A probabilistic crop forecast based on ensembles of crop model output estimates, presented here, offers an ensemble of possible realizations and probabilistic forecasts of green water components, crop yield and green water footprints (WFs) on seasonal scales for selected summer crops. The present paper presents results of an ongoing study related to the application of ensemble forecasting concepts in crop production. Seasonal forecasting of crop water use indicators (evapotranspiration (ET), water productivity, green WF) and yield of rainfed summer crops (maize, spring barley and sunflower), was performed using the AquaCrop model and ensemble weather forecast, provided by The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast. The ensemble of estimates obtained was tested with observation-based simulations to assess the ability of seasonal weather forecasts to ensure that accuracy of the simulation results was the same as for those obtained using observed weather data. Best results are obtained for ensemble forecast for yield, ET, water productivity and green WF for sunflower in Novi Sad (Serbia) and maize in Groß-Enzersdorf (Austria) – average root mean square error (2006–2014) was <10% of observation-based values of selected variables. For variables yielding a probability distribution, capacity to reflect the distribution from which their outcomes will be drawn was tested using an Ignorance score. Average Ignorance score, for all locations, crops and variables varied from 1.49 (spring barley ET in Groß-Enzersdorf) to 3.35 (sunflower water productivity in Groß-Enzersdorf).

The significant expansion of whiskey distillation in Ireland has increased requirements on the Irish malting barley industry to supply spring barley with low grain nitrogen concentration (GNC). Published literature suggests that genetics, soil type and environmental conditions are the predominant drivers controlling production of malting barley with low GNC values. However, it is acknowledged that agronomic practices such as sowing date and nitrogen (N) application are also important factors in determining the grain yield (GY) and grain quality (GQ) of malting barley. The effects of four N fertilizer rates (90, 110, 130 and 150 kg N/ha) and two sowing dates (March and April) on GY and GQ of a two-row spring barley variety (Hordeum vulgare L. cvar Overture) was evaluated at two different sites over a 3-year period (2014–2016). Earlier sowing dates resulted in significantly higher mean GY (7.98 t/ha) compared with later sowing dates (7 t/ha). GY and GNC also increased consistently with greater increments of fertilizer N. Earlier sowing dates also significantly improved several distilling malt quality parameters, such as soluble extract (SE), fermentable extract, predicted spirit yield and fermentability. Later sowing dates increased diastatic power and soluble N. The results of the current study suggest that the likelihood of producing spring malting barley with low GNC values and better malting quality is enhanced through earlier sowing dates on suitable soil types. Earlier sowing dates also facilitated the use of higher fertilizer N rates, enabling high GY potential without crossing the GNC threshold for the distilling market.

An experiment was conducted to evaluate whether dietary reduction and sex class affect nutrient intake, digestibility, purine derivative (PD) excretion and heat tolerance coefficient in lambs. Thirty-five hair lambs (14.5 ± 0.89 kg initial body weight (BW), 2 months old) were used in a completely randomized study with a 3 × 3 factorial arrangement, three sex classes (11 intact males, 12 castrated males and 12 females) and three levels of feeding (ad libitum, 300 and 600 g/kg/dry matter (DM) feed restriction) for 120 days. Intact and castrated males showed higher intakes of DM and neutral detergent fibre corrected for ash and protein (NDFap) than females. At 300 g/kg/DM feed restriction, NDFap digestibility was lower in intact males than in other classes; however, no differences were found between classes when subjected to ad libitum feeding or 600 g/kg/DM. The basal endogenous nitrogen and endogenous urinary losses were highest in intact males. Allantoin, uric acid and PD excretion, as well as PD absorption and microbial protein production were lowest in the animals subjected to 600 g/kg/DM feed restriction. Microbial protein synthesis (MPS) was highest in animals subjected to 600 g/kg/DM feed restriction. The lowest temperatures were observed in animals subjected to 600 g/kg/DM feed restriction. The heat tolerance coefficient was highest in animals subjected to 600 g/kg/DM feed restriction. In conclusion, feed restriction reduced the time spent on feeding and rumination but increased the digestibility of DM. The restriction level of 600 g/kg/DM maximized MPS and infrared thermography indicated an elevated heat tolerance coefficient.

The objective of the current paper was to apply mixed models to adjust the growth curve of quail lines for meat and laying hens and present the rates of instantaneous, relative and absolute growth. A database was used with birth weight records up to the 148th day of female quail of the lines for meat and posture. The models evaluated were Brody, Von Bertalanffy, Logistic and Gompertz and the types of residues were constant, combined, proportional and exponential. The Gompertz model with the combined residue presented the best fit. Both strains present a high correlation between the parameters asymptotic weight (A) and average growth rate (k). The two strains presented a different growth profile. However, growth rates allow greater discernment of growth profiles. The meat line presented a higher growth rate (6.95 g/day) than the lineage for laying (3.65 g/day). The relative growth rate was higher for lineage for laying (0.15%) in relation to the lineage for meat (0.13%). The inflection point of both lines is on the first third of the growth curve (up to 15 days). All results suggest that changes in management or nutrition could optimize quail production.

