Evidence-based conservation can be hindered by limited field data, but historical archives have the potential to provide unique insights into conservation-relevant parameters, such as identification of suitable habitat for threatened species. The Manumea or Tooth-billed Pigeon Didunculus strigirostris has declined on Samoa and only a tiny remnant population still persists, and a key first step for conservation is to locate surviving birds. Numerous Manumea records are available from the nineteenth century onwards, and we used historical and modern records to generate a series of species distribution models to predict the distribution of suitable habitat across Samoa to guide new field searches. Manumea distribution is closely associated with forest cover or its proxies. Preferred Manumea food plants are suggested to be low-elevation trees, but elevation provides relatively low percentage contribution in most models, thus not excluding the possibility that Manumea might occur at high elevations. There is also little evidence for elevational change in records over the past century. Models based on visual versus acoustic records exhibit differences in predicted habitat suitability, suggesting that some purported acoustic records might not actually represent Manumea calls. Field searches should target areas representing high habitat suitability across all models, notably the forested central axis of Upolu.

Seabirds are highly threatened, including by fisheries bycatch. Accurate understanding of offshore distribution of seabirds is crucial to address this threat. Tracking technologies revolutionised insights into seabird distributions but tracking data may contain a variety of biases. We tracked two threatened seabirds (Salvin’s Albatross Thalassarche salvini n = 60 and Black Petrel Procellaria parkinsoni n = 46) from their breeding colonies in Aotearoa (New Zealand) to their non-breeding grounds in South America, including Peru, while simultaneously completing seven surveys in Peruvian waters. We then used species distribution models to predict occurrence and distribution using either data source alone, and both data sources combined. Results showed seasonal differences between estimates of occurrence and distribution when using data sources independently. Combining data resulted in more balanced insights into occurrence and distributions, and reduced uncertainty. Most notably, both species were predicted to occur in Peruvian waters during all four annual quarters: the northern Humboldt upwelling system for Salvin’s Albatross and northern continental shelf waters for Black Petrels. Our results highlighted that relying on a single data source may introduce biases into distribution estimates. Our tracking data might have contained ontological and/or colony-related biases (e.g. only breeding adults from one colony were tracked), while our survey data might have contained spatiotemporal biases (e.g. surveys were limited to waters <200 nm from the coast). We recommend combining data sources wherever possible to refine predictions of species distributions, which ultimately will improve fisheries bycatch management through better spatiotemporal understanding of risks.

Accurately demarcating distributions of biological taxa has long been at the core of ecology. Yet our understanding of the factors defining species range limits is incomplete, especially for tropical species in the Global South. Human-driven threats to the survival of many taxa are increasing, particularly habitat loss and climate change. Identifying distributional range limits of at-risk and data-limited species using Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can thus inform spatial conservation planning to mitigate these threats. The Madagascar Peregrine Falcon Falco peregrinus radama is the resident sub-species of the Peregrine Falcon complex distributed across Madagascar, Mayotte, and the Comoros Islands. There are currently significant knowledge gaps regarding its distribution, habitat preferences, and population size. Here, we use penalized logistic regression and environmental ordination to identify Madagascar Peregrine Falcon habitat in both geographic and environmental space and propose a population size estimate based on inferred habitat. From the penalized logistic regression model, the core habitat area of the Madagascar Peregrine Falcon extends across the central and northern upland plateau of Madagascar with patchier habitat across coastal and low-elevation areas. Range-wide habitat use in both geographic and environmental space indicated positive associations with high elevation and aridity, coupled with high vegetation heterogeneity and >95% herbaceous landcover, but general avoidance of areas >30% cultivated land and >10% mosaic forest. Based on inferred high-class habitat from the penalized logistic regression model, we estimate this habitat area could potentially support a population size ranging between 150 and 300 pairs. Following IUCN Red List guidelines, this subspecies would be classed as ‘Vulnerable’ due to its small population size. Despite its potentially large range, the Madagascar Peregrine Falcon has specialised habitat requirements and would benefit from targeted conservation measures based on spatial models to maintain viable populations.

