We study the transient and limiting behavior of a queue with a Pólya arrival process. The Pólya process is interesting because it exhibits path-dependent behavior, e.g. it satisfies a non-ergodic law of large numbers: the average number of arrivals over time [0, t] converges almost surely to a nondegenerate limit as $t \rightarrow \infty$. We establish a heavy-traffic diffusion limit for the $\sum_{i=1}^{n} P_i/GI/1$ queue, with arrivals occurring exogenously according to the superposition of n independent and identically distributed Pólya point processes. That limit yields a tractable approximation for the transient queue-length distribution, because the limiting net input process is a Gaussian Markov process with stationary increments. We also provide insight into the long-run performance of queues with path-dependent arrival processes. We show how Little’s law can be stated in this context, and we provide conditions under which there is stability for a queue with a Pólya arrival process.

This paper investigates a financial market where stock returns depend on an unobservable Gaussian mean reverting drift process. Information on the drift is obtained from returns and randomly arriving discrete-time expert opinions. Drift estimates are based on Kalman filter techniques. We study the asymptotic behavior of the filter for high-frequency experts with variances that grow linearly with the arrival intensity. The derived limit theorems state that the information provided by discrete-time expert opinions is asymptotically the same as that from observing a certain diffusion process. These diffusion approximations are extremely helpful for deriving simplified approximate solutions of utility maximization problems.

A pair of bouncing geometric Brownian motions (GBMs) is studied. The bouncing GBMs behave like GBMs except that, when they meet, they bounce off away from each other. The object of interest is the position process, which is defined as the position of the latest meeting point at each time. We study the distributions of the time and position of their meeting points, and show that the suitably scaled logarithmic position process converges weakly to a standard Brownian motion as the bounce size δ→0. We also establish the convergence of the bouncing GBMs to mutually reflected GBMs as δ→0. Finally, applying our model to limit order books, we derive a simple and effective prediction formula for trading prices.

This paper presents a new approach for obtaining heavy-traffic limits for infinite-server queues and open networks of infinite-server queues. The key observation is that infinite-server queues having deterministic service times can easily be analyzed in terms of the arrival counting process. A variant of the same idea applies when the service times take values in a finite set, so this is the key assumption. In addition to new proofs of established results, the paper contains several new results, including limits for the work-in-system process, limits for steady-state distributions, limits for open networks with general customer routes, and rates of convergence. The relatively tractable Gaussian limits are promising approximations for many-server queues and open networks of such queues, possibly with finite waiting rooms.

For N = 1, 2, …, let {(XN (k), YN (k)), k = 0, 1, …} be a time-homogeneous Markov chain in . Suppose that, asymptotically as N → ∞, the ‘infinitesimal' covariances and means of XN([·/ε N]) are aij(x, y) and bi(x, y), and those of YN ([·/δ N]) are 0 and cl(x, y). Assume and limN→∞ε N/δ N = 0. Then, under a global asymptotic stability condition on dy/dt = c(x, y) or a related difference equation (and under some technical conditions), it is shown that (i) XN([·/ε N]) converges weakly to a diffusion process with coefficients aij(x, 0) and bi(x, 0) and (ii) YN([t/ε N]) → 0 in probability for every t > 0. The assumption in Ethier and Nagylaki (1980) that the processes are uniformly bounded is removed here.

The results are used to establish diffusion approximations of multiallelic one-locus stochastic models for mutation, selection, and random genetic drift in a finite, panmictic, diploid population. The emphasis is on rare, severely deleterious alleles. Models with multinomial sampling of genotypes in the monoecious, dioecious autosomal, and X-linked cases are analyzed, and an explicit formula for the stationary distribution of allelic frequencies is obtained.

Approximate results are obtained for the probability distribution of the number of mutant substitutions over a given number of generations. The distribution is a compound Poisson distribution having a variance which is greater than the mean. The substitutions occur in clusters. The most extreme case of clustering is studied in this paper, which assumes that there is no recombination between mutant nucleotides.

For N = 1, 2, ···, let {(XN(k), YN(k)), k = 0, 1, ···} be a homogeneous Markov chain in ℝm x ℝn. Suppose that, asymptotically as N → ∞, the ‘infinitesimal’ covariances and means of XN([·/∊N]) are aij(x, y) and bi(x, y), and those of YN([·/δN]) are 0 and cl(x, y). Assume limN→∞ δN = limN→∞ ∊N/δN = 0 and the zero solution of ý = c(x, y) is globally asymptotically stable. Then, under some technical conditions, it is shown that (i) XN([·/∊N]) converges weakly to a diffusion process with coefficients aij(x, 0) and bi(x, 0), and (ii) YN([t/∊N]) → 0 in probability for every t > 0. (The case limN→∞ δN = δ∞ > 0 = limN→∞ ∊N is also treated.) The proof is based on the discrete-parameter analogue of a generalization of Kurtz's limit theorems for perturbed operator semigroups.

The results are applied to three classes of stochastic models for random genetic drift at a multiallelic locus in a finite diploid population. The three classes involve multinomial sampling, overlapping generations, and general progeny distributions. Within each class, the monoecious, dioecious autosomal, and X-linked cases are analyzed. It is found that results for a monoecious population obtained from a diffusion approximation can be applied at once to the dioecious cases by using the appropriate effective population size and averaging allelic frequencies, selection intensities, and mutation rates, weighting each sex by the number of genes carried by an individual at the locus under consideration.

A limiting distribution for the age of a class of Markov processes is found if the present state of the process is known. We use this distribution to find the age of branching processes. Using the fact that the moments of the age of birth and death processes and of diffusion processes satisfy difference equations and differential equations respectively, we find simple formulas for these moments. For the Wright–Fisher genetic model we find the probability that a given allele is the oldest in the population if all the gene frequencies are known. The proofs of the main results are based on methods from renewal theory.

This paper is mainly concerned with the asymptotic theory of maximum likelihood estimation for continuous-time stochastic processes. The role of martingale limit theory in this theory is developed. Some analogues of classical statistical concepts and quantities are also suggested. Various examples that illustrate parts of the theory are worked through, producing new results in some cases. The role of diffusion approximations in estimation is also explored.

This paper describes an accurate method of approximating the mean of the first-passage time distribution for an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with a single absorbing barrier. The accuracy of the approximation is demonstrated through some numerical comparisons.

This paper studies a controlled queueing system in which the decisionmaker may change servers according to rules which depend only on the queue length. It is proved that for a given control policy a properly normalised sequence of these controlled queue length processes converges weakly to a controlled diffusion process as the queueing systems approach a state of heavy traffic.