We give a computable bound on the rate of convergence of the occupation measure for the Gibbs sampler to the stationary distribution.

It has long been observed that independent laboratories differ in reporting the results of repeated experiments. The problem is to detect those laboratories that might be considered aberrant. Previous analyses have been based on an analysis of variance framework or on subset selection for the detection of aberrant laboratories. The present procedure is also based on an ANOVA model but uses a Bayesian estimate of the number of aberrant laboratories. Subsequent to the determination of the aberrant laboratories, a linear model is used to separate sampling and laboratory effects.

In the fall of 1948 in my course on Least Squares in the Department of Mathematical Statistics at Columbia University (and in the spring in Correlation and Chi-Square), I was particularly impressed by one of the students— Gerald J. Lieberman. I was disappointed that this promising student left Columbia after one year, but it was not long until our paths met again. It is a pleasure to dedicate this paper to my colleague and close friend!

We present results on the finite-time behavior of the discrete-time, finite-space version of the simulated annealing algorithm. The asymptotic and finite-time behavior of the annealing algorithm under slow cooling will be shown to depend on the largest eigenvalue of a certain matrix. To illustrate the utility of our results, we study the slowly cooled annealing algorithm applied to the maximum matching problem and demonstrate a polynomial randomized approximation property of the algorithm.

A simulation method is developed for computing average reward optimal policies, for a finite state and action Markovian decision process. It is shown that the method is consistent; i.e., it produces solutions arbitrarily close to the optimal. Various types of estimation errors and confidence bounds are examined. Finally, it is shown that the probability distribution of the number of simulation cycles required to compute an e-optimal policy satisfies a large deviations property.

We show that winning the game New Age Solitaire only depends on the number of rising sequences in the deck used. The probability of winning for the special case of a new deck that is shuffled using the GSR shuffle (and two variants) are studied. We show that this game pinpoints the Achilles' heel of the GSR shuffle as is demonstrated using the variation distance.

In this paper, we consider a two-stage call center staffing model. In the first stage, the interval staffing levels are set under arrival rate uncertainty. In the second stage, these initial staffing levels are corrected to the right value based on more precise arrival rate information. We show that this problem is of newsvendor type, where the costs are the initial staffing costs plus the second stage adaptation costs. We show that we should initially staff according to a quantile of the distributional forecast, rather than the mean. It is also shown that the errors in staffing are approximately linear in the forecasting errors. This leads to the conclusion that the weighted sum of errors should be the error measurement in call center forecasting, since minimizing, it minimizes the total staffing costs. In special cases where the costs are symmetric for over- and understaffing, this is equivalent to minimizing the weighted absolute percentage error.

Motivated by two measures of presortedness, number of runs and oscillation of a permutation, related to the sorting problem, we derive an error bound for normal approximation to the distribution of Here, αij's are given real numbers and π is a uniformly distributed random permutation of {l,…, n}. The derivation is based on Stein's method.

The relaxation time for an ergodic Markov process is a measure of the time until ergodicity is reached from its initial state. In this paper the relaxation time for an ergodic truncated birth-death process is studied. It is shown that the relaxation time for such a process on states {0,1, …, N} is the quasi-stationary exit time from the set {,2, …, N{0,1,…, N, N + 1} with two-sided absorption at states 0 and N + 1. The existence of such a dual process has been observed by Siegmund [15] for stochastically monotone Markov processes on the real line. Exit times for birth- death processes with two absorbing states are studied and an efficient algorithm for the numerical evaluation of mean exit times is presented. Simple analytical lower bounds for the relaxation times are obtained. These bounds are numerically accessible. Finally, the sensitivity of the relaxation time to variations in birth and death rates is studied.

We consider a problem in which jobs continually arrive to a set of n processors that are arranged in an ordered list. When a job arrives the first processor in line attempts to process it; if it is unsuccessful then the next in line attempts it, and so on. Each time that processor j attempts to process a job it is, independently of all else, successful with (an unknown) probability pj. After a job has been completed or all n attempts have failed then, based on the result, we can reorder the processors before the next job arrives, with the objective being to minimize the average number of attempts per job. This paper compares the transposition rule and the move to the front rule.

It is known that a threshold policy (or trunk reservation policy) is optimal for Erlang's loss system under certain assumptions. This paper examines the robustness of this policy under departures from the standard assumption of Poisson arrivals and shows that the optimal policy has a generalized trunk reservation form.

