Bipolar disorder (BD) is associated with cognitive and functional difficulties, persistent beyond mood episodes. Cognitive remediation (CR) is a psychological therapy targeting cognitive and functioning difficulties. Recent evidence suggests that CR may enhance long-term functioning but transfer mechanisms on functional outcomes have not been explored. We aim to investigate whether and how cognitive gains after CR transfer to functional improvement.

We considered data from a randomized controlled trial comparing CR (n = 40) to treatment-as-usual (TAU; n = 40) in euthymic people with BD. Treatment outcomes included individual cognitive domains and global cognition, psychosocial functioning, and goal attainment. Regression-based mediation and moderation modelling were used to assess whether and how post-treatment cognitive changes translate into functional improvement at follow-up, three months after treatment end.

Cognitive gains after CR transferred to functional changes three months later: improvement in post-treatment global cognition partially mediated the effect of CR on psychosocial functioning (standardized indirect effect: −0.23, 95% CI −0.51 to −0.04). Goal attainment was not significantly mediated by changes in cognition, but post-treatment cognitive performance moderated the effect of CR on the GAS at follow-up (interaction effect: 0.78, 95% CI 0.08–1.55).

Our findings suggest that cognitive improvements contribute to functional improvement but transfer mechanisms differ between psychosocial functioning and idiosyncratic recovery goals. Cognition accounted for only a proportion of the total CR effect on functional outcomes. Future studies should consider other variables, such as metacognition, that may drive the transfer of CR effects to functional outcomes.

Many studies report an ethnic density effect whereby psychosis incidence among ethnic minority groups is higher in low co-ethnic density areas. It is unclear whether an equivalent density effect applies with other types of socioeconomic disadvantages.

We followed a population cohort of 2 million native Danes comprising all those born on 1st January 1965, or later, living in Denmark on their 15th birthday. Socioeconomic disadvantage, based on parents' circumstances at age 15 (low income, manual occupation, single parent and unemployed), was measured alongside neighbourhood prevalence of these indices.

Each indicator was associated with a higher incidence of non-affective psychosis which remained the same, or was slightly reduced, if neighbourhood levels of disadvantage were lower. For example, for individuals from a low-income background there was no difference in incidence for those living in areas where a low-income was least common [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.01; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93–1.10 v. those in the quintile where a low income was most common. Typically, differences associated with area-level disadvantage were the same whether or not cohort members had a disadvantaged background; for instance, for those from a manual occupation background, incidence was lower in the quintile where this was least v. most common (IRR 0.83; 95% CI 0.71–0.97), as it was for those from a non-manual background (IRR 0.77; 95% CI 0.67–0.87).

We found little evidence for group density effects in contrast to previous ethnic density studies. Further research is needed with equivalent investigations in other countries to see if similar patterns are observed.

Violent criminal offenders with personality disorders (PD's) can cause immense harm, but are often deemed untreatable. This study aimed to conduct a randomized clinical trial to test the effectiveness of long-term psychotherapy for rehabilitating offenders with PDs.

We compared schema therapy (ST), an evidence-based psychotherapy for PDs, to treatment-as-usual (TAU) at eight high-security forensic hospitals in the Netherlands. Patients in both conditions received multiple treatment modalities and differed only in the individual, study-specific therapy they received. One-hundred-three male offenders with antisocial, narcissistic, borderline, or paranoid PDs, or Cluster B PD-not-otherwise-specified, were assigned to 3 years of ST or TAU and assessed every 6 months. Primary outcomes were rehabilitation, involving gradual reintegration into the community, and PD symptoms.

Patients in both conditions showed moderate to large improvements in outcomes. ST was superior to TAU on both primary outcomes – rehabilitation (i.e. attaining supervised and unsupervised leave) and PD symptoms – and six of nine secondary outcomes, with small to moderate advantages over TAU. ST patients moved more rapidly through rehabilitation (supervised leave, treatment*time: F(5308) = 9.40, p < 0.001; unsupervised leave, treatment*time: F(5472) = 3.45, p = 0.004), and showed faster improvements on PD scales (treatment*time: t(1387) = −2.85, p = 0.005).

