Historical enquiry into diseases with morbidity or mortality predilections for particular demographic groups can permit clarification of their emergence, endemicity, and epidemicity. During community-wide outbreaks of hepatitis A in the pre-vaccine era, clinical attack rates were higher among juveniles rather than adults. In community-wide hepatitis E outbreaks, past and present, mortality rates have been most pronounced among pregnant women. Examination for these characteristic predilections in reports of jaundice outbreaks in the USA traces the emergence of hepatitis A and also of hepatitis E to the closing three decades of the 19th century. Thereafter, outbreaks of hepatitis A burgeoned, whereas those of hepatitis E abated. There were, in addition, community-wide outbreaks that bore features of neither hepatitis A nor E; they occurred before the 1870s. The American Civil War antedated that period. If hepatitis A had yet to establish endemicity, then it would not underlie the jaundice epidemic that was widespread during the war. Such an assessment may be revised, however, with the discovery of more extant outbreak reports.

Norovirus is one of the leading causes of viral gastroenteritis worldwide and responsible for substantial morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. To further understanding of the epidemiology and control of norovirus, there has been much recent interest in describing the transmission dynamics of norovirus through mathematical models. In this study, we review the current modelling approaches for norovirus transmission. We examine the data and methods used to estimate these models that vary structurally and parametrically between different epidemiological contexts. Many of the existing studies at population level have focused on the same case notification dataset, whereas models from outbreak settings are highly specific and difficult to generalise. In this review, we explore the consistency in the description of norovirus transmission dynamics and the robustness of parameter estimates between studies. In particular, we find that there is considerable variability in estimates of key parameters such as the basic reproduction number, which may mean that the effort required to control norovirus at the population level may currently be underestimated.

Norovirus is the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis in the USA. Although secondary household transmission of norovirus is frequently reported in outbreaks, little is known about specific risk factors for susceptibility and infectiousness in the household. Three norovirus outbreaks were investigated and data were collected on individuals exposed in the primary outbreak setting and their household members. Potential individual- and household-level risk factors for susceptibility and infectiousness were assessed using univariate and multivariate generalised linear mixed models. In the univariate models, the secondary attack rate (SAR) was significantly higher when living in a household with two or more primary cases (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 2·1; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·37–3·29), more than one primary case with vomiting (IRR = 1·9; CI 1·11–3·37), and at least one primary case with diarrhoea (IRR = 3·0; CI 1·46–6·01). After controlling for other risk factors in the multivariate models, the SAR was significantly higher among those living in a household with two or more primary cases (adjusted IRR = 2·0; CI 1·17–3·47) and at least one primary case with diarrhoea (adjusted IRR = 2·8; CI 1·35–5·93). These findings underscore the importance of maintaining proper hygiene and isolating ill household members to prevent norovirus transmission in the household.

Influenza epidemics are monitored using influenza-like illness (ILI) data reported by health-care professionals. Timely detection of the onset of epidemics is often performed by applying a statistical method on weekly ILI incidence estimates with a large range of methods used worldwide. However, performance evaluation and comparison of these algorithms is hindered by: (1) the absence of a gold standard regarding influenza epidemic periods and (2) the absence of consensual evaluation criteria. As of now, performance evaluations metrics are based only on sensitivity, specificity and timeliness of detection, since definitions are not clear for time-repeated measurements such as weekly epidemic detection. We aimed to evaluate several epidemic detection methods by comparing their alerts to a gold standard determined by international expert consensus. We introduced new performance metrics that meet important objective of influenza surveillance in temperate countries: to detect accurately the start of the single epidemic period each year. Evaluations are presented using ILI incidence in France between 1995 and 2011. We found that the two performance metrics defined allowed discrimination between epidemic detection methods. In the context of performance detection evaluation, other metrics used commonly than the standard could better achieve the needs of real-time influenza surveillance.