Using species distribution models (SDMs), we predicted the distribution of 170 plant species under different climatic scenarios (current and future climatic conditions) and used this information to create invasion risk maps to identify potential invasion hot spots in California. The risk of invasion by individual species was also assessed using species’ predicted area in combination with some biological traits associated with invasiveness (growth form, reproduction mechanisms, and age of maturity). A higher number of species would find suitable climatic conditions along the coast; the Central Western (CW) and South Western (SW) were ecoregions where a higher number of species were predicted. Overall, hot spots of species distribution were similar under current and future climatic conditions; however, individual species’ predicted area (increase or decrease) was variable depending on the climate change scenario and the greenhouse gas emission. Out of the 170 species assessed, 22% ranked as high-risk species, with herbs, grasses, and vines accounting for 78% within this risk class, and a high proportion (67%) of Asteraceae species ranked as high risk. This study suggests that current climatic conditions of the central and south coastal regions of California would be considered as hot spots of new invasions, and for some species this risk might increase with hotter and drier future climatic conditions.

Designating protected areas remains a core strategy in biodiversity conservation. Despite high endemism, montane forests across the island of Java are under-represented in Indonesia's protected area network. Here, we document the montane biodiversity of Gunung Slamet, an isolated volcano in Central Java, and provide evidence to support its increased protection. During September–December 2018, we surveyed multiple sites for birds, primates, terrestrial mammals, reptiles, amphibians and vegetation. Survey methods included transects, camera traps and targeted searches at six sites, at altitudes of 970–2,512 m. We used species distribution models for birds and mammals of conservation concern to identify priority areas for protection. We recorded 99 bird species (13 globally threatened), 15 mammals (five globally threatened) and 17 reptiles and amphibians (two endemic). Our species distribution models showed considerable cross-taxon congruence between important areas on Slamet's upper slopes, generally above 1,800 m. Particularly important were records of the endemic subspecies of the Endangered Javan laughingthrush Garrulax rufifrons slamatensis, not recorded in the wild since 1925, the Endangered Javan gibbon Hylobates moloch and Javan surili Presbytis comata, and the Vulnerable Javan lutung Trachypithecus auratus and Javan leopard Panthera pardus melas. Recent forest loss has been modest, at least 280 km2 of continuous forest remain above 800 m, and our surveys show that forest habitats are in good condition. However, the mountain is widely used by trappers and hunters. Given its importance for biodiversity conservation, we discuss different options for improving the protection status of Gunung Slamet, including designation as a National Park or Essential Ecosystem.

Climate change presents a particularly complex challenge in the context of flyway scale conservation of migratory bird species as it requires coordinated action by multiple countries along these species’ migratory routes. Coordinating conservation responses requires understanding the vulnerability of species and their habitats to climate change at the flyway scale throughout each species’ annual cycle. To contribute to such understanding, we used species distribution models to assess the exposure to climate change of waterbird species that are the focus of the Agreement on the Conservation of African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds (AEWA). We found that the species with the smallest proportion of their current range projected to be climatically suitable by 2050 (those whose distributions respond to changes in water availability but that do not perform synchronised migration) are dispersive species in the Afrotropical biogeographic realm, and migratory species in their breeding season, particularly Arctic breeding waders. These species also have the most limited availability of newly suitable areas. Projections for most other Palearctic migratory waterbird species suggest that losses of suitable areas in their current passage and wintering ranges may be largely offset by new areas becoming climatically suitable. The majority of migratory Palearctic waterbirds in the breeding season and Afrotropical waterbirds are widely dispersed with only a small proportion of their populations currently supported by ‘Critical Sites’ (i.e. sites that are either important for Globally Threatened Species or support 1% of the bioregional population of any waterbird species). This makes it unlikely that climate change adaptation measures focusing only on key sites will be sufficient to counter the predicted range losses. Therefore, climate change adaptation responses should also be implemented at the landscape scale for Afrotropical waterbirds and for breeding populations of Palearctic migrant waterbirds.

Brazil has a high diversity of primates, but increasing anthropogenic pressures and climate change could influence forest cover in the country and cause future changes in the distribution of primate populations. Here we aim to assess the long-term suitability of habitats for the conservation of three threatened Brazilian primates (Alouatta belzebul, Sapajus flavius and Sapajus libidinosus) through (1) estimating their current and future distributions using species distribution models, (2) evaluating how much of the areas projected to be suitable is represented within protected areas and priority areas for biodiversity conservation, and (3) assessing the extent of remaining forest cover in areas predicted to be suitable for these species. We found that 88% of the suitable areas are outside protected areas and only 24% are located in areas with forest cover. Although not within protected areas, 27% of the climatically suitable areas are considered priority areas for conservation. Future projections, considering a severe climate change scenario, indicate that A. belzebul, S. flavius and S. libidinosus may lose up to 94, 98 and 54% of their suitable range, respectively. The establishment of primate populations and their long-term survival in these areas are at risk. Mitigation actions such as the implementation of new protected areas, forest restoration and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions will be essential for the conservation of Brazilian primates.