We show how the importance sampling identity can often be used to efficiently bound tail probabilities, illustrating with the normal, Poisson, and gamma random variables.

This paper considers optimal admission and routing control in multi-class service systems in which customers can either receive quality regular service which is subject to congestion or can receive congestion-free but less desirable service at an alternative service station, which we call the self-service station. We formulate the problem within the Markov decision process framework and focus on characterizing the structure of dynamic optimal policies which maximize the expected long-run rewards. For this, value function and sample path arguments are used. The congestion sensitivity of customers is modeled with class-independent holding costs at the regular service station. The results show how the admission rewards of customer classes affect their priorities at the regular and self-service stations. We explore that the priority for regular service may not only depend on regular service admission rewards of classes but also on the difference between regular and self-service admission rewards. We show that optimal policies have monotonicity properties, regarding the optimal decisions of individual customer classes such that they divide the state space into three connected regions per class.

A number of data items (1,2,…,n) are to be maintained in a structure which consists of several linear lists. Successive requests to access items are independent random variables, and the probability that a particular request is for item i is pi. The cost of accessing the jth item from the front of a list is j. For a single list, the move-to-front rule (MF) has been extensively studied and has been shown to provide good performance. In some actual circumstances, MF is the only physically realizable or convenient policy. We extend the study of move-to-front by examining the case where items are kept in several lists. Following its access, an item must be replaced at the front of one of the lists. In certain cases, assuming the pi's are known, the policy which minimizes the average retrieval cost takes a particularly simple form: no item is ever moved from the list in which it is placed initially.

We consider a two-stage service system with two types of servers, namely subordinates who perform the first-stage service and supervisors who have their own responsibilities in addition to collaborating with the subordinates on the second-stage service. Rewards are earned when first- or second-stage service is completed and when supervisors finish one of their own responsibilities. Costs are incurred when impatient customers abandon without completing the second-stage service. Our problem is to determine how the supervisors should distribute their time between their joint work with the subordinates and their own responsibilities. Under the assumptions that service times at both stages are exponentially distributed and that the customers waiting for second-stage service abandon after an exponential amount of time, we prove that one of two policies will maximize the long-run average profit. Namely, it is optimal for supervisors to start collaborating with subordinates either when subordinates can no longer serve new customers or as soon as there is a customer ready for second-stage service. Furthermore, we show that the optimality condition is a simple threshold on the system parameters. We conclude by proving that pooling supervisors (and their associated subordinates) improves system performance, but with limited returns as more supervisors are pooled.

In this paper, we analyze the end-to-end delay performance of a tandem queueing system with mobile queues. Due to state-space explosion, there is no hope for a numerical exact analysis for the joint-queue-length distribution. For this reason, we present an analytical approximation that is based on queue-length analysis. Through extensive numerical validation, we find that the queue-length approximation exhibits excellent performance for light traffic load.

In this paper, we establish some stochastic comparison results for largest claim amounts of two sets of independent and also for interdependent portfolios under the setup of the proportional odds model. We also establish stochastic comparison results for aggregate claim amounts of two sets of independent portfolios. Further, stochastic comparisons for largest claim amounts from two sets of independent multiple-outlier claims have also been studied. The results we obtained apply to the whole family of extended distributions, also known as the Marshall–Olkin family of distributions. We have given many numerical examples to illustrate the results obtained.

Standard server assignment policies for multi-server queueing stations include the noncollaborative policy, where the servers work in parallel on different jobs; and the fully collaborative policy, where the servers work together on the same job. However, if each job can be decomposed into subtasks with no precedence relationships, then we consider a form of server coordination named task assignment where the servers work in parallel on different subtasks of the same job. We identify the task assignment policy that maximizes the long-run average throughput of a queueing station with finite internal buffers when blocked servers can be idled or reassigned to either replace or collaborate with other servers on unblocked subtasks. We then compare the server coordination policies and show that the task assignment is best when the servers are highly specialized; otherwise, the fully collaborative or noncollaborative policies are preferable depending on whether the synergy level among the servers is high or not. We also provide numerical results that quantify our previous comparison. Finally, we address buffer allocation in longer lines where there are precedence relationships between some of the tasks, and present numerical results that suggest our comparisons for one queueing station generalize to longer lines.