Previous studies have provided initial evidence that people at risk for psychosis (PR) suffer from stigma and discrimination related to their condition. However, no study has systematically reviewed stigma and discrimination associated with being at PR and the potential underlying mechanisms.

This work aimed to systematically review all studies addressing stigma and discrimination in PR people in order to assess: (1) the occurrence of this phenomenon and its different components (public, internalized, perceived, and labeling-related), (2) whether stigma affects outcomes of the PR state, and (3) whether other factors modulate stigma among PR individuals.

The reviewed studies (n = 38) widely differ in their design, methodological quality, and populations under investigation, thus limiting direct comparison of findings. However, converging evidence suggests that the general public endorses stigmatizing attitudes towards PR individuals, and that this is more frequent in people with a low educational level or with no direct experience of the PR state. PR individuals experience more internalized stigma and perceive more discrimination than healthy subjects or patients with non-psychotic disorders. Further, PR labeling is equally associated with both positive (e.g. validation and relief) and negative effects (e.g. status loss and discrimination). Moreover, stigma increases the likelihood of poor outcome, transition to full-psychosis, disengagement from services, and family stigma among PR individuals. Finally, very limited evidence awaiting replication supports the efficacy of cognitive therapies in mitigating the negative effects of stigma.

Evidence confirms previous concerns about stigma and its negative consequences for PR individuals, thus having important public health implications.

Problems with impulsive aggression occur in many forms of psychiatric dysfunction, and are a common complaint among combat veterans. The present study sought to examine the neuroanatomical correlates of combat-related impulsive aggression.

T1-weighted magnetic resonance images were acquired from 29 male veterans with impulsive aggression and 30 non-aggressive combat controls. Subcortical volumetry was conducted with the amygdala and hippocampus and their main constituent subdivisions as regions-of-interest (ROIs) (basolateral, centromedial amygdala; head, body, tail of hippocampus). Cortical thickness measurements were extracted for the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, orbitofrontal cortex, and anterior cingulate cortex. Within-group correlations with psychometric measures were also explored.

No significant group differences in cortical thickness or subcortical grey matter volumes were observed for any of the ROIs. Also, no significant correlations with any of the psychometric measures were recorded. Exploratory whole-brain analysis of cortical thickness revealed a significant group × anxiety interaction effect in a cluster located in the left lingual gyrus.

The current findings indicate that problems with impulsive aggression may not be directly associated with alterations in cortical thickness or amygdalar/hippocampal (sub)volumes. The observed interplay between impulsive aggression problems and anxiety-related symptoms is consistent with prior work showing the two phenomena may share the same underlying (neural) mechanisms.

Recent work suggests that antihypertensive medications may be useful as repurposed treatments for mood disorders. Using large-scale linked healthcare data we investigated whether certain classes of antihypertensive, such as angiotensin antagonists (AAs) and calcium channel blockers, were associated with reduced risk of new-onset major depressive disorder (MDD) or bipolar disorder (BD).

Two cohorts of patients treated with antihypertensives were identified from Scottish prescribing (2009–2016) and hospital admission (1981–2016) records. Eligibility for cohort membership was determined by a receipt of a minimum of four prescriptions for antihypertensives within a 12-month window. One treatment cohort (n = 538 730) included patients with no previous history of mood disorder, whereas the other (n = 262 278) included those who did. Both cohorts were matched by age, sex and area deprivation to untreated comparators. Associations between antihypertensive treatment and new-onset MDD or bipolar episodes were investigated using Cox regression.

For patients without a history of mood disorder, antihypertensives were associated with increased risk of new-onset MDD. For AA monotherapy, the hazard ratio (HR) for new-onset MDD was 1.17 (95% CI 1.04–1.31). Beta blockers' association was stronger (HR 2.68; 95% CI 2.45–2.92), possibly indicating pre-existing anxiety. Some classes of antihypertensive were associated with protection against BD, particularly AAs (HR 0.46; 95% CI 0.30–0.70). For patients with a past history of mood disorders, all classes of antihypertensives were associated with increased risk of future episodes of MDD.

There was no evidence that antihypertensive medications prevented new episodes of MDD but AAs may represent a novel treatment avenue for BD.

Self-administered questionnaires are widely used in primary care and other clinical settings to assess the severity of depressive symptoms and monitor treatment outcomes. Qualitative studies have found that changes in questionnaire scores might not fully capture patients' experience of changes in their mood but there are no quantitative studies of this issue. We examined the extent to which changes in scores from depression questionnaires disagreed with primary care patients' perceptions of changes in their mood and investigated factors influencing this relationship.

