Objective: To develop and apply a novel modeling approach to support medical and public health disaster planning and response using a sarin release scenario in a metropolitan environment.

Methods: An agent-based disaster simulation model was developed incorporating the principles of dose response, surge response, and psychosocial characteristics superimposed on topographically accurate geographic information system architecture. The modeling scenarios involved passive and active releases of sarin in multiple transportation hubs in a metropolitan city. Parameters evaluated included emergency medical services, hospital surge capacity (including implementation of disaster plan), and behavioral and psychosocial characteristics of the victims.

Results: In passive sarin release scenarios of 5 to 15 L, mortality increased nonlinearly from 0.13% to 8.69%, reaching 55.4% with active dispersion, reflecting higher initial doses. Cumulative mortality rates from releases in 1 to 3 major transportation hubs similarly increased nonlinearly as a function of dose and systemic stress. The increase in mortality rate was most pronounced in the 80% to 100% emergency department occupancy range, analogous to the previously observed queuing phenomenon. Effective implementation of hospital disaster plans decreased mortality and injury severity. Decreasing ambulance response time and increasing available responding units reduced mortality among potentially salvageable patients. Adverse psychosocial characteristics (excess worry and low compliance) increased demands on health care resources. Transfer to alternative urban sites was possible.

Conclusions: An agent-based modeling approach provides a mechanism to assess complex individual and systemwide effects in rare events. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3:75–87)

Background: The humanitarian crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been among the world’s deadliest in recent decades. We conducted our third nationwide survey to examine trends in mortality rates during a period of changing political, security, and humanitarian conditions.

Methods: We used a 3-stage, household-based cluster sampling technique to compare east and west DRC. Sixteen east health zones and 15 west zones were selected with a probability proportional to population size. Four east zones were purposely selected to allow historical comparisons. The 20 smallest population units were sampled in each zone, 20 households in each unit. The number and distribution of households determined whether they were selected using systematic random or random walk sampling. Respondents were asked about deaths of household members during the recall period: January 2006–April 2007.

Findings: In all, 14,000 households were visited. The national crude mortality rate of 2.2 deaths per 1000 population per month (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.1–2.3) is almost 70% higher than that documented for DRC in the 1984 census (1.3) and is unchanged since 2004. A small but significant decrease in mortality since 2004 in the insecure east (rate ratio: 0.96, P = .026) was offset by increases in the western provinces and a transition area in the center of the country. Nonetheless, the crude mortality rate in the insecure east (2.6) remains significantly higher than in the other regions (2.0 and 2.1, respectively). Deaths from violence have declined since 2004 (rate ratio 0.7, P = .02).

Conclusions: More than 4 years after the official end of war, the crude mortality rate remains elevated across DRC. Slight but significant improvements in mortality in the insecure east coincided temporally with recent progress on security, humanitarian, and political fronts. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3:88–96)

Objective: To assess care-seeking behaviors, perceptions of quality, and access to health services among populations affected by the 2007 Peruvian earthquake.

Methods: A stratified cluster survey design was used to allow for comparison between urban, periurban, and rural populations of the 4 provinces most affected by the earthquake. Forty-two clusters of 16 households (n = 672) were interviewed approximately 6 months after the earthquake.

Results: Of all of the respondents, 38% reported that a household member sought medical care within 2 weeks after the earthquake. Earthquake-related injury, presence of a chronic medical condition, and residence in temporary housing were significantly associated with care seeking in adjusted models. Individuals experiencing earthquake-related injuries and those with chronic medical conditions, respectively, were 7.1 times (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.7–13.7) and 1.9 times (95% CI 1.3–2.9) more likely to seek medical care; temporary housing residents were 1.7 times (95% CI 1.0–2.8) more likely to seek care than those residing in permanent housing.

Conclusions: Earthquake-related injury and chronic medical conditions were associated with care seeking in the first 2 weeks after the 2007 Ica earthquake. Households living in temporary housing were more likely to seek medical care than those residing in permanent structures, suggesting that displaced people are more likely to need medical attention. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3:97–103)

Objective: Legal preparedness is a critical component of comprehensive public health preparedness for public health emergencies. The scope of this study was to assess the usefulness of combining didactic sessions with a tabletop exercise as educational tools in legal preparedness, to assess the impact of the exercise on the participants’ level of confidence about the legal preparedness of a public health system, and to identify legal issue areas in need of further improvement.

Methods: The exercise scenario and the pre- and postexercise evaluation were designed to assess knowledge gained and level of confidence in declaration of emergencies, isolation and quarantine, restrictions (including curfew) on the movement of people, closure of public places, and mass prophylaxis, and to identify legal preparedness areas most in need of further improvement at the system level. Fisher exact test and paired t test were performed to compare pre- and postexercise results.

Results: Our analysis shows that a combination of didactic teaching and experiential learning through a tabletop exercise regarding legal preparedness for infectious disease emergencies can be effective in both imparting perceived knowledge to participants and gathering information about sufficiency of authorities and existence of gaps.

Conclusions: The exercise provided a valuable forum to judge the adequacy of legal authorities, policies, and procedures for dealing with pandemic influenza at the state and local levels in Massachusetts. In general, participants were more confident about the availability and sufficiency of legal authorities than they were about policies and procedures for implementing them. Participants were also more likely to report the need for improvement in authorities, policies, and procedures in the private sector and at the local level than at the state level. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3:104–110)

The filing of criminal charges against a group of clinicians in New Orleans for failure to meet expected standards of care following the hurricanes of 2005 made the growing concern among health professionals about care provided during extreme emergencies or disasters all too real. Questions about what may lead to censure, penalties from licensing boards, or lawsuits have come from nurses, physicians, and many other licensed health professionals. A panel convened by the American Nurses Association that included representatives of medical, public health, hospital, and government agencies considered the ethical, professional, and practical aspects of meeting standards of care in such circumstances. Clinicians are reminded that in emergencies, it is only the circumstances that change (perhaps radically); neither the individual’s professional competency nor the basic professional standard of care is different. In making prioritized decisions under such circumstances, the individual’s ethical framework is utilitarian, and there are 3 areas for action, even when some routine tasks are set aside: maintain worker and patient safety; maintain airway, breathing, and circulation; and establish or maintain infection control. Policy recommendations such as state legislation for the adoption of comprehensive immunity for volunteer health care workers, and the establishment of a medical review panel as arbitration board are also suggested. The resulting white paper summarizes the issues and provides guidance to individual professionals, institutions in which they work, and emergency planners. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3:111–116)

According to many experts, a public health emergency arising from an influenza pandemic, bioterrorism attack, or natural disaster is likely to develop in the next few years. Meeting the public health and medical response needs created by such an emergency will likely involve volunteers, health care professionals, public and private hospitals and clinics, vaccine manufacturers, governmental authorities, and many others. Conducting response activities in emergency circumstances may give rise to numerous issues of liability, and medical professionals and other potential responders have expressed concern about liability exposure. Providers may face inadequate resources, an insufficient number of qualified personnel, overwhelming demand for services, and other barriers to providing optimal treatment, which could lead to injury or even death in some cases. This article describes the different theories of liability that may be used by plaintiffs and the sources of immunity that are available to public health emergency responders in the public sector, private sector, and as volunteers. It synthesizes the existing immunity landscape and analyzes its gaps. Finally, the authors suggest consideration of the option of a comprehensive immunity provision that addresses liability protection for all health care providers during public health emergencies and that, consequently, assists in improving community emergency response efforts. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2009;3:117–125)