EV obtained in primary laboratories within Spain from patients with meningitis were characterized. The total number of EV typed was 758, including 727 non-polio EV and 31 Sabin-like (SL) polioviruses. Twenty-eight EV serotypes were represented. Echoviruses comprised 90% (653/727) of fully typed non-polio EV. The four most prevalent serotypes were echovirus 30, echovirus 9, echovirus 6 and echovirus 4. Echovirus 30 was the main serotype associated with meningitis. Echovirus 9 was the aetiological agent in 20 outbreaks of meningitis while the occurrence of echovirus 6 was localized in 1 year (1997). Coxsackieviruses A and B occurred in 3 and 7% of the non-polio EV respectively. Coxsackievirus B5 presented the relative greater abundance. This paper examines the epidemiology of EV in Spain to serotype level over a 10-year period with special attention to non-polio EV associated with meningitis.

This is the first study to provide a comprehensive insight into the molecular epidemiology of endemic Clostridium difficile and particularly that associated with a recently recognized epidemic strain. We DNA fingerprinted all C. difficile isolates from the stools of patients with symptomatic antibiotic-associated diarrhoea and from repeated samples of the inanimate ward environment on two elderly medicine hospital wards over a 22-month period. Notably, C. difficile was not recoverable from either ward immediately before opening, but was found on both wards within 1–3 weeks of opening, and the level of environmental contamination rose markedly during the first 6 months of the study period. C. difficile infection (CDI) incidence data correlated significantly with the prevalence of environmental C. difficile on ward B (r = 0·76, P < 0·05) but not on ward A (r = 0·26, P > 0·05). We found that RAPD and RS–PCR typing had similar discriminatory power, although, despite fingerprinting over 200 C. difficile isolates, we identified only six distinct types. Only two distinct C. difficile strains were identified as causing both patient infection and ward contamination. Attempts to determine whether infected patients or contaminated environments are the prime source for cross-infection by C. difficile had limited success, as over 90% of C. difficile isolates were the UK epidemic clone. However, a non-epidemic strain caused a cluster of six cases of CDI, but was only isolated from the environment after the sixth patient became symptomatic. The initial absence of this strain from the environment implies patient-to-patient and/or staff-to-patient spread. In general, routine cleaning with detergent was unsuccessful at removing C. difficile from the environment. Understanding the epidemiology and virulence of prevalent strains is important if CDI is to be successfully controlled.

Over 4 million patients suffer nosocomial infections annually in the European Union. This study aimed to estimate the healthcare burden associated with healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) following surgery in France, and explore the potential impact of infection control strategies and interventions on the clinical and economic burden of disease. Data on the frequency of HAIs were gathered from the 2010 Programme de Médicalisation des Systèmes d'Information (PMSI), and cost data were taken from the 2009 Echelle Nationale de Coûts à Méthodologie Commune (ENCC). It was estimated that 3% of surgical procedures performed in 2010 in France resulted in infection, resulting in an annual cost of €57 892 715. Patients experiencing a HAI had a significantly increased mortality risk (4·15-fold) and an increased length of hospital stay (threefold). Scenario analysis in which HAI incidence following surgery was reduced by 8% (based on a study of the effectiveness of triclosan-coated sutures), suggested that, annually, 20 205 hospital days and €4 588 519 could be saved. Analyses of 20% and 30% reductions in incidence (based on an estimate of the number of preventable nosocomial infections) suggested that annual savings of €11 548 057 and €17 334 696, respectively, could be made. New infection control interventions which reduce HAI incidence during hospitalization for surgery have the potential to provide valuable cost savings to healthcare providers.

In a prolonged field trial a 4% chlorhexidine digluconate detergent scrub (HibiscrubR), that had earlier proved to be an effective hand disinfectant, was studied in hospital wards. Finger tips were found to harbour more bacteria than the hand dorsum and the samples collected from them yielded more information on the bacteriological and dermatological effects of hand disinfectants in practice.

In wards with a relatively low hand-washing frequency (less than 20 times in 8 hours) the bacteriological results resembled those obtained by in-use tests with volunteers. In the neonatal unit where the hand washing frequency was remarkably high, even occasionally over 100 times/8 h shift, an increase in the bacterial colony counts of the majority of the staff was recorded both before and after hand washing already after using the preparation for 1 week. Age, occupation and hand-washing frequency all correlated with the bacteriological results. Twenty-seven out of 37 persons complained of side effects such as wounds of finger tips and redness or heavy drying of the skin. Wounds, particularly on finger tips, resulted in the failure of disinfection. An increase in bacterial counts was sometimes noted without any dermatological or subjective changes. Drying of the skin was complained of less often when no increase in skin bacteria occurred.

After the changeover of washing practice to a detergent followed by a rinse with spirit solution containing chlorhexidine and glycerol a decrease was recorded in the bacterial counts. It is concluded that more attention should be paid to long-term testing of hand washing and disinfection methods to ensure optimum final results in practice. It is obvious that the knowledge obtained from short time in-use testing cannot be applied to all conditions of use.