Invasive species are widely recognized as a major threat to global diversity and an important factor associated with global change. Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely applied to determine the range that invasive species could potentially occupy, but most examples focus on predictive variables at a single spatial scale. In this study, we simultaneously considered a broad range of variables related to climate, topography, land cover, land use, and propagule pressure to predict what areas in the southeastern United States are more susceptible to invasion by 45 invasive terrestrial plant species. Using expert-verified occurrence points from EDDMapS, we modeled invasion susceptibility at 30-m resolution for each species using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach. We then analyzed how environmental predictors affected susceptibility to invasion at different spatial scales. Climatic and land-use variables, especially minimum temperature of coldest month and distance to developed areas, were good predictors of landscape susceptibility to invasion. For most of the species tested, human-disturbed systems such as developed areas and barren lands were more prone to be invaded than areas that experienced minimal human interference. As expected, we found that landscape heterogeneity and the presence of corridors for propagule dispersal significantly increased landscape susceptibility to invasion for most species. However, we also found a number of species for which the susceptibility to invasion increased in landscapes with large core areas and/or less-aggregated patches. These exceptions suggest that even though we found the expected general patterns for susceptibility to invasion among most species, the influence of landscape composition and configuration on invasion risk is species specific.

The green peafowl Pavo muticus is a highly threatened galliform species that was historically distributed widely across South-east Asia. Evidence shows a recent population decline and range contraction for this species, linked with habitat degradation and over-exploitation. This study aimed to determine the current known distribution across mainland South-east Asia and investigate potential habitat that could host remaining viable populations and contribute to the long-term survival of the species. We used locations from historical and recent records and habitat variables from a geographical information system database to model the probability of occurrence and classify key localities according to their relative importance for the species. Our results showed that the green peafowl probably occurs in less than 16% of its historical range across mainland South-east Asia and that remaining locations are fragmented. Four confirmed and two potential stronghold populations were identified for the species, based on the localities with high capacity to contribute to its long-term survival in large contiguous patches. These were in central Myanmar, western and northern Thailand, eastern Cambodia/south-central Viet Nam and northern Cambodia/southern Lao. Threats vary amongst countries, with continued habitat loss and degradation in many areas and hunting particularly acute in Viet Nam, Cambodia and Lao. Most of the remaining populations are in protected areas but the protection level varies widely. We propose conservation actions for each stronghold population, in accordance with the nature of the threats and protection level in each area, to prevent the local extinction of this species.

We used all 167 typhoon warnings issued by the Taiwanese Central Weather Bureau from 1958–2006 to assess the long-term effect of cyclone disturbance on vascular epiphytes. Tracks and eyes of past typhoons were plotted as circles with radii of Beaufort scale 7 and 10, and the frequency of each cohort in 1-km2 grid cells was calculated. The presence of vascular epiphytes in the same grid cells was predicted using species distribution models (SDMs). First, we used herbarium specimens and other sources to compile a comprehensive georeferenced vascular epiphyte database that contained 39084 records in 331 species. Next, we assigned each epiphyte record to a cell in the same 1-km2 grid as above. Finally, we used SDMs (MaXent), based on 30 environmental variables except typhoon frequency, to predict the potential presence of each species in the grid cells. For our analysis we only considered cells east of the central mountain ridge where typhoons hit with full force. After elimination of rare species and species that could not be validated in the SDMs, we were left with 156 epiphyte species in 10725 1-km2 cells. The number of projected species in the cells was 36.5 on average, varying between two and 82 species. Correlation analyses showed that, over time, typhoons led to a decrease in epiphyte richness at Beaufort scale 7 and 10 (Pearson's r = −0.07 and −0.08 respectively). Ferns, orchids, hemiepiphytes and dicotyledons generally showed the same pattern, except hemiepiphytes that showed a positive correlation at B7 (Pearson's r = 0.15). A partial canonical correspondence ordination analysis showed that, independent of temperature- and rainfall-related variables, Beaufort scale 7 and 10 typhoons also had significant influence on the species composition of the vascular epiphyte communities in the landscape. We recommend in situ monitoring of epiphytes over a long period to corroborate the suggestion from this indirect study that typhoons have a long-term effect on the distribution of epiphytes in Taiwan.

