Public understanding of the water system is vital in confronting contemporary water challenges, as public support is necessary for implementing measures to address shortages and repair infrastructure. In this study, university student participants (N = 457) were asked to draw diagrams illustrating how water reaches the tap in an average home in the U.S. and is then returned to the natural environment. We also conducted an expert elicitation (N = 15) to create a simplified, accurate diagram by which to code each student drawing. Results showed major gaps in understanding, where 29% of the student participants did not draw a water treatment plant, 64% did not draw a wastewater treatment plant, and 1 in 5 participants depicted untreated wastewater returning to the natural environment. For the majority of non-environmental students, the water system stops at the home. These gaps reveal a critical area for public environmental education efforts.

Climate change (CC) is a major threat to biodiversity, increasing species extinction risk. Assessments of its possible impacts on species are crucial for designing conservation strategies. Here, we adjusted a global trait-based approach to the national level and apply it to Uruguay (South America) to evaluate the CC vulnerability of its herpetofauna. A total of 112 species were assessed in a scenario of CC projections for 2050 with regard to three dimensions of vulnerability: sensitivity, low adaptive capacity and exposure. We conducted the assessment through an expert elicitation process based on the Delphi method. We found that most local species (64.6% amphibians; 100% reptiles) were highly sensitive to CC. Among them, seven amphibians (14.6%) and seven reptiles (10.9%) were identified as highly vulnerable to CC. Important gaps in the life-history traits of the species were found that should guide future research. The structured expert consultation process allowed us to gather more and better information than if it had only been based on published sources. Our study identified challenges associated with changing the scale from global to national that might be used for similar assessments in other countries.

Worldwide, conservation initiatives have attempted to curb illegal harvest, use and trade of marine turtles at least since the 1950s. Despite some declines in local trade and consumption, these illegal activities are still often reported as a key threat to marine turtle populations. Reassessing and refining global conservation priorities for marine turtles allows us to formulate evidence-based strategies and effective interventions to address this threat. We surveyed a total of 103 marine turtle conservation researchers and practitioners globally to understand how conservation efforts can be better allocated to curb illegal harvest, use and trade. We explored the characteristics of these illegal activities, conservation priorities, challenges and lessons learnt. According to participants’ perceptions, progress has been achieved, but illegal harvest, use and trade remain pressing threats globally. Current challenges to addressing illegal activities relate to fisheries management, enforcement and legislation. Recommended priority actions include law and penalty enforcement, enhancing environmental literacy, awareness and stakeholder participation, and improving local conservation leadership and onshore/maritime management based on research. Based on participants' perceptions, we identify priorities for marine turtle conservation interventions that aim to curb illegal harvest, use and trade. Given the challenges of obtaining reliable information on sensitive topics such as illegal harvest, use and trade, further work should seek to validate our findings through empirical research. Further work could also seek to comprehend better how expert elicitation in conservation is influenced by individual experience, perspectives and goals.

Mesoamerica is the world's third largest biodiversity hotspot and has c. 4,000 wildlife species protected under CITES. Despite the high biodiversity in the region, there is limited global attention, data and funding for conservation. The continued exploitation of wildlife species for the trade requires a more proactive approach to address emerging trends, and low-cost and effective solutions to prevent species decline. Over a 5-month period in 2017, we used expert-driven horizon scanning, facilitated online, to identify emerging trends of the illegal wildlife trade in Mesoamerica. We found that the main emerging trends included digital and technological advancements, greater regional access to the global community, developments in trafficking techniques and growing demand for certain species. Our findings demonstrate that horizon scanning can be used as a tool for identifying emerging trends of illegal wildlife trade in data-poor contexts. We recommend that horizon scanning is used regularly for systematic monitoring of trends and to prioritize resources for immediate and emerging trends in illegal wildlife trade.

Objectives: Our study addresses the important issue of estimating treatment costs from historical data. It is a problem frequently faced by health technology assessment analysts. We compared four approaches used to estimate current costs when good quality contemporary data are not available using liver transplantation as an example.

Methods: First, the total cost estimates extracted for patients from a cohort study, conducted in the 1990s, were inflated using a published inflation multiplier. Second, resource use estimates from the cohort study were extracted for hepatitis C patients and updated using current unit costs. Third, expert elicitation was carried out to identify changes in clinical practice over time and quantify current resource use. Fourth, routine data on resource use were obtained from National Health Service Blood and Transplant (NHSBT).

Results: The first two methods did not account for changes in clinical practice. Also the first was not specific to hepatitis patients. The use of experts confirmed significant changes in clinical practice. However, the quantification of resource use using experts is challenging as clinical specialists may not have a complete overview of clinical pathway. The NHSBT data are the most accurate reflection of transplantation and posttransplantation phase; however, data were not available for the whole pathway of care. The best estimate of total cost, combining NHSBT data and expert elicitation, is £121,211.

Discussion: Observational data from routine care are potentially the most reliable reflection of current resource use. Efforts should be made to make such data readily available and accessible to researchers. Expert elicitation provided reasonable estimates.