These findings contradict pessimistic views on the treatability of violent offenders with PDs, and support the effectiveness of long-term psychotherapy for rehabilitating these patients, facilitating their re-entry into the community.

Prenatal loss which occurs in approximately 20% of pregnancies represents a well-established risk factor for anxiety and affective disorders. In the current study, we examined whether a history of prenatal loss is associated with a subsequent pregnancy with maternal psychological state using ecological momentary assessment (EMA)-based measures of pregnancy-specific distress and mood in everyday life.

This study was conducted in a cohort of N = 155 healthy pregnant women, of which N = 40 had a history of prenatal loss. An EMA protocol was used in early and late pregnancy to collect repeated measures of maternal stress and mood, on average eight times per day over a consecutive 4-day period. The association between a history of prenatal loss and psychological state was estimated using linear mixed models.

Compared to women who had not experienced a prior prenatal loss, women with a history of prenatal loss reported higher levels of pregnancy-specific distress in early as well as late pregnancy and also were more nervous and tired. Furthermore, in the comparison group pregnancy-specific distress decreased and mood improved from early to late pregnancy, whereas these changes across pregnancy were not evident in women in the prenatal loss group.

Our findings suggest that prenatal loss in a prior pregnancy is associated with a subsequent pregnancy with significantly higher stress and impaired mood levels in everyday life across gestation. These findings have important implications for designing EMA-based ambulatory, personalized interventions to reduce stress during pregnancy in this high-risk group.

Loneliness is a major risk factor for both psychological disturbance and poor health outcomes in adults. This study aimed to assess whether childhood loneliness is associated with a long-term disruption in mental health that extends into adulthood.

This study is based on the longitudinal, community-representative Great Smoky Mountains Study of 1420 participants. Participants were assessed with the structured Child and Adolescent Psychiatric Assessment interview up to eight times in childhood (ages 9–16; 6674 observations; 1993–2000) for childhood loneliness, associated psychiatric comorbidities and childhood adversities. Participants were followed up four times in adulthood (ages 19, 21, 25, and 30; 4556 observations of 1334 participants; 1999–2015) with the structured Young Adult Psychiatric Assessment Interview for psychiatric anxiety, depression, and substance use outcomes.

Both self and parent-reported childhood loneliness were associated with adult self-reported anxiety and depressive outcomes. The associations remained significant when childhood adversities and psychiatric comorbidities were accounted for. There was no evidence for an association of childhood loneliness with adult substance use disorders. More associations were found between childhood loneliness and adult psychiatric symptoms than with adult diagnostic status.

Childhood loneliness is associated with anxiety and depressive disorders in young adults, suggesting that loneliness – even in childhood – might have long-term costs in terms of mental health. This study underscores the importance of intervening early to prevent loneliness and its sequelae over time.

The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused myriad health, social, and economic stressors. To date, however, no known study has examined changes in mental health during the pandemic in the U.S. military veteran population.

Data were analyzed from the 2019–2020 National Health and Resilience in Veterans Study, a nationally representative, prospective cohort survey of 3078 veterans. Pre-to-peri-pandemic changes in psychiatric symptoms were evaluated, as well as pre-pandemic risk and protective factors and pandemic-related correlates of increased psychiatric distress.

The prevalence of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) positive screens increased from pre- to peri-pandemic (7.1% to 9.4%; p < 0.001) and was driven by an increase among veterans aged 45–64 years (8.2% to 13.5%; p < 0.001), but the prevalence of major depressive disorder and posttraumatic stress disorder positive screens remained stable. Using a continuous measure of psychiatric distress, an estimated 13.2% of veterans reported a clinically meaningful pre-to-peri-pandemic increase in distress (mean = 1.1 standard deviation). Veterans with a larger pre-pandemic social network size and secure attachment style were less likely to experience increased distress, whereas veterans reporting more pre-pandemic loneliness were more likely to experience increased distress. Concerns about pandemic-related social losses, mental health COVID-19 effects, and housing stability during the pandemic were associated with increased distress, over-and-above pre-pandemic factors.

