This paper applies a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model to U.S. data with the aim of analyzing monetary transmission via private sector balance sheets, credit risk spreads, and house prices and of exploring the role of monetary policy in the housing and credit boom prior to the global financial crisis. We find that monetary policy shocks have a persistent effect on house prices, real estate wealth, and private sector debt and a strong short-lived effect on risk spreads in money and mortgage markets. Moreover, the results suggest that monetary policy contributed considerably to the unsustainable precrisis developments in housing and credit markets. Although monetary policy shocks contributed discernibly at a late stage of the boom, feedback effects of other (macroeconomic and financial) shocks via lower policy rates kicked in earlier and appear to have been considerable.

This paper characterizes optimal monetary policy in an economy with endogenous firm entry, a cash-in-advance constraint, and preset wages. Firms must make profits to cover entry costs; thus the markup on goods prices is efficient. However, because leisure is not priced at a markup, the consumption–leisure trade-off is distorted. Consequently, the real wage, hours, and production are suboptimally low. Because of the labor requirement for entry, insufficient labor supply also implies that entry is too low. This paper shows that in the absence of fiscal instruments such as labor income subsidies, the optimal monetary policy achieves higher welfare under sticky wages than under flexible wages. The policy maker uses the money supply instrument to raise the real wage—the cost of leisure—above its flexible-wage level, in response to expansionary shocks to productivity and entry costs. This increases labor supply, expanding production and firm entry.

I add intangible capital to a variant of the neoclassical growth model that already features physical and human capital, and study the implications for international income differences. I calibrate the parameters associated with intangible capital by using new estimates of investment in intangibles by Corrado et al. [Review of Income and Wealth 55, 661–685 (2009)] and depreciation rates by Corrado and Hulten [American Economic Review 100, 99–104 (2010)]. I find that for a given efficiency difference between rich and poor countries, the model with intangible capital can explain more than double the income differences of the model without. Put another way, in the benchmark case, differences in intangible capital account for 14.3% of the observed income differences. I also examine the role played by intangible capital in versions of the model with barriers to accumulation. In all the variants that I consider, differences in intangible capital account for 10% to 22% of the observed income differences.

This paper tests whether increases and decreases in labor taxes have an asymmetric impact on unemployment. Using a panel of 16 OECD countries over the period 1970–2005, we estimate a panel unobserved-component model to account for the fact that unemployment rates and labor taxes are nonstationary but not cointegrated. We find a positive impact of labor tax increases on unemployment in European and Nordic countries, whereas for labor tax decreases, no significant impact is found in these countries. For Anglo-Saxon countries, neither increases nor decreases in labor taxes have any impact on unemployment.

To what extent did deviations from the Taylor rule between 2002 and 2006 help to promote price stability and maximum sustainable employment? To address that question, I estimate a New Keynesian model with unemployment and perform a counterfactual experiment where monetary policy strictly follows a Taylor rule over the period 2002:Q1–2006:Q4. I find that such a policy would have generated a sizeable increase in unemployment and resulted in an undesirably low rate of inflation. Around mid-2004, when the counterfactual deviates the most from the actual series, the model indicates that the probability of an unemployment rate greater than 8% would have been as high as 80%, whereas the probability of an inflation rate above 1% would have been close to zero.

This paper explores the consequences of tax enforcement policies for monetary policy. Agents may evade taxes by working in the informal sector, but they are detected with positive probability. Workers are rewarded with government benefits that are proportional to formal (taxed) work. When enforcement is imperfect and collecting taxes is costly, the optimal inflation rate is positive and inflation becomes a second-best tax. Deviations from the Friedman rule are optimal and depend on the tax enforcement policies. Using U.S. data, we compute the quantitative effect of different tax structures on inflation and interest rate. We show that different tax enforcement and government spending (benefits) policies induce different optimal outcomes for inflation and interest rates.

Government shares in total output are characterized by significant variation across countries. I noticed a strong negative correlation between government consumption shares and the price of government services in terms of private consumption. Motivated by this empirical observation, I developed a neoclassical growth model with added government that is capable of matching the variation in government shares very closely using only relative prices. In addition, I provide empirical evidence showing that the relative price of government consumption increases with income, which is consistent with distortions prevailing in poor countries. These two observations combined imply that government shares tend to be higher in poorer countries.

We show the possibility of ergodic chaos in the RSS model, due to Robinson, Solow, and Srinivasan. Moreover, under a relevant parametric regime, we analytically characterize the unique invariant probability measure that describes the statistical properties of a typical trajectory of capital stocks.

This paper explores the interplay between credit market development and human capital accumulation in a two-period overlapping-generations economy with asymmetric information under the assumption that young lenders channel credits to young borrowers and acquire education. We find that, at the self-selection equilibrium, lenders will allocate more time to acquire education if the cost of screening borrowers falls. Furthermore, a longer duration of lenders' schooling time suppresses borrowers' incentive to cheat thereby enabling lenders to screen less frequently. Our preliminary cross-country empirical analysis appears to support these findings.