This study evaluated the annual prevalence of anogenital warts (AGW) caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) and analysed the trend in annual per cent changes (APC) by using national claims data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment of Korea, 2007–2015. We also estimated the socio-economic burden and co-morbidities of AGW. All analyses were performed based on data for primary A63.0, the specific diagnosis code for AGW. The socio-economic cost of AGW was calculated based on the direct medical cost, direct non-medical cost and indirect cost. The overall AGW prevalence and socio-economic burden has increased during the last 9 years. However, the prevalence of AGW differed significantly by sex. The female prevalence increased until 2012, and decreased thereafter (APC + 3·6%). It would fall after the introduction of routine HPV vaccination, principally for females, in Korea. The male prevalence increased continuously over time (APC + 11·6%), especially in those aged 20–49 years. Referring to the increasing AGW prevalence and its disease burden, active HPV infection control surveillance and prevention in males are worth consideration.

In August 2015, Public Health England detected an outbreak of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) serotype O157:H7 caused by contaminated salad leaves in a mixed leaf prepacked salad product from a national retailer. The implicated leaves were cultivated at five different farms and the zoonotic source of the outbreak strain was not determined. In March 2016, additional isolates from new cases were identified that shared a recent common ancestor with the outbreak strain. A case–case study involving the cases identified in 2016 revealed that ovine exposures were associated with illness (n = 16; AOR 8·24; 95% CI 1·55–39·74). By mapping the recent movement of sheep and lambs across the United Kingdom, epidemiological links were established between the cases reporting ovine exposures. Given the close phylogenetic relationship between the outbreak strain and the isolates from cases with ovine exposures, it is plausible that ovine faeces may have contaminated the salad leaves via untreated irrigation water or run-off from fields nearby. Timely and targeted veterinary and environmental sampling should be considered during foodborne outbreaks of STEC, particularly where ready to eat vegetables and salads are implicated.

This study assessed variation in coverage of maternal pertussis vaccination, introduced in England in October 2012 in response to a national outbreak, and a new infant rotavirus vaccination programme, implemented in July 2013. Vaccine eligible patients were included from national vaccine coverage datasets and covered April 2014 to March 2015 for pertussis and January 2014 to June 2016 for rotavirus. Vaccine coverage (%) was calculated overall and by NHS England Local Team (LT), ethnicity and Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) quintile, and compared using binomial regression. Compared with white-British infants, the largest differences in rotavirus coverage were in ‘other’, white-Irish and black-Caribbean infants (−13·9%, −12·1% and −10·7%, respectively), after adjusting for IMD and LT. The largest differences in maternal pertussis coverage were in black-other and black-Caribbean women (−16·3% and −15·4%, respectively). Coverage was lowest in London LT for both programmes. Coverage decreased with increasing deprivation and was 14·0% lower in the most deprived quintile compared with the least deprived for the pertussis programme and 4·4% lower for rotavirus. Patients’ ethnicity and deprivation were therefore predictors of coverage which contributed to, but did not wholly account for, geographical variation in coverage in England.

Pertussis morbidity is highest in infants too young to be fully protected by routine vaccination schedules. Alternate vaccine strategies are required to maximise protection in this age-group. To understand baseline pertussis epidemiology prior to the introduction of the maternal pertussis vaccination program in 2014, we conducted a retrospective case series analyses of 53 901 notifications and temporal trends from 1997 to 2014. Notifications were highest in infants younger than 4 months of age and highest annual notification rates in infants younger than 1 month of age (308/100 000 per year). Amongst Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander infants aged younger than 1 month, this rate was 576/100 000 per year. Notification rates were 40% higher amongst women 15–44 years, 62·4/100 000 population compared with men (44·5/100 000) and 90% higher in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women of the same age (38·2/100 000) compared with men (19·7/100 000). Six infant deaths were identified, all younger than 2 months of age. Monitoring epidemiology in at-risk groups – infants too young to be vaccinated, women of childbearing age and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples – following implementation of the maternal pertussis vaccination program will be important to assess its impact and safety.