Objectives: External experts can be consulted at different stages of an HTA. When using vague information sources, it is particularly important to plan, analyze, and report the information processing in a standardized and transparent way. Our objective was to search and analyze recommendations regarding where and how to include expert data in HTA.

Methods: We performed a systematic database search and screened the Internet pages of seventy-seven HTA organizations for guidelines, recommendations, and methods papers that address the inclusion of experts in HTA. Relevant documents were downloaded, and information was extracted in a standard form. Results were merged in tables and narrative evidence synthesis.

Results: From twenty-two HTA organizations, we included forty-two documents that consider the use of expert opinion in HTA. Nearly all documents mention experts in the step of preparation of the evidence report. Six documents address their role for priority setting of topics, fifteen for scoping, twelve for the appraisal of evidence and results, another twelve documents mention experts when considering the dissemination of HTA results.

During the assessment step, experts are most often asked to amend the literature search or to provide expertise for special data analyses. Another issue for external experts is to appraise the HTA results and refer them back to a clinical and social context. Little is reported on methods of expert elicitation when their input substitutes study data.

Conclusions: Despite existing recommendations on the use of expert opinion in HTA, common standards for elicitation are scarce in HTA guidelines.

New evidence of commercialization and consumption of wild meat in Amazonian cities has exposed an alarming yet poorly understood threat to Neotropical biodiversity. In response to the limitations of field sampling for large-scale surveys, we sought to develop a method of rapidly assessing wildlife harvest and trade in multiple areas using expert knowledge. Using caiman as a model taxon, we surveyed experts across the Brazilian Amazon. Expert responses to a Likert-style questionnaire suggest that caiman hunting, generally considered a localized rural activity, is in fact common and geographically widespread. Contrary to previous assumptions we found evidence that urban demand is partly driving the harvest, including via interstate trafficking. We highlight the need for further field validation of wild-meat trade and urban consumption patterns in Amazonia. We conclude that expert elicitation is a simple, cost-effective technique that can be a valuable precursor to inform and direct applied conservation research, especially where there are significant knowledge gaps and at large spatial scales.

Estimates of the proportion of illness transmitted by food for different enteric pathogens are essential for foodborne burden-of-disease studies. Owing to insufficient scientific data, a formal synthesis of expert opinion, an expert elicitation, is commonly used to produce such estimates. Eleven experts participated in an elicitation to estimate the proportion of illnesses due to food in Australia for nine pathogens over three rounds: first, based on their own knowledge alone; second, after being provided with systematic reviews of the literature and Australian data; and finally, at a workshop where experts reflected on the evidence. Estimates changed significantly across the three rounds (P = 0·002) as measured by analysis of variance. Following the workshop in round 3, estimates showed smoother distributions with significantly less variation for several pathogens. When estimates were combined to provide combined distributions for each pathogen, the width of these combined distributions reflected experts’ perceptions of the availability of evidence, with narrower intervals for pathogens for which evidence was judged to be strongest. Our findings show that the choice of expert elicitation process can significantly influence final estimates. Our structured process – and the workshop in particular – produced robust estimates and distributions appropriate for inclusion in burden-of-disease studies.

It is essential to understand whether conservation interventions are having the desired effect, particularly in light of increasing pressures on biodiversity and because of requirements by donors that project success be demonstrated. Whilst most evaluations look at effectiveness at a project or organizational level, local efforts need to be connected to an understanding of the effectiveness of conservation directed at a species as a whole, particularly as most metrics of conservation success are at the level of species. We present a framework for measuring the effectiveness of conservation attention at a species level over time, based on scoring eight factors essential for species conservation (engaging stakeholders, management programme, education and awareness, funding and resource mobilization, addressing threats, communication, capacity building and status knowledge), across input, output and outcome stages, in relation to the proportion of the species’ range where each factor attains its highest score. The framework was tested using expert elicitation for 35 mammal and amphibian species on the Zoological Society of London's list of Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered species. Broad patterns in the index produced by the framework could suggest potential mechanisms underlying change in species status. Assigning an uncertainty score to information demonstrates not only where gaps in knowledge exist, but discrepancies in knowledge between experts. This framework could be a useful tool to link local and global scales of impact on species conservation, and could provide a simple and visually appealing way of tracking conservation over time.

Few hard data are available on emergent diseases. However, the need to mitigate and manage emergent diseases has prompted the use of various expert consultation and opinion elicitation methods. We adapted best-worst scaling (BWS) to elicit experts' assessment of the relative practicality and effectiveness of measures to reduce human exposure to E. coli O157. Cattle vaccination was considered the most effective and hand-washing was considered the most practical measure. BWS proved a powerful tool for expert elicitation as it breaks down a cognitively burdensome process into simple, repeated, tasks. In addition, statistical analysis of the resulting data provides a scaled set of scores for the measures, rather than just a ranking. The use of two criteria (practicality and effectiveness) within the BWS process allows the identification of subsets of measures judged as potentially performing well on both criteria, and conversely those judged to be neither effective nor practical.