I develop a dynamic model to investigate how labor mobility impacts firms’ decisions. In the model, firms make investment and financing decisions, hire labor with different skill and mobility levels, and set wages through bargaining. The model predicts that, in response to an increase in labor mobility, high-skill firms operate with lower financial leverage, become less responsive to investment opportunities, and invest at lower rates, while low-skill firms remain unaffected. I confirm these predictions in the data using shocks to workers’ mobility across firms. The results are useful in understanding the effects of labor mobility changes driven by government policies or technological shocks, such as the rise of remote work.

I show that cash distributions through cash mergers, dividend payments, and stock buybacks are, in principle, similar to investor fund flows in generating demand for investable assets. Abnormal returns on certain assets can be forecasted because delegated investors predictably reinvest cash returns toward certain holdings. Novel measures of stock-level demand constructed using proportional reinvestments by mutual funds predict abnormal returns and issuances in noncash-paying stocks. These results highlight an alternative and substantial source of price fluctuations in the cross section of equities.

We derive the optimal underwriting method and the quantitative initial public offering (IPO) pricing rule that this method implies in a market with informational frictions consisting of fully rational banks, issuers, and investors. In an efficient IPO market, an issuer’s expected initial return will be determined entirely by the combination of this pricing rule and issuer fundamentals. Applying this rule, we find that we can explain the quantitative magnitude of the principal aspects of the time-series and cross-sectional variation in IPO average initial returns. We conclude that the IPO market is efficient.

We identify Industry-Neutral Self-Financed Informed Trading (INSFIT) as stock trades financed by offsetting, equivalent dollar-denominated stock trades in the same industry. Approximately 37% of short-term mutual fund trading profits can be attributed to these trade pairs. Consistent with informed trading, INSFIT precedes unusually high media coverage for the underlying stocks. The trades underlying INSFIT are also larger as the release of stock-level news becomes more imminent. Both relative valuation and the hedging of industry exposure motivate INSFIT’s industry neutrality. While INSFIT positively impacts fund performance, active fund managers who execute INSFIT more aggressively obtain smaller trading profits per execution.

We show that merger announcement returns account for virtually all of the measured size premium. An empirical proxy for ex ante takeover exposure positively and robustly relates to cross-sectional expected returns. The relation between size and expected returns becomes positive or insignificant, rather than negative, conditional on this takeover characteristic. Asset pricing models that include a factor based on the takeover characteristic outperform otherwise similar models that include the conventional size factor. We conclude that the takeover factor should replace the conventional size factor in benchmark asset pricing models.

This article examines the severity of the 2008 arbitrage crash in the convertible bond market by estimating how expensive it would have been to liquidate portfolio securities immediately. We consider whether funds actually demanded immediate liquidity or were able to delay trades. Our results indicate that the cost of immediacy was high, but that convertible bond sellers could largely avoid selling at fire sale prices. These results can be explained by dealers recognizing when trades are liquidity-motivated rather than information-based and by a shift to riskless principal trading, allowing dealers to avoid taking bonds into inventory.

We use a novel experiment in China to examine the effects of having a quasi-official investor own a small number of shares on specific firm outcomes. We find that, relative to control firms, pilot firms experience an increase in dissenting votes from independent directors, a reduction in tunneling and earnings management activities, and an improvement in merger performance. Independent directors questioned by the quasi-official shareholder in activism events subsequently lose board seats in the director market. Overall, our results shed light on a new mechanism for enhancing the protection of minority shareholders.

Bradford Cornell's paper develops a small, but important result for the literature on currency of denomination of international trade contracts. The selection of a contract currency determines which party will bear exchange risk in addition to inflation risk. The contract currency problem in international trade is therefore closely related to other contracting issues, such as the pricing of nominal bonds under inflation uncertainty. More graphically, exchange risk can be illustrated by a difference in the units ofaccount of income and consumption streams. For example, if an agent produces only corn and consumes only wheat, he faces an exchange risk if the price of wheat relative to cornis uncertain.

This paper develops an equilibrium factor pricing theory when investors have heterogeneous beliefs about asset payoffs generated by the Ross linear factor model. Investors receive private information about the unknown parameters of the payoff process. They use this private information and equilibrium prices to predict asset payoffs. The paper develops a closed form price function for a noisy rational expectations equilibrium and relates it to the general solution. Even though we allow for a large number of investors, diversity of beliefs and parameter uncertainty both persist in equilibrium. We show that investors' beliefs about expected payoffs are approximately linear in the asset's betas, thus establishing the APT. As investors prefer to hold high information assets in equilibrium, the relative weight of these assets in the APT pricing bound is higher. The reverse is true for low information assets.