Prospective cohort study assessing patients on four occasions, 2 weeks apart. Patients (N = 554) were recruited from primary care surgeries in three UK sites (Bristol, Liverpool and York) and had reported depressive symptoms or low mood in the past year [68% female, mean age 48.3 (s.d. 12.6)]. Main outcome measures were changes in scores on patient health questionnaire (PHQ-9) and beck depression inventory (BDI-II) and the patients' own ratings of change.

There was marked disagreement between clinically important changes in questionnaire scores and patient-rated change, with disagreement of 51% (95% CI 46–55%) on PHQ-9 and 55% (95% CI 51–60%) on BDI-II. Patients with more severe anxiety were less likely, and those with better mental and physical health-related quality of life were more likely, to report feeling better, having controlled for depression scores.

Our results illustrate the limitations of self-reported depression scales to assess clinical change. Clinicians should be cautious in interpreting changes in questionnaire scores without further clinical assessment.

Late-life depression (LLD) is associated with poor social functioning. However, previous research uses bias-prone self-report scales to measure social functioning and a more objective measure is lacking. We tested a novel wearable device to measure speech that participants encounter as an indicator of social interaction.

Twenty nine participants with LLD and 29 age-matched controls wore a wrist-worn device continuously for seven days, which recorded their acoustic environment. Acoustic data were automatically analysed using deep learning models that had been developed and validated on an independent speech dataset. Total speech activity and the proportion of speech produced by the device wearer were both detected whilst maintaining participants' privacy. Participants underwent a neuropsychological test battery and clinical and self-report scales to measure severity of depression, general and social functioning.

Compared to controls, participants with LLD showed poorer self-reported social and general functioning. Total speech activity was much lower for participants with LLD than controls, with no overlap between groups. The proportion of speech produced by the participants was smaller for LLD than controls. In LLD, both speech measures correlated with attention and psychomotor speed performance but not with depression severity or self-reported social functioning.

Using this device, LLD was associated with lower levels of speech than controls and speech activity was related to psychomotor retardation. We have demonstrated that speech activity measured by wearable technology differentiated LLD from controls with high precision and, in this study, provided an objective measure of an aspect of real-world social functioning in LLD.

An adaptive neural stress response is essential to adequately cope with a changing environment. It was previously argued that sympathetic/noradrenergic activity during acute stress increases salience network (SN) connectivity and reduces executive control network (ECN) connectivity in healthy controls, with opposing effects in the late aftermath of stress. Altered temporal dynamics of these networks in response to stress are thought to play a role in the development of psychopathology in vulnerable individuals.

We exposed male healthy controls (n = 40, mean age = 33.9) and unaffected siblings of schizophrenia patients (n = 39, mean age = 33.2) to the stress or control condition of the trier social stress test and subsequently investigated resting state functional connectivity of the SN and ECN directly after and 1.5 h after stress.

Acute stress resulted in increased functional connectivity within the SN in healthy controls, but not in siblings (group × stress interaction pfwe < 0.05). In the late aftermath of stress, stress reduced functional connectivity within the SN in both groups. Moreover, we found increased functional connectivity between the ECN and the cerebellum in the aftermath of stress in both healthy controls and siblings of schizophrenia patients.

The results show profound differences between siblings of schizophrenia patients and controls during acute stress. Siblings lacked the upregulation of neural resources necessary to quickly and adequately cope with a stressor. This points to a reduced dynamic range in the sympathetic response, and may constitute a vulnerability factor for the development of psychopathology in this at-risk group.

Restrictive food intake in anorexia nervosa (AN) has been related to an overactive cognitive control network inhibiting intuitive motivational responses to food stimuli. However, the influence of short-term homeostatic signaling on the neural regulation of cue-induced food craving in AN is still unclear.

Twenty-five women with AN and 25 matched normal-weight women were examined on two occasions after receiving either glucose or water directly into their stomach using a nasogastric tube. Participants were blinded to the type of infusion. An event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging paradigm was used to investigate the effect of intestinal glucose load on neural processing during either simple viewing or distraction from food stimuli.

Neural differences between patients with AN and normal-weight participants were found during the distraction from food stimuli, but not during the viewing condition. When compared to controls, patients with AN displayed increased activation during food distraction in the left parietal lobule/precuneus and fusiform gyrus after water infusion and decreased activation in ventromedial prefrontal and cingulate regions after intestinal glucose load.

