In this paper we integrate two strands of the literature on stability of general state Markov chains: conventional, total-variation-based results and more recent order-theoretic results. First we introduce a complete metric over Borel probability measures based on ‘partial’ stochastic dominance. We then show that many conventional results framed in the setting of total variation distance have natural generalizations to the partially ordered setting when this metric is adopted.

The convex hull of a sample is used to approximate the support of the underlying distribution. This approximation has many practical implications in real life. To approximate the distribution of the functionals of convex hulls, asymptotic theory plays a crucial role. Unfortunately most of the asymptotic results are computationally intractable. To address this computational intractability, we consider consistent bootstrapping schemes for certain cases. Let $S_n=\{X_i\}_{i=1}^{n}$ be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random points uniformly distributed on an unknown convex set in $\mathbb{R}^{d}$ ($d\ge 2$ ). We suggest a bootstrapping scheme that relies on resampling uniformly from the convex hull of $S_n$ . Moreover, the resampling asymptotic consistency of certain functionals of convex hulls is derived under this bootstrapping scheme. In particular, we apply our bootstrapping technique to the Hausdorff distance between the actual convex set and its estimator. For $d=2$ , we investigate the asymptotic consistency of the suggested bootstrapping scheme for the area of the symmetric difference and the perimeter difference between the actual convex set and its estimate. In all cases the consistency allows us to rely on the suggested resampling scheme to study the actual distributions, which are not computationally tractable.

We study a Markovian agent-based model (MABM) in this paper. Each agent is endowed with a local state that changes over time as the agent interacts with its neighbours. The neighbourhood structure is given by a graph. Recently, Simon, Taylor, and Kiss [40] used the automorphisms of the underlying graph to generate a lumpable partition of the joint state space, ensuring Markovianness of the lumped process for binary dynamics. However, many large random graphs tend to become asymmetric, rendering the automorphism-based lumping approach ineffective as a tool of model reduction. In order to mitigate this problem, we propose a lumping method based on a notion of local symmetry, which compares only local neighbourhoods of vertices. Since local symmetry only ensures approximate lumpability, we quantify the approximation error by means of the Kullback–Leibler divergence rate between the original Markov chain and a lifted Markov chain. We prove the approximation error decreases monotonically. The connections to fibrations of graphs are also discussed.

Based on a simple object, an i.i.d. sequence of positive integer-valued random variables {an}n∊ℤ, we introduce and study two random structures and their connections. First, a population dynamics, in which each individual is born at time n and dies at time n + an. This dynamics is that of a D/GI/∞ queue, with arrivals at integer times and service times given by {an}n∊ℤ. Second, the directed random graph Tf on ℤ generated by the random map f(n) = n + an. Assuming only that E [a0] < ∞ and P [a0 = 1] > 0, we show that, in steady state, the population dynamics is regenerative, with one individual alive at each regeneration epoch. We identify a unimodular structure in this dynamics. More precisely, Tf is a unimodular directed tree, in which f(n) is the parent of n. This tree has a unique bi-infinite path. Moreover, Tf splits the integers into two categories: ephemeral integers, with a finite number of descendants of all degrees, and successful integers, with an infinite number. Each regeneration epoch is a successful individual such that all integers less than it are its descendants of some order. Ephemeral, successful, and regeneration integers form stationary and mixing point processes on ℤ.

A family of generalized ageing intensity functions of univariate absolutely continuous lifetime random variables is introduced and studied. They allow the analysis and measurement of the ageing tendency from various points of view. Some of these generalized ageing intensities characterize families of distributions dependent on a single parameter, while others determine distributions uniquely. In particular, it is shown that the elasticity functions of various transformations of distributions that appear in lifetime analysis and reliability theory uniquely characterize the parent distribution. Moreover, the recognition of the shape of a properly chosen generalized ageing intensity estimate admits a simple identification of the data lifetime distribution.

We study the average nearest-neighbour degree a(k) of vertices with degree k. In many real-world networks with power-law degree distribution, a(k) falls off with k, a property ascribed to the constraint that any two vertices are connected by at most one edge. We show that a(k) indeed decays with k in three simple random graph models with power-law degrees: the erased configuration model, the rank-1 inhomogeneous random graph, and the hyperbolic random graph. We find that in the large-network limit for all three null models, a(k) starts to decay beyond $n^{(\tau-2)/(\tau-1)}$ and then settles on a power law $a(k)\sim k^{\tau-3}$, with $\tau$ the degree exponent.

