This paper investigates how the inclusion of capital in the workhorse new open economy macro model affects its ability to generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates. We show that capital accumulation facilitates intertemporal consumption smoothing and significantly reduces the volatility of the real exchange rate. Nonetheless, monetary and investment-specific technology (IST) shocks still induce more real exchange rate volatility and less consumption comovement than productivity shocks (with or without capital). We find that endogenous persistence is particularly sensitive to the inertia of the monetary policy rule even with persistent exogenous shocks. However, irrespective of whether capital is present, productivity and IST shocks trigger highly persistent real exchange rates, whereas monetary shocks do not. Moreover, we point out that IST shocks tend to generate countercyclical real exchange rates—unlike productivity or monetary shocks—but have the counterfactual effect of also producing excessive investment volatility and countercyclical consumption.

U.S. production has shifted from goods-producing to service-producing industries. We assess whether this shift contributed to the decline in U.S. output volatility over the period 1949–2005 and provide an estimate of its relative importance. Growth rates of GDP by industry are analyzed in a seemingly unrelated multivariate autoregression framework with time-varying innovation covariance matrices. These changing unobserved covariance matrices are modeled as a Wishart autoregressive process of order one, which results in a nonlinear state-space system. The particle filter is used to obtain estimates of the innovation covariance matrix at each point in time. Several counterfactual experiments make it possible to apportion the decline in output volatility between the shift in the sectoral composition and changes in innovations. Our main finding is that the shift into the service sector can explain about 30% of the decline in GDP's volatility, despite the fact that some sectors became even more volatile. This result is robust across a wide variety of alternative specifications.

A classic result in dynamic public economics states that there is no welfare rationale for pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pensions in a dynamically efficient overlapping-generations economy with exogenous labor supply. Parenthetically, a welfare justification for PAYG pensions exists if the economy is dynamically inefficient. Under the sufficient condition that the old be no less risk-averse than the young, both these results extend to an economy with endogenous labor supply.

Using a standard open economy DSGE model, it is shown that the timing of asset trade relative to policy decisions has a potentially important impact on the welfare evaluation of monetary policy at the individual-country level. If asset trade in the initial period takes place before the announcement of policy, a national policy maker can choose a policy rule that reduces the work effort of households in the policy maker's country, in the knowledge that consumption is fully insured by optimally chosen international portfolio positions. But if asset trade takes place after the policy announcement, this insurance is absent and households in the policy maker's country bear the full consumption consequences of the chosen policy rule. The welfare incentives faced by national policy makers are very different between the two cases. Numerical examples confirm that asset-market timing has a significant impact on the optimal policy rule.

We present a set of research and briefly describe the individual contributions to the Macroeconomic Dynamics special issue on inequality, public insurance, and monetary policy.

We develop a framework for measuring and analyzing medium-run departures from balanced growth, and apply it to developments in the euro area. A time-varying factor-augmenting production function (mimicking directed technical change) with below-unitary substitution elasticity is shown to account for the observed dynamics of factor incomes shares, TFP growth, and its components. Based on careful data accounting, we also identify a rising markup and the importance of financial-market regulations in the 1970s. The balanced growth path emerges as a special (and testable) case of our framework, as do existing strands of medium-run debates.

In this paper, we propose a price-augmenting asymptotically ideal model (AIM) cost function to investigate the effects of public infrastructure on the performance of the U.S. manufacturing industry, using KLEMS data over the period from 1953 to 2001. In doing so, we make a distinction between the productivity effect and the production factor effect of public infrastructure. This distinction allows us to focus on the more interesting productivity effect by incorporating public infrastructure into the AIM cost function through the efficiency index. Moreover, we specify the growth rate of the efficiency index as a Box–Cox function of public infrastructure and a time trend, a proxy for other technology. The excellent flexibility of our price-augmenting AIM cost function offers many insights regarding the effects of infrastructure on the U.S. manufacturing sector.