Independent of the cephalic phase and the awareness of caloric intake, homeostatic influences trigger disorder-specific reactions in AN. Food distraction in patients with AN is associated with either excessive higher-order cognitive control during physiological hunger or decreased internally directed attention after intestinal glucose load. These findings suggest that food distraction plays an important role in the psychopathology of AN. This study was registered on clinicaltrials.gov with identifier: NCT03075371.

There is a paucity of long-term prospective disaster studies of the psychological sequelae among survivors.

At 1½ and 25 years after the Spitak earthquake, 142 early adolescents from two cities were assessed: Gumri (moderate–severe exposure) and Spitak (very severe exposure). The Gumri group included treated and not-treated subjects, while the Spitak group included not-treated subjects. Instruments included: DSM-III-R PTSD-Reaction Index (PTSD-RI); DSM-5 PTSD-Checklist (PCL); Depression Self-Rating Scale (DSRS); and Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale (CES-D).

(1) Between 1½ and 25 years, PTSD rates and mean scores decreased significantly in the three groups (over 50%). However, at 25 years 9.1–22.4% met DSM-5 PTSD criteria. (2) At 1½ years, the Spitak group had higher PTSD-RI (p < 0.001) and DSRS scores (p < 0.001) compared to the Gumri-not-treated group. At 25 years, the Spitak group that had experienced fewer post-earthquake adversities (p < 0.03), had a greater decrease in PTSD-RI scores (p < 0.02), and lower CES-D scores (p < 0.01). (3) Before treatment, PTSD-RI and DSRS scores did not differ between the Gumri-treated and not-treated groups. At 25-years, the Gumri-treated group showed a greater decrease in PTSD-RI scores (p < 0.03), and lower mean PTSD-RI (p < 0.02), PCL (p < 0.02), and CES-D (p < 0.01) scores. (4) Predictors of PTSD symptom severity at 25-years included: home destruction, treatment, social support, post-earthquake adversities, and chronic medical illnesses.

Post-disaster PTSD and depressive symptoms can persist for decades. Trauma-focused treatment, alleviation of post-disaster adversities, improving the social ecology, and monitoring for chronic medical illnesses are essential components of recovery programs.

To investigate the impacts of depression screening, diagnosis and treatment on major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) in acute coronary syndrome (ACS).

Prospective cohort study including a nested 24-week randomised clinical trial for treating depression was performed with 5–12 years after the index ACS. A total of 1152 patients recently hospitalised with ACS were recruited from 2006 to 2012, and were divided by depression screening and diagnosis at baseline and 24-week treatment allocation into five groups: 651 screening negative (N), 55 screening positive but no depressive disorder (S), 149 depressive disorder randomised to escitalopram (E), 151 depressive disorder randomised to placebo (P) and 146 depressive disorder receiving medical treatment only (M).

Cumulative MACE incidences over a median 8.4-year follow-up period were 29.6% in N, 43.6% in S, 40.9% in E, 53.6% in P and 59.6% in M. Compared to N, screening positive was associated with higher incidence of MACE [adjusted hazards ratio 2.15 (95% confidence interval 1.63–2.83)]. No differences were found between screening positive with and without a formal depressive disorder diagnosis. Of those screening positive, E was associated with a lower incidence of MACE than P and M. M had the worst outcomes even compared to P, despite significantly milder depressive symptoms at baseline.

Routine depression screening in patients with recent ACS and subsequent appropriate treatment of depression could improve long-term cardiac outcomes.

Social anxiety disorder (SAD) has been linked to academic underachievement, but previous studies had methodological limitations. We investigated the association between SAD and objective indicators of educational performance, controlling for a number of covariates and unmeasured confounders shared between siblings.

This population-based birth cohort study included 2 238 837 individuals born in Sweden between 1973 and 1997, followed-up until 2013. Within the cohort, 15 755 individuals had a recorded ICD-10 diagnosis of SAD in the Swedish National Patient Register. Logistic regression models tested the association between SAD and educational performance. We also identified 6488 families with full siblings discordant for SAD.

