We build and describe an agent-based model: the Surprise Game. The game comprises a “world” of 30 firms, each of which has to survive (and, if possible, prosper) in its environment, which is nothing more than the other 29 firms. Each firm has to latch onto one or other of the four strategies that are predicted by the theory of plural rationality but has to relinquish that strategy and latch onto one of the others if it finds itself surprised. This model illustrates the dynamics of the world as described by the theory of plural rationality which are more similar to the dynamics of the actual world than economic models that assume equilibriums that are occasionally disturbed by shocks. This model and the theory of plural rationality provide insights and ideas for further work for actuaries.

In this article we want to motivate and analyse a wide family of reserving models, called linear stochastic reserving methods (LSRMs). The main idea behind them is the assumption that the (conditionally) expected changes of claim properties during a development period are proportional to exposures which depend linearly on the past. This means the discussion about the choice of reserving methods can be based on heuristic reasons about exposures driving the claims development, which in our opinion is much better than a pure philosophic approach. Moreover, the assumptions of LSRMs do not include the independence of accident periods.

We will see that many common reserving methods, like the Chain-Ladder-Method, the Bornhuetter-Ferguson-Method and the Complementary-Loss-Ratio-Method, can be interpreted in this way. But using the LSRM framework you can do more. For instance you can couple different triangles via exposures. This leads to reserving methods which look at a whole bundle of triangles at once and use the information of all triangles in order to estimate the future development of each of them.

We will present unbiased estimators for the expected ultimate and estimators for the mean squared error of prediction, which may become an integral part of IFRS 4. Moreover, we will look at the one period solvency reserving risk, which already is an important part of Solvency II, and present a corresponding estimator.

Finally we will present two examples that illustrate some features of LSRMs.

When hedging longevity risk with standardized contracts, the hedger needs to calibrate the hedge carefully so that it can effectively reduce the risk. In this article, we present a calibration method that is based on matching mortality rate sensitivities. Specifically, we introduce a measure called key q-duration, which allows us to estimate the price sensitivity of a life-contingent liability to each portion of the underlying mortality curve. Given this measure, one can easily construct a longevity hedge with a small number of q-forward contracts. We further propose an extension for hedging the longevity risk associated with multiple birth cohorts, and another extension for accommodating population basis risk.

In this paper we describe a new approach to modelling the development of claims run-off triangles. This method replaces the usual ad hoc practical process of extrapolating a development pattern to obtain tail factors with an objective procedure. An example is given, illustrating the results in a practical context, and the WinBUGS code is supplied.

Within the European Union, risk-based funding requirements for insurance companies are currently being revised as part of the Solvency II project. However, many life insurers struggle with the implementation, which to a large extent appears to be due to a lack of know-how regarding both, stochastic modeling and efficient techniques for the numerical implementation.

The current paper addresses these problems by providing a mathematical framework for the derivation of the required risk capital and by reviewing different alternatives for the numerical implementation based on nested simulations. In particular, we seek to provide guidance for practitioners by illustrating and comparing the different techniques based on numerical experiments.

By adding the information of reported count data to a classical triangle of reserving data, we derive a suprisingly simple method for forecasting IBNR and RBNS claims. A simple relationship between development factors allows to involve and then estimate the reporting and payment delay. Bootstrap methods provide prediction errors and make possible the inference about IBNR and RBNS claims, separately.

Global warming has more than doubled the likelihood of extreme weather events, e.g. the 2003 European heat wave, the growing intensity of rain and snow in the Northern Hemisphere, and the increasing risk of flooding in the United Kingdom. It has also induced an increasing number of deadly tropical cyclones with a continuing trend. Many individual meteorological dynamic simulations and statistical models are available for forecasting hurricanes but they neither forecast well hurricane intensity nor produce clear-cut consensus. We develop a novel hurricane forecasting model by straddling two seemingly unrelated disciplines — physical science and finance — based on the well known price discovery function of trading in financial markets. Traders of hurricane derivative contracts employ all available forecasting models, public or proprietary, to forecast hurricanes in order to make their pricing and trading decisions. By using transactional price changes of these contracts that continuously clear the market supply and demand as the predictor, and with calibration to extract the embedded hurricane information by developing hurricane futures and futures option pricing models, one can gain a forward-looking market-consensus forecast out of all of the individual forecasting models employed. Our model can forecast when a hurricane will make landfall, how destructive it will be, and how this destructive power will evolve from inception to landing. While the NHC (National Hurricane Center) blends 50 plus individual forecasting results for its consensus model forecasts using a subjective approach, our aggregate is market-based. Believing their proprietary forecasts are sufficiently different from our market-based forecasts, traders could also examine the discrepancy for a potential trading opportunity using hurricane derivatives. We also provide a real case analysis of Hurricane Irene in 2011 using our methodology.