We examined the association between a history of smallpox vaccination and immune activation (IA) in a population of antiretroviral therapy-naïve people living with HIV (PLHIV). A cross-sectional study was conducted in Senegal from July 2015 to March 2017. Smallpox vaccination was ascertained by the presence of smallpox vaccine scar and IA by the plasma level of β-2-microglobulin (β2m). The association was analysed using logistic regression and linear regression models. The study population comprised 101 PLHIV born before 1980 with a median age of 47 years (interquartile range (IQR) = 42–55); 57·4% were women. Smallpox vaccine scar was present in 65·3% and the median β2m level was 2·59 mg/l (IQR = 2·06–3·86). After adjustment, the presence of smallpox vaccine scar was not associated with a β2m level ⩾2·59 mg/l (adjusted odds ratio 0·94; 95% confidence interval 0·32–2·77). This result was confirmed by the linear regression model. Our study does not find any association between the presence of smallpox vaccine scar and the β2m level and does not support any association between a previous smallpox vaccination and HIV disease progression. In this study, IA is not a significant determinant of the reported non-targeted effect of smallpox vaccination in PLHIV.

Effective methods to increase awareness of preventable infectious diseases are key components of successful control programmes. Rabies is an example of a disease with significant impact, where public awareness is variable. A recent awareness campaign in a rabies endemic region of Azerbaijan provided a unique opportunity to assess the efficacy of such campaigns. A cluster cross-sectional survey concerning rabies was undertaken following the awareness campaign in 600 households in 38 randomly selected towns, in districts covered by the campaign and matched control regions. This survey demonstrated that the relatively simple awareness campaign was effective at improving knowledge of rabies symptoms and vaccination schedules. Crucially, those in the awareness campaign group were also 1·4 times more likely to report that they had vaccinated their pets, an essential component of human rabies prevention. In addition, low knowledge of appropriate post-exposure treatment and animal sources of rabies provide information useful for future public awareness campaigns in the region and other similar areas.

The number of dengue epidemics in Brazil has increased dramatically in the last 15 years. In this study, we analysed the seasonal patterns in the incidence of hospitalisations due to dengue across the different states of Brazil and compared these with the corresponding climatic patterns. We discovered that the seasonality of dengue hospitalisations in Brazil has a clear zonal gradient, characterised by the progression of primary peaks from West to East during the first half of the year, which may be associated with the increased vapour pressure and rainfall during this period, leading to increased mosquito abundance and activity. We also found that the proportion of children among hospitalised individuals was especially high during the peak outbreaks in 2007/2008 and 2010. This may be due to the emergence and spread of the new DENV-2 Southeast Asian genotype lineage II from 2007, which has probably arrived from the Caribbean and may have caused an increase in incidence and severity of the disease, particularly among children. Our findings may allow health systems to improve control interventions and contribute to reducing dengue morbidity and mortality by using integrated vector control in conjunction with early diagnosis and prompt supportive care.

Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) is the preferred first-line test for all persons with tuberculosis (TB) symptoms in South Africa in line with a diagnostic algorithm. This study evaluates pre- and post-implementation trends in diagnostic practices for drug-sensitive, pulmonary TB in adults in an operational setting, following the introduction of the Xpert-based algorithm. We retrospectively analysed data from the national TB database for Greater Tzaneen sub-district, Limpopo Province. Trends in a number of cases, diagnosis and outcome and characteristics associated with death are reported. A total of 8407 cases were treated from 2008 until 2015, with annual cases registered decreasing by 31·7% over that time period (from 1251 to 855 per year). After implementation of Xpert, 69·9% of cases were diagnosed by Xpert, 29·4% clinically, 0·6% by smear microscopy and 0·1% by culture. Cases with a recorded microbiological test increased from 76·2% to 96·4%. Cases started on treatment without confirmation, but with a negative microbiological test increased from 7·1% to 25·7%. Case fatality decreased from 15·0% to 9·8%, remaining consistently higher in empirically treated groups, regardless of HIV status. Implementation of the algorithm coincided with a reduced number of TB cases treated and improved coverage of microbiological testing; however, a substantial proportion of cases continued to start treatment empirically.