Plant species that receive significant human introduction effort and assistance generally are the most problematic invaders. Despite this, invasive ornamental species in urban settings have received relatively little attention if not invading natural areas. Here we consider Centranthus ruber in an urban setting in South Africa as a case study and explore when emerging invaders are able to cross the urban–wildland interface and what hinders early eradication in urban environments. Centranthus ruber was introduced into Cape Town, South Africa, more than a century ago as a garden ornamental, but until recently was not considered invasive. We determine the current and potential future distribution in South Africa, evaluate current management activities, and provide recommendations for control and legislation. By August 2013, we had found 64 populations, of which 31 were casual, 27 naturalized, and 6 invasive. This increased to more than 530 identified populations by the end of 2015, due to both spread and increased awareness. Centranthus ruber can invade near-pristine areas, with one population found in natural vegetation in the Table Mountain National Park. However, with only one slowly spreading population, the threat might be limited. We found no difference in plant mortality between chemical and mechanical clearing, but with mechanical clearing stimulating the soil seedbank, we recommend chemical methods. Using a species distribution model, we found large parts of South Africa, including the southwestern Cape where we conducted our surveys, to be climatically suitable for this species. Consequently, the category 1b regional listing in NEM:BA in the Western Cape is justified, but a listing in other parts of the country also might be appropriate. Based on our findings, we suggest that the extirpation of C. ruber in South Africa is possible, but without buy-in from residents in urban environments, reinvasion will render this impossible. This study stresses the importance of managing and legislating emerging invaders at the urban–wildland interface and the monitoring of common ornamental species with invasive traits.

Protected areas have been established historically in residual places where the potential for extractive uses is low, implying that places at risk are usually under-protected. Argentina is no exception, with few protected areas established in productive regions that are prone to conversion. Here, using reptiles as a study group and considering the most important human threats in north-western Argentina, we estimated priority conservation areas where we expect species to persist in the face of climate change and land conversion. Protected areas cover no more than 9% of the study region, but represent less than 15% of reptile distributions. There are great opportunities for improving the conservation status in the region by protecting only 8% more of north-western Argentina, with the level of species protection inside the protected area network increasing almost four-fold, reaching 43% of species distributions on average and 59% of the distributions of threatened reptiles. Fortunately, the highest diversity of reptiles in the region does not match the places targeted for agriculture expansion. Our findings suggest that future prioritization schemes should embrace other groups that are especially diverse in the Chaco ecoregion, which overlaps with our study area.

Prediction of invasive species distributions from survey data is widely recognized as a significant component of forest management and conservation planning. Leucaena leucocephala is the most aggressive invasive shrub and tree in the Hengchun peninsula in southern Taiwan. We analyzed geo-referenced data to identify potential variables of invasion and to predict likelihood of further invasion using boosted regression trees. Our results, which classified 92% of the cells correctly with regard to species presence and absence, indicated probability of invasion is correlated with climatic conditions (temperature and precipitation), landscape features (altitude; slope ratio and aspect; percentages of natural or secondary forest, agriculture land, developed area, and water bodies; and distances to the nearest forest edge and river), and anthropogenic factors (length of forest edge, and distances to the nearest road and agriculture land). The most influential variables are average annual temperature, altitude, precipitation, and slope. Continued range expansion by L. leucocephala is most likely to proceed (1) from the eastern and western portions toward the central portion of Hengchun township and (2) throughout the southern and toward the eastern portions of Manjhou township. Our model should provide useful information to aid forest managers in the development of long term monitoring and control strategies for L. leucocephala, in the early detection and eradication of newly established invasions, and also a framework for the integration and analysis of new presence and absence field data as they become available.

Species distribution models (SDMs) for the last interglacial (LIG), the global last glacial maximum (LGM) and the Holocene climatic optimum (HCO) were generated for three extinct South American Pleistocene mylodontid giant sloths, Glossotherium robustum, Lestodon armatus and Mylodon darwinii. They are recorded co-occurring in some localities including Arroyo del Vizcaíno site (AdV) in Uruguay. Co-occurrence records were studied based on the overlap of their generated areas of potential distributions, and compared with the available biome reconstructions of South America during the LGM to analyze their distribution patterns, ecological requirements and possible interactions between them. Our results suggest that these sloths could have co-existed mainly in the Chaco-Paraná Basin and the plains in the Río de la Plata area. Areas of high suitability were observed for submerged parts of the continental shelf that were exposed during the LGM showing an overall increase in potential habitat compared to the LIG and HCO. This suggests that there was a drastic reduction in total available areas of preferred habitat at the end of the Pleistocene. The co-occurrence of these sloths at the AdV site suggests the presence of vegetation indicative of mainly open, cold to temperate habitats but with mixed patches typical of humid climates.

