This paper considers a branching process generated by an offspring distribution F with mean m < ∞ and variance σ2 < ∞ and such that, at each generation n, there is an observed δ-migration, according to a binomial law Bpvn*Nnbef which depends on the total population size Nnbef. The δ-migration is defined as an emigration, an immigration or a null migration, depending on the value of δ, which is assumed constant throughout the different generations. The process with δ-migration is a generation-dependent Galton-Watson process, whereas the observed process is not in general a martingale. Under the assumption that the process with δ-migration is supercritical, we generalize for the observed migrating process the results relative to the Galton-Watson supercritical case that concern the asymptotic behaviour of the process and the estimation of m and σ2, as n → ∞. Moreover, an asymptotic confidence interval of the initial population size is given.

A number of stationary stochastic processes are presented with properties pertinent to modelling time series from turbulence and finance. Specifically, the one-dimensional marginal distributions have log-linear tails and the autocorrelation may have two or more time scales. Discrete time models with a given marginal distribution are constructed as sums of independent autoregressions. A similar construction is made in continuous time by considering sums of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-type processes. To prepare for this, a new property of self-decomposable distributions is presented. Also another, rather different, construction of stationary processes with generalized logistic marginal distributions as an infinite sum of Gaussian processes is proposed. In this way processes with continuous sample paths can be constructed. Multivariate versions of the various constructions are also given.

An unbiased stereological estimator for surface area density is derived for gradient surface processes which form a particular class of non-stationary spatial surface processes. Vertical planar sections are used for the estimation. The variance of the estimator is studied and found to be infinite for certain types of surface processes. A modification of the estimator is presented which exhibits finite variance.

Mixings of stationary Poisson hyperplane tessellations in d-dimensional Euclidean space are considered. The intention of the paper is to show that the 0-cell of a mixed stationary Poisson hyperplane tessellation Y is in some sense larger than that of stationary Poisson hyperplane tessellations Y' with the same intensity and directional distribution as Y. Related results concerning the moments for the volume of the 0-cell are derived. In special cases, similar statements with respect to the typical cell are proved.

Much of the literature in reliability and survival analysis considers failure models indexed by a single scale. There are situations which require that failure be described by several scales. An example from reliability is items under warranty whose failure is recorded by time and amount of use. An example from survival analysis is the death of a mine worker which is noted by age and the duration of exposure to dust.

This paper proposes an approach for developing probabilistic models indexed by two scales: time, and usage, a quantity that is related to time. The relationship between the scales is described by an additive hazards model. The evolution of usage is described by stochastic processes like the Poisson, the gamma and the Markov additive. The paper concludes with an application involving the setting of warranties. Two features differentiate this work from related efforts: a use of specific processes for describing usage, and a use of Monte Carlo techniques for generating the models.

This paper is devoted to the investigation of limit theorems for extremes with random sample size under general dependence-independence conditions for samples and random sample size indexes. Limit theorems of weak convergence type are obtained as well as functional limit theorems for extremal processes with random sample size indexes.

We give formulae for different types of contact distribution functions for stationary (not necessarily Poisson) Voronoi tessellations in ℝd in terms of the Palm void probabilities of the generating point process. Moreover, using the well-known relationship between the linear contact distribution and the chord length distribution we derive a closed form expression for the mean chord length in terms of the two-point Palm distribution and the pair correlation function of the generating point process. The results obtained are specified for Voronoi tessellations generated by Poisson cluster and Gibbsian processes, respectively.

We study a point process model with stochastic intensities for a particular branching population of individuals of two types. Type-I individuals immigrate into the population at the times of a Poisson process. During their lives they generate type-II individuals according to a random age dependent birth rate, which themselves may multiply and die. Living type-II descendants increase the death intensity of their type-I ancestor, and conversely, the multiplication and dying intensities of type-II individuals may depend on the life situation of their type-I ancestor. We show that the probability generating function of the marginal distribution of a type-I individual's life process, conditioned on its individual infection and death risk, satisfies an initial value problem of a partial differential equation, and derive its solution. This allows for the determination of additional distributions of observable random variables as well as for describing the complete population process.

