To identify the labor market reforms that offer the highest payoff, we develop a medium-scale two-country model representing a currency union featuring real and nominal rigidities and heterogeneous labor market frictions. A labor market reform is modeled as a permanent structural change in the labor market institutions. We find that changes in the domestic labor market can have drastic welfare implications for both countries. Welfare improvements are observed when a worker (a firm) is more likely to find a job (a worker) or when jobs are less likely to be destroyed. In addition, labor market heterogeneity has sizeable effects on the level of welfare gains. The more flexible the foreign labor market, the higher its welfare. Finally, we show that (i) the way the monetary authorities conduct their policy has negligible welfare effects and (ii) matching frictions can offset the negative effect of price rigidities in the economy.

I add intangible capital to a variant of the neoclassical growth model that already features physical and human capital, and study the implications for international income differences. I calibrate the parameters associated with intangible capital by using new estimates of investment in intangibles by Corrado et al. [Review of Income and Wealth 55, 661–685 (2009)] and depreciation rates by Corrado and Hulten [American Economic Review 100, 99–104 (2010)]. I find that for a given efficiency difference between rich and poor countries, the model with intangible capital can explain more than double the income differences of the model without. Put another way, in the benchmark case, differences in intangible capital account for 14.3% of the observed income differences. I also examine the role played by intangible capital in versions of the model with barriers to accumulation. In all the variants that I consider, differences in intangible capital account for 10% to 22% of the observed income differences.

This note evaluates whether a New Open Economy model can reproduce qualitatively the observed fluctuations of the tradeable and nontradeable sectors of the U.S. economy. The answer is positive: both in the model and in the data, the standard deviations of tradeable inflation, output, and employment are significantly higher than the standard deviations of the corresponding nontradeable sector variables. The key role in generating this result is played by the greater responsiveness of tradeable sector variables to monetary shocks.

This paper applies smooth transition regressions to incorporate nonlinearity into the impact of trading volume on exchange rate volatility, the so-called mixture distribution hypothesis (MDH). Linking this analysis to the Tobin tax debate, we provide the first empirical corroboration that such a tax may be effective in limiting speculation and reducing exchange rate volatility, especially in turbulent times. Our study points to two main results. First, we show that nonlinearities should be taken into account to explain the MDH. When volatility, spreads, and volume are simultaneously high, the relationship between trading volume and volatility tends to grow stronger and thus the MDH holds in turbulent periods. Second, on the assumption of constant trading volume elasticity, a Tobin tax would have been stabilizing and effective in the 2008 crisis.

In this paper we investigate the issue of whether a floating currency is the right exchange rate regime for Canada or whether Canada should consider a currency union with the United States. In the context of the framework recently proposed by James L. Swofford, we use a semi-nonparametric flexible functional form—the asymptotically ideal model (AIM), introduced by William A. Barnett and A. Jonas—and pay explicit attention to the theoretical regularity conditions of neoclassical microeconomic theory, following the suggestions of William A. Barnett and William A. Barnett and Meenakshi Pasupathy. Our results indicate that U.S. dollar deposits are complements to domestic (Canadian) monetary assets, suggesting that Canada should continue the current exchange rate regime, allowing the exchange rate to float freely with no intervention in the foreign exchange market by the Bank of Canada.

Recently, several researchers have succeeded in producing expectation–driven cycles by balancing the tension between the wealth effect and the substitution effect stemming from the higher expected future productivity. Especially, seminal research by Christiano et al. (“Monetary Policy and Stock Market Boom–Bust Cycles,” mimeo, Northwestern University, 2007), explains “stock market boom–bust cycles,” characterized by increases in consumption, labor inputs, investment, and stock prices relating to high expected future technology levels. We, however, show that such expectation–driven cycles are difficult to generate based on “growth expectation,” which reflects expectations of higher productivity growth rates.

The main result is that the golden rule equilibrium (GRE) is Pareto optimal (in the classical sense) in an overlapping generations (OG) model with constant-returns-to-scale production, transfers, arbitrary life-time productivity and homogeneous instantaneous felicity. In addition, we extend Cass and Yaari's equivalence between efficiency (aggregate consumption dominance) and present value dominance (with evaluation made using a candidate equilibrium price path).

The conventional dependency ratio based on cohort-invariant cutoff points could overstate the true burden of population aging. Using optimal cohort-varying years of schooling and retirement age in a life-cycle model, we propose a modified definition of dependency ratio. We compare the proposed economic-demographic dependency ratio (EDDR) with the conventional definition and find that the conventional dependency ratio of the USA is projected to increase by 0.105 from 2010 to 2060, which is an over-projection of 86% when compared with the projected increase of 0.015 in the EDDR over the same period. Sensitivity analysis suggests that our finding is quite robust to reasonable changes in parameter values (except for one parameter), and the magnitude of over-projection ranges mainly from 0.079 to 0.102 (i.e., 75% to 97%). We follow the well-established Lee–Carter model to forecast stochastic mortality and employ the method of expanding duration to decompose the sources of over-projection.

This paper studies the effects of China’s one-child policy on human capital and income. I build and calibrate a quantitative OLG model with intergenerational transfers. The model generates a quantity–quality trade-off, so a restriction on fertility leads to an increase in human capital, and higher human capital then contributes to higher individual income and welfare. Calibrating the model to match survey data on urban households, I find that the one-child policy increases the human capital of affected agents by about 47% relative to a counterfactual with no fertility restrictions. However, the effect on aggregate income is negative as the size of the labor force falls.

