Observational studies have found associations between smoking and both poorer cognitive ability and lower educational attainment; however, evaluating causality is challenging. We used two complementary methods to explore this.

We conducted observational analyses of up to 12 004 participants in a cohort study (Study One) and Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses using summary and cohort data (Study Two). Outcome measures were cognitive ability at age 15 and educational attainment at age 16 (Study One), and educational attainment and fluid intelligence (Study Two).

Study One: heaviness of smoking at age 15 was associated with lower cognitive ability at age 15 and lower educational attainment at age 16. Adjustment for potential confounders partially attenuated findings (e.g. fully adjusted cognitive ability β −0.736, 95% CI −1.238 to −0.233, p = 0.004; fully adjusted educational attainment β −1.254, 95% CI −1.597 to −0.911, p < 0.001). Study Two: MR indicated that both smoking initiation and lifetime smoking predict lower educational attainment (e.g. smoking initiation to educational attainment inverse-variance weighted MR β −0.197, 95% CI −0.223 to −0.171, p = 1.78 × 10−49). Educational attainment results were robust to sensitivity analyses, while analyses of general cognitive ability were less so.

We find some evidence of a causal effect of smoking on lower educational attainment, but not cognitive ability. Triangulation of evidence across observational and MR methods is a strength, but the genetic variants associated with smoking initiation may be pleiotropic, suggesting caution in interpreting these results. The nature of this pleiotropy warrants further study.

A major obstacle in understanding and treating posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is its clinical and neurobiological heterogeneity. To address this barrier, the field has become increasingly interested in identifying subtypes of PTSD based on dysfunction in neural networks alongside cognitive impairments that may underlie the development and maintenance of symptoms. The current study aimed to determine if subtypes of PTSD, based on normative-based cognitive dysfunction across multiple domains, have unique neural network signatures.

In a sample of 271 veterans (90% male) that completed both neuropsychological testing and resting-state fMRI, two complementary, whole-brain functional connectivity analyses explored the link between brain functioning, PTSD symptoms, and cognition.

At the network level, PTSD symptom severity was associated with reduced negative coupling between the limbic network (LN) and frontal-parietal control network (FPCN), driven specifically by the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and amygdala Hubs of Dysfunction. Further, this relationship was uniquely moderated by executive function (EF). Specifically, those with PTSD and impaired EF had the strongest marker of LN-FPCN dysregulation, while those with above-average EF did not exhibit PTSD-related dysregulation of these networks.

These results suggest that poor executive functioning, alongside LN-FPCN dysregulation, may represent a neurocognitive subtype of PTSD.

Cigarette smoking is associated with worse cognition and decreased cortical volume and thickness in healthy cohorts. Chronic cigarette smoking is prevalent in schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD), but the effects of smoking status on the brain and cognition in SSD are not clear. This study aimed to understand whether cognitive performance and brain morphology differed between smoking and non-smoking individuals with SSD compared to healthy controls.

Data were obtained from the Australian Schizophrenia Research Bank. Cognitive functioning was measured in 299 controls and 455 SSD patients. Cortical volume, thickness and surface area data were analysed from T1-weighted structural scans obtained in a subset of the sample (n = 82 controls, n = 201 SSD). Associations between smoking status (cigarette smoker/non-smoker), cognition and brain morphology were tested using analyses of covariance, including diagnosis as a moderator.

No smoking by diagnosis interactions were evident, and no significant differences were revealed between smokers and non-smokers across any of the variables measured, with the exception of a significantly thinner left posterior cingulate in smokers compared to non-smokers. Several main effects of smoking in the cognitive, volume and thickness analyses were initially significant but did not survive false discovery rate (FDR) correction.

Despite the general absence of significant FDR-corrected findings, trend-level effects suggest the possibility that subtle smoking-related effects exist but were not uncovered due to low statistical power. An investigation of this topic is encouraged to confirm and expand on our findings.

Symptoms of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and trait impulsivity have been associated with disordered eating but are seldom assessed in community studies, or longitudinally and little is known about the mediating mechanisms.

We tested associations between ADHD symptoms and disordered eating cross-sectionally and between trait impulsivity and disordered eating longitudinally. We utilised data from a normative cohort of young adults (642 participants: 65% female, Mage = 23 years). Participants were classified as high risk or low risk for disordered eating using the SCOFF instrument. In the first two steps of both cross-sectional and longitudinal hierarchical logistic regression models, demographics and covariates were entered. For the cross-sectional regression, Adult ADHD self-report scale (ASRS) scores, separated into inattentive and hyperactive/impulsive symptoms, were entered in the third step. In a separate longitudinal model, Barratt impulsivity scale subscales (attentional, motor and non-planning impulsivity) were entered in the third step. Depression, as assessed by the moods and feelings questionnaire (MFQ), was examined as a mediator.