Compared to unexposed individuals, individuals diagnosed with SAD were less likely to pass all subjects in the last year of compulsory education [adjusted odds ratios (aOR) ranging from 0.19 to 0.44] and less likely to be eligible for a vocational or academic programme in upper secondary education [aOR = 0.31 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.30–0.33) and aOR = 0.52 (95% CI 0.50–0.55), respectively], finish upper secondary education [aOR = 0.19 (95% CI 0.19–0.20)], start a university degree [aOR = 0.47 (95% CI 0.45–0.49)], obtain a university degree [aOR = 0.35 (95% CI 0.33–0.37)], and finish postgraduate education [aOR = 0.58 (95% CI 0.43–0.80)]. Results were attenuated but remained statistically significant in adjusted sibling comparison models. When psychiatric comorbidities were taken into account, the results were largely unchanged.

Treatment-seeking individuals with SAD have substantially impaired academic performance throughout the formative years. Early detection and intervention are warranted to minimise the long-term socioeconomic impact of the disorder.

Lesbian, bisexual, or gay individuals (LBGs) have an increased risk for mental health problems compared to heterosexuals, but this association has sparsely been investigated for psychotic disorders. The aim of this study was: (1) to examine whether LBG sexual orientation is more prevalent in individuals with a non-affective psychotic disorder (NAPD) than in people without a psychotic disorder; and if so, (2) to explore possible mediating pathways.

Sexual orientation was assessed in the 6-year follow-up assessment of the Dutch Genetic Risk and Outcome of Psychosis study (GROUP), a case–control study with 1547 participants (582 patients with psychotic disorder, 604 siblings, and 361 controls). Binary logistic regression analyses were used to calculate the risk of patients with a psychotic disorder being LBG, compared to siblings and controls. Perceived discrimination, history of bullying, childhood trauma (CT), and sexual identity disclosure were investigated as potential mediating variables.

The proportion of individuals with LBG orientation was 6.8% in patients (n = 40), 4.3% in siblings (n = 26), and 2.5% in controls (n = 10). The age- and gender-adjusted odds ratio of LBG for patients was 1.57 (95% CI 1.08–2.27; p = 0.019), compared to siblings and controls. Discrimination, bullying, and CT all partially mediated this association.

Adverse social experiences related to sexual minority status may increase the risk for NAPD. Sexual identity, behavior, and difficulties need more attention in everyday clinical practice.

Despite a reported high rate of mental disorders in refugees, scientific knowledge on their risk of suicide attempt and suicide is scarce. We aimed to investigate (1) the risk of suicide attempt and suicide in refugees in Sweden, according to their country of birth, compared with Swedish-born individuals and (2) to what extent time period effects, socio-demographics, labour market marginalisation (LMM) and morbidity explain these associations.

Three cohorts comprising the entire population of Sweden, 16–64 years at 31 December 1999, 2004 and 2009 (around 5 million each, of which 3.3–5.0% refugees), were followed for 4 years each through register linkage. Additionally, the 2004 cohort was followed for 9 years, to allow analyses by refugees' country of birth. Crude and multivariate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed. The multivariate models were adjusted for socio-demographic, LMM and morbidity factors.

In multivariate analyses, HRs regarding suicide attempt and suicide in refugees, compared with Swedish-born, ranged from 0.38–1.25 and 0.16–1.20 according to country of birth, respectively. Results were either non-significant or showed lower risks for refugees. Exceptions were refugees from Iran (HR 1.25; 95% CI 1.14–1.41) for suicide attempt. The risk for suicide attempt in refugees compared with the Swedish-born diminished slightly across time periods.

Refugees seem to be protected from suicide attempt and suicide relative to Swedish-born, which calls for more studies to disentangle underlying risk and protective factors.

Neuroanatomical abnormalities in first-episode psychosis (FEP) tend to be subtle and widespread. The vast majority of previous studies have used small samples, and therefore may have been underpowered. In addition, most studies have examined participants at a single research site, and therefore the results may be specific to the local sample investigated. Consequently, the findings reported in the existing literature are highly heterogeneous. This study aimed to overcome these issues by testing for neuroanatomical abnormalities in individuals with FEP that are expressed consistently across several independent samples.

Structural Magnetic Resonance Imaging data were acquired from a total of 572 FEP and 502 age and gender comparable healthy controls at five sites. Voxel-based morphometry was used to investigate differences in grey matter volume (GMV) between the two groups. Statistical inferences were made at p < 0.05 after family-wise error correction for multiple comparisons.

FEP showed a widespread pattern of decreased GMV in fronto-temporal, insular and occipital regions bilaterally; these decreases were not dependent on anti-psychotic medication. The region with the most pronounced decrease – gyrus rectus – was negatively correlated with the severity of positive and negative symptoms.