Ants are among the worst invasive species, and can have tremendous negative impacts on native biodiversity, agriculture, estates, property and human health. Invasive ants are extremely difficult to control, and thus early detection is essential to prevent ant invasions, in particular through surveillance efforts at ports of entry. This paper assesses the potential distribution of 14 of the worst invasive ant species in France, under current and future climatic conditions. Consensus species distribution models, using five different modelling techniques, three global climate models and two CO2 emission scenarios, indicated that France presented suitable areas for 10/14 species, including five listed on the Invasive Species Specialist Group's selection of the world's 100 worst invasive species. Among these 10 species, eight were predicted to increase their potential range with climate change. Areas with the highest concentration of potential invaders were mainly located along the coastline, especially in the south-west of France, but all departments appeared to be climatically suitable for at least two invasive species. A ranking of climatic suitability per species for 17 major airports and 14 maritime ports indicated that the ports of entry with the highest suitability were located in Biarritz, Toulon and Nice, and the species with the greatest potential distribution in France were Lasius neglectus and Linepithema humile, followed by Solenopsis richteri, Pheidole megacephala and Wasmannia auropunctata.

The ngwayir (western ringtail possum Pseudocheirus occidentalis) is an arboreal species endemic to south-western Australia. The range and population of this species have been significantly reduced through multiple anthropogenic impacts. Classified as vulnerable, the ngwayir is highly susceptible to extremes of temperature and reduced water intake. Ngwayir distribution was determined using three different species distribution models using ngwayir presence records related to a set of 19 bioclimatic variables derived from historical climate data, overlaid with 2050 climate change scenarios. MaxEnt was used to identify core habitat and demonstrate how this habitat may be impacted. A supplementary modelling exercise was also conducted to ascertain potential impacts on the tree species that are core habitat for ngwayir. All models predicted a reduction of up to 60% in the range of the ngwayir and its habitat, as a result of global warming towards the south-west of the project area, with a mean potential distribution of 10.3% of the total modelled area of 561 059 km2. All three tree species modelled (jarrah, marri and peppermint) were predicted to experience similar contractions in range throughout most of the predicted ngwayir range, although their distributions differed. Populations of ngwayir persisting outside core habitat may indicate potential conservation opportunities.

Climate change is predicted to be a major threat for biodiversity and, from a conservation prospective, it is important to understand how ecosystems may respond to that change. Predicted climate change effects on the distribution of meadows in the arid and semi-arid Argentinean Patagonia by 2050 were assessed for change trends and areas of desertification vulnerability using species distribution models (SDM) and climate-change models. Four modelling techniques composed an ensemble-forecasting approach. Suitable areas for meadows will decrease by 7.85% by 2050 given predicted changes in climate. However, there were two contrasting trends: severe reduction of suitable areas for meadows in north-west Patagonia and Tierra del Fuego Island, and an expansion of suitable areas for meadows in the south and a small section in the north-west. Meadows in Patagonia will likely be impacted by climate change, probably due to changes in precipitation regimes, and consequently many species that rely on meadows in an arid environment will also be impacted. Given the low level of protection of meadows in Patagonia, such information on meadow distribution and vulnerability to climate change will be important for increasing and improving the network of conservation areas through conservation planning.

Knowledge of the factors determining species distributions is essential for developing conservation strategies. Sandgrouse Pterocles alchata and P. orientalis are threatened in Spain, the stronghold of European populations. Spatial modelling was used to: (1) assess the relative importance of abiotic, anthropogenic and geographical factors in the distribution of both sandgrouse species, (2) determine the most important anthropogenic predictors for each species occurrence, and (3) identify areas where conservation efforts should be prioritized. Abiotic and anthropogenic factors explained most of the variation in sandgrouse distributions. Both species were associated with arid flatlands, arable land cover being the most important anthropogenic variable determining their distribution. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is the main driver of agricultural management in Europe, and may thus have a direct effect on sandgrouse distributions. P. orientalis exhibited broader habitat tolerance than P. alchata; the latter species tolerates warmer climates. Consequently, the network of core and marginally suitable areas identified for each species differs, and connectivity between the populations of these areas seems unlikely. Potential future changes in sandgrouse distribution will probably be directed principally by the synergistic effects of climate change and expected land-use transformations resulting from the new CAP and ongoing population growth, urbanization and infrastructure development.