Although most U.S. veterans showed resilience to mental health problems nearly 1 year into the pandemic, the prevalence of GAD positive screens increased, particularly among middle-aged veterans, and one of seven veterans experienced increased distress. Clinical implications of these findings are discussed.

When vaccination depends on injection, it is plausible that the blood-injection-injury cluster of fears may contribute to hesitancy. Our primary aim was to estimate in the UK adult population the proportion of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy explained by blood-injection-injury fears.

In total, 15 014 UK adults, quota sampled to match the population for age, gender, ethnicity, income and region, took part (19 January–5 February 2021) in a non-probability online survey. The Oxford COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy Scale assessed intent to be vaccinated. Two scales (Specific Phobia Scale-blood-injection-injury phobia and Medical Fear Survey–injections and blood subscale) assessed blood-injection-injury fears. Four items from these scales were used to create a factor score specifically for injection fears.

In total, 3927 (26.2%) screened positive for blood-injection-injury phobia. Individuals screening positive (22.0%) were more likely to report COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy compared to individuals screening negative (11.5%), odds ratio = 2.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.97–2.40, p < 0.001. The population attributable fraction (PAF) indicated that if blood-injection-injury phobia were absent then this may prevent 11.5% of all instances of vaccine hesitancy, AF = 0.11; 95% CI 0.09–0.14, p < 0.001. COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was associated with higher scores on the Specific Phobia Scale, r = 0.22, p < 0.001, Medical Fear Survey, r = 0.23, p = <0.001 and injection fears, r = 0.25, p < 0.001. Injection fears were higher in youth and in Black and Asian ethnic groups, and explained a small degree of why vaccine hesitancy is higher in these groups.

Across the adult population, blood-injection-injury fears may explain approximately 10% of cases of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. Addressing such fears will likely improve the effectiveness of vaccination programmes.

Unpaid carers who look after another member of their household (home-carers) have poorer mental health than the general population. The first COVID-19 national lockdown led to an increasing reliance on home-carers and we investigate the short- and longer-term impacts of lockdown on their mental health.

Data from 9737 adult participants (aged 16+) from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (Understanding Society) were used to explore changes in 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) score between (a) pre-pandemic (2019) and early lockdowns (April 2020) and (b) early and later (July 2020) lockdowns.

GHQ-12 scores among home-carers were higher pre-lockdown and increased more than for non-carers from 2019 to April 2020 with further increases for home-carers compared with non-carers between April and July. Compared with respondents caring for a spouse/partner, those caring for a child under 18 had a particularly marked increase in GHQ-12 score between 2019 and April, as did those caring for someone with a learning disability. Home-carers of children under 18 improved from April to July while those caring for adult children saw a marked worsening of their mental health. Home-carers with greater care burden saw larger increases in GHQ-12 score from 2019 to April and from April to July, and increases through both periods were greater for home-carers who had formal help prior to lockdown but then lost it.

The mental health of home-carers deteriorated more during lockdown than non-carers. Policies that reinstate support for them and their care-recipients will benefit the health of both vulnerable groups.

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and major depressive disorder (MDD) are commonly reported co-occurring mental health consequences of psychological trauma exposure. The disorders have high genetic overlap. Trauma is a complex phenotype but research suggests that trauma sensitivity has a heritable basis. We investigated whether sensitivity to trauma in those with MDD reflects a similar genetic component in those with PTSD.

Genetic correlations between PTSD and MDD in individuals reporting trauma and MDD in individuals not reporting trauma were estimated, as well as with recurrent MDD and single-episode MDD, using genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics. Genetic correlations were replicated using PTSD data from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium and the Million Veteran Program. Polygenic risk scores were generated in UK Biobank participants who met the criteria for lifetime MDD (N = 29 471). We investigated whether genetic loading for PTSD was associated with reporting trauma in these individuals.