Analytic approximations are derived for the distribution of the first crossing time of a straight-line boundary by a d-dimensional Bessel process and its discrete time analogue. The main ingredient for the approximations is the conditional probability that the process crossed the boundary before time m, given its location beneath the boundary at time m. The boundary crossing probability is of interest as the significance level and power of a sequential test comparing d+1 treatments using an O'Brien-Fleming (1979) stopping boundary (see Betensky 1996). Also, it is shown by DeLong (1980) to be the limiting distribution of a nonparametric test statistic for multiple regression. The approximations are compared with exact values from the literature and with values from a Monte Carlo simulation.

We derive formulas for the first- and higher-order derivatives of the steady state performance measures for changes in transition matrices of irreducible and aperiodic Markov chains. Using these formulas, we obtain a Maclaurin series for the performance measures of such Markov chains. The convergence range of the Maclaurin series can be determined. We show that the derivatives and the coefficients of the Maclaurin series can be easily estimated by analysing a single sample path of the Markov chain. Algorithms for estimating these quantities are provided. Markov chains consisting of transient states and multiple chains are also studied. The results can be easily extended to Markov processes. The derivation of the results is closely related to some fundamental concepts, such as group inverse, potentials, and realization factors in perturbation analysis. Simulation results are provided to illustrate the accuracy of the single sample path based estimation. Possible applications to engineering problems are discussed.

The immigration processes associated with a given branching particle system are formulated by skew convolution semigroups. It is shown that every skew convolution semigroup corresponds uniquely to a locally integrable entrance law for the branching particle system. The immigration particle system may be constructed using a Poisson random measure based on a Markovian measure determined by the entrance law. In the special case where the underlying process is a minimal Brownian motion in a bounded domain, a general representation is given for locally integrable entrance laws for the branching particle system. The convergence of immigration particle systems to measure-valued immigration processes is also studied.

Let Mn denote the size of the largest amongst the first n generations of a simple branching process. It is shown for near critical processes with a finite offspring variance that the law of Mn/n, conditioned on no extinction at or before n, has a non-defective weak limit. The proof uses a conditioned functional limit theorem deriving from the Feller-Lindvall (CB) diffusion limit for branching processes descended from increasing numbers of ancestors. Subsidiary results are given about hitting time laws for CB diffusions and Bessel processes.

In a real n-1 dimensional affine space E, consider a tetrahedron T0, i.e. the convex hull of n points α1, α2, …, αn of E. Choose n independent points β1, β2, …, βn randomly and uniformly in T0, thus obtaining a new tetrahedron T1 contained in T0. Repeat the operation with T1 instead of T0, obtaining T2, and so on. The sequence of the Tk shrinks to a point Y of T0 and this note computes the distribution of the barycentric coordinates of Y with respect to (α1, α2, …, αn) (Corollary 2.3). We also obtain the explicit distribution of Y in more general cases. The technique used is to reduce the problem to the study of a random walk on the semigroup of stochastic (n,n) matrices, and this note is a geometrical application of a former result of Chamayou and Letac (1994).

Let n points be placed independently in ν-dimensional space according to the standard ν-dimensional normal distribution. Let Mn be the longest edge-length of the minimal spanning tree on these points; equivalently let Mn be the infimum of those r such that the union of balls of radius r/2 centred at the points is connected. We show that the distribution of (2 log n)1/2Mn - bn converges weakly to the Gumbel (double exponential) distribution, where bn are explicit constants with bn ~ (ν - 1)log log n. We also show the same result holds if Mn is the longest edge-length for the nearest neighbour graph on the points.

We present an estimation procedure and analyse spectral properties of stochastic processes of the kind Zt = Xt + ξt = ϕ(Tt(ψ)) + ξt, for t ∊ Z, where T is a deterministic map, ϕ is a given function and ξt is a noise process. The examples considered in this paper generalize the classical harmonic model Zt = Acos(ω0t + ψ) + ξt, for t ∊ Z. Two examples are developed at length. In the first one, the spectral measure is discrete and in the second it is continuous. In the second example, the time series is obtained from a chaotic map. These two examples exhibit the extremal cases of different possibilities for the spectral measure of time series and they are both associated with ergodic deterministic transformations with noise. We present a method for obtaining explicitly the spectral density function (second example) and the autocorrelation coefficients (first example). In the first example the rotation number plays an important role. We also consider large deviation properties of the estimated parameters of the model.

In this paper we consider a Galton-Watson process in which particles move according to a positive recurrent Markov chain on a general state space. We prove a law of large numbers for the empirical position distribution and also discuss the rate of this convergence.