A link between infection, inflammation, neurodevelopment and adult illnesses has been proposed. The objective of this study was to examine the association between infection burden during childhood – a critical period of development for the immune and nervous systems – and subsequent systemic inflammatory markers and general intelligence. In the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a prospective birth cohort in England, we examined the association of exposure to infections during childhood, assessed at seven follow-ups between age 1·5 and 7·5 years, with subsequent: (1) serum interleukin 6 and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels at age 9; (2) intelligence quotient (IQ) at age 8. We also examined the relationship between inflammatory markers and IQ. Very high infection burden (90+ percentile) was associated with higher CRP levels, but this relationship was explained by body mass index (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1·19; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0·95–1·50), maternal occupation (adjusted OR 1·23; 95% CI 0·98–1·55) and atopic disorders (adjusted OR 1·24; 95% CI 0·98–1·55). Higher CRP levels were associated with lower IQ; adjusted β = −0·79 (95% CI −1·31 to −0·27); P = 0·003. There was no strong evidence for an association between infection and IQ. The findings indicate that childhood infections do not have an independent, lasting effect on circulating inflammatory marker levels subsequently in childhood; however, elevated inflammatory markers may be harmful for intellectual development/function.

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) continues to produce a significant burden of disease in New Zealand (NZ) Māori and Pacific peoples. Serious limitations in national surveillance data mean that accurate case totals cannot be generated. Given the changing epidemiology of ARF in NZ and the major national rheumatic fever prevention programme (2012–2017), we updated our previous likely true case number estimates using capture–recapture analyses. Aims were to estimate the likely true incidence of ARF in NZ and comment on the changing ability to detect cases. Data were obtained from national hospitalisation and notification databases. The Chapman Estimate partially adjusted for bias. An estimated 2342 likely true new cases arose from 1997 to 2015, giving a mean annual incidence of 2·9 per 100 000 (95% CI 2·5–3·5). Compared with the pre-intervention (2009–2011) baseline incidence (3·4 per 100 000, 95% CI 2·9–4·0), the likely true 2015 incidence declined 44%. Large gaps in data completeness are slowly closing. During the period 2012–2015, 723 cases were identified; 83·8% of notifications were matched to hospitalisation data, and 87·2% of hospitalisations matched to notifications. Despite this improvement, clinicians need to remain aware of the need to notify atypical patients. A possible unintended consequence of the national ARF prevention programme is increased misdiagnosis.

The Joint Commission Centre for Transforming Healthcare's Web-based Targeted Solutions Tool (TST) for improving hand hygiene was implemented to elucidate contributing factors to low compliance rates of hand hygiene. Monitoring of compliance was done by trained unknown and known observers and rates of hospital-acquired infections were tracked and correlated against the changes in hand hygiene compliance. In total, 5669 of hand hygiene observations were recorded by the secret observers. The compliance rate increased from 75·4% at baseline (May–August 2014) to 88·6% during the intervention (13 months) and the control periods (P < 0·0001). Reductions in healthcare-associated infection rates were recorded for Clostridium difficle infections from 7·95 (CI 0·8937–28·72) to 1·84 (CI 0·02411–10·26) infections per 10 000 patient-days (P = 0·23), central line-associated blood-stream infections from 5·9 (CI 1·194–17·36) to 2·9 (0·7856–7·475) per 1000 device days (P = 0·37) and catheter-associated urinary tract infections from 5·941 (CI 1·194–17·36) to 0 per 1000 device days (P = 0·42). The top contributing factors for non-compliance were: improper use of gloves, hands full of supplies or medications and frequent entry or exit in isolation areas. We conclude that the application of TST allows healthcare organisations to improve hand hygiene compliance and to identify the factors contributing to non-compliance.