We evaluate the impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (TCJA) pension tax break on sponsor contributions to defined-benefit retirement plans. We exploit cross-sectional variation in ex-ante exposure to the tax break. We find that the tax break induced an extra $2.8 billion of sponsor contributions to medium- and large-scale plans in 2017. However, we find strong evidence of reversal, both in terms of sponsor contributions and plan funding ratios by 2018. Our contributions model indicates that this reversal is consistent with more binding financial constraints in 2018 relative to 2019. Our results suggest that the TCJA did not have a long-lasting impact on corporate defined-benefit pension funds.

This paper addresses the retirement income planning problem from the perspective of the four main building blocks of retirement income: state pension, mortality credits, investment strategies, and drawdown schedules. We detail how these building blocks interact to form a retiree's overall retirement income portfolio, and what trade-offs and interactions must be considered. We find that while access to each building block increases the retiree's certainty equivalent consumption, the most substantial contributor to this increase is from utilization of the mortality credit building block (i.e., annuities).

Declining labor force participation of older men throughout the 20th century and recent increases in participation have generated substantial interest in understanding the effect of public pensions on retirement. The National Bureau of Economic Research's International Social Security (ISS) Project, a long-term collaboration among researchers in a dozen developed countries, has explored this and related questions. The project employs a harmonized approach to conduct within-country analyses that are combined for meaningful cross-country comparisons. The key lesson is that the choices of policy makers affect the incentive to work at older ages and these incentives have important effects on retirement behavior.

This paper investigates the relationship between growth and quality of pension funds. It measures growth in terms of changes in the number of participants and cash flow transfers and appreciates the quality of the funds through the set of information on past results and costs published in the official prospectuses. The results show that growth rewards the best performing funds in the long term, while annual performance and costs have no relevance. Nevertheless, other factors, such as market power and commercial pressure, appear to be more powerful. The existence of conditions of market power capable of attracting investors beyond the actual quality of pension products is undesirable as it harms future pensioners. These results have implications for the Authority, as mandatory information should be suitable to induce investors to identify the best products and direct individual choices toward the public objective of a more efficient market.

Despite a decade-long bull market between the financial crisis and the COVID-19 recession, state defined benefit pension plans had accrued more than $1.37 trillion in unfunded liabilities. However, little work has investigated the actuarial sources of these unfunded liabilities. This paper uses original data hand collected from publicly available financial reports between 2000 and 2020 for 145 state-administered pension plans to determine the sources of unfunded liabilities. The largest unfunded liability contributor is investment experiences (when actual investment returns do not match assumed returns). The second and third largest contributors are changes to actuarial assumptions and expected changes (or interest accruing on existing unfunded liabilities). Benefit experience and legislative changes, demographic experience, and explicit funding shortfalls account for relatively little of the growth in unfunded liabilities. Moreover, the specific sources of unfunded liabilities are heterogeneous over time and across plans.

The papers in this 20th Anniversary Special Issue reflect to a large extent how the fields of pension economics and pension finance have developed in the past two decades, although there remain very clear connections to the research published in the Journal's first issue. While there has been great progress in research on pensions and retirement economics over the last 20 years, there remain important outstanding questions for future study.

As a result of unfavorable demographic processes, the pension systems in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) EU countries face significant challenges, which has made the implementation of reforms inevitable in the last decade. Relying on economic theory, this paper analyses the effects of the Hungarian pension reforms in comparison with those of other CEE countries, and discusses the consequences from the point of view of social policy and the sustainability of the pension schemes. We explore the reasons why the reforms in Hungary ultimately did not improve sustainability but rather contributed to dismantling the social care system. Therefore, the Hungarian case provides useful lessons for other countries, and at the same time underlines the importance of automatic adjustment mechanisms. The study pays particular attention to the theoretical analysis of pension indexation because its accurate quantitative effects are far from being sufficiently clarified in the literature, although it is vital for a thoughtful evaluation of pension reforms.