Cross-sectionally, sex, MFQ score and inattentive symptoms predicted disordered eating risk (model R2 = 20%). Longitudinally, sex, MFQ score and attentional impulsivity predicted disordered eating risk (model R2 = 16%). The relationship between inattentive symptoms and the disordered eating risk was partially mediated by MFQ score, whereas the relationship between attentional impulsivity and the disordered eating risk was fully mediated by MFQ scores.

These data highlight (1) a specific role for inattentive symptoms of ADHD and (2) the importance of both depression and impulsivity in predicting eating disorder risk.

Cohort studies of the long-term outcome of anxiety, depression and personality status rarely join together.

Two hundred and ten patients recruited with anxiety and depression to a randomised controlled trial between 1983 and 1987 (Nottingham Study of Neurotic Disorder) were followed up over 30 years. At trial entry personality status was assessed, together with the general neurotic syndrome, a combined diagnosis of mixed anxiety–depression (cothymia) linked to neurotic personality traits. Personality assessment used a procedure allowing conversion of data to the ICD-11 severity classification of personality disorder. After the original trial, seven further assessments were made. Observer and self-ratings of psychopathology and global outcome were also made. The primary outcome at 30 years was the proportion of those with no Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) diagnosis.

Data were analysed using multilevel repeated measures models that adjusted for age and gender. Missing data were assumed to be missing at random, and the models allowed all subjects to be included in the analysis with missing data automatically handled in the model estimation.

At 30 years, 69% of those with a baseline diagnosis of panic disorder had no DSM diagnosis compared to 37–47% of those with generalised anxiety disorder, dysthymia or mixed symptoms (cothymia) (p = 0.027). Apart from those with no personality dysfunction at entry all patients had worse outcomes after 30 years with regard to total psychopathology, anxiety and depression, social function and global outcome.

The long-term outcome of disorders formerly called ‘neurotic’ is poor with the exception of panic disorder. Personality dysfunction accentuates poor recovery.

Freeman et al. (2020a, Psychological Medicine, 21, 1–13) argue that there is widespread support for coronavirus conspiracy theories in England. We hypothesise that their estimates of prevalence are inflated due to a flawed research design. When asking respondents to their survey to agree or disagree with pro-conspiracy statements, they used a biased set of response options: four agree options and only one disagree option (and no ‘don't know’ option). We also hypothesise that due to these flawed measures, the Freeman et al. approach under-estimates the strength of the correlation between conspiracy beliefs and compliance. Finally, we hypothesise that, due to reliance on bivariate correlations, Freeman et al. over-estimate the causal connection between conspiracy beliefs and compliance.

In a pre-registered study, we conduct an experiment embedded in a survey of a representative sample of 2057 adults in England (fieldwork: 16−19 July 2020).

Measured using our advocated ‘best practice’ approach (balanced response options, with a don't know option), prevalence of support for coronavirus conspiracies is only around five-eighths (62.3%) of that indicated by the Freeman et al. approach. We report mixed results on our correlation and causation hypotheses.

To avoid over-estimating prevalence of support for coronavirus conspiracies, we advocate using a balanced rather than imbalanced set of response options, and including a don't know option.

Self-harm thoughts and behaviours (SHTBs) are a serious public health concern in young people. Emerging research suggests that pain may be an important correlate of SHTBs in young people. However, it remains unclear whether this association is driven by the shared association with other correlates of SHTBs. This study used network analysis to delineate the relationship between SHTBs, pain and other correlates of SHTBs in a population-based sample of young people.

We performed secondary analyses, using data from 7977 young people aged 5–16 years who participated in the British Child and Adolescent Mental Health Survey in 2004. We used χ2 tests and network analysis to examine the complex interplay between SHTBs, pain and other correlates of SHTBs, including psychiatric disorders, childhood trauma, stressful life events, parental distress, family dysfunction, peer problems and inhibitory control deficits.

Pain was associated with a doubled risk of SHTBs, and likewise, SHTBs were associated with a doubled risk of pain. Furthermore, network analysis showed that although pain was significantly associated with all measured correlates of SHTBs, except family dysfunction, pain was most strongly associated with SHTBs, after accounting for these measured correlates.

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to utilise network analysis to provide novel insights into the complex relationship between SHTBs, pain and other known correlates of SHTBs in young people. Results suggest that pain is an independent correlate of SHTBs. Future research should aim to identify underlying mechanisms.

South Africa's national lockdown introduced serious threats to public mental health in a society where one in three individuals develops a psychiatric disorder during their life. We aimed to evaluate the mental health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic using a mixed-methods design.

This longitudinal study drew from a preexisting sample of 957 adults living in Soweto, a major township near Johannesburg. Psychological assessments were administered across two waves between August 2019 and March 2020 and during the first 6 weeks of the lockdown (late March–early May 2020). Interviews on COVID-19 experiences were administered in the second wave. Multiple regression models examined relationships between perceived COVID-19 risk and depression.

