This paper emphasizes the use of data-driven techniques to discern trends in commodity prices. Whereas many previous papers rely on parametric assumptions, we take as our departure point the view that such trends are inherently nonparametric, driven by complex forces of innovation and obsolescence, competition and strategic behavior, resource depletion and discovery, and supply and demand. Our reference specification is the partial linear model yt = f(t) + ztβ + ϵt where macroeconomic variables z enter parametrically, and f is nonparametric, to be discovered using cross-validation.

We analyze data on 11 commodities—3 hydrocarbons and 8 metals. For the majority of these commodities, our data-driven estimates of f bear close similarity to band pass estimates which include long term trends and super cycles. The OPEC effect is estimated to have increased oil prices by over 50% on average and coal prices by about 25%. U.S. coal mining legislation is estimated to have increased coal prices by 9% to 15%.

This paper studies how model uncertainty influences economic fluctuation when trend inflation is high. We introduce Hansen and Sargent’s [(2008) Robustness, Princeton University Press] robust control techniques into a New Keynesian model with non-zero trend inflation. We reveal the following three points. First, we find that robust monetary policy responds more aggressively. This aggressiveness increases with trend inflation. Second, as the trend inflation rises, the response of macroeconomic variables is larger under robust policy. Third, stronger robustness tends to lead to indeterminate equilibrium as trend inflation increases. Consequently, the economy might be volatile when trend inflation is high due to robustness from the view of both variance and determinacy. We interpret the results as indicating that the model uncertainty might be the one of the factors causing large macroeconomic fluctuations when trend inflation is high.

We examine the effect of sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) trading initiation on the occurrence of sovereign debt crises (SDC). Estimations on a large sample of 141 countries for 1980–2013 reveal that, by affecting the fiscal stance, CDS initiation increases by around 1.5 percentage points on average the probability of SDC in countries with CDS compared to the other countries. This result holds for different robustness tests and is found to be stronger for developing countries, for countries with initial lower creditworthiness, and when the degrees of central bank independence and public sector transparency are low. Consequently, compared to existing work emphasizing favorable effects, CDS trading initiation is found to have adverse effects, by increasing the occurrence of SDC. These opposite effects should fuel the literature on measuring the consequences of CDS trading initiation, and its design and implementation from a policy perspective.

Models of the exchange process based on search theory can be used to analyze the features of objects that make them more or less likely to emerge as money in equilibrium. These models illustrate the trade-off between endogenous acceptability (an equilibrium property) and intrinsic characteristics of goods, such as storability or recognizability. We look at how the relative supply and demand for various goods affect their likelihood of becoming money. Intuitively, goods in high demand and/or low supply are more likely to appear as commodity money, subject to the qualification that which object ends up circulating as a medium of exchange depends at least partly on convention. Welfare properties and fiat money are discussed.

The choice between private and government provision of a productive public good like infrastructure (public capital) is examined in the context of an endogenously growing open economy. The accumulation of public capital need not require government provision, in contrast to the standard assumption in the literature. Even with an efficient government, the relative costs and benefits of government and private provision depend crucially on the economy's underlying structural conditions and borrowing constraints in international capital markets. Countries with limited substitution possibilities and large production externalities may benefit from governments encouraging private provision of public capital through targeted investment subsidies. By contrast, countries with flexible substitution possibilities and relatively smaller externalities may benefit either from governments directly providing public capital or from regulation of private providers. The transitional dynamics also are shown to depend on the underlying elasticity of substitution and the size of the production externality.

We use daily short-term interbank interest rates of France, the United Kingdom, and the United States to examine the dynamic links of international monetary markets from 2004 to 2009. Results from vector error-correction models and smooth-transition error-correction models show strong evidence of nonlinear and heterogeneous causalities between the three interest rates. We also find that changes in the U.S. interest rate deviations from the long-run equilibrium led those in France and in the United Kingdom by one to two days. Finally, the national interest rate nexus appears to converge in nonlinear fashion toward a steady state because it is subject to structural change beyond a certain rate threshold. Our findings have important implications for the actions of leading central banks (ECB, Bank of England, and U.S. Fed) because the joint behavior of short-term interest rates can be viewed as an indicator of the degree of central banks' policy interdependence.

