Estimates of the proportion of illness transmitted by food for different enteric pathogens are essential for foodborne burden-of-disease studies. Owing to insufficient scientific data, a formal synthesis of expert opinion, an expert elicitation, is commonly used to produce such estimates. Eleven experts participated in an elicitation to estimate the proportion of illnesses due to food in Australia for nine pathogens over three rounds: first, based on their own knowledge alone; second, after being provided with systematic reviews of the literature and Australian data; and finally, at a workshop where experts reflected on the evidence. Estimates changed significantly across the three rounds (P = 0·002) as measured by analysis of variance. Following the workshop in round 3, estimates showed smoother distributions with significantly less variation for several pathogens. When estimates were combined to provide combined distributions for each pathogen, the width of these combined distributions reflected experts’ perceptions of the availability of evidence, with narrower intervals for pathogens for which evidence was judged to be strongest. Our findings show that the choice of expert elicitation process can significantly influence final estimates. Our structured process – and the workshop in particular – produced robust estimates and distributions appropriate for inclusion in burden-of-disease studies.

From 2009 to 2013 the diversity of noroviruses (NoVs) in children (⩽5 years) hospitalized with gastroenteritis in South Africa was investigated. NoVs were genotyped based on nucleotide sequence analyses of partial RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) and capsid genes. Seventeen RdRp genotypes (GI.P2, GI.P3, GI.P6, GI.P7, GI.P not assigned (NA), GI.Pb, GI.Pf, GII.P2, GII.P4, GII.P7, GII.P13, GII.P16, GII.P21, GII.Pc, GII.Pe, GII.Pg, GII.PNA) and 20 capsid genotypes (GI.1, GI.2, GI.3, GI.5, GI.6, GI.7, GI.NA, GII.1, GII.2, GII.3, GII.4, GII.6, GII.7, GII.10, GII.12, GII.13, GII.14, GII.16, GII.17, GII.21) were identified. The combined RdRp/capsid genotype was determined for 275 GII strains. Fifteen confirmed recombinant NoV strains circulated during the study period. NoV GII.P4/GII.4 (47%) and GII.Pe/GII.4 (18%) predominated, followed by GII.PNA/GII.3 (10%) and GII.P21/GII.3 (7%). Other prevalent strains included GII.Pg/GII.12 (6%) and GII.Pg/GII.1 (3%). Two novel recombinants, GII.Pg/GII.2 and GII.Pg/GII.10 were identified. In 2013 the replacement of GII.4 New Orleans 2009 and GII.P21/GII.3, which predominated during the early part of the study, with GII.4 Sydney 2012 and GII.PNA/GII.3 was observed. This study presents the most comprehensive recent data on NoV diversity in Africa.

Verotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC) are significant for their low infectious dose, their potential clinical severity and the frequency with which they generate outbreaks. To describe the relative importance of different outbreak transmission routes for VTEC infection in Ireland, we reviewed outbreak notification data for the period 2004–2012, describing the burden and characteristics of foodborne, waterborne, animal contact and person-to-person outbreaks. Outbreaks where person-to-person spread was reported as the sole transmission route accounted for more than half of all outbreaks and outbreaks cases, most notably in childcare facilities. The next most significant transmission route was waterborne spread from untreated or poorly treated private water supplies. The focus for reducing incidence of VTEC should be on reducing waterborne and person-to-person transmission, by publicizing Health Service Executive materials developed for consumers on private well management, and for childcare facility managers and public health professionals on prevention of person-to-person spread.

