We generalize a money-in-the-utility function model to include interest-bearing deposits and use the model to estimate the welfare cost of inflation. In the model, the user cost of deposits is invariant to inflation in steady state. Currency and deposits are assumed to be weakly separable and the model is calibrated using index number methods. We find that the welfare cost of inflation is substantially lower in the model with interest-bearing deposits than in models where all monetary assets are assumed to be non-interest bearing. We also show that higher inflation can raise or lower the rate of convergence to steady state depending on the coefficient of relative risk aversion, but the effect is weak. We provide evidence for OECD countries suggesting that there could be a positive effect of inflation on user costs, which would lead to higher welfare cost estimates.

We present a method for using rational expectations in a linear-quadratic optimization framework. Following the approach put forward by Sims, we solve the model through a QZ decomposition, which is generally easier to implement than the more widely used Blanchard-Kahn method.

The paper presents an agent-based model reproducing a stylized credit network that evolves endogenously through the individual choices of firms and banks. We introduce in this framework a financial stability authority in order to test the effects of different prudential policy measures designed to improve the resilience of the economic system. Simulations show that a combination of micro- and macroprudential policies reduces systemic risk but at the cost of increasing banks’ capital volatility. Moreover, the agent-based methodology allows us to implement an alternative meso regulatory framework that takes into consideration the connections between firms and banks. This policy targets only the more connected banks, increasing their capital requirement in order to reduce the diffusion of local shocks. Our results support the idea that the mesoprudential policy is able to reduce systemic risk without affecting the stability of banks’ capital structure.

Despite the important role that total factor productivity (TFP) has played in the growth literature, few attempts have been made to change the methodology to estimate it. This paper proposes a methodology based on a state-space model to estimate TFP and its determinants. With this methodology, it is possible to reduce the measurement of our ignorance. As a by-product, this estimate yields the capital share in output and the long-term growth rate. When applied to Chile, the estimation shows a capital share around 0.5 and long-term growth of TFP around 1%. Capital accumulation tends to explain the growth rate in the fast growth periods under the econometric estimation more than the traditional growth accounting methodology.

This paper argues that the marked reduction in the burden of parasitic and infectious diseases (PID) together with improved nutrition over the past two centuries in today's advanced countries has resulted in markedly improved physiological capital and cognitive skills and, consequently, in productivity advances. Using a unique annual dataset covering the period 1800–2011 for 21 OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, it is found that health improvements can account for approximately a third of the productivity advances in the OECD countries since 1865, and that these improvements have been influential for enhancement in education, savings, innovations, life expectancy, and democracy.

Vote-buying is widely used by parties in developing countries to influence the outcome of elections. We examine the impact of vote-buying on growth. We consider a model with a poverty trap where redistribution can promote growth. We show that vote-buying contributes to the persistence of poverty as taxed wealthy people buy votes from poor people. We then show that there exists a democratic constitution that breaks vote-buying and promotes growth. Such a constitution involves rotating agenda setting, a taxpayer-protection rule, and repeated voting. The latter rule makes vote-buying prohibitively costly.

We consider a model in which foreign and domestic traders buy the assets of both of two countries. Speculators in both countries use chartist or fundamentalist rules for forecasting the exchange rate. Demand for the assets of each country is determined by these forecasts. Perceptions of the fundamentals in each country are not necessarily the same. Rules are used with a certain probability depending on an agent's previous experience with them. The demands of the fundamentalist and chartist agents in the two countries determine the temporary equilibrium exchange rate at each point in time. This is unique under certain assumptions. With traders of both nationalities there is no need, as in other models, for an exogenous supply of foreign exchange. The model produces realistic features of the equilibrium exchange rate series. Periods in which the exchange rate tracks the fundamentals of one of the countries alternate with others in which bubbles appear.

Even for the standard skill-biased technological change (SBTC) literature, the generic rise in the skill premium in the face of the relative increase in skilled workers since the 1980s seems a little puzzling. We develop a general equilibrium SBTC growth model that allows the dominance of either the price channel or the market-size channel mechanism through which network spillovers affect the technological-knowledge bias and, thus, the paths of intra-country wage inequality. The proposed mechanisms can accommodate facts not explained by the earlier literature.

This paper investigates the possible formation of informational cascades by traders in a random sample of 8,000 NYSE stock-days experiencing extreme price changes during 1998–2001. Our cascade measure is designed to detect informational cascades in high-frequency stock market prices. First, we find evidence of cascades on approximately 12% of the days when the NYSE experiences, on average, large price increases. This percentage increases to about 20% on days experiencing large price decreases, on average. Second, we find evidence that the interarrival times of trades in those stocks exhibiting significant informational cascades are generated by a nonlinear stochastic process. Third, the evidence supporting cascades is largely confined to smaller stocks and to stocks followed by fewer security analysts. Last, the occurrence of cascades appears to correlate with the incorporation of fundamental information into security prices.

In contrast to the standard approach in energy economics, this paper assumes that physical capital accumulation is relatively more energy-intensive than consumption. By means of Gaussian hypergeometric functions, we provide a closed-form representation of the optimal solution paths of our variables in levels, whatever the initial conditions (i.e., global dynamics). We find that, in general, the optimal trajectories are nonmonotonic. P.S. Dasgupta and G.M. Heal [Review of Economic Studies (special number), 3–28 (1974)] pointed out this result (local dynamics) for the optimal consumption in a model with identical technology for both physical capital accumulation and consumption. However, our paper introduces five novelties with respect to their study, namely, global dynamics, the importance of the proportion of nonrenewable energy resources to endowment of physical capital [S(0)/K(0)], the role of technical progress, U-shaped behavior of consumption, and nonmonotonicity of resource extraction.