This paper proposes a sunspot-based mechanism that quantitatively accounts for the main monetary facts. In particular, we propose a cash-in-advance model with habit persistence and local durability in consumption decisions. In this context, when habit persistence is strong enough, there is real indeterminacy. We show that when sunspots positively correlate with money injections, the model generates a persistent response of inflation, a hump-shaped response of output, and the price puzzle. We then apply the model to the U.S data and we show that it performs well in reproducing the monetary transmission mechanism and the price puzzle in the short run.

In a Markov switching framework, we show that the duration of recessions is significantly shorter than the duration of expansions in 11 manufacturing sectors, and in aggregate durables and manufacturing output. We find two leading indicators, consumer expectations and the term spread, act as important demand-driven forces behind asymmetry.

An asset market segmentation model is constructed to study the distributional effects of monetary policy when economic individuals can choose means of payment among alternatives. In equilibrium, monetary policy has two distributional effects: a direct effect and an indirect effect through the choice of means of payment. When the government injects money, some purchase a greater variety of goods with cash whereas others purchase a greater variety of goods with credit. Credit can dampen fluctuations in consumption arising from monetary policy. The optimal money growth rate can be positive or negative. The Friedman rule is not optimal in general.

The paper examines a stochastic analogue of the Polterovich model of economic dynamics. The study focuses on the asymptotic properties of equilibrium paths. The main results are stochastic turnpike theorems with exponential estimates of the convergence rate.

In this paper we study optimal policies in an environment where search frictions both in labor and goods markets give rise to unemployment and fiat money, as in Berentsen, Menzio, and Wright (American Economic Review, 2011). The underlying frictions that give rise to endogenous unemployment and fiat money also result in inefficient outcomes. Here we show that efficiency can be restored whenever lump sum monetary transfers are possible and a decentralized production subsidy financed by money printing and a vacancy subsidy financed by a dividend tax exist. This is the case even when the Hosios and Friedman rules do not hold.

Emerging economies that have adopted inflation targeting and that combine low credibility, high public debt, and a high interest rate suffer from a typical problem. Increases in the interest rate to reduce departures of inflation from the target imply that a higher primary surplus is required for stabilizing public debt/GDP ratio. This tricky situation is known as “unpleasant fiscal arithmetic” (UFA). This article develops a theoretical model showing how increased financial openness and capital account liberalization can mitigate UFA. Furthermore, empirical evidence from the Brazilian case through OLS, GMM, and GMM system methods is offered. The findings show that increases in capital mobility and financial openness work as a commitment technology, which contributes to the success of the inflation targeting and thus reduces the risk of UFA.

This paper examines the effects of fiscal devaluations in a model of a monetary union characterized by national fiscal policies and supranational monetary policy. We show that a revenue-neutral permanent tax shift in one country, which raises its consumption tax to finance a cut to labor taxes, increases welfare of the monetary union in the long run. The distribution of gains among countries depends on their degree of financial integration. We also document that price rigidities result in short-run welfare costs.

We study the implications of changes in the mix of taxes, public spending, and public finance in the Eurozone. In so doing, we build a general equilibrium OLG model that naturally incorporates all the main categories of public spending and taxes. We focus on the medium- and long-run implications of permanent reforms in the actual policy mix. When we depart from 2008, the best way out of the recession would be an increase in public spending on education and health and in turn cuts in distorting taxes including social security contributions. When we depart from the year 2017, which features a higher inherited public debt, public debt consolidation becomes the superior reform to the extent that the focus is on the medium and long run.