Deficit irrigation (DI) improves water use efficiency (WUE), but the reduced water input often limits plant growth and nutrient uptake. The current study examined whether arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) could alleviate abiotic stress caused by low phosphorus (P) fertilization and DI.

A greenhouse experiment was conducted with potato grown with (P1) or without (P0) P fertilization, with AMF (M1+: Rhizophagus irregularis or M2+: Glomus proliferum) or AMF-free control (M−) and subjected to full irrigation (FI), DI or partial root-zone drying (PRD).

Inoculation of M1+ and M2+ maintained or improved plant growth and P/nitrogen (N) uptake when subjected to DI/PRD and P0. However, the positive responses to AMF varied with P level and irrigation regime. Functional differences were found in ability of AMF species alleviating plant stress. The largest positive plant biomass response to M1+ and M2+ was found under FI, both at P1 and P0 (25% increase), while plant biomass response to M1+ and M2+ under DI/PRD (14% increase) was significantly smaller. The large growth response to AMF inoculation, particularly under FI, may relate to greater photosynthetic capacity and leaf area, probably caused by stimulation of plant P/N uptake and carbon partitioning toward roots and tubers. However, plant growth response to AMF was not related to the percentage of AMF root colonization. Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi can maintain and improve P/N uptake, WUE and growth of plants both at high/low P levels and under FI/DI. If this is also the case under field conditions, it should be implemented for sustainable potato production.

Cucumber powdery mildew is a destructive foliar disease caused by Podosphaera xanthii (formerly known as Sphaerotheca fuliginea) that substantially damages the yield and quality of crops. The control of this disease primarily involves the use of chemical pesticides that cause serious environmental problems. Currently, numerous studies have indicated that some plant extracts or products potentially have the ability to act as natural pesticides to control plant diseases. It has been reported that turmeric (Curcuma longa L.) and its extract can be used in agriculture due to their insecticidal and fungicidal properties. However, the most effective fungicidal component of this plant is still unknown. In the current study, the crude extract of C. longa L. was found to have a fungicidal effect against P. xanthii. Afterwards, eight fractions (Fr.1–Fr.8) were gradually separated from the crude extract by column chromatography. Fraction 1 had the highest fungicidal effect against this pathogen among the eight fractions. The active compound, (+)-(S)-ar-turmerone, was separated from Fr 1 by semi-preparative high-performance liquid chromatography and identified based on its 1H nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and 13C NMR spectrum data. The EC50 value of (+)-(S)-ar-turmerone was found to be 28.7 µg/ml. The compound also proved to have a curative effect. This is the first study to report that the compound (+)-(S)-ar-turmerone has an effect on controlling this disease. These results provide a basis for developing a new phytochemical fungicide from C. longa L. extract.

Nitrification potential of a tropical vertisol saturated with water was estimated during sequential reduction of nitrate (NO3−), ferric iron (Fe3+), sulphate (SO42−) and carbon dioxide (CO2) in terminal electron-accepting processes (TEAPs). In general, the TEAPs enhanced potential nitrification rate (PNR) of the soil. Nitrification was highest at Fe3+ reduction followed by SO42− reduction, NO3− reduction and lowest in unreduced control soil. Predicted PNR correlated significantly with the observed PNR. Electron donor Fe2+ stimulated PNR, while S2− inhibited it significantly. Terminal-restriction fragment length polymorphism targeting the amoA gene of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) highlighted population dynamics during the sequential reduction of terminal electron acceptors. Only the relative abundance of AOA varied significantly during the course of soil reduction. Relative abundance of AOB correlated with NO3− and Fe2+. Linear regression models predicted PNR from the values of NO3−, Fe2+ and relative abundance of AOA. Principal component analysis of PNR during different reducing conditions explained 72.90% variance by PC1 and 19.52% variance by PC2. Results revealed that AOA might have a significant role in nitrification during reducing conditions in the tropical flooded ecosystem of a vertisol.

Keratin-associated proteins (KAPs) are constituents of wool and hair fibres and are believed to play an important role in determining the characteristics of the fibres. In the current study, a polymerase chain reaction-single stranded conformational polymorphism (PCR-SSCP) approach was used to screen for variation in the ovine KAP15-1 gene (KRTAP15-1). Four PCR-SSCP banding patterns, representing four different variants (named A to D), were detected. Four single nucleotide polymorphisms were found within the coding region and three of these were non-synonymous. The effect of this genetic variation on wool traits was investigated in 396 Merino × Southdown-cross sheep. Of the three variants found in these sheep (A, B and C), the presence of B was found to be associated with decreased wool yield, while C was associated with increased wool yield and decreased fibre diameter standard deviation. Sheep of genotype AC had a higher wool yield than those of genotype AA or AB.