We present a discrete-type approximation scheme to solve continuous-time optimal stopping problems based on fully non-Markovian continuous processes adapted to the Brownian motion filtration. The approximations satisfy suitable variational inequalities which allow us to construct $\varepsilon$ -optimal stopping times and optimal values in full generality. Explicit rates of convergence are presented for optimal values based on reward functionals of path-dependent stochastic differential equations driven by fractional Brownian motion. In particular, the methodology allows us to design concrete Monte Carlo schemes for non-Markovian optimal stopping time problems as demonstrated in the companion paper by Bezerra et al.

A spatio-temporal model of particle or star growth is defined, whereby new unit masses arrive sequentially in discrete time. These unit masses are referred to as candidate stars, which tend to arrive in mass-dense regions and then either form a new star or are absorbed by some neighbouring star of high mass. We analyse the system as time increases, and derive the asymptotic growth rate of the number of stars as well as the size of a randomly chosen star. We also prove that the size-biased mass distribution converges to a Poisson–Dirichlet distribution. This is achieved by embedding our model into a continuous-time Markov process, so that new stars arrive according to a marked Poisson process, with locations as marks, whereas existing stars grow as independent Yule processes. Our approach can be interpreted as a Hoppe-type urn scheme with a spatial structure. We discuss its relevance for and connection to models of population genetics, particle aggregation, image segmentation, epidemic spread, and random graphs with preferential attachment.

We propose a wide generalization of known results related to the telegraph process. Functionals of the simple telegraph process on a straight line and their generalizations on an arbitrary state space are studied.

For a fixed k ∈ {1, …, d}, consider arbitrary random vectors X0, …, Xk ∈ ℝd such that the (k + 1)-tuples (UX0, …, UXk) have the same distribution for any rotation U. Let A be any nonsingular d × d matrix. We show that the k-dimensional volume of the convex hull of affinely transformed Xi satisfies \[|{\rm{conv}}(A{X_{\rm{0}}} \ldots ,A{X_k}){\rm{|}}\mathop {\rm{ = }}\limits^{\rm{D}} (|{P_\xi }\varepsilon |/{\kappa _k})|{\rm{conv}}\left( {{X_0}, \ldots ,{X_k}} \right)\], where ɛ:= {x ∈ ℝd : x┬ (A┬A)−1x ≤ 1} is an ellipsoid, Pξ denotes the orthogonal projection to a uniformly chosen random k-dimensional linear subspace ξ independent of X0, …, Xk, and κk is the volume of the unit k-dimensional ball. As an application, we derive the following integral geometry formula for ellipsoids: ck,d,p∫Ad,k |ɛ ∩ E|p+d+1μd,k(dE) = |ɛ|k+1∫Gd,k |PLɛ|pνd,k(dL), where $c_{k,d,p} = \big({\kappa_{d}^{k+1}}/{\kappa_k^{d+1}}\big) ({\kappa_{k(d+p)+k}}/{\kappa_{k(d+p)+d}})$. Here p > −1 and Ad,k and Gd,k are the affine and the linear Grassmannians equipped with their respective Haar measures. The p = 0 case reduces to an affine version of the integral formula of Furstenberg and Tzkoni (1971).

For a Brownian bridge from 0 to y, we prove that the mean of the first exit time from the interval $\left( -h,h \right),h>0$ , behaves as ${\mathrm{O}}(h^2)$ when $h \downarrow 0$ . Similar behaviour is also seen to hold for the three-dimensional Bessel bridge. For the Brownian bridge and three-dimensional Bessel bridge, this mean of the first exit time has a puzzling representation in terms of the Kolmogorov distribution. The result regarding the Brownian bridge is applied to provide a detailed proof of an estimate needed by Walsh to determine the convergence of the binomial tree scheme for European options.