This paper is the first part of a two-part survey reviewing some basic concepts and methods of the modern theory of dynamical systems. The survey is introduced by a preliminary discussion of the relevance of nonlinear dynamics and chaos for economics. We then discuss the dynamic behavior of nonlinear systems of difference and differential equations such as those commonly employed in the analysis of economically motivated models. Part I of the survey focuses on the geometrical properties of orbits. In particular, we discuss the notion of attractor and the different types of attractors generated by discrete- and continuous-time dynamical systems, such as fixed and periodic points, limit cycles, quasiperiodic and chaotic attractors. The notions of (noninteger) fractal dimension and Lyapunov characteristic exponent also are explained, as well as the main routes to chaos.

This paper examines the relationships of income with education and health using heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques to account for the potential cross-country heterogeneity in the effects of education and health. Our main results are: (i) education and health are, on average, income-enhancing; (ii) for different schooling levels, although primary education lowers income, both secondary and tertiary education raise income with larger impacts for the former than the latter, on average; (iii) there is considerable heterogeneity in the effects of education and health on income across countries; and (iv) the effect of education (health) on income tends to be greater (smaller) in countries with higher levels of development, greater (less) trade openness, less abundant natural resources, less corruption, higher levels of democracy, and a more homogeneous society.

This paper builds a theoretical framework for studying migration and education in developing countries. Migration and education decisions are affected by migrants' wealth constraints. Technology and migration costs determine the pattern of migration through level of education, income, and wealth inequality. The model predicts that in the first stages of technological development, migration rates increase, as does economic inequality over time, for high migration costs. At more advanced stages of development, migration rates and wealth inequality decline. I show that these predictions are in line with the data.

This study explores the linkage between the labor force participation of the elderly and the long-run performance of the economy in the context of a two-period-lived overlapping generations model. We assume that the old agents are heterogeneous in their labor efficiency and they continue working if their income exceeds the pension that can be received in the case of full retirement. We first inspect the key factors that determine the retirement decision of the elderly. We then examine analytically as well as numerically the long-run impact of labor participation of the elderly on capital accumulation and income distribution.

This paper proposes a simple theory to explain the productivity slowdown observed in Japan during the 1990s. Under a forbearance policy by the government toward nonperforming loans, one keeping insolvent firms afloat, other economic agents become exposed to a higher risk of not being paid by their customers (payment uncertainty). It is shown that the payment uncertainty, working through a competitive market, causes an endogenous decline in the number of firms that are involved in the production of one good. Resulting disruptions of the division of labor among firms lower macroeconomic productivity. The performance of the model is compared with that of the Japanese economy in the 1990s.

This paper compares the stochastic behavior of fiscal variables under optimal fiscal policy for the cases of full commitment by the government (Ramsey problem) and no commitment by the government (focusing on differentiable Markov perfect equilibrium). It shows that the cyclical properties of fiscal variables are similar for both commitment assumptions. These conclusions are robust to two different specifications of the structure of public bonds (risk-free and state-contingent) and to different sets of the parameters. The cyclical properties of fiscal variables, regardless of commitment assumptions, can be determined by the parameters of the utility function.

I investigate a simple continuous-time overlapping generations model with a neoclassical production function. I demonstrate that the degree of wealth inequality is positively related to the difference between the real interest rate r and the growth rate of income g, and if g falls, the r – g gap widens and inequality worsens. I also argue that a wealth tax reduces the wealth inequality. All these results are consistent with the famous predictions advanced by Thomas Piketty in Capital in the Twenty-First Century (2014).

When the financial positions of pension funds worsen, regulations prescribe that pension funds reduce the gap between their assets (invested contributions) and their liabilities (accumulated pension promises). This paper quantifies the business cycle effects and distributional implications of various types of restoration policies. We extend a canonical New-Keynesian model with a tractable demographic structure and, as a novelty, a flexible pension fund framework. Fund participants accumulate inflation-indexed or non-indexed benefits and funding adequacy is restored by revaluing previously accumulated pension wealth (Defined Contribution (DC)) or changing the pension fund contribution rate on labor income (Defined Benefit (DB)). Economies with DC pension funds respond similarly to adverse capital quality shocks as economies without pension funds. DB pension funds, however, distort labor supply decisions and exacerbate economic fluctuations. While DB pension funds achieve intergenerational risk-sharing, welfare analyses indicate that the negative effects of the induced distortions are sizeable.

Building on the theoretical prediction that income tax progressivity increases the speed of convergence in neoclassical, open-economy growth models, this paper asks whether tax progressivity is a potential source of differences across regions in convergence rates. In a sample of U.S. data, over the period 1920–1990, regional convergence and tax progressivity are found to be positively correlated, which supports the theoretical results. Moreover, some data on six OECD countries also accord with such a positive relationship. Overall, the model is successful in predicting the large range of available convergence estimates when the tax rate is elastic enough with respect to the tax base.

We identify international output and inflation uncertainty and analyze their impact on individual countries' macroeconomic performance. Output and inflation uncertainty on an international level is measured through the conditional variances of common factors in inflation and output growth, estimated from a bivariate dynamic factor model with GARCH errors. The impact of international and country-specific uncertainty is analyzed by including the conditional variances as regressors. We find increases in uncertainty during the first and second oil crisis, the 1980s and 1990s recessions as well as the recent Great Recession to be confined to the international level. The effect of international uncertainty results to be highly significant and unambiguously negative on countries' output growth and inflation rates whereas the impact of country-specific uncertainty is very mixed.

This paper presents a model of development that is driven by matching between talents and technologies. Differences in productivity across countries are amplified by three dimensions of talent utilization: the range of talents utilized, the density of a specific talent utilized, and the average match quality in the economy. In our model, higher productivity increases the number of technologies available, enhancing the opportunities for individuals to match their talents to specific technologies and increasing the returns to search. More intensive search further contributes to talent utilization.