Cholera is an important public health problem in Bangladesh. Interventions to prevent cholera depend on their cost-effectiveness which in turn depends on cholera incidence. Hospital-based diarrhoeal disease surveillance has been ongoing in six Bangladeshi hospitals where a systematic proportion of patients admitted with diarrhoea were enrolled and tested for Vibrio cholerae. However, incidence calculation using only hospital data underestimates the real disease burden because many ill persons seek treatment elsewhere. We conducted a healthcare utilization survey in the catchment areas of surveillance hospitals to estimate the proportion of severe diarrhoeal cases that were admitted to surveillance hospitals and estimated the population-based incidence of severe diarrhoea due to V. cholerae by combining both hospital surveillance and catchment area survey data. The estimated incidence of severe diarrhoea due to cholera ranged from 0·3 to 4·9/1000 population in the catchment area of surveillance hospitals. In children aged <5 years, incidence ranged from 1·0 to 11·0/1000 children. Diarrhoeal deaths were most common in the Chhatak Hospital's catchment area (18·5/100 000 population). This study provides a credible estimate of the incidence of severe diarrhoea due to cholera in Bangladesh, which can be used to assess the cost-effectiveness of cholera prevention activities.

Cholera is one of a number of infectious diseases that appears to be influenced by climate, geography and other natural environments. This study analysed the environmental factors of the spatial distribution of cholera in China. It shows that temperature, precipitation, elevation, and distance to the coastline have significant impact on the distribution of cholera. It also reveals the oceanic environmental factors associated with cholera in Zhejiang, which is a coastal province of China, using both remote sensing (RS) and geographical information systems (GIS). The analysis has validated the correlation between indirect satellite measurements of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and ocean chlorophyll concentration (OCC) and the local number of cholera cases based on 8-year monthly data from 2001 to 2008. The results show the number of cholera cases has been strongly affected by the variables of SST, SSH and OCC. Utilizing this information, a cholera prediction model has been established based on the oceanic and climatic environmental factors. The model indicates that RS and GIS have great potential for designing an early warning system for cholera.

Shiga-toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections usually cause haemolytic uraemic syndrome (HUS) equally in male and female children. This study investigated the localization of globotriaosylceramide (Gb3) in human brain and kidney tissues removed from forensic autopsy cases in Japan. A fatal case was used as a positive control in an outbreak of diarrhoeal disease caused by STEC O157:H7 in a kindergarten in Urawa in 1990. Positive immunodetection of Gb3 was significantly more frequent in female than in male distal and collecting renal tubules. To correlate this finding with a clinical outcome, a retrospective analysis of the predictors of renal failure in the 162 patients of two outbreaks in Japan was performed: one in Tochigi in 2002 and the other in Kagawa Prefecture in 2005. This study concludes renal failure, including HUS, was significantly associated with female sex, and the odds ratio was 4·06 compared to male patients in the two outbreaks. From 2006 to 2009 in Japan, the risk factor of HUS associated with STEC infection was analysed. The number of males and females and the proportion of females who developed HUS were calculated by age and year from 2006 to 2009. In 2006, 2007 and 2009 in adults aged >20 years, adult women were significantly more at risk of developing HUS in Japan.

We set out to investigate whether Salmonella enterica could be recovered from various tissues of viable neonatal calves immediately following parturition. Eleven samples were aseptically collected from each of 20 calves and consisted of both left and right subiliac and prescapular lymph nodes (LN), mesenteric LN, spleen and liver, as well as intestinal tissue (including luminal contents) from the small intestine, caecum, spiral colon and rectum. In addition, a faecal sample was collected from 19 of the dams. Salmonella was recovered from at least one sample from 10 of the 20 neonates. Across all calves, Salmonella was recovered from 12·7% of all samples and from LN in particular, Salmonella was recovered from 10·0%, 5·0%, and 5·0% of subiliac, prescapular, and mesenteric LN, respectively. Within calves, Salmonella was recovered from 0% to 73% of samples and across tissues, estimates of Salmonella prevalence were greatest in the caecum (30%) but was never recovered from the right pre-scapular LN. These data provide evidence of vertical transmission from a dam to her fetus such that viable calves are born already infected and thereby not requiring faecal–oral exposure for transmission. This new knowledge ought to challenge – or at least add to – existing paradigms of Salmonella transmission dynamics within cattle herds.