Full data on perceived COVID-19 risk, depression, and covariates were available in 221 adults. In total, 14.5% of adults were at risk for depression. Higher perceived COVID-19 risk predicted greater depressive symptoms (p < 0.001), particularly among adults with histories of childhood trauma, though this effect was marginally significant (p = 0.063). Adults were about two times more likely to experience significant depressive symptoms for every one unit increase in perceived COVID-19 risk (p = 0.021; 95% CI 1.10–3.39). Qualitative data identified potent experiences of anxiety, financial insecurity, fear of infection, and rumination.

Higher perceived risk of COVID-19 infection is associated with greater depressive symptoms during the first 6 weeks of quarantine. High rates of severe mental illness and low availability of mental healthcare amidst COVID-19 emphasize the need for immediate and accessible psychological resources.

Over the past two decades, early detection and early intervention in psychosis have become essential goals of psychiatry. However, clinical impressions are insufficient for predicting psychosis outcomes in clinical high-risk (CHR) individuals; a more rigorous and objective model is needed. This study aims to develop and internally validate a model for predicting the transition to psychosis within 10 years.

Two hundred and eight help-seeking individuals who fulfilled the CHR criteria were enrolled from the prospective, naturalistic cohort program for CHR at the Seoul Youth Clinic (SYC). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-penalized Cox regression was used to develop a predictive model for a psychotic transition. We performed k-means clustering and survival analysis to stratify the risk of psychosis.

The predictive model, which includes clinical and cognitive variables, identified the following six baseline variables as important predictors: 1-year percentage decrease in the Global Assessment of Functioning score, IQ, California Verbal Learning Test score, Strange Stories test score, and scores in two domains of the Social Functioning Scale. The predictive model showed a cross-validated Harrell's C-index of 0.78 and identified three subclusters with significantly different risk levels.

Overall, our predictive model showed a predictive ability and could facilitate a personalized therapeutic approach to different risks in high-risk individuals.

It remains unclear to what extent reduced nutritional intake in anorexia nervosa (AN) is a consequence of a reduced motivational response to food. Although self-reports typically suggest AN patients have a reduced appetitive response, behavioral and neurophysiological measures have revealed evidence for both increased and reduced attentional biases towards food stimuli. The mechanisms influencing food perception in AN, might be clarified using time-sensitive magnetoencephalography (MEG) to differentiate the early (more automatic processing) stages from the late (more controlled) stages.

MEG was recorded in 22 partially weight-restored adolescent AN patients and 29 age- and gender-matched healthy control (HC) participants during a rapid serial visual presentation paradigm using 100 high-calorie food, 100 low-calorie food, and 100 non-food pictures. Neural sources of event-related fields were estimated using the L2-Minimum-Norm method and analyzed in early (50–300 ms) and late (350–500 ms) time intervals.

AN patients rated high-calorie food as less palatable and reported overall less food craving than HC participants. Nevertheless, in response to food pictures AN patients showed relative increased neural activity in the left occipito-temporal and inferior frontal regions in the early time interval. No group differences occurred in the late time interval.

MEG results speak against an overall reduced motivational response to food in AN. Instead, relative increased early food processing in the visual cortex suggests greater motivated attention. A greater appetitive response to food might be an adaptive mechanism in a state of undernourishment. Yet, this relative increased food processing in AN was no longer present later, arguably reflecting rapid downregulation.

Varied longitudinal courses of suicidal ideation (SI) may be linked to unique sets of risk and protective factors.

A national probability sample of 2291 U.S. veterans was followed over four assessments spanning 7 years to examine how a broad range of baseline risk and protective factors predict varying courses of SI.

Most veterans (82.6%) denied SI at baseline and all follow-ups, while 8.7% had new onset SI, 5.4% chronic SI, and 3.3% remitted SI. Compared to the no-SI group, chronic SI was associated with childhood trauma, baseline major depressive and/or posttraumatic stress disorder (MDD/PTSD), physical health difficulties, and recent traumatic stressors. Remitted veterans had the highest risk of a prior suicide attempt (SA) compared to no-SI [relative risk ratio (RRR) = 3.31] and chronic SI groups (RRR = 4.65); and high rates of MDD/PTSD (RRR = 7.62). New onset SI was associated with recent stressors and physical health difficulties. All symptomatic SI groups reported decrements in protective factors, specifically, social connectedness, trait curiosity/exploration, and purpose in life.

Nearly one-in-five veterans reported SI over a 7-year period, most of whom evidenced new onset or remitted SI courses. Chronic and remitted SI may represent particularly high-risk SI courses; the former was associated with higher rates of prospective SA, and psychiatric and physical distress, and the latter with increased likelihood of prior SA, and isolation from social and mental health supports. Physical disability, MDD/PTSD, and recent stressors may be important precipitating or maintaining factors of SI, while social connectedness may be a key target for suicide prevention efforts.

