Revisions of U.S. macroeconomic data are persistent, correlated with real-time data, and with high variability (around 80% of U.S. real-time data volatility). This paper adapts a DSGE-style model to accommodate both real-time and revised data from the U.S. economy. The results show a lesser role of both habit formation and price indexation than in the standard model. In the simulations, revision shocks to both output and inflation are expansionary because the Fed reacts by cutting interest rates. Consumption revisions, in contrast, are countercyclical, consumption mirrors the observed reduction in real-time consumption. In the variance decomposition, data revisions explain 9.3% of output changes.

This paper investigates the interactions between three key macroeconomic imbalances, namely current-account discrepancies (external imbalances), output gaps (internal imbalances), and exchange-rate misalignments. We estimate a panel VAR model for a sample of 22 industrialized countries over the period 1980–2011. Our findings show that macroeconomic imbalances strongly interact through a causal relationship. If current-account disequilibria threaten the stability of the global economy, their origin can be found in internal imbalances and exchange-rate misalignments: positive output-gap shocks as well as currency overvaluation deepen current-account deficits. In addition, although variations in external imbalances mainly result from exchange-rate misalignments in the euro area, they are mostly explained by output gaps for non-eurozone members.

This paper examines the mechanisms through which government spending affects the dynamics of the real exchange rate. Using a two-sector dependent open economy model with intersectoral mobility costs for private capital, we show that public investment generates (i) a nonmonotonic U-shaped adjustment path for the real exchange rate with sharp intertemporal trade-offs and (ii) a crowding-in of private consumption, consistent with stylized facts. The effects of public consumption, however, are in sharp contrast to those of public investment. The effect of government spending on the real exchange rate depends critically on (i) the sectoral composition of public spending, (ii) the underlying financing policy, (iii) the sectoral intensity of private capital in production, (iv) the relative sectoral productivity of public infrastructure, (v) the elasticity of substitution in production, and (vi) intersectoral mobility costs for capital. In deriving these results, we identify conditions under which the predictions of the neoclassical open economy model can be reconciled with empirical regularities. Our results underscore the importance of decoupling the effects of government investment from those of government consumption in understanding the relationship between fiscal policy and the real exchange rate.

This paper compares the stochastic behavior of fiscal variables under optimal fiscal policy for the cases of full commitment by the government (Ramsey problem) and no commitment by the government (focusing on differentiable Markov perfect equilibrium). It shows that the cyclical properties of fiscal variables are similar for both commitment assumptions. These conclusions are robust to two different specifications of the structure of public bonds (risk-free and state-contingent) and to different sets of the parameters. The cyclical properties of fiscal variables, regardless of commitment assumptions, can be determined by the parameters of the utility function.

This paper applies a social learning model to the optimal consumption rule of Allen and Carroll [Macroeconomic Dynamics 5(2001), 255–271] and delivers convincing convergence dynamics toward the optimal rule. These findings constitute a significant improvement over previous results in the literature, in terms of both speed of convergence and parsimony of the learning model. The learning model exhibits several appealing features: it is frugal, is easy to apply to a various range of learning objectives, and requires few procedures and little information. Particular care is given to behavioral interpretation of the modeling assumptions in light of evidence from the fields of psychology and social science. Our results highlight the need to depart from the genetic metaphor, and account for intentional decision-making, based on agents' relative performances. By contrast, we show that convergence is strongly hindered by exact imitation processes, or random exploration mechanisms, which are usually assumed when modeling social learning behavior. Our results suggest a method for modeling bounded rationality, which could be interestingly tested in a wide range of economic models with adaptive dynamics.

The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) driven by unit labor costs has been criticized for failing to match inflation dynamics and for failing to explain the duration of price contracts. This paper extends recent attempts in the literature to improve the fit of the NKPC, by introducing a fuller marginal cost proxy, unit total costs, that is derived from both labor and nonlabor unit costs; the latter include capital-related costs and production taxes. Borrowing costs are examined separately, as in the cost channel literature. Unit total costs are shown to improve the fit of the short-run variation in inflation and strengthen the empirical support for the role of expectations-based inflation persistence. They also imply a duration of fixed nominal contracts that is closer to those suggested by firm-level surveys. The cost channel becomes relatively less important when unit total costs, rather than unit labor costs, are used as a marginal cost proxy.

Time inconsistency is an essential feature of many policy problems. This paper presents and compares three methods for computing Markov-perfect optimal policies in stochastic nonlinear business cycle models. The methods considered include value function iteration, generalized Euler equations, and parameterized shadow prices. In the context of a business cycle model in which a fiscal authority chooses government spending and income taxation optimally, although lacking the ability to commit, we show that the solutions obtained using value function iteration and generalized Euler equations are somewhat more accurate than that obtained using parameterized shadow prices. Among these three methods, we show that value function iteration can be applied easily, even to environments that include a risk-sensitive fiscal authority and/or inequality constraints on government spending. We show that the risk-sensitive fiscal authority lowers government spending and income taxation, reducing the disincentive to accumulate wealth that households face.

In this paper, I explore the dynamics of real estate market fluctuations and business cycle co-movements in a neoclassical setting. Applying a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of collateral constraints with asset reallocation to Japan, I find that public policy shocks account well for the business cycle dynamics. In particular, taxes on land holdings of households mimic the impact of a housing preference shock, and if volatile enough, can trigger large asset price fluctuations. However, in the absence of volatility, the impact on prices is intrinsically linked to the persistence of shocks. Dependence on fixed assets such as real estate to secure collateral-based financing significantly amplifies the effect of initial shocks on the real macro aggregates. The financial accelerator works through the “redistribution channel,” shifting a large fraction of the collateral between constrained and unconstrained agents in response to an external stimuli.

By means of an endogenous growth model of directed technical change with vertical and horizontal R&D, we study a transitional-dynamics mechanism that is consistent with the changes in the shares of the high- versus the low-tech sectors found in recent European data. Under the hypothesis of a positive shock in the proportion of high-skilled labor, the technological-knowledge bias channel leads to unbalanced sectoral growth with a noticeable shift of resources across sectors. A calibration exercise suggests that the model is able to account for up to from 50 to about 100 percent of the increase in the share of the high-tech sector observed in the data from 1995 to 2007. However, the model predicts that the dynamics of the share of the high-tech sector has no significant impact on the dynamics of the economic growth rate.

We investigate whether recoveries following normal recessions differ from recoveries following recessions that are associated with either banking crises or housing crises. Using a parametric panel framework that allows for a bounce-back in the level of output during the recovery, we find that normal recessions are followed by strong recoveries in advanced economies. This bounce-back is absent following recessions associated with banking crises and housing crises. Consequently, the permanent output losses of recessions associated with banking crises and housing crises are considerably larger than those of normal recessions.

We consider a model of economic growth with altruistic agents who care about their consumption and the disposable income of their offspring. The agents' consumption and the offspring's disposable income are subject to positional concerns. We show that, if the measure of consumption-related positional concerns is sufficiently low and/or the measure of offspring-related positional concerns is sufficiently high, then there is a unique steady-state equilibrium, which is characterized by perfect income and wealth equality, and all intertemporal equilibira converge to it. Otherwise, in steady-state equilibria, the population splits into two classes, the rich and the poor; under this scenario, in any intertemporal equilibrium, all capital is eventually owned by the households that were the wealthiest from the outset and all other households become poor.