We introduce and study the notion of sure profits via flash strategies, consisting of a high-frequency limit of buy-and-hold trading strategies. In a fully general setting, without imposing any semimartingale restriction, we prove that there are no sure profits via flash strategies if and only if asset prices do not exhibit predictable jumps. This result relies on the general theory of processes and provides the most general formulation of the well-known fact that, in an arbitrage-free financial market, asset prices (including dividends) should not exhibit jumps of a predictable direction or magnitude at predictable times. We furthermore show that any price process is always right-continuous in the absence of sure profits. Our results are robust under small transaction costs and imply that, under minimal assumptions, price changes occurring at scheduled dates should only be due to unanticipated information releases.

Given a stationary and isotropic Poisson hyperplane process and a convex body K in ${\mathbb R}^d$ , we consider the random polytope defined by the intersection of all closed half-spaces containing K that are bounded by hyperplanes of the process not intersecting K. We investigate how well the expected mean width of this random polytope approximates the mean width of K if the intensity of the hyperplane process tends to infinity.

Asset allocation with a derivative security is studied in a hidden, Markovian regime-switching, economy using filtering theory and the martingale approach. A generalized delta-hedged ratio and a generalized elasticity of an option are introduced to accommodate the presence of the information state process and the derivative security. Malliavin calculus is applied to derive a solution for a general utility function which includes an exponential utility, a power utility, and a logarithmic utility. A compact solution is obtained for a logarithmic utility. Some economic implications of the solutions are discussed.

In this paper we derive several explicit results on one special sticky diffusion process which is constructed as a time-changed version of a diffusion with no sticky points. A theorem concerning the process-related Green operators defined on some nonnegative piecewise continuous functions is provided. Then, based on this theorem, we explore the distributional properties of the sticky diffusion. A financial application is presented where we compute the value of the European vanilla call option written on the underlying with sticky price dynamics.

For 0 < a < 1, the Sibuya distribution sa is concentrated on the set ℕ+ of positive integers and is defined by the generating function $$\sum\nolimits_{n = 1}^\infty s_a (n)z^{{\kern 1pt} n} = 1 - (1 - z)^a$$. A distribution q on ℕ+ is called a progeny if there exists a branching process (Zn)n≥0 such that Z0 = 1, such that $$(Z_1 ) \le 1$$, and such that q is the distribution of $$\sum\nolimits_{n = 0}^\infty Z_n$$. this paper we prove that sa is a progeny if and only if $${\textstyle{1 \over 2}} \le a < 1$$. The main point is to find the values of b = 1/a such that the power series expansion of u(1 − (1 − u)b)−1 has nonnegative coefficients.

A new network evolution model is introduced in this paper. The model is based on cooperations of N units. The units are the nodes of the network and the cooperations are indicated by directed links. At each evolution step N units cooperate, which formally means that they form a directed N-star subgraph. At each step either a new unit joins the network and it cooperates with N − 1 old units, or N old units cooperate. During the evolution both preferential attachment and uniform choice are applied. Asymptotic power law distributions are obtained both for in-degrees and for out-degrees.

This paper is devoted to studying the long-term behaviour of a continuous-time Markov chain that can be interpreted as a pair of linear birth processes which evolve with a competitive interaction; as a special case, they include the famous Lotka–Volterra interaction. Another example of our process is related to urn models with ball removal. We show that, with probability one, the process eventually escapes to infinity by sticking to the boundary in a rather unusual way.

An upper bound for the hazard rate function of a convolution of not necessarily independent random lifetimes is provided, which generalizes a recent result established for independent random lifetimes. Similar results are considered for the reversed hazard rate function. Applications to parametric and semiparametric models are also given.

We consider a generalised Vervaat perpetuity of the form X = Y1W1 +Y2W1W2 + · · ·, where $W_i \sim {\cal U}^{1/t}$ and (Yi)i≥0 is an independent and identically distributed sequence of random variables independent from (Wi)i≥0. Based on a distributional decomposition technique, we propose a novel method for exactly simulating the generalised Vervaat perpetuity. The general framework relies on the exact simulation of the truncated gamma process, which we develop using a marked renewal representation for its paths. Furthermore, a special case arises when Yi = 1, and X has the generalised Dickman distribution, for which we present an exact simulation algorithm using the marked renewal approach. In particular, this new algorithm is much faster than existing algorithms illustrated in Chi (2012), Cloud and Huber (2017), Devroye and Fawzi (2010), and Fill and Huber (2010), as well as being applicable to the general payments case. Examples and numerical analysis are provided to demonstrate the accuracy and effectiveness of our method.