The clinical course of psychotic disorders is highly variable. Typically, researchers have captured different course types using broad pre-defined categories. However, whether these adequately capture symptom trajectories of psychotic disorders has not been fully assessed. Using data from AESOP-10, we sought to identify classes of individuals with specific symptom trajectories over a 10-year follow-up using a data-driven approach.

AESOP-10 is a follow-up, at 10 years, of 532 incident cases with a first episode of psychosis initially identified in south-east London and Nottingham, UK. Using extensive information on fluctuations in the presence of psychotic symptoms, we fitted growth mixture models to identify latent trajectory classes that accounted for heterogeneity in the patterns of change in psychotic symptoms over time.

We had sufficient data on psychotic symptoms during the follow-up on 326 incident patients. A four-class quadratic growth mixture model identified four trajectories of psychotic symptoms: (1) remitting-improving (58.5%); (2) late decline (5.6%); (3) late improvement (5.4%); (4) persistent (30.6%). A persistent trajectory, compared with remitting-improving, was associated with gender (more men), black Caribbean ethnicity, low baseline education and high disadvantage, low premorbid IQ, a baseline diagnosis of non-affective psychosis and long DUP. Numbers were small, but there were indications that those with a late decline trajectory more closely resembled those with a persistent trajectory.

Our current approach to categorising the course of psychotic disorders may misclassify patients. This may confound efforts to elucidate the predictors of long-term course and related biomarkers.

Our aim was to estimate provisional willingness to receive a coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine, identify predictive socio-demographic factors, and, principally, determine potential causes in order to guide information provision.

A non-probability online survey was conducted (24th September−17th October 2020) with 5,114 UK adults, quota sampled to match the population for age, gender, ethnicity, income, and region. The Oxford COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy scale assessed intent to take an approved vaccine. Structural equation modelling estimated explanatory factor relationships.

71.7% (n=3,667) were willing to be vaccinated, 16.6% (n=849) were very unsure, and 11.7% (n=598) were strongly hesitant. An excellent model fit (RMSEA=0.05/CFI=0.97/TLI=0.97), explaining 86% of variance in hesitancy, was provided by beliefs about the collective importance, efficacy, side-effects, and speed of development of a COVID-19 vaccine. A second model, with reasonable fit (RMSEA=0.03/CFI=0.93/TLI=0.92), explaining 32% of variance, highlighted two higher-order explanatory factors: ‘excessive mistrust’ (r=0.51), including conspiracy beliefs, negative views of doctors, and need for chaos, and ‘positive healthcare experiences’ (r=−0.48), including supportive doctor interactions and good NHS care. Hesitancy was associated with younger age, female gender, lower income, and ethnicity, but socio-demographic information explained little variance (9.8%). Hesitancy was associated with lower adherence to social distancing guidelines.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy is relatively evenly spread across the population. Willingness to take a vaccine is closely bound to recognition of the collective importance. Vaccine public information that highlights prosocial benefits may be especially effective. Factors such as conspiracy beliefs that foster mistrust and erode social cohesion will lower vaccine up-take.

This study aimed to explore the impacts of COVID-19 outbreak on mental health status in general population in different affected areas in China.

This was a comparative study including two groups of participants: (1) general population in an online survey in Ya'an and Jingzhou cities during the COVID-19 outbreak from 10–20 February 2020; and (2) matching general population selected from the mental health survey in Ya'an in 2019 (from January to May 2019). General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12), Self-rating Anxiety Scale (SAS), and Self-rating Depression Scale (SDS) were used.

There were 1775 participants (Ya'an in 2019 and 2020: 537 respectively; Jingzhou in 2020: 701). Participants in Ya'an had a significantly higher rate of general health problems (GHQ scores ⩾3) in 2020 (14.7%) than in 2019 (5.2%) (p < 0.001). Compared with Ya'an (8.0%), participants in Jingzhou in 2020 had a significantly higher rate of anxiety (SAS scores ⩾50, 24.1%) (p < 0.001). Participants in Ya'an in 2020 had a significantly higher rate of depression (SDS scores ⩾53, 55.3%) than in Jingzhou (16.3%) (p < 0.001). The risk factors of anxiety symptoms included female, number of family members (⩾6 persons), and frequent outdoor activities. The risk factors of depression symptoms included participants in Ya'an and uptake self-protective measures.

The prevalence of psychological symptoms has increased sharply in general population during the COVID-19 outbreak. People in COVID-19 severely affected areas may have higher scores of GHQ and anxiety symptoms. Culture-specific and individual-based psychosocial interventions should be developed for those in need during the COVID-19 outbreak.