We test the effectiveness of an online interactive pension dashboard in improving pension funds participants' ability to make adequate pension decisions in terms of pension preparation, knowledge, self-efficacy, expectations, and intention-to-act. In a randomized survey experiment, treated participants of two pension funds receive an encouragement to visit an online pension dashboard. Treated individuals have more pension knowledge and an increased self-efficacy in the pension domain, especially so for females. The dashboard does not have a significant impact on the pension preparation or the errors in forecasts of pension income nor does it impact the willingness to act if there is a need to do so.

Our study investigates the influence of the Korean National Pension Fund's equity ownership on voting premiums, revealing a statistically significant reduction. In particular, we establish the liquidity pathway as the primary factor among the three channels previously suggested in the literature. Analysis of the COVID-19 era and the VKospi index underscores this predominance. These findings enrich the literature on public pension funds and capital markets, providing policymakers in emerging economies with a deeper understanding of the dynamics involved in establishing pension investment institutions.

We investigate whether a benchmark and non-constant risk aversion affect the probability density distribution of optimal wealth at retirement. We maximize the expected utility of the ratio of pension wealth at retirement to an inflation-indexed benchmark. Together with a threshold and a lower bound, we are able to generate closed-form solutions. We find that this non-constant risk aversion type of utility could shift the probability density distribution of optimal wealth more towards the benchmark, and that the probability of achieving a certain percentage of the desired benchmark could be increased. The probability density distribution generated under constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) risk preference is more widely spread along the benchmark.

Using the instrumental variable approach on nationally representative, individual-level data on middle-aged pension participants in China, this study quantifies the peer effect in the context of forming pension expectations. The study confirms the existence of the peer effect in forming pension expectations in the community. The probability of having optimistic pension expectations significantly increases by 0.309 percentage points if the proportion of optimists in the community increases by 1 percentage point. Moreover, the study explores the channels through which the peer effect operates and finds that the social learning channel dominates the social norms channel. The study also provides empirical evidence that village and township leaders as well as those with old pension program experience are opinion leaders in their peer group. Lastly, we find peer effects in other pension decisions, e.g., contribution size, and the contribution size increases by the proportion of optimists in the community. The study provides policy implications on ways to improve willingness to contribute to pension programs.

Is it possible to achieve almost riskless, nonfluctuating investment payoffs in the long run, at a fraction of the traditional funding requirement, using equity investments? What is their shortfall risk? These questions are motivated by the need to increase yields, while limiting the variability of investment results. We show how to use contingent claims, denominated in units of a stock index, to achieve an almost riskless investment outcome. To control the risk of the proposed hedge portfolios, we introduce an overfunded scheme and show its reliability using bootstrapping. Results show that a modest amount of overfunding is an effective risk-management approach that brings the probability of not achieving the target to less than 1 percent. Our results are based on the use of the minimal market model and a change of numeraire. Robustness tests support their validity under different market specifications.

Twenty years ago, the adjustment to monthly Social Security benefits for early or delayed claiming was, on average, roughly actuarially fair, although some subsets of individuals could gain from delay. Since then, delaying claiming has become much more attractive thanks to three factors: a more generous delayed retirement credit, improvements in mortality, and historically low real interest rates. In this article, I examine how these three factors influence optimal claiming behavior. I also discuss empirical patterns of claiming across individuals and over time, as well as explanations for these patterns. I argue that although many people appear to claim suboptimally early, this behavior may be changing as information spreads about the importance of the claiming decision. Finally, I discuss policy toward claiming and the impact that an increase in strategic claiming could have on Social Security's finances.

This paper develops a general equilibrium life-cycle model with endogenous retirement that focuses on the interplay between old-age pensions (OAP) and disability pensions (DP) in Germany. Germany has introduced a phased-in increase of the normal retirement age from age 65 to 67 (Reform 2007) and closed off other routes to early OAP retirement. This reform was followed by a phased-in expansion of future DP benefits (Reform 2018). Our simulation results indicate that the first reform will induce a shift toward DP retirement, while the Reform 2018 will even neutralize the financial and economic gains of the Reform 2007 if current DP eligibility and benefit rules remain unchanged. We therefore highlight the increased relevance of DP when reforming the retirement system and retirement incentives in an aging society. Securing the financial stability of public pensions requires activation and rehabilitation of sick elderly in the workforce and tight access to disability benefits.