Between April 1996 and March 1997 we examined 5093 samples of raw beef and lamb products for the presence of E. coli O157. Samples were purchased from 81 small butchers' shops in south Yorkshire. In March 1997 we also examined five samples of dried mint for the presence of E. coli O157.

Strains of E. coli O157 were isolated by enrichment culture in modified buffered peptone water followed by immunomagnetic separation and culture of magnetic beads onto cefixime tellurite sorbitol MacConkey agar. Strains were characterized by phage typing, toxin genotyping and plasmid analysis.

Strains of E. coli O157 were isolated from 72 (1·4%) of 5093 samples; it was isolated from 36 (1·1%) of 3216 samples of beef products and from 29 (2·9%) samples of lamb products. The highest prevalence was found in lamb sausages and lamb burgers where E. coli O157 was isolated from 3 (4·1%) of 73 and 18 (3·7%) of 484 samples respectively. Strains of E. coli O157 were isolated most frequently during early summer. Strains of E. coli O157 were also isolated from 2 of 5 samples of dried mint although we did not determine how the mint had become contaminated.

All isolates of E. coli O157 were Verocytotoxin-producing as determined by both Vero cell assay and DNA hybridization for the genes encoding Verocytotoxin and all were positive for the eaeA gene. A combination of phage typing, toxin genotyping and plasmid profile subdivided the 72 strains of E. coli isolated into 20 different subtypes, of which 18 were indistinguishable from strains isolated previously from cattle and sheep; of these 18 strains, 8 were indistinguishable from strains isolated from human cases of infection during the study period.

Twenty-eight pigs died in an outbreak of streptococcal meningitis in an East Anglian herd. Most were 10–14 weeks old. The outbreak lasted from January to April and was finally controlled by antibiotic therapy. A similar number of losses had occurred in the previous year though no diagnosis had then been made.

The causal agent appeared to be a haemolytic streptococcus belonging to group D and provisionally designated Streptococcus suis type 2. It is probably identical with de Moor's group R streptococcus which causes a similar disease in the Netherlands. It is serologically distinct from Streptococcus suis type 1 which causes meningitis in piglets. Type 2 infection in pigs appears to be widespread in England and Wales and to occur in animals up to the age of at least 14 weeks.

A comparison is drawn between Str. suis meningitis in pigs and group B streptococcal meningitis in human infants.

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is an infectious disease caused by enteroviruses, which usually occurs in children aged <5 years. In China, the HFMD situation is worsening, with increasing number of cases nationwide. Therefore, monitoring and predicting HFMD incidence are urgently needed to make control measures more effective. In this study, we applied an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast HFMD incidence in Sichuan province, China. HFMD infection data from January 2010 to June 2014 were used to fit the ARIMA model. The coefficient of determination (R2), normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and mean absolute percentage of error (MAPE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the constructed models. The fitted ARIMA model was applied to forecast the incidence of HMFD from April to June 2014. The goodness-of-fit test generated the optimum general multiplicative seasonal ARIMA (1,0,1) × (0,1,0)12 model (R2 = 0·692, MAPE = 15·982, BIC = 5·265), which also showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model (P = 0·893). The forecast incidence values of the ARIMA (1,0,1) × (0,1,0)12 model from July to December 2014 were 4103–9987, which were proximate forecasts. The ARIMA model could be applied to forecast HMFD incidence trend and provide support for HMFD prevention and control. Further observations should be carried out continually into the time sequence, and the parameters of the models could be adjusted because HMFD incidence will not be absolutely stationary in the future.

Eight sera from 125 cases of infectious mononucleosis (IM) were reactive for rubella-specific IgM in an M-antibody capture radioimmunoassay. The reactivity of individual sera varied depending upon the source of the rubella antigen used in the assay. One serum gave strongly positive results with some rubella haemagglutinating antigens but negative results with others and may have contained an IgM antibody which was capable of distinguishing between strains of rubella virus.

If the diagnosis of rubella is based solely on detection in solid-phase immunoassay of rubella-specific IgM, IM should be excluded.

Space–time clustering of people who fall acutely ill with jaundice, then slip into coma and death, is an alarming phenomenon, more markedly so when the victims are mostly or exclusively pregnant. Documentation of the peculiar, fatal predisposition of pregnant women during outbreaks of jaundice identifies hepatitis E and enables construction of its epidemic history. Between the last decade of the 18th century and the early decades of the 20th century, hepatitis E-like outbreaks were reported mainly from Western Europe and several of its colonies. During the latter half of the 20th century, reports of these epidemics, including those that became serologically confirmed as hepatitis E, emanated from, first, the eastern and southern Mediterranean littoral and, thereafter, Southern and Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and the rest of Africa. The dispersal has been accompanied by a trend towards more frequent and larger-scale occurrences. Epidemic and endemic hepatitis E still beset people inhabiting Asia and Africa, especially pregnant women and their fetuses and infants. Their relief necessitates not only accelerated access to potable water and sanitation but also vaccination against hepatitis E.