Genetic loading for PTSD was significantly associated with reporting trauma in individuals with MDD [OR 1.04 (95% CI 1.01–1.07), Empirical-p = 0.02]. PTSD was significantly more genetically correlated with recurrent MDD than with MDD in individuals not reporting trauma (rg differences = ~0.2, p < 0.008). Participants who had experienced recurrent MDD reported significantly higher rates of trauma than participants who had experienced single-episode MDD (χ2 > 166, p < 0.001)

Our findings point towards the existence of genetic variants associated with trauma sensitivity that might be shared between PTSD and MDD, although replication with better powered GWAS is needed. Our findings corroborate previous research highlighting trauma exposure as a key risk factor for recurrent MDD.

Childhood trauma increases risk for psychopathology and cognitive impairment. Prior research mainly focused on the hippocampus and amygdala in single diagnostic categories. However, other brain regions may be impacted by trauma as well, and effects may be independent of diagnosis. This cross-sectional study investigated cortical and subcortical gray matter volume in relation to childhood trauma severity.

We included 554 participants: 250 bipolar-I patients, 84 schizophrenia-spectrum patients and 220 healthy individuals without a psychiatric history. Participants filled in the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire. Anatomical T1 MRI scans were acquired at 3T, regional brain morphology was assessed using Freesurfer.

In the total sample, trauma-related gray matter reductions were found in the frontal lobe (β = −0.049, p = 0.008; q = 0.048), this effect was driven by the right medial orbitofrontal, paracentral, superior frontal regions and the left precentral region. No trauma-related volume reductions were observed in any other (sub)cortical lobes nor the hippocampus or amygdala, trauma-by-group (i.e. both patient groups and healthy subjects) interaction effects were absent. A categorical approach confirmed a pattern of more pronounced frontal gray matter reductions in individuals reporting multiple forms of trauma and across quartiles of cumulative trauma scores. Similar dose−response patterns were revealed within the bipolar and healthy subgroups, but did not reach significance in schizophrenia-spectrum patients.

Findings show that childhood trauma is linked to frontal gray matter reductions, independent of psychiatric morbidity. Our results indicate that childhood trauma importantly contributes to the neurobiological changes commonly observed across psychiatric disorders. Frontal volume alterations may underpin affective and cognitive disturbances observed in trauma-exposed individuals.

A recent hypothesis postulates the existence of an ‘immune-metabolic depression’ (IMD) dimension characterized by metabolic dysregulations. Combining data on metabolomics and depressive symptoms, we aimed to identify depressions associated with an increased risk of adverse metabolic alterations.

Clustering data were from 1094 individuals with major depressive disorder in the last 6 months and measures of 149 metabolites from a 1H-NMR platform and 30 depressive symptoms (IDS-SR30). Canonical correlation analyses (CCA) were used to identify main independent metabolite-symptom axes of variance. Then, for the replication, we examined the association of the identified dimensions with metabolites from the same platform and cardiometabolic diseases in an independent population-based cohort (n = 6572).

CCA identified an overall depression dimension and a dimension resembling IMD, in which symptoms such as sleeping too much, increased appetite, and low energy level had higher relative loading. In the independent sample, the overall depression dimension was associated with lower cardiometabolic risk, such as (i.e. per s.d.) HOMA-1B −0.06 (95% CI −0.09 – −0.04), and visceral adipose tissue −0.10 cm2 (95% CI −0.14 – −0.07). In contrast, the IMD dimension was associated with well-known cardiometabolic diseases such as higher visceral adipose tissue 0.08 cm2 (95% CI 0.04–0.12), HOMA-1B 0.06 (95% CI 0.04–0.09), and lower HDL-cholesterol levels −0.03 mmol/L (95% CI −0.05 – −0.01).

Combining metabolomics and clinical symptoms we identified a replicable depression dimension associated with adverse metabolic alterations, in line with the IMD hypothesis. Patients with IMD may be at higher cardiometabolic risk and may benefit from specific treatment targeting underlying metabolic dysregulations.