This study identified a consistent pattern of fronto-temporal, insular and occipital abnormalities in five independent FEP samples; furthermore, the extent of these alterations is dependent on the severity of symptoms and duration of illness. This provides evidence for reliable neuroanatomical alternations in FEP, expressed above and beyond site-related differences in anti-psychotic medication, scanning parameters and recruitment criteria.

Accumulating evidence suggests that many psychiatric disorders etiologically represent the extreme end of dimensionally distributed features rather than distinct entities. The extent to which this applies to eating disorders (EDs) is unknown.

We investigated if there is similar etiology in (a) the continuous distribution of the Eating Disorder Inventory-2 (EDI-2), (b) the extremes of EDI-2 score, and (c) registered ED diagnoses, in 1481 female twin pairs at age 18 years (born 1992–1999). EDI-2 scores were self-reported at age 18. ED diagnoses were identified through the Swedish National Patient Register, parent-reported treatment and/or self-reported purging behavior of a frequency and duration consistent with DSM-IV criteria. We differentiated between anorexia nervosa (AN) and other EDs.

The heritability of the EDI-2 score was 0.65 (95% CI 0.61–0.68). The group heritabilities in DeFries–Fulker extremes analyses were consistent over different percentile-based extreme groups [0.59 (95% CI 0.37–0.81) to 0.65 (95% CI 0.55–0.75)]. Similarly, the heritabilities in liability threshold models were consistent over different levels of severity. In joint categorical-continuous models, the twin-based genetic correlation was 0.52 (95% CI 0.39–0.65) between EDI-2 score and diagnoses of other EDs, and 0.26 (95% CI 0.08–0.42) between EDI-2 score and diagnoses of AN. The non-shared environmental correlations were 0.52 (95% CI 0.32–0.70) and 0.60 (95% CI 0.38–0.79), respectively.

Our findings suggest that some EDs can partly be conceptualized as the extreme manifestation of continuously distributed ED features. AN, however, might be more distinctly genetically demarcated from ED features in the general population than other EDs.

Several studies have reported diminished learning from non-social outcomes in depressed individuals. However, it is not clear how depression impacts learning from social feedback. Notably, mood disorders are commonly associated with deficits in social functioning, which raises the possibility that potential impairments in social learning may negatively affect real-life social experiences in depressed subjects.

Ninety-two participants with high (HD; N = 40) and low (LD; N = 52) depression scores were recruited. Subjects performed a learning task, during which they received monetary outcomes or social feedback which they were told came from other people. Additionally, participants answered questions about their everyday social experiences. Computational models were fit to the data and model parameters were related to social experience measures.

HD subjects reported a reduced quality and quantity of social experiences compared to LD controls, including an increase in the amount of time spent in negative social situations. Moreover, HD participants showed lower learning rates than LD subjects in the social condition of the task. Interestingly, across all participants, reduced social learning rates predicted higher amounts of time spent in negative social situations, even when depression scores were controlled for.

These findings indicate that deficits in social learning may affect the quality of everyday social experiences. Specifically, the impaired ability to use social feedback to appropriately update future actions, which was observed in HD subjects, may lead to suboptimal interpersonal behavior in real life. This, in turn, may evoke negative feedback from others, thus bringing about more unpleasant social encounters.

Transcutaneous vagus nerve stimulation (tVNS) is a promising therapeutic option for major depressive disorder (MDD) in adults. Alternative third-line treatments for MDD in adolescents are scarce. Here we aimed to assess the effects of acute tVNS on emotion recognition in adolescents with MDD.

Adolescents (14–17 years) with MDD (n = 33) and non-depressed controls (n = 30) received tVNS or sham-stimulation in a cross-sectional, case–control, within-subject cross-randomized controlled trial, while performing different tasks assessing emotion recognition. Correct responses, response times, and errors of omission and commission on three different computerized emotion recognition tasks were assessed as main outcomes. Simultaneous recordings of electrocardiography and electro dermal activity, as well as sampling of saliva for the determination of α-amylase, were used to quantify the effects on autonomic nervous system function.

tVNS had no effect on the recognition of gradually or static expressed emotions but altered response inhibition on the emotional Go/NoGo-task. Specifically, tVNS increased the likelihood of omitting a response toward sad target-stimuli in adolescents with MDD, while decreasing errors (independent of the target emotion) in controls. Effects of acute tVNS on autonomic nervous system function were found in non-depressed controls only.