In November 2013, national public health agencies in England and Scotland identified an increase in laboratory-confirmed Salmonella Mikawasima. The role of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) as a risk factor for salmonellosis is unclear; we therefore captured information on PPI usage as part of our outbreak investigation. We conducted a case-control study, comparing each case with two controls. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using multivariable logistic regression. Thirty-nine of 61 eligible cases were included in the study. The median age of cases was 45 years; 56% were female. Of these, 33% were admitted to hospital and 31% reported taking PPIs. We identified an association between PPIs and non-typhoidal salmonellosis (aOR 8·8, 95% CI 2·0–38·3). There is increasing evidence supporting the existence of an association between salmonellosis and PPIs; however, biological studies are needed to understand the effect of PPIs in the pathogenesis of Salmonella. We recommend future outbreak studies investigate PPI usage to strengthen evidence on the relevance of PPIs in Salmonella infection. These findings should be used to support the development of guidelines for patients and prescribers on the risk of gastrointestinal infection and PPI usage.

In a 1-year survey at a university hospital we found that 20·6% (81/392) of patients with antibiotic associated diarrohea where positive for C. difficile. The most common PCR ribotypes were 012 (14·8%), 027 (12·3%), 046 (12·3%) and 014/020 (9·9). The incidence rate was 2·6 cases of C. difficile infection for every 1000 outpatients.

The purpose of this study is to determine how demographic and exposure factors related to giardiasis vary between travel and endemic cases. Exposure and demographic data were gathered by public health inspectors from giardiasis cases reported from the Region of Waterloo from 2006 to 2012. Logistic regression models were fit to assess differences in exposure to risk factors for giardiasis between international travel-related cases and Canadian acquired cases while controlling for age and sex. Multinomial regression models were also fit to assess the differences in risk profiles between international and domestic travel-related cases and endemic cases. Travel-related cases (both international and domestic) were more likely to go camping or kayaking, and consume untreated water compared to endemic cases. Domestic travel-related cases were more likely to visit a petting zoo or farm compared to endemic cases, and were more likely to swim in freshwater compared to endemic cases and international travel-related cases. International travellers were more likely to swim in an ocean compared to both domestic travel-related and endemic cases. These findings demonstrate that travel-related and endemic cases have different risk exposure profiles which should be considered for appropriately targeting health promotion campaigns.

A case-control study was conducted to investigate an outbreak of 46 cases of cryptosporidiosis in visitors to a petting farm in England. Details of exposures on the farm were collected for 38 cases and 39 controls, recruited through snowball sampling. Multivariable logistic regression identified that cases were 5·5 times more likely than controls to have eaten without washing their hands [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·51–19·9, P = 0·01] and 10 times less likely to report being informed of risk of infection on arrival (odds ratio 0·10, 95% CI 0·01–0·71, P = 0·02). An uncommon Cryptosporidium parvum gp60 subtype (IIaA19G1R1) was identified in a lamb faecal sample and all subtyped cases (n = 22). We conclude that lack of verbal advice and non-compliance with hand washing are significantly associated with a risk of cryptosporidiosis on open farms. These findings highlight the public health importance of effectively communicating risk to petting farm visitors in order to prevent future outbreaks of zoonotic infections.

Chagas disease is an important emerging disease in Texas that results in cardiomyopathy in about 30% of those infected with the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi. Between the years 2008 and 2012, about 1/6500 blood donors were T. cruzi antibody-confirmed positive. We found older persons and minority populations, particularly Hispanic, at highest risk for screening positive for T. cruzi antibodies during routine blood donation. Zip code analysis determined that T. cruzi is associated with poverty. Chagas disease has a significant disease burden and is a cause of substantial economic losses in Texas.

This study aims to describe changes in incidence and risk factors for community-associated methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) infections upon admission to two New York City hospitals from 2006 to 2012. We examined the first hospitalization for adult patients using electronic health record and administrative data and determined the annual incidence/1000 admissions of total S. aureus, total MRSA, and CA-MRSA (within 48 h of admission) in clinical specimens over the study period. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with CA-MRSA in 2006 and 2012. In 137 350 admissions, the incidence of S. aureus, MRSA, and CA-MRSA/1000 admissions were 15·6, 7·0, and 3·5, respectively. The total S. aureus and MRSA isolations decreased significantly over the study period (27% and 25%, respectively) while CA-MRSA incidence was unchanged. CA-MRSA increased as a proportion of all MRSA between 2006 (46%) and 2012 (62%), and was most frequently isolated from respiratory (1·5/1000) and blood (0·7/1000) cultures. Logistic regression analysis of factors associated with isolation of CA-MRSA showed that age ⩾65 years [odds ratio (OR) 2·3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·2–4·5], male gender (OR 1·8, 95% CI 1·2–2·8) and history of renal failure (OR 2·6, 95% CI 1·6–4·2) were significant predictors of infection in 2006. No predictors were identified in 2012.