Regression techniques are applied to an unbalanced panel data that includes 68 countries observed over a ten-year period, to explore the factors that affect non-life insurance demand across nations. While previous literature has discovered several significant economic, demographic, and institutional variables, little attention has been devoted to cultural dimensions. We find that non-life insurance consumption is adversely impacted in countries where a large fraction of the population has Islamic beliefs. Also highly significant are three of the cultural scores developed by Hofstede in a celebrated study: Power Distance, Individualism, and Uncertainty Avoidance. An important finding is that culture impacts non-life insurance more in affluent countries, with an adjusted R-square coefficient increasing by 11.7%, than in developing countries where the R-square coefficient increase due to cultural impacts is only 1.2%. These results have implications for multinational insurers seeking to enter a new market. Ceteris Paribus, these insurers should target countries, and population segments within these countries, that exhibit low Power Distance, and high Individualism and Uncertainty Avoidance scores.

In the paper we introduce a generalization of the mean-value principle under Cumulative Prospect Theory. This new method involves some well-known ways of pricing insurance contracts described in the actuarial literature. Properties of this premium principle, such as translation and scale invariance, additivity for independent risks, risk loading and others are studied.

In this paper, we investigate the problem of purchasing a reinsurance policy that minimizes the risk-adjusted value of an insurer's liability, where the valuation is carried out using a cost-of-capital approach. In order to exclude the moral hazard, we assume that both the insurer and reinsurer are obligated to pay more for larger loss in a typical reinsurance treaty. Moreover, the reinsurance premium principle is assumed to satisfy three axioms: law invariance, risk loading and preserving convex order. The proposed class of premium principles is quite general in the sense that it contains all the widely used premium principles except Esscher principle listed in Young (2004). When capital at risk is measured by the value at risk (VaR) or conditional value at risk (CVaR), we find it is optimal for the insurer to cede two separate layers over the prescribed premium principles. By imposing an additional weak constraint on the premium principle, we further get that the reinsurance in the form of a layer is optimal. Finally, to illustrate the applicability of our results, we derive explicitly the optimal one-layer reinsurance for expected value principle and Wang's premium principle, and show that two-layer reinsurance may be optimal for Dutch premium principle.

Actuaries are often faced with the task of estimating tails of loss distributions from just a few observations. Thus estimates of tail probabilities (reinsurance prices) and percentiles (solvency capital requirements) are typically subject to substantial parameter uncertainty. We study the bias and MSE of estimators of tail probabilities and percentiles, with focus on 1-parameter exponential families. Using asymptotic arguments it is shown that tail estimates are subject to significant positive bias. Moreover, the use of bootstrap predictive distributions, which has been proposed in the actuarial literature as a way of addressing parameter uncertainty, is seen to double the estimation bias. A bias corrected estimator is thus proposed. It is then shown that the MSE of the MLE, the parametric bootstrap and the bias corrected estimators only differ in terms of order O(n−2), which provides decision-makers with some flexibility as to which estimator to use. The accuracy of asymptotic methods, even for small samples, is demonstrated exactly for the exponential and related distributions, while other 1-parameter distributions are considered in a simulation study. We argue that the presence of positive bias may be desirable in solvency capital calculations, though not necessarily in pricing problems.

A variable annuity (VA) is a deferred annuity that allows an annuitant to invest his/her contributions into a range of mutual funds. A separate account termed as sub-account is set up for the investment. Unlike a mutual fund, a VA offers a guaranteed minimum death benefit or GMDB and often offers a guaranteed minimum living benefit or GMLB during the accumulation phase of the VA contract. Almost all the research to date has focused on single premium variable annuities (SPVAs), i.e. it is assumed that an annuitant makes a single lump-sum contribution at the time of issue. In this paper, we study flexible premium variable annuities (FPVAs) that allow contributions during the accumulation phase. We derive a valuation formula for guarantees embedded in FPVAs and show that the delta hedging strategy for an FPVA is substantially different from that for an SPVA. The numerical examples illustrate that the cost in the form of mortality and expense (M&E) fee for an FPVA in many situations is significantly higher than the cost for a similar SPVA. This finding suggests that the current pricing practice by most VA providers that charges the same M&E fee for both should be re-examined.