This paper explores the dynamics of semiendogenous versus fully endogenous growth models in “lab equipment” specifications of the models with expanding sectors. Capital is allowed to accumulate and is used, together with other inputs, to produce new knowledge. The stability of the steady state path is found to be determined by the inequality and/or knife-edge restrictions needed to produce steady state growth. This paper takes the ratio of the shadow price of capital to knowledge and the level of consumption as jump variables. Semiendogenous growth models lead to a 4 × 4 dynamic system where the sign of the coefficient matrix of the log linearized dynamic system is indefinite, leading to a potential for both stable and unstable equilibria. The knife-edge restrictions needed to generate policy influences on growth are shown to be restrictions that reduce the system to 3 × 3 with a positive definite coefficient matrix, thereby guaranteeing a globally stable equilibrium. Implications for empirical testing are addressed.

In this paper we study optimal policies in an environment where search frictions both in labor and goods markets give rise to unemployment and fiat money, as in Berentsen, Menzio, and Wright (American Economic Review, 2011). The underlying frictions that give rise to endogenous unemployment and fiat money also result in inefficient outcomes. Here we show that efficiency can be restored whenever lump sum monetary transfers are possible and a decentralized production subsidy financed by money printing and a vacancy subsidy financed by a dividend tax exist. This is the case even when the Hosios and Friedman rules do not hold.

We provide industry-level estimates of the elasticity of substitution (σ) between capital and labor in the United States. We also estimate rates of factor augmentation. Aggregate estimates are produced. Our empirical model comes from the first-order conditions associated with a constant–elasticity of substitution production function. Our data represent 35 industries at roughly the 2-digit SIC level, 1960–2005. We find that aggregate U.S. σ is likely less than 0.620. σ is likely less than unity for a large majority of individual industries. Evidence also suggests that aggregate σ is less than the value-added share-weighted average of industry σ's. Aggregate technical change appears to be net labor–augmenting. This also appears to be true for the large majority of individual industries, but several industries may be characterized by net capital augmentation. When industry-level elasticity estimates are mapped to model sectors, the manufacturing sector σ is lower than that of services; the investment sector σ is lower than that of consumption.

Since the 1970s, the characteristics of international business cycles have changed, and deeper economic integration has modified the features of cross-country comovement. We formally test for correlation shifts in measures of real economic activity and economic/financial integration. In Europe we find some statistically significant evidence of higher correlations for several subgroups of countries following the creation of the EMU in 1999. We detect significantly more pronounced correlations between Mexico and the United States and between Mexico and Canada in North America after the enforcement of the NAFTA in 1994. Results are derived from an econometric framework based on nonparametric iterated stationary bootstrap methods, whose statistical reliability and performance we assess through Monte Carlo simulations.

Models with heterogeneous interacting agents explain macro phenomena through interactions at the micro level. We propose genetic algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations and individual forecasting behaviour in recent learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects (Hommes et al. 2007), simultaneously and across different treatments.

This paper develops a general technique for the computation of comparative dynamics in perfect-foresight discrete-time models. The method developed here is both applicable and general; it can be used to analyze the effects of the perturbation of parameters on endogenous variables and the welfare of an economic system derived from more general multisector models. It is neither restricted to the system's dimensions nor restricted by the assumption of distinct eigenvalues in the system.

This study examines the expectational stability of rational expectations equilibria (REE) under alternative Taylor rules when trend inflation is nonzero. We find that when trend inflation is high, the REE is likely to be expectationally unstable. This result holds true regardless of the nature of the data (such as contemporaneous, forecast, or lagged data) introduced in the Taylor rule. Our results suggest that high macroeconomic volatility during the period of high trend inflation can be explained well by introducing the concept of expectational stability.

We analyze the importance of the frequency of decision making for macroeconomic dynamics, in the context of a simple, well-known business cycle model with balanced budget rules. We explain how the frequency of decision making (period length) and the measurement unit of time (calibration frequency) differ and examine how local stability is affected by changes in the period length. We find that as the period grows longer, indeterminacy occurs less often. This may have significant quantitative implications: for the model at hand, there is a wide range of economically relevant labor tax rates (from 30% to 38%) for which the continuous-time model gives indeterminacy, whereas the discrete-time model has determinate dynamics.

We develop an overlapping-generations model of growth and the environment in relation to public policy on education. Beyond the traditional mechanisms through which knowledge, growth, and the environment interplay, we stress the role played by education in environmental awareness. Assuming first that environmental awareness is constant, we show the existence of a balanced-growth path (BGP) along which environmental quality increases continually. Then, if education enhances environmental awareness, the equilibrium properties are modified: the economy can reach a steady state or converge to an asymptotic BGP. Therefore, education does not necessarily promote sustained and sustainable growth.