This article questions the rather pessimistic conclusions of Allen and Carroll [Macroeconomic Dynamics 5 (2001), 255–271] about the ability of consumers to learn the optimal buffer-stock-based consumption rule. To this end, we develop an agent-based model in which alternative learning schemes can be compared in terms of the consumption behavior that they yield. We show that neither purely adaptive learning nor social learning based on imitation can ensure satisfactory consumption behavior. In contrast, if the agents can form adaptive expectations, based on an evolving individual mental model, their behavior becomes much more interesting in terms of its regularity and its ability to improve performance (which is a clear manifestation of learning). Our results indicate that assumptions on bounded rationality and on adaptive expectations are perfectly compatible with sound and realistic economic behavior, which, in some cases, can even converge to the optimal solution. This framework may therefore be used to develop macroeconomic models with adaptive dynamics.

This paper contributes to explaining the obesity epidemic and finding a potential remedy. We build a theoretical model of food consumption decisions that accounts for social influence. In our model, individuals’ rationality is affected by an endogenous social weight norm, which influences their calorie consciousness and perceived survival chances. Individuals are conformist, and the degree of conformism describes the extent to which individuals’ discounted utility is influenced by the social weight norm. With an endogenous social weight norm reflecting a heavier and heavier average body weight, we show that a high degree of conformism to the social norm could explain the obesity epidemic. In this environment, a government intervention decreasing energy density is ineffective at reducing steady-state body weight. This result could explain why this type of government dietary intervention seems to have had no effect on obesity, and suggests that the same type of intervention through the Food Stamps Program would be ineffective on its own. We also find that in the steady state, individuals can be overweight or underweight depending on their degree of conformism relative to the education they receive about the healthy weight. While education programs focusing on either diet or exercise have had moderate success, we show that focusing on healthy weight education could combat social influence and reduce obesity.

This paper replaces increasing product variety with quality upgrading in the Romer model [Romer, Paul M., Journal of Political Economy 98 (1990), S71–S102]. We show that the range of parameters for which a steady state exists can be divided into two subspaces with well-behaved comparative statics and saddle-point dynamics in one subspace, but with “perverse” comparative-statics properties and either equilibrium indeterminacy or instability in the other subspace. These results for the closed economy can also be used to characterize the dynamics of the M-country open-economy version of the model.

Consumption Euler equations are important tools in empirical macroeconomics. When estimated on micro data, they are typically linearized, so standard IV or GMM methods can be employed to deal with the measurement error that is endemic to survey data. However, linearization, in turn, may induce serious approximation bias. We numerically solve and simulate six different life-cycle models, and then use the simulated data as the basis for a series of Monte Carlo experiments in which we evaluate the performance of linearized Euler equation estimation. We sample from the simulated data in ways that mimic realistic data structures. The linearized Euler equation leads to biased estimates of the EIS, but that bias is modest when there is a sufficient time dimension to the data, and sufficient variation in interest rates. However, a sufficient time dimension can only realistically be achieved with a synthetic cohort. Estimates from synthetic cohorts of sufficient length, while often exhibiting small mean bias, are quite imprecise. We also show that in all data structures, estimates are less precise in impatient models.

We provide aggregate macroeconomic evidence on how, in the long run, a diverse degree of complexity in production may affect not only the rate of economic growth, but also the correlation between the latter, population growth and the monopolistic (intermediate) markups. For a sample of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, we find that the impact of population change on economic growth is slightly positive. According to our theoretical model, this implies that the losses due to more complexity in production are lower than the corresponding specialization gains. Using a finite mixture model, we also classify the countries in the sample and verify for each cluster the impact that the population growth rate and the intermediate sector’s markups exert on the 5-year average real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate.

Using a panel of 54 countries between 1980 and 2013, we find empirical support for the view that changes in the fiscal policy stance (year-on-year change in the cyclically adjusted primary balance) have a significant positive correlation with inflation volatility. An increase in the volatility of discretionary fiscal policies by one standard deviation raises inflation volatility by about 6%. Moreover, results using alternative inflation volatility proxies confirm that an expansionary fiscal stance increases price volatility. Another relevant outcome is that in a context of economic expansions (recessions) the harmful impact of fiscal activism on price volatility is soft (heightened), while the negative impact of fiscal activism on price stability is higher when fiscal policy is expansionary. Finally, fiscal activism fuels inflation volatility much more pronouncedly in emerging market economies vis-à-vis advanced economies.