In the present work, we study the optimal reinsurance decision problem in which the Average Value-at-Risk of the retained loss is minimized under Wang's premium principle and is also subject to either (1) a budget constraint on reinsurance premium, or (2) a reinsurer's probabilistic benchmark constraint of his potential loss. We show that the optimal reinsurance is a single-insurance layer under Constraint (1), and a cap insurance or a double-insurance layer under Constraint (2); moreover, under Constraint (2), we further establish that under most common circumstances (see Remark after Theorem 3), a cap insurance will suffice to be optimal. Finally, some numerical illustrations will be provided.

In this paper, we introduce a class of multivariate Erlang mixtures and present its desirable properties. We show that a multivariate Erlang mixture could be an ideal multivariate parametric model for insurance modeling, especially when modeling dependence is a concern. When multivariate losses are governed by a multivariate Erlang mixture, many quantities of interest such as joint density and Laplace transform, moments, and Kendall's tau have a closed form. Further, the class is closed under convolutions and mixtures, which enables us to model aggregate losses in a straightforward way. We also introduce a new concept called quasi-comonotonicity that can be useful to derive an upper bound for individual losses in a multivariate stochastic order and upper bounds for stop-loss premiums of the aggregate loss. Finally, an EM algorithm tailored to multivariate Erlang mixtures is presented and numerical experiments are performed to test the efficiency of the algorithm.

We propose a nonhomogeneous Poisson hidden Markov model for a time series ofclaim counts that accounts for both seasonal variations and random fluctuations in the claims intensity. It assumes that the parameters of the intensity function for the nonhomogeneous Poisson distribution vary according to an (unobserved) underlying Markov chain. This can apply to natural phenomena that evolve in a seasonal environment. For example, hurricanes that are subject to random fluctuations (El Niño-La Niña cycles) affect insurance claims. The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is used to calculate the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of this dynamic Poisson hidden Markov model. Statistical applications of this model to Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms data are discussed.

Tail comonotonicity, or asymptotic full dependence, is proposed as a reasonable conservative dependence structure for modeling dependent risks. Some sufficient conditions have been obtained to justify the conservativity of tail comonotonicity. Simulation studies also suggest that, by using tail comonotonicity, one does not lose too much accuracy but gain reasonable conservative risk measures, especially when considering high scenario risks. A copula model with tail comonotonicity is applied to an auto insurance dataset. Particular models for tail comonotonicity for loss data can be based on the BB2 and BB3 copula families and their multivariate extensions.

For the classical model of risk theory, we consider the covariance between the surplus prior to and at ruin, given that ruin occurs. A general expression for this covariance is given when the initial surplus u is zero, and we show that the covariance (and hence the correlation coefficient) between these two variables is positive, zero or negative according to the equilibrium distribution of the claim size distribution having a coefficient of variation greater than, equal to, or less than one. For positive values of u, the formula for the covariance may not always lead to explicit results and we thus also study its asymptotic behaviour. Our results are illustrated by a number of examples.

We study pricing and hedging for an insurance payment process. We investigate a Black-Scholes financial model with stochastic coefficients and a payment process with death, survival and annuity claims driven by a point process with a stochastic intensity. The dependence of the claims and the intensity on the financial market and on an additional background noise (correlated index, longevity risk) is allowed. We establish a general modeling framework for no-good-deal, local mean-variance and ambiguity risk pricing and hedging. We show that these three valuation approaches are equivalent under appropriate formulations. We characterize the price and the hedging strategy as a solution to a backward stochastic differential equation. The results could be applied to pricing and hedging of variable annuities, surrender options under an irrational lapse behavior and mortality derivatives.

This paper proposes multivariate versions of the continuous Lindley mixture of Poisson distributions considered by Sankaran (1970). This new class of distributions can be used for modelling multivariate dependent count data when marginal overdispersion is present. After discussing some of its properties, a general multivariate model with Poisson-Lindley marginals and with a flexible covariance structure is proposed. Several specific models as well as one that allows correlations of any sign are considered, and then some estimation methods are discussed. Finally, some illustrative examples are given for fitting and demonstrating the usefulness of these bivariate distributions.

Experience and exposure rating are traditionally considered to be independent but complementary methods for pricing property per risk excess of loss reinsurance. Strengths and limitations of these techniques are well-known. In practice, both methods often lead to quite different prices. In this paper we show that limitations of traditional experience rating can be overcome by taking into account historical profile information by means of exposure curves. For pricing unused or rarely used capacity, we propose to use exposure rating, calibrated on the experience rate of a working layer. We compare the method presented with more traditional methods based on the information which is generally available to the reinsurer.