Medically unexplained symptoms otherwise referred to as persistent physical symptoms (PPS) are debilitating to patients. As many specific PPS syndromes share common behavioural, cognitive, and affective influences, transdiagnostic treatments might be effective for this patient group. We evaluated the clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of a therapist-delivered, transdiagnostic cognitive behavioural intervention (TDT-CBT) plus (+) standard medical care (SMC) v. SMC alone for the treatment of patients with PPS in secondary medical care.

A two-arm randomised controlled trial, with measurements taken at baseline and at 9, 20, 40- and 52-weeks post randomisation. The primary outcome measure was the Work and Social Adjustment Scale (WSAS) at 52 weeks. Secondary outcomes included mood (PHQ-9 and GAD-7), symptom severity (PHQ-15), global measure of change (CGI), and the Persistent Physical Symptoms Questionnaire (PPSQ).

We randomised 324 patients and 74% were followed up at 52 weeks. The difference between groups was not statistically significant for the primary outcome (WSAS at 52 weeks: estimated difference −1.48 points, 95% confidence interval from −3.44 to 0.48, p = 0.139). However, the results indicated that some secondary outcomes had a treatment effect in favour of TDT-CBT + SMC with three outcomes showing a statistically significant difference between groups. These were WSAS at 20 weeks (p = 0.016) at the end of treatment and the PHQ-15 (p = 0.013) and CGI at 52 weeks (p = 0.011).

We have preliminary evidence that TDT-CBT + SMC may be helpful for people with a range of PPS. However, further study is required to maximise or maintain effects seen at end of treatment.

Anxiety and depression are leading causes of disability worldwide, yet individuals are often unable to access appropriate treatment. There is a need to develop effective interventions that can be delivered remotely. Previous research has suggested that emotional processing biases are a potential target for intervention, and these may be altered through brief training programs.

We report two experimental medicine studies of emotional bias training in two samples: individuals from the general population (n = 522) and individuals currently taking antidepressants to treat anxiety or depression (n = 212). Participants, recruited online, completed four sessions of EBT from their own home. Mental health and cognitive functioning outcomes were assessed at baseline, immediately post-training, and at 2-week follow-up.

In both studies, our intervention successfully trained participants to perceive ambiguous social information more positively. This persisted at a 2-week follow-up. There was no clear evidence that this change in emotional processing transferred to improvements in symptoms in the primary analyses. However, in both studies, there was weak evidence for improved quality of life following EBT amongst individuals with more depressive symptoms at baseline. No clear evidence of transfer effects was observed for self-reported daily stress, anhedonia or depressive symptoms. Exploratory analyses suggested that younger participants reported greater treatment gains.

These studies demonstrate the effectiveness of delivering a multi-session online training program to promote lasting cognitive changes. Given the inconsistent evidence for transfer effects, EBT requires further development before it can be considered as a treatment for anxiety and depression.

Digital interventions for anxiety disorders are a promising solution to address barriers to evidence-based treatment access. Precise and powerful estimates of digital intervention effectiveness for anxiety disorders are necessary for further adoption in practice. The present systematic review and meta-analysis examined the effectiveness of digital interventions across all anxiety disorders and specific to each disorder v. wait-list and care-as-usual controls.

A systematic search of bibliographic databases identified 15 030 abstracts from inception to 1 January 2020. Forty-seven randomized controlled trials (53 comparisons; 4958 participants) contributed to the meta-analysis. Subgroup analyses were conducted by an anxiety disorder, risk of bias, treatment support, recruitment, location and treatment adherence.