The current study aims to evaluate the effects of increasing levels of xylanase enzyme (XYL) on sugarcane silage fermentation, fermentative losses, chemical composition, dry matter (DM), neutral detergent fibre (NDF) degradation and aerobic stability. A completely randomized design trial was performed with five treatments and 50 experimental silos. Treatments were: 0, 100, 200, 300 and 400 mg of XYL per kg of DM. XYL contained 10 000 U/g. There was a quadratic effect of XYL on silage pH and acetic acid concentration: lower pH and higher acetic acid concentrations were found at intermediary levels of the enzyme. XYL decreased lactic acid concentration linearly. Furthermore, the enzyme had a quadratic effect on effluent and total losses, with higher losses at intermediary XYL levels. There was a quadratic effect of XYL on organic matter (OM), non-fibre carbohydrates (NFC) and crude protein (CP) content. In addition, a quadratic effect of XYL was observed on NDF content and degradation. Intermediary levels of XYL showed higher concentration of OM and NFC. The addition of XYL had no effect on silage temperature and pH after aerobic exposure. Thus, intermediate levels of XYL increased acetic acid and decreased silage pH. Besides positive effects on silage composition, intermediary XYL levels decreased NDF degradation.

Rhizoctonia solani Kühn and Pythium aphanidermatum Edson cause cabbage seedling damping-off, resulting in severe yield losses. The current study demonstrates the production of toxic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) by two strains of Bacillus mycoides and the evaluation of a potential use of B. mycoides as a biocontrol agent to control cabbage damping-off. Two VOCs, dimethyl disulphide and ammonia, were found to reduce radial growth, cause hyphal deformation and result in organelle degeneration in both R. solani and P. aphanidermatum. Pathogen hyphae, after being exposed to VOCs, showed poor rigidity, shrinkage, curling and swelling. The amount of VOCs produced by B. mycoides and the antagonistic activity against plant pathogens varied, depending on the type of medium used to culture bacteria. Application of B. mycoides cell suspensions to cultivation medium promotes growth of five different plant species tested. Experiments conducted in greenhouses revealed that B. mycoides did not reduce damping-off incidence caused by R. solani. However, B. mycoides reduced damping-off incidence induced by P. aphanidermatum by as much as 45% on cabbage seedlings. The results provide valuable information on the feasibility of utilizing B. mycoides as a biocontrol agent in controlling cabbage damping-off.

Effective integrated weed management in agricultural landscapes depends on the ability to identify and manage processes that drive weed dynamics. The current study reports the effects of grazing management and crop rotation strategies on the seedbank and emerged weed flora in an integrated crop-livestock system (ICLS) experiment during a 12-year period under no-tillage in sub-tropical southern Brazil. During winter, Italian ryegrass cover crops were grazed by sheep: grazing management treatments included two stocking methods (continuous and rotational) and two forage allowances (10 and 20 kg of herbage dry matter available per 100 kg animal live weight). During summer, the crop rotation treatments involved either soybean-maize or soybean-soybean in succession with winter-grazed cover crops. The treatments were part of a factorial randomized complete block design. Treatment effects were evaluated on the weed seedbank and emerged weed flora populations during winter-grazed cover crop and summer crop growth as well as during the harvest phase. The current results demonstrate that crop rotation and grazing management exhibited interactive effects on the determination of weed outcomes in an ICLS. However, overall, compared with moderate forage allowance, high forage allowance during the winter-grazed cover crop caused lower emerged weed flora in subsequent crops (20% reduction during crop growth and 90% reduction at crop harvest) and 48% reduction in seedbank size. High forage allowance promoted more residue from winter-grazed cover crop biomass, which remained during the summer crop phases and probably resulted in a physical barrier to weed emergence.

Crop scientists occasionally compute sample correlations between traits based on observed data from designed experiments, and this is often accompanied by significance tests of the null hypothesis that traits are uncorrelated. This simple approach does not account for effects due to the randomization layout and treatment structure of the experiments and hence statistical inference based on standard procedures is not appropriate. The present paper describes how valid inferences accounting for all relevant effects can be obtained using bivariate mixed linear model procedures. A salient feature of the approach is that the bivariate model is commensurate with the model used for univariate analysis of individual traits and allows bivariate correlations to be computed at the level of effects. Heterogeneity of correlations between effects can be assessed by likelihood ratio tests or by graphical inspection of bivariate scatter plots of effect estimates. if heterogeneity is found to be substantial, it is crucial to focus on the correlation of effects, and usually, the main interest will be in the treatment effects. If heterogeneity is judged to be negligible, the marginal correlation can be estimated from the bivariate model for an overall assessment of association. The proposed methods are illustrated using four examples. Hints are given to alternative routes of analysis accounting for all treatment and design effects such as regression with groups and analysis of covariance.