This paper characterizes the global dynamics of the saving rate in the neoclassical growth model with CES production. The study is based on qualitative phase-diagram analysis. The analytical conditions characterizing the cases that may arise theoretically depending on the parameters' configuration are obtained. It is well known that the saving rate behaves monotonically if technology is Cobb-Douglas. However, when the elasticity of substitution is nonunitary, the saving rate path may exhibit nonmonotonic behavior.

We assess the effects of financial shocks on inflation, and to what extent financial shocks can account for the “missing disinflation” during the Great Recession. We apply a Bayesian vector autoregressive model to US data and identify financial shocks through a combination of narrative and short-run sign restrictions. Our main finding is that contractionary financial shocks temporarily increase inflation. This result withstands a large battery of robustness checks. Negative financial shocks help therefore to explain why inflation did not drop more sharply in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Our analysis suggests that higher borrowing costs after negative financial shocks can account for the modest decrease in inflation after the financial crisis. A policy implication is that financial shocks act as supply-type shocks, moving output and inflation in opposite directions, thereby worsening the trade-off for a central bank with a dual mandate.

This paper investigates how the inclusion of capital in the workhorse new open economy macro model affects its ability to generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates. We show that capital accumulation facilitates intertemporal consumption smoothing and significantly reduces the volatility of the real exchange rate. Nonetheless, monetary and investment-specific technology (IST) shocks still induce more real exchange rate volatility and less consumption comovement than productivity shocks (with or without capital). We find that endogenous persistence is particularly sensitive to the inertia of the monetary policy rule even with persistent exogenous shocks. However, irrespective of whether capital is present, productivity and IST shocks trigger highly persistent real exchange rates, whereas monetary shocks do not. Moreover, we point out that IST shocks tend to generate countercyclical real exchange rates—unlike productivity or monetary shocks—but have the counterfactual effect of also producing excessive investment volatility and countercyclical consumption.

Can officially reported output figures be externally validated? This paper presents a dynamic panel framework for assessing statistics using verifiable signals of economic activity. In this context, satellite readings of nitrogen dioxide, a byproduct of combustion, are forwarded. The problem of validating China's reported gross domestic product at the sub-national level during two recent downturns is considered. During the Great Recession period, reported figures are validated for some regions, but not others, including specifically those known to be inaccurate.

To explain the high and persistent unemployment rate in the United States during and after the Great Recession, this effort develops and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with search and matching frictions and shocks to unemployment benefits and matching efficiency. It finds that unemployment benefits play an important role in the cyclical movement of unemployment through their effects on labor demand, a channel overlooked in previous studies. From the second half of 2008 to 2011, extended unemployment benefits may have increased the overall unemployment rate by one percentage point. In contrast, matching efficiency changes had less effect on the cyclical movement of unemployment for the same period, but significantly slowed down the recovery after 2012.

By endowing his agents with simple forecasting models, or representations, M. Woodford (“Learning to Believe in Sunspots,” Econometrica 58, 277–307, 1990) found that finite state Markov sunspot equilibria may be stable under learning. We show that common factor representations generalize to all sunspot equilibria the representations used by Woodford. We find that if finite state Markov sunspots are stable under learning then all sunspots are stable under learning, provided common factor representations are used.

This paper examines an infinite-horizon model of nonlinear income taxation in which the probability that the government can commit is high, but not certain. In this “loose commitment” environment, we find that even a little uncertainty over whether the government can commit yields substantial effects on the optimal dynamic nonlinear income tax system. This result holds even though separating taxation remains optimal, as in the case of full commitment. Under an empirically plausible parameterization, our numerical simulations show that high-skilled individuals must be subsidized in the short run, despite the government's redistributive objective, unless the probability of commitment is higher than 98%. Loose commitment also reverses the short-run welfare effects of changes in most of the model's parameters, and yields some counterintuitive outcomes. For example, all individuals are worse off, rather than better off, in the short run when the proportion of high-skilled individuals in the economy increases.

This study provides an infinite-horizon model of rational bubbles in a production economy. A bubble can arise when the pursuit of status is modeled explicitly, capturing the notion of “the spirit of capitalism.” Using a parameterized model, I demonstrate the specific conditions for the existence of bubbles and their implications. Bubbles crowd out investment, stimulate consumption, and slow economic growth. I also discuss a stochastic bubble that bursts with an exogenous probability. I show that there could be multiple stochastic bubbly equilibria. Moreover, I suggest that taxing wealth properly can eliminate bubbles and achieve the social optimum.

We use robust control to study how a central bank in an economy with imperfect interest rate pass-through conducts monetary policy if it fears that its model could be misspecified. We find that, first, whether robust optimal monetary policy under commitment responds more cautiously or more aggressively depends crucially on the source of shock. Imperfect pass-through amplifies the robust policy. Second, if the central bank is concerned about uncertainty, it dampens volatility in the inflation rate preemptively but accepts higher volatility in the output gap and loan rate. However, for highly sticky loan rates, insurance against model misspecification becomes particularly pricy. Third, if the central bank fears uncertainty only in the IS equation or the loan rate equation, the robust policy shifts its concern for stabilization away from inflation.

“Good policy” and “good luck” have been identified as two of the possible drivers of the “Great Moderation,” but their relative importance is still widely debated. This paper investigates the role played by equilibrium selection under indeterminacy in the assessment of their relative merits. We contrast the outcomes of counterfactual simulations conditional on the “continuity” selection strategy–largely exploited by the literature–with those obtained with a novel “sign restriction” based strategy. Our results suggest that conclusions achieved under “continuity” are not necessarily robust to the selection of different–still economically sensible–equilibria. According to our simulations, the switch to a hawkish systematic monetary policy may very well induce an increase in output volatility. Hence, our sign restriction–selection strategy “resurrects” the inflation–output policy tradeoff.