Although the incidence of invasive group A streptococcal disease in northern Australia is very high, little is known of the regional epidemiology and molecular characteristics. We conducted a case series of Northern Territory residents reported between 2011 and 2013 with Streptococcus pyogenes isolates from a normally sterile site. Of the 128 reported episodes, the incidence was disproportionately high in the Indigenous population at 69·7/100 000 compared to 8·8/100 000 in the non-Indigenous population. Novel to the Northern Territory is the extremely high incidence in haemodialysis patients of 2205·9/100 000 population; and for whom targeted infection control measures could prevent transmission. The incidences in the tropical north and semi-arid Central Australian regions were similar. Case fatality was 8% (10/128) and streptococcal toxic shock syndrome occurred in 14 (11%) episodes. Molecular typing of 82 isolates identified 28 emm types, of which 63 (77%) were represented by four emm clusters. Typing confirmed transmission between infant twins. While the diverse range of emm types presents a challenge for effective coverage by vaccine formulations, the limited number of emm clusters raises optimism should cluster-specific cross-protection prove efficacious. Further studies are required to determine effectiveness of chemoprophylaxis for contacts and to inform public health response.

Coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6), coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) and enterovirus 71 (EV-A71) were the major enteroviruses causing nationwide hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics in Singapore in the last decade. We estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) of these enteroviruses to obtain a better understanding of their transmission dynamics. We merged records of cases from HFMD outbreaks reported between 2007 and 2012 with laboratory results from virological surveillance. R0 was estimated based on the cumulative number of reported cases in the initial growth phase of each outbreak associated with the particular enterovirus type. A total of 33 HFMD outbreaks were selected based on the inclusion criteria specified for our study, of which five were associated with CV-A6, 13 with CV-A16, and 15 with EV-A71. The median R0 was estimated to be 5·04 [interquartile range (IQR) 3·57–5·16] for CV-A6, 2·42 (IQR 1·85–3·36) for CV-A16, and 3·50 (IQR 2·36–4·53) for EV-A71. R0 was not significantly associated with number of infected children (P = 0·86), number of exposed children (P = 0·94), and duration of the outbreak (P = 0·05). These enterovirus-specific R0 estimates will be helpful in providing insights into the potential growth of future HFMD epidemics and outbreaks for timely implementation of disease control measures, together with disease dynamics such as severity of the cases.

Young age, adverse environmental conditions and infectious agents are established risk factors of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI), whereas pneumococcal conjugate vaccines may be protective. To explore their relative role as predictors of hospitalizations under the continental climate prevailing in the province of Quebec, Canada, an ecological study was performed. Records with a main diagnosis of LRTI in children born during 2007–2010 and observed up to their second-year anniversary were extracted from the provincial hospital administrative database. Respiratory virus surveillance data and statistics on ambient air temperature were obtained. Vaccine use in different birth cohorts was derived from the Quebec City Immunization Registry. Additive and multiplicative Poisson regression models were applied to estimate attributable fractions. Age, month of birth, ambient temperature, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human metapneumovirus (hMPV) and influenza-positive test proportions were significant predictors of LRTI hospitalizations. No substantial differences were observed in cohorts exposed to the 7-valent or 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. In the additive model, the fraction of hospitalizations explained by temperature variation was 37%, whereas RSV circulation explained 28%, hMPV 4% and influenza 1%. Complex interplay between biological, environmental and social mechanisms may explain the important role of ambient air temperature in predicting LRTI hospitalization risk in young children.