A large, pooled effect size of g = 0.80 [95% Confidence Interval: 0.68–0.93] was found in favor of digital interventions. Moderate to large pooled effect sizes favoring digital interventions were found for generalized anxiety disorder (g = 0.62), mixed anxiety samples (g = 0.68), panic disorder with or without agoraphobia (g = 1.08) and social anxiety disorder (g = 0.76) subgroups. No subgroups were significantly different or related to the pooled effect size. Notably, the effects of guided interventions (g = 0.84) and unguided interventions (g = 0.64) were not significantly different. Supplemental analysis comparing digital and face-to-face interventions (9 comparisons; 683 participants) found no significant difference in effect [g = 0.14 favoring digital interventions; Confidence Interval: −0.01 to 0.30].

The precise and powerful estimates found further justify the application of digital interventions for anxiety disorders in place of wait-list or usual care.

Poor mental health has consistently been associated with substance use (smoking, alcohol drinking, cannabis use, and consumption of caffeinated drinks). To properly inform public health policy it is crucial to understand the mechanisms underlying these associations, and most importantly, whether or not they are causal.

In this pre-registered systematic review, we assessed the evidence for causal relationships between mental health and substance use from Mendelian randomization (MR) studies, following PRISMA. We rated the quality of included studies using a scoring system that incorporates important indices of quality, such as the quality of phenotype measurement, instrument strength, and use of sensitivity methods.

Sixty-three studies were included for qualitative synthesis. The final quality rating was ‘−’ for 16 studies, ‘– +’ for 37 studies, and ‘+’for 10 studies. There was robust evidence that higher educational attainment decreases smoking and that there is a bi-directional, increasing relationship between smoking and (symptoms of) mental disorders. Another robust finding was that higher educational attainment increases alcohol use frequency, but decreases binge-drinking and alcohol use problems, and that mental disorders causally lead to more alcohol drinking without evidence for the reverse.

The current MR literature increases our understanding of the relationship between mental health and substance use. Bi-directional causal relationships are indicated, especially for smoking, providing further incentive to strengthen public health efforts to decrease substance use. Future MR studies should make use of large(r) samples in combination with detailed phenotypes, a wide range of sensitivity methods, and triangulate with other research methods.

Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is a psychiatric disorder with multiple symptom dimensions (e.g. contamination, symmetry). OCD clusters in families and decades of twin studies clearly demonstrate an important role for genetics in the etiology of the disorder.

In this review, we summarize the genetic epidemiology and molecular genetic studies of OCD and obsessive-compulsive symptoms.

OCD is a heritable, polygenic disorder with contributions from both common and rare variants, including de novo deleterious variations. Multiple studies have provided reliable support for a large additive genetic contribution to liability to OCD, with discrete OCD symptom dimensions having both shared and unique genetic risks. Genome-wide association studies have not produced significant results yet, likely because of small sample sizes, but larger meta-analyses are forthcoming. Both twin and genome-wide studies show that OCD shares genetic risk with its comorbid conditions (e.g. Tourette syndrome and anorexia nervosa).

Despite significant efforts to uncover the genetic basis of OCD, the mechanistic understanding of how genetic and environmental risk factors interact and converge at the molecular level to result in OCD's heterogeneous phenotype is still mostly unknown. Future investigations should increase ancestral genetic diversity, explore age and/or sex differences in genetic risk for OCD and expand the study of pharmacogenetics, gene expression, gene × environment interactions and epigenetic mechanisms for OCD.

Although the incidence of psychotic disorders among older people is substantial, little is known about the association with subsequent dementia. We aimed to examine the rate of dementia diagnosis in individuals with very late-onset schizophrenia-like psychosis (VLOSLP) compared to those without VLOSLP.

Using Swedish population register data, we established a cohort of 15 409 participants with VLOSLP matched by age and calendar period to 154 090 individuals without VLOSLP. Participants were born between 1920 and 1949 and followed from their date of first International Classification of Diseases [ICD], Revisions 8–10 (ICD-8/9/10) non-affective psychotic disorder diagnosis after age 60 years old (or the same date for matched participants) until the end of follow-up (30th December 2011), emigration, death, or first recorded ICD-8/9/10 dementia diagnosis.