Acute tVNS alters the recognition of briefly presented facial expressions of negative valence in adolescents with MDD while generally increasing emotion recognition in controls. tVNS seems to specifically alter early visual processing of stimuli of negative emotional valence in MDD. These findings suggest a potential therapeutic benefit of tVNS in adolescent MDD that requires further evaluation within clinical trials.

An increase in reported psychological distress, particularly among adolescent girls, is observed across a range of countries. Whether a similar trend exists among students in higher education remains unknown. The aim of the current study was to describe trends in self-reported psychological distress among Norwegian college and university students from 2010 to 2018.

We employed data from the Students' Health and Wellbeing Study (SHoT), a nationwide survey for higher education in Norway including full-time students aged 18–34. Numbers of participants (participation rates) were n = 6065 (23%) in 2010, n = 13 663 (29%) in 2014 and n = 49 321 (31%) in 2018. Psychological distress was measured using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25 (HSCL-25).

Overall, a statistically significant increase in self-reported psychological distress was observed over time across gender and age-groups. HSCL-25 scores were markedly higher for women than for men at all time-points. Effect-size of the mean change was also stronger for women (time-by-gender interaction: χ2 = 70.02, df = 2, p < 0.001): in women, mean HSCL-25 score increased from 1.62 in 2010 to 1.82 in 2018, yielding a mean change effect-size of 0.40. The corresponding change in men was from 1.42 in 2010 to 1.53 in 2018, giving an effect-size of 0.26.

Both the level and increase in self-reported psychological distress among Norwegian students in higher education are potentially worrying. Several mechanisms may contribute to the observed trend, including changes in response style and actual increase in distress. The relative low response rates in SHoT warrant caution when interpreting and generalising the findings.

Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a developmental condition that often persists into adulthood with extensive negative consequences on quality of life. Despite emerging evidence indicating the genetic basis of ADHD, investigations into the familial expression of latent neurocognitive traits remain limited.

In a group of adult ADHD probands (n = 20), their unaffected first-degree relatives (n = 20) and typically developing control participants (n = 20), we assessed endophenotypic alterations in the default mode network (DMN) connectivity during resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging in relation to cognitive performance and clinical symptoms. In an external validation step, we also examined the dimensional nature of this neurocognitive trait in a sample of unrelated healthy young adults (n = 100) from the Human Connectome Project (HCP).

The results illustrated reduced anti-correlations between the posterior cingulate cortex/precuneus and right middle frontal gyrus that was shared between adult ADHD probands and their first-degree relatives, but not with healthy controls. The observed connectivity alterations were linked to higher ADHD symptoms that was mediated by performance in a sustained attention task. Moreover, this brain-based neurocognitive trait dimensionally explained ADHD symptom variability in the HCP sample.

Alterations in the default mode connectivity may represent a dimensional endophenotype of ADHD, hence a significant aspect of the neuropathophysiology of this disorder. As such, brain network organisation can potentially be employed as an important neurocognitive trait to enhance statistical power of genetic studies in ADHD and as a surrogate efficacy endpoint in the development of novel pharmaceuticals.

Psychotherapies for depression are equally effective on average, but individual responses vary widely. Outcomes can be improved by optimizing treatment selection using multivariate prediction models. A promising approach is the Personalized Advantage Index (PAI) that predicts the optimal treatment for a given individual and the magnitude of the advantage. The current study aimed to extend the PAI to long-term depression outcomes after acute-phase psychotherapy.

Data come from a randomized trial comparing cognitive therapy (CT, n = 76) and interpersonal psychotherapy (IPT, n = 75) for major depressive disorder (MDD). Primary outcome was depression severity, as assessed by the BDI-II, during 17-month follow-up. First, predictors and moderators were selected from 38 pre-treatment variables using a two-step machine learning approach. Second, predictors and moderators were combined into a final model, from which PAI predictions were computed with cross-validation. Long-term PAI predictions were then compared to actual follow-up outcomes and post-treatment PAI predictions.

One predictor (parental alcohol abuse) and two moderators (recent life events; childhood maltreatment) were identified. Individuals assigned to their PAI-indicated treatment had lower follow-up depression severity compared to those assigned to their PAI-non-indicated treatment. This difference was significant in two subsets of the overall sample: those whose PAI score was in the upper 60%, and those whose PAI indicated CT, irrespective of magnitude. Long-term predictions did not overlap substantially with predictions for acute benefit.

If replicated, long-term PAI predictions could enhance precision medicine by selecting the optimal treatment for a given depressed individual over the long term.