We estimate a two-country open economy version of the New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the United States and the Euro area, using Bayesian techniques that allow for both determinacy and indeterminacy of the equilibrium. Empirical analysis shows that the worldwide equilibrium is indeterminate due to a passive monetary policy in the Euro area, even if U.S. policy is aggressive enough. We demonstrate that the impulse responses under indeterminacy exhibit dynamics different from those under determinacy and that sunspot shocks affect the Euro economy to a substantial degree, whereas the transmission of sunspots to the United States is limited.

This paper investigates the effects of a binding minimum wage in an economy which exhibits multiple unemployment equilibria. For this purpose, we develop a theoretical model based on the simple imperfectly competitive model of Manning [In Conference Papers, Economic Journal 100, 151–162 (1990)], in which we introduce labor heterogeneity and knowledge spillovers in the individual production technology. Then, using numerical simulations, we show that a binding minimum wage rules out the occurrence of an inefficient equilibrium. Last, we analyze the effects of a minimum wage increase on the labor market's outcomes.

This paper explores the main determinants of productivity growth. The analysis is performed using Spanish firm-level data. We define a framework where the relative magnitudes of alternative, but not exclusive, sources of technical change are simultaneously estimated. Our main finding is that the average total factor productivity (TFP) growth is fully explained by embodied technical progress (i.e., either new capital goods or human capital). Our results contradict the existence of a positive contribution of economywide neutral technological progress in determining average TFP growth. They also leave little room for large, unpriced effects external to the firm, both at the aggregate and at the industry level. We find evidence of firm-specific learning by doing, short-lived and due to adoption of new processes.

Housing is an important component of the consumption basket. Because both rental prices and goods prices are sticky, the literature suggests that optimal monetary policy should stabilize both types of prices, with the optimal weight on rental inflation proportional to the housing expenditure share. In a two-sector DSGE model with sticky rental prices and goods prices, however, we find that the optimal weight on rental inflation in the Taylor rule is small—much smaller than that implied by the housing expenditure share. We show that the asymmetry in policy responses to rent inflation versus goods inflation stems from the asymmetry in factor intensity between the two sectors.

In this paper, we set up a three-period stochastic overlapping-generations model to analyze the implications of income inequality and mobility for demand for redistribution and social insurance. We model the size of two different public programs under the welfare state. We investigate bidimensional voting on the tax rates that determine the allocation of government revenues among transfer payments and old-age pensions. We show that the coalitions formed, the resulting political equilibria, and the demand for redistribution crucially depend on the level of income inequality and mobility.

We study adaptive learning in economic environments subject to recurring structural change. Stochastically evolving institutional and policymaking features can be described by regime-switching models with parameters that evolve according to finite state Markov processes. We demonstrate that in nonlinear models of this form, the presence of sunspot equilibria implies two natural schemes for learning the conditional means of endogenous variables: under mean value learning, agents condition on a sunspot variable that captures the self-fulfilling serial correlation in the equilibrium, whereas under vector autoregression learning (VAR learning), the self-fulfilling serial correlation must be learned. We show that an intuitive condition ensures convergence to a regime-switching rational expectations equilibrium. However, the stability of sunspot equilibria, when they exist, depends on whether agents adopt mean value or VAR learning: coordinating on sunspot equilibria via a VAR learning rule is not possible. To illustrate these phenomena, we develop results for an overlapping-generations model and a New Keynesian model.

This paper applies panel cointegration tests and panel vector error correction models for 17 OECD countries and considers cross-sectional dependence and structural breaks to investigate the interrelationship between an insurance market's development and real output, controlling for banking activities. We first obtain evidence of a fairly strong long-run equilibrium relationship among them. Second, we find that insurance market development has positive effects on real output and that banking activities have an unfavorable, if not negative, effect on real output. In fact, insurance market activity is much more productive than banking sector activity. Finally, there exists bidirectional causality between insurance premiums and economic growth in the long run, suggesting the existence of the feedback hypothesis for the insurance–output nexus.

