We define variants of PEL type of the Shimura varieties that appear in the context of the arithmetic Gan–Gross–Prasad (AGGP) conjecture. We formulate for them a version of the AGGP conjecture. We also construct (global and semi-global) integral models of these Shimura varieties and formulate for them conjectures on arithmetic intersection numbers. We prove some of these conjectures in low dimension.

We prove an explicit formula for the arithmetic intersection number of diagonal cycles on GSpin Rapoport–Zink spaces in the minuscule case. This is a local problem arising from the arithmetic Gan–Gross–Prasad conjecture for orthogonal Shimura varieties. Our formula can be viewed as an orthogonal counterpart of the arithmetic–geometric side of the arithmetic fundamental lemma proved by Rapoport–Terstiege–Zhang in the minuscule case.

The arithmetic fundamental lemma conjecture of the third author connects the derivative of an orbital integral on a symmetric space with an intersection number on a formal moduli space of $p$-divisible groups of Picard type. It arises in the relative trace formula approach to the arithmetic Gan–Gross–Prasad conjecture. We prove this conjecture in the minuscule case.