Target date funds (TDFs) provide retirement investors, many of whom are unsophisticated or inattentive, with age-appropriate exposures to different asset classes like stocks and bonds. To maintain exposures, TDFs trade actively against market returns, buying stock funds when the stock market does poorly, and selling when the market does well (Parker et al., 2023, Journal of Finance). This paper shows that trading by TDFs was a significant stabilizing force in US equity markets during the unprecedented economic volatility of the COVID-19 pandemic period. Specifically, TDFs – now comprising a quarter of all 401(k) plan assets – caused significant contrarian investment flows across asset classes, flows that were not undone by enrollment of TDF investors or by discretionary actions by TDF managers. Mutual funds with large ownership by TDFs had more stable funding through the pandemic, and stocks that had greater indirect ownership by TDFs had lower co-movement with the market and lower volatility during the pandemic period.

We propose an economic reformulation of contribution policy integrating: (1) formalization of sustainability as the steady-state contribution rate, incorporating both the expected return on risky assets and a low-risk discount rate for liabilities; (2) derivation of contribution adjustment policies required for convergence toward the target funded ratio and contribution rate; and (3) a stylized optimization framework for simultaneous determination of the target portfolio return and funded ratio. This analysis provides new theoretical insights into the basis for pre-funding vs. pay-as-you-go, resting on the convexity of the long-run risk–return relationship, and also potentially practical guidelines for contribution policy.

This study examines the interest in different pension payout schemes when full annuitization is the default. We focus on three possible pension payout schemes: a flat-rate annuity, a high/low annuity-based profile, and a partial lump sum at retirement with a lower flat-rate annuity after that. We make use of a vignette study and find substantial interest in each of the three payout schemes. Interest in the lump sum scheme increases when a higher percentage can be taken out as a lump sum or when interest rates or replacement rates are lower. Interest in a high/low annuity-based profile increases when the high annuity is valid for a shorter period.

We develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations framework with incompletely rational individuals to study old-age saving incentives. Such incentives are used worldwide to help achieve the high savings rate required to sustain sufficient consumption in old age. We show that they raise the welfare of financially illiterate individuals and those with a high degree of time inconsistency. They also reduce the incidence of poverty in old age. We further quantify the fiscal cost, crowd-out, and ability to target the transfers to individuals who need the most. Given the high prevalence of these schemes, our paper has broad policy implications.

We study a retirement savings plan with a default contribution rate of 12 percent of income, which is much higher than previously studied defaults. Twenty-five percent of employees had not opted out of this default 12 months after hire; a literature review finds that the corresponding fraction in plans with lower defaults is approximately one-half. Because only contributions above 12 percent were matched by the employer, 12 percent was likely to be a suboptimal contribution rate for employees. Employees who remained at the 12 percent default contribution rate had average income that was approximately one-third lower than would be predicted from the relationship between salaries and contribution rates among employees who were not at 12 percent. Defaults may influence low-income employees more strongly in part because these employees face higher psychological barriers to active decision making.

At the onset of the Covid-19 crisis, and with one of the largest and best-funded defined contribution programs in Latin America, Chile held over USD $200 bn in assets (or more than 80% of GDP). Reacting to populist pressures during the pandemic, however, the Congress gave non-retired participants three separate opportunities to tap into their retirement accounts, leaving some 4.2 million participants with zero retirement savings and draining around $50 bn from the system. This paper explores several hypotheses regarding why people withdrew their pension money early, and it also presents evidence regarding the likely impact of this short-term policy on long-term retirement wellbeing. We conclude with lessons for global policymakers seeking to protect pension assets critical for retirement security.