During the past two decades, corporate managements have been increasingly Interested in growth through mergers and acquisitions. This external growth trend has been accompanied by the development of several merger strategies and philosophies. As a result, merger literature is frequently concerned with concepts such as price-earnings ratio strategy [13] and merger synergy. Synergy may be operational (e.g., the development of marketing or production economies) and/or financial in nature. Although financial synergy may produce “real” benefits (e.g., a lower cost of capital or increased cash flows), it is the general custom today to associate financial synergy with temporary [8], pecuniary [10], or instantaneous [9] earnings per share benefits.

Two general methods of computing the rate of return on common stock are being discussed widely. These methods are the internal rate of return and the geometric mean of the annual rates of return. The Gordon-Shapiro formulation, , is the best known model of the former type.

We hypothesize that corporate takeover markets create significant constraints for short sellers. Both short sellers and corporate bidders often target firms with declining economic prospects. Yet, a target firm’s stock price generally increases upon a takeover announcement, resulting in losses for short sellers. Therefore, short sellers should require higher rates of return when the takeover likelihood is higher. Consistent with this prediction, the return predictability of monthly short interest increases with industry-level takeover probability and decreases as takeover defenses are implemented. Our results suggest that efficient takeover markets create trading frictions for short sellers and can therefore inhibit overall market efficiency.

We consider a model in which the correlation between shocks to consumption and to expected future consumption growth is nonzero and varies over time. We validate this assumption empirically using the model’s implication that time variation in consumption growth persistence (CGP) drives the correlation between stock and bond returns. Our model implies that the stock–bond correlation is also related to the predictive relation between bond yields and future stock returns. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence that asset price fluctuations are the primary driver of changes in CGP.

An assimilation bias occurs when people’s evaluative judgment is positively influenced by a previously observed signal. We study this effect by examining investors’ appraisal of M&A deals announced 1 day after other firms in the same 1-digit SIC as the merging parties release earnings surprises. Consistent with assimilation effects, acquirers’ M&A announcement stock return initially correlates with the previous day’s earnings surprises. This effect reverses after 1 week. Assimilation generates other distortions as more positive surprises are related to increases in bid competition, takeover premiums, and withdrawn M&As. Evidence from IPOs corroborates the presence of assimilation effects in financial markets.

Recovering an Asset's Implied PDF from Option Prices: An Application to Crude Oil During the Gulf Crisis William R. Melick and Charles P. Thomas Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis Vol. 32, 1997, pp. 91-115

The recent world-wide increase in consumer prices has created an intense interest in inflation on the part of both the academic and the financial communities. For example, in his American Financial Association presidential address, Professor Lintner [4, p. 259] states “few matters are of more serious concern to students of finance and to members of the financial community than the impacts of inflation on our financial institutions and markets and its implication for investment policy.”

An unintended consequence of recent governance reforms in the United States is firms’ greater reliance on older director candidates, resulting in noticeable board aging. We investigate this phenomenon’s implications for corporate governance. We document that older independent directors exhibit poorer board meeting attendance, are less likely to serve on or chair key board committees, and receive less shareholder support in annual elections. These directors are associated with weaker board oversight in acquisitions, CEO turnovers, executive compensation, and financial reporting. However, they can also provide particularly valuable advice when they have specialized experience or when firms have greater advisory needs.

We show that the dividend growth rate implied by the options market is informative about i) the expected dividend growth rate and ii) the expected dividend risk premium. We model the expected dividend risk premium and explore its implications for the predictability of dividend growth and stock market returns. Correcting for the expected dividend risk premium strengthens the evidence for the predictability of dividend growth and stock market returns both in and out of sample. Economically, a market-timing investor who accounts for the time-varying expected dividend risk premium realizes an additional utility gain of 2.02% per year.

The increase in corporate liquidity over the past ten years, together with higher levels of interest rates and growing sophistication among corporate treasurers and bank portfolio managers, have contributed to the increasing importance of various money-market instruments. The relative position of the Treasury bill has declined, and bank time certificates of deposits, short-term issues of municipalities, and commercial paper have assumed greater importance. The fundamental reason for the attractiveness of alternatives to Treasury bills is, of course, the additional yield that the investor can obtain in the substitute instruments. The differential yield spread over Treasury bills can be explained substantially by two factors—the difference in marketability and the existence of some default risk on the alternative securities.

This study analyzes meetings of firms with policymakers at the European Commission (EC). Meetings with Commissioners are associated with positive abnormal equity returns for U.S. firms. Firms of the European Union (EU), however, do not experience significant value increases. We identify regulatory outcomes as a channel that can rationalize this difference in value effects of political access. U.S. firms with meetings are more likely to receive favorable decisions in their EC merger decisions than their EU peers. The results suggest that cross-border political access can alleviate uncertainties and alleged discriminatory behavior of regulators in foreign markets.