We investigate the cost of business-cycle uncertainty (lack of firm knowledge about the prevailing state of the economy) in a setup where the economy switches between booms and recessions at random intervals. Calibrating an exchange economy model to match the properties of the postwar U.S. data, we find that giving consumers additional information beyond that already contained in the endowment growth rates yields only moderate gains. In a second stage, we investigate the effect of nonperfect information processing in this setting. Surprisingly, we find that opting for slow learning might yield large utility gains, especially for consumers with a strong preference for early resolution of uncertainty.

The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a simple frictionless dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous expectations, and update their beliefs based on past performance, as in Brock and Hommes [Econometrica 65(5), 1059–1095 (1997)]. The stabilizing effect of different monetary policies depends on the ecology of forecasting rules (i.e., the composition of the set of predictors), on agents' sensitivity to differences in forecasting performance, and on how aggressively the monetary authority sets the nominal interest rate in response to inflation. In particular, if the monetary authority responds only weakly to inflation, a cumulative process with rising inflation is likely. On the other hand, a Taylor interest rate rule that sets the interest rate more than point for point in response to inflation stabilizes inflation dynamics, but does not always lead the system to converge to the rational expectations equilibrium, as multiple equilibria may persist.

We extend the dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin model in Bond et al. [Economic Theory (48, 171–204, 2011)] and show that if the labor-intensive good is inferior, then there may exist multiple steady states in autarky and poverty traps can arise. Poverty traps for the world economy, in the form of Pareto-dominated steady states, are also shown to exist. We show that the opening of trade can have the effect of pulling the initially poorer country out of a poverty trap, with both countries having steady state capital stocks exceeding the autarky level. However, trade can also pull an initially richer country into a poverty trap. These possibilities are a sharp contrast with dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin models with normality in consumption, where the country with the larger (smaller) capital stock than the other will reach a steady state where the level of welfare is higher (lower) than in the autarkic steady state.

This paper presents an overlapping generations model with technology choice and imperfect financial markets, and examines the evolution of the income distribution in economic development. The model shows that improvements in financial infrastructure facilitate economic development both by raising the aggregate capital–labor ratio and by causing a technological shift to more capital-intensive technologies. Although a higher capital–labor ratio under a given technology reduces inequality, a technological shift can lead to a concentration of economic rents among a smaller number of agents. We derive the condition under which an improvement in financial infrastructure actually decreases the average utility of agents.

The emergence of fiat money is studied in a multiple-matching environment in which exchange is organized around trading posts and prices are determined with a dynamic monopolistically competitive framework. Each household consumes a bundle of commodities and has a preference for consumption variety. We determine the endogenous organization of exchange between firms and shoppers, the means of factor payment (remuneration), and the prices at which these trades occur. We verify that the endogenous linkage of factor payments with the medium of exchange can lead to a monetary equilibrium outcome where only fiat money trades for goods, an ex ante feature of cash-in-advance models. We also examine the long-run effects of money growth on equilibrium exchange patterns. A key finding, consistent with documented hyperinflationary episodes, is that a sufficiently rapid expansion of the money supply leads to the gradual emergence of barter, where sellers accept both goods and cash payments and workers receive part of their remuneration in goods.

We consider an OLG model with emissions arising from production and potentially irreversible pollution. Pollution control consists of the assignment of permits to firms; private agents also can abate pollution. In this setting, we prove that multiple equilibria exist. Due to the possible irreversibility of pollution, the economy can be dragged into both environmental and poverty traps. First, we show that choosing an emission quota at the lowest level beyond a critical threshold is a means to avoid these two types of traps. We also prove that when the agents do not engage in maintenance, a reduction of the quota leads to a reduction in pollution but also to slower capital accumulation. In contrast, when agents do engage in maintenance, a reduction of the quota provides a double dividend.