Local linear fitting is a popular nonparametric method in statistical and econometric modeling. Lu and Linton (2007, Econometric Theory23, 37–70) established the pointwise asymptotic distribution for the local linear estimator of a nonparametric regression function under the condition of near epoch dependence. In this paper, we further investigate the uniform consistency of this estimator. The uniform strong and weak consistencies with convergence rates for the local linear fitting are established under mild conditions. Furthermore, general results regarding uniform convergence rates for nonparametric kernel-based estimators are provided. The results of this paper will be of wide potential interest in time series semiparametric modeling.

We show that the empirical distribution of the roots of the vector autoregression (VAR) of order p fitted to T observations of a general stationary or nonstationary process converges to the uniform distribution over the unit circle on the complex plane, when both T and p tend to infinity so that (ln T)/p → 0 and p3/T → 0. In particular, even if the process is a white noise, nearly all roots of the estimated VAR will converge by absolute value to unity. For fixed p, we derive an asymptotic approximation to the expected empirical distribution of the estimated roots as T → ∞. The approximation is concentrated in a circular region in the complex plane for various data generating processes and sample sizes.

This paper derives sufficient conditions for global identification in nonlinear models characterized by a finite number of unconditional moment restrictions. The main contribution of this paper is to provide a set of assumptions that are alternative to those of Gale-Nikaidô-Fisher-Rothenberg, and which when satisfied guarantee that the moment conditions globally identify the parameters of interest.

The classical nonstationary autoregressive models are both linear and Markov. They include unit root and cointegration models. A possible nonlinear extension is to relax the linearity and at the same time keep general properties such as nonstationarity and the Markov property. A null recurrent Markov chain is nonstationary, and β-null recurrence is of vital importance for statistical inference in nonstationary Markov models, such as, e.g., in nonparametric estimation in nonlinear cointegration within the Markov models. The standard random walk is an example of a null recurrent Markov chain.

In this paper we suggest that the concept of null recurrence is an appropriate nonlinear generalization of the linear unit root concept and as such it may be a starting point for a nonlinear cointegration concept within the Markov framework. In fact, we establish the link between null recurrent processes and autoregressive unit root models. It turns out that null recurrence is closely related to the location of the roots of the characteristic polynomial of the state space matrix and the associated eigenvectors. Roughly speaking the process is β-null recurrent if one root is on the unit circle, null recurrent if two distinct roots are on the unit circle, whereas the others are inside the unit circle. It is transient if there are more than two roots on the unit circle. These results are closely connected to the random walk being null recurrent in one and two dimensions but transient in three dimensions. We also give an example of a process that by appropriate adjustments can be made β-null recurrent for any β ∈ (0, 1) and can also be made null recurrent without being β-null recurrent.

We study the dependence properties of stationary Markov chains generated by Archimedean copulas. Under some simple regularity conditions, we show that regular variation of the Archimedean generator at zero and one implies geometric ergodicity of the associated Markov chain. We verify our assumptions for a range of Archimedean copulas used in applications.

When the covariance between the risk factors of asset prices is due to both Brownian and jump components, the realized covariation (RC) approaches the sum of the integrated covariation (IC) with the sum of the co-jumps, as the observation frequency increases to infinity, in a finite and fixed time horizon. In this paper the two components are consistently separately estimated within a semimartingale framework with possibly infinite activity jumps. The threshold (or truncated) estimator is used, which substantially excludes from RC all terms containing jumps. Unlike in Jacod (2007, Universite de Paris-6) and Jacod (2008, Stochastic Processes and Their Applications 118, 517–559), no assumptions on the volatilities’ dynamics are required. In the presence of only finite activity jumps: 1) central limit theorems (CLTs) for and for further measures of dependence between the two Brownian parts are obtained; the estimation error asymptotic variance is shown to be smaller than for the alternative estimators of IC in the literature; 2) by also selecting the observations as in Hayashi and Yoshida (2005, Bernoulli 11, 359–379), robustness to nonsynchronous data is obtained. The proposed estimators are shown to have good finite sample performances in Monte Carlo simulations even with an observation frequency low enough to make microstructure noises’ impact on data negligible.

An asymptotic theory is developed for a weakly identified cointegrating regression model in which the regressor is a nonlinear transformation of an integrated process. Weak identification arises from the presence of a loading coefficient for the nonlinear function that may be close to zero. In that case, standard nonlinear cointegrating limit theory does not provide good approximations to the finite-sample distributions of nonlinear least squares estimators, resulting in potentially misleading inference. A new local limit theory is developed that approximates the finite-sample distributions of the estimators uniformly well irrespective of the strength of the identification. An important technical component of this theory involves new results showing the uniform weak convergence of sample covariances involving nonlinear functions to mixed normal and stochastic integral limits. Based on these asymptotics, we construct confidence intervals for the loading coefficient and the nonlinear transformation parameter and show that these confidence intervals have correct asymptotic size. As in other cases of nonlinear estimation with integrated processes and unlike stationary process asymptotics, the properties of the nonlinear transformations affect the asymptotics and, in particular, give rise to parameter dependent rates of convergence and differences between the limit results for integrable and asymptotically homogeneous functions.