We found a substantially higher rate of dementia in individuals with VLOSLP [hazard ratio (HR): 4.22, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 4.05–4.41]. Median time-to-dementia-diagnosis was 75% shorter in those with VLOSLP (time ratio: 0.25, 95% CI 0.24–0.26). This association was strongest in the first year following VLOSLP diagnosis, and attenuated over time, although dementia rates remained higher in participants with VLOSLP for up to 20 years of follow-up. This association remained after accounting for potential misdiagnosis (2-year washout HR: 2.22, 95% CI 2.10–2.36), ascertainment bias (HR: 2.89, 95% CI 2.75–3.04), and differing mortality patterns between groups (subdistribution HR: 2.89, 95% CI 2.77–3.03).

Our findings demonstrate that individuals with VLOSLP represent a high-risk group for subsequent dementia. This may be due to early prodromal changes for some individuals, highlighting the importance of ongoing symptom monitoring in people with VLOSLP.

Violence perpetrated by psychiatric inpatients is associated with modifiable factors. Current structured approaches to assess inpatient violence risk lack predictive validity and linkage to interventions.

Adult psychiatric inpatients on forensic and general wards in three psychiatric hospitals were recruited and followed up prospectively for 6 months. Information on modifiable (dynamic) risk factors were collected every 1–4 weeks, and baseline background factors. Data were transferred to a web-based monitoring system (FOxWeb) to calculate a total dynamic risk score. Outcomes were extracted from an incident-reporting system recording aggression and interpersonal violence. The association between total dynamic score and violent incidents was assessed by multilevel logistic regression and compared with dynamic score excluded.

We recruited 89 patients and conducted 624 separate assessments (median 5/patient). Mean age was 39 (s.d. 12.5) years with 20% (n = 18) female. Common diagnoses were schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (70%, n = 62) and personality disorders (20%, n = 18). There were 93 violent incidents. Factors contributing to violence risk were a total dynamic score of ⩾1 (OR 3.39, 95% CI 1.25–9.20), 10-year increase in age (OR 0.67, 0.47–0.96), and female sex (OR 2.78, 1.04–7.40). Non-significant associations with schizophrenia-spectrum disorder were found (OR 0.50, 0.20–1.21). In a fixed-effect model using all covariates, AUC was 0.77 (0.72–0.82) and 0.75 (0.70–0.80) when the dynamic score was excluded.

In predicting violence risk in individuals with psychiatric disorders, modifiable factors added little incremental value beyond static ones in a psychiatric inpatient setting. Future work should make a clear distinction between risk factors that assist in prediction and those linked to needs.

Black, Asian and minority ethnicity groups may experience better health outcomes when living in areas of high own-group ethnic density – the so-called ‘ethnic density’ hypothesis. We tested this hypothesis for the treatment outcome of compulsory admission.

Data from the 2010–2011 Mental Health Minimum Dataset (N = 1 053 617) was linked to the 2011 Census and 2010 Index of Multiple Deprivation. Own-group ethnic density was calculated by dividing the number of residents per ethnic group for each lower layer super output area (LSOA) in the Census by the LSOA total population. Multilevel modelling estimated the effect of own-group ethnic density on the risk of compulsory admission by ethnic group (White British, White other, Black, Asian and mixed), accounting for patient characteristics (age and gender), area-level deprivation and population density.

Asian and White British patients experienced a reduced risk of compulsory admission when living in the areas of high own-group ethnic density [odds ratios (OR) 0.97, 95% credible interval (CI) 0.95–0.99 and 0.94, 95% CI 0.93–0.95, respectively], whereas White minority patients were at increased risk when living in neighbourhoods of higher own-group ethnic concentration (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.11–1.26). Higher levels of own-group ethnic density were associated with an increased risk of compulsory admission for mixed-ethnicity patients, but only when deprivation and population density were excluded from the model. Neighbourhood-level concentration of own-group ethnicity for Black patients did not influence the risk of compulsory admission.

We found only minimal support for the ethnic density hypothesis for the treatment outcome of compulsory admission to under the Mental Health Act.