For influenza surveillance and diagnosis typical clinical symptoms are traditionally used to discriminate influenza virus infections from infections by other pathogens. During the 2013 influenza season we performed a multiplex assay for 16 different viruses in 665 swabs from patients with acute respiratory infections (ARIs) to display the variety of different pathogens causing ARI and to test the diagnostic value of both the commonly used case definitions [ARI, and influenza like illness (ILI)] as well as the clinical judgement of physicians, respectively, to achieve a laboratory-confirmed influenza diagnosis. Fourteen different viruses were identified as causing ARI/ILI. Influenza diagnosis based on clinical signs overestimated the number of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases and misclassified cases. Furthermore, ILI case definition and physicians agreed in only 287/651 (44%) cases with laboratory confirmation. Influenza case management has to be supported by laboratory confirmation to allow evidence-based decisions. Epidemiological syndromic surveillance data should be supported by laboratory confirmation for reasonable interpretation.

Seasonal respiratory infections place an increased burden on health services annually. We used a sentinel emergency department syndromic surveillance system to understand the factors driving respiratory attendances at emergency departments (EDs) in England. Trends in different respiratory indicators were observed to peak at different points during winter, with further variation observed in the distribution of attendances by age. Multiple linear regression analysis revealed acute respiratory infection and bronchitis/bronchiolitis ED attendances in patients aged 1–4 years were particularly sensitive indicators for increasing respiratory syncytial virus activity. Using near real-time surveillance of respiratory ED attendances may provide early warning of increased winter pressures in EDs, particularly driven by seasonal pathogens. This surveillance may provide additional intelligence about different categories of attendance, highlighting pressures in particular age groups, thereby aiding planning and preparation to respond to acute changes in EDs, and thus the health service in general.

To identify hospital-level factors associated with post-cardiac surgical pneumonia for assessing their impact on standardized infection rates (SIRs), we studied 43 691 patients in a cardiac surgery registry (2001–2011) in 16 hospitals. In a logistic regression model for pneumonia following cardiac surgery, associations with hospital characteristics were quantified with adjustment for patient characteristics while allowing for clustering of patients by hospital. Pneumonia rates varied from 0·7% to 12·4% across hospitals. Seventy percent of variability in the pneumonia rate was attributable to differences in hospitals in their long-term rates with the remainder attributable to within-hospital differences in rates over time. After adjusting for patient characteristics, the pneumonia rate was found to be higher in hospitals with more registered nurses (RNs)/100 intensive-care unit (ICU) admissions [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1·2, P = 0·006] and more RNs/available ICU beds (aOR 1·4, P < 0·001). Other hospital characteristics had no significant association with pneumonia. SIRs calculated on the basis of patient characteristics alone differed substantially from the same rates calculated on the basis of patient characteristics and the hospital characteristic of RNs/100 ICU admissions. Since SIRs using patient case-mix information are important for comparing rates between hospitals, the additional allowance for hospital characteristics can impact significantly on how hospitals compare.

Initial infection with the sentinel respiratory pathogen in children with cystic fibrosis (CF), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (Pa), is generally with environmental strains of this ubiquitous organism. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the associations between meteorological and geographical factors and risk of initial Pa acquisition in young children with CF. Using the U.S. Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry from 2003 to 2009, 3463 patients met inclusion criteria, of which 48% (n = 1659) acquired Pa during follow-up. From multivariable Weibull regression, increased risk of Pa acquisition was associated with increasing temperature [hazard ratio (HR) per 1 °C: 1·13; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·08–1·13], dew point (HR per 1 °C: 1·10, 95% CI 1·07–1·13), rainfall (HR per cm: 1·10, 95% CI 1·07–1·12), latitude (HR per 1 °C northing: 1·15, 95% CI 1·11–1·20), longitude (HR per 1 °C easting: 1·01, 95% CI 1·01–1·02) and elevation (HR per 100 m: 1·05, 95% CI 1·03–1·07). These results suggest that environmental factors may play a previously unrecognized role in the aetiology of initial Pa acquisition.