This paper proposes Pearson-type statistics based on implied probabilities to detect structural change. The class of generalized empirical likelihood estimators (see Smith 1997, The Economic Journal107, 503–519) assigns a set of implied probabilities to each observation such that moment conditions are satisfied. The proposed test statistics for structural change are based on the information content in these implied probabilities. We consider cases of structural change with unknown breakpoint that can occur in the parameters of interest or in the overidentifying restrictions used to estimate these parameters. We also propose a structural change test based on implied probabilities that is robust to weak identification or cases in which parameters are completely unidentified. The test statistics considered here have competitive size and power properties. Moreover, they are computed in a single step, which eliminates the need to compute the weighting matrix required for generalized method of moments estimation.

This paper considers the factor model Xt = ΛFt + et. Assuming a normal distribution for the idiosyncratic error et conditional on the factors {Ft}, conditional maximum likelihood estimators of the factor and factor-loading spaces are derived. These estimators are called generalized principal component estimators (GPCEs) without the normality assumption. This paper derives asymptotic distributions of the GPCEs of the factor and factor-loading spaces. It is shown that variance of the GPCE of the common component is smaller than that of the principal component estimator studied in Bai (2003, Econometrica 71, 135–172). The approximate variance of the forecasting error using the GPCE-based factor estimates is derived and shown to be smaller than that based on the principal component estimator. The feasible GPCE (FGPCE) of the factor space is shown to be asymptotically equivalent to the GPCE. The GPCE and FGPCE are shown to be more efficient than the principal component estimator in finite samples.

Models with single-index structures are among the many existing popular semiparametric approaches for either the conditional mean or the conditional variance. This paper focuses on a single-index model for the conditional quantile. We propose an adaptive estimation procedure and an iterative algorithm which, under mild regularity conditions, is proved to converge with probability 1. The resulted estimator of the single-index parametric vector is root-n consistent, asymptotically normal, and based on simulation study, is more efficient than the average derivative method in Chaudhuri, Doksum, and Samarov (1997, Annals of Statistics 19, 760–777). The estimator of the link function converges at the usual rate for nonparametric estimation of a univariate function. As an empirical study, we apply the single-index quantile regression model to Boston housing data. By considering different levels of quantile, we explore how the covariates, of either social or environmental nature, could have different effects on individuals targeting the low, the median, and the high end of the housing market.

This paper derives the limiting distributions of alternative jackknife instrumental variables (JIV) estimators and gives formulas for accompanying consistent standard errors in the presence of heteroskedasticity and many instruments. The asymptotic framework includes the many instrument sequence of Bekker (1994, Econometrica 62, 657–681) and the many weak instrument sequence of Chao and Swanson (2005, Econometrica 73, 1673–1691). We show that JIV estimators are asymptotically normal and that standard errors are consistent provided that as n→∞, where Kn and rn denote, respectively, the number of instruments and the concentration parameter. This is in contrast to the asymptotic behavior of such classical instrumental variables estimators as limited information maximum likelihood, bias-corrected two-stage least squares, and two-stage least squares, all of which are inconsistent in the presence of heteroskedasticity, unless Kn/rn→0. We also show that the rate of convergence and the form of the asymptotic covariance matrix of the JIV estimators will in general depend on the strength of the instruments as measured by the relative orders of magnitude of rn and Kn.

Economic data are frequently generated by stochastic processes that can be modeled as realizations of random functions (functional data). This paper adapts the specification test for functional data developed by Bugni, Hall, Horowitz, and Neumann (2009, Econometrics Journal12, S1–S18) to the presence of missing observations. By using a worst case scenario approach, our method is able to extract the information available in the observed portion of the data while being agnostic about the nature of the missing observations. The presence of missing data implies that our test will not only result in the rejection or lack of rejection of the null hypothesis, but it may also be inconclusive.

Under the null hypothesis, our specification test will reject the null hypothesis with a probability that, in the limit, does not exceed the significance level of the test. Moreover, the power of the test converges to one whenever the distribution of the observations conveys that the null hypothesis is false.

Monte Carlo evidence shows that the test may produce informative results (either rejection or lack of rejection of the null hypothesis) even under the presence of significant amounts of missing data. The procedure is illustrated by testing whether the Burdett–Mortensen labor market model is the correct framework for wage paths constructed from the National Longitudinal Survery of Youth, 1979 survey.

This paper investigates the bias and the weak Bahadur representation of a local polynomial estimator of the conditional quantile function and its derivatives. The bias and Bahadur remainder term are studied uniformly with respect to the quantile level, the covariates, and the smoothing parameter. The order of the local polynomial estimator can be higher than the differentiability order of the conditional quantile function. Applications of the results deal with global optimal consistency rates of the local polynomial quantile estimator, performance of random bandwidths, and estimation of the conditional quantile density function. The latter allows us to obtain a simple estimator of the conditional quantile function of the private values in a first-price sealed bids auction under the independent private values paradigm and risk neutrality.

We propose a semiparametric test for the value of coefficients in models with conditional moment restrictions that has correct size regardless of identification strength. The test is in essence an Anderson-Rubin (AR) test using nonparametrically estimated instruments to which we apply a standard error correction. We show that the test is (1) always size-correct, (2) consistent when identification is not too weak, and (3) asymptotically equivalent to an infeasible AR test when identification is sufficiently strong. We moreover prove that under homoskedasticity and strong identification our test has a limiting noncentral chi-square distribution under a sequence of local alternatives, where the noncentrality parameter is given by a quadratic form of the inverse of the semiparametric efficiency bound.

This paper considers the problem of estimating expected values of functions that are inversely weighted by an unknown density using the k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) method. It establishes the -consistency and the asymptotic normality of an estimator that allows for strictly stationary time-series data. The consistency of the Bartlett estimator of the derived asymptotic variance is also established. The proposed estimator is also shown to be asymptotically semiparametric efficient in the independent random sampling scheme. Monte Carlo experiments show that the proposed estimator performs well in finite sample applications.

This paper considers a moments-based nonlinear estimator that is $\root \of T $-consistent and uniformly asymptotically normal irrespective of the degree of persistence of the forcing process. These properties hold for linear autoregressive models, linear predictive regressions, and certain nonlinear dynamic models. Asymptotic normality is obtained because the moments are chosen so that the objective function is uniformly bounded in probability and so that a central limit theorem can be applied. Critical values from the normal distribution can be used irrespective of the treatment of the deterministic terms. Simulations show that the estimates are precise and the t-test has good size in the parameter region where the least squares estimates usually yield distorted inference.

In this paper we study the convergence to fractional Brownian motion for long memory time series having independent innovations with infinite second moment. For the sake of applications we derive the self-normalized version of this theorem. The study is motivated by models arising in economic applications where often the linear processes have long memory, and the innovations have heavy tails.

This paper studies the problem of estimating the set of finite-dimensional parameter values defined by a finite number of moment inequality or equality conditions and gives conditions under which the estimator defined by the set of parameter values that satisfy the estimated versions of these conditions is consistent in Hausdorff metric. This paper also suggests extremum estimators that with probability approaching 1 agree with the set consisting of parameter values that satisfy the sample versions of the moment conditions. In particular, it is shown that the set of minimizers of the sample generalized method of moments (GMM) objective function is consistent for the set of minimizers of the population GMM objective function in Hausdorff metric.

The Markov property is a fundamental property in time series analysis and is often assumed in economic and financial modeling. We develop a new test for the Markov property using the conditional characteristic function embedded in a frequency domain approach, which checks the implication of the Markov property in every conditional moment (if it exists) and over many lags. The proposed test is applicable to both univariate and multivariate time series with discrete or continuous distributions. Simulation studies show that with the use of a smoothed nonparametric transition density-based bootstrap procedure, the proposed test has reasonable sizes and all-around power against several popular non-Markov alternatives in finite samples. We apply the test to a number of financial time series and find some evidence against the Markov property.

The family of multiplicative error models, introduced by Engle (2002, Journal of Applied Econometrics 17, 425–446), has attracted considerable attention in recent literature for modeling positive random variables, such as the duration between trades at a stock exchange, volume transactions, and squared log returns. Such models are also applicable to other positive variables such as waiting time in a queue, daily/hourly rainfall, and demand for electricity. This paper develops a new method for testing the lack-of-fit of a given parametric multiplicative error model having a Markov structure. The test statistic is of Kolmogorov–Smirnov type based on a particular martingale transformation of a marked empirical process. The test is asymptotically distribution free, is consistent against a large class of fixed alternatives, and has nontrivial asymptotic power against a class of nonparametric local alternatives converging to the null hypothesis at the rate of O (n–1/2). In a simulation study, the test performed better overall than the general purpose Ljung–Box Q-test, a Lagrange multiplier type test, and a generalized moment test. We illustrate the testing procedure by considering two data examples.