Saving water in irrigated agriculture is a high priority in areas with scarce water resources and impacted by climate change. This paper presents results of measurements on water productivity (WP) under alternative rice growing practices such as alternating wetting and drying, direct seeded rice, modified systems of rice intensification and conventional paddy rice (NI) in two selected districts (Guntur in Andhra Pradesh and Nalgonda in Telangana, India). Under alternative practices, the yields varied from 5.72 to 6.11 t/ha compared with 4.71 t/ha under paddy rice. The average water application varied from 991 to 1494 mm under alternative practices while average application in conventional paddy rice was 2242 mm. Higher yield and lower water application led to an increase in WP varying from 0.45 to 0.59 kg/m3 under alternative practices compared with 0.22 kg/m3 under conventional paddy rice. The measurements showed that less water can be used to produce more crop under alternative rice growing practices. The results are important for water-scarce areas, providing useful information to policy makers, farmers, agricultural departments and water management boards in devising future climate-smart adaptation and mitigation strategies.

For straw incorporation, three crucial factors affect the soil microbial community and various enzyme activities: straw length, amount and burial depth. To analyse the individual and interactive effects of these three factors on the soil microbial community and various enzyme activities, 23 treatments with five levels of the three variables (straw length, amount and burial depth) were applied in a quadratic orthogonal rotation combination design. A comprehensive indicator was constructed that could represent soil microbial functional diversity and enzyme activity by determining the weights of measured indicators and using Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The results indicated that the soil microbiological indicators have a higher criteria weight than soil enzyme activity indicators. The final weight orders of indicators were as follows: Shannon–Weaver > invertase > Shannon evenness > urease > catalase > McIntosh index > Simpson diversity > phosphatase. The soil comprehensive values constructed by the TOPSIS method are reliable. The optimal combination for the improvement of soil microbial functional diversity and enzyme activity was a straw length of 13–24 cm, burial depth of 10–17 cm and straw amount of 370–650 g/m2.

Declining pulse production has caused wide concern in recent years. A field experiment was conducted to investigate effects of balance fertilizers based on soil test values and targeted yield equations on soil biological activities, soil quality, nutrient acquisition and grain yield of lentil. Treatments included the use of farmyard manure (FYM), bio-inoculants and inorganic fertilizers at different rates and combinations. The results revealed significant improvement in nodulation, microbial counts, microbial biomass carbon (MBC), soil respiration, soil enzymes and soil organic carbon (SOC) with integrated approaches (i.e. fertilizer plus FYM or bio-inoculants); these improvements led to achievement of the specific target yield of 1.50 t/ha. Although the highest yield was achieved with fertilizers applied for a target yield of 2.0 t/ha, there was significant decline in nodulation, microbial counts, MBC, soil respiration, soil enzymes, SOC and soil quality. Correlation between soil quality index (SQI) and grain yield suggested a significant influence of balanced fertilization based on soil tests and target yield. Principal component analysis revealed the average contribution of soil quality indicators towards SQI was in descending order of SOC > acid phosphatase activity > total culturable fungi > available phosphorus > BMC, which are crucial for sustainable lentil production in alluvial soils.

Feeding phenol-containing plants to ruminants has the potential to mitigate both methane and ammonia formation. In the present study, mostly woody plants, such as the leaves of trees and shrubs, were tested for their influence on in vitro fermentation. The plants selected grow naturally under temperate climatic conditions, are usually available in bulk and do not directly compete with human food production. The detailed screening included whole plants or parts of different plant species reporting their effects on methane and/or ammonia formation. The plant materials were added at 167 mg/g of total dry matter (DM) to a common total mixed ration and incubated for 24 h with the Hohenheim gas test method. The results from in vitro fermentation were also used to determine the net energy of lactation and utilizable crude protein in the complete diets. Thirteen out of 18 test materials did not impair the organic matter (OM) digestibility of the diet. Ammonia concentrations decreased up to 35% when adding any of the test materials. Methane formation per unit of feed DM and per unit of digestible OM was lowered by 13 of the 18 test materials from 12 to 28% and 5 to 20%, respectively. In conclusion, a number of plant materials tested have the potential to mitigate ruminal ammonia and methane formation without adversely affecting digestibility. The leaves of Betula pendula, Corylus avellana, Ribes nigrum, Vitis vinifera and the aerial part of Geum urbanum were particularly promising in this respect.

The current experiment aimed at assessing the effects of dietary supplementation of guanidino acetic acid (GAA) on growth performance, thigh meat quality and development of small intestine in broilers. A total of 360 1-day-old female broiler chicks were distributed randomly to four groups of 90 birds each, and each group received GAA dosages of 0, 0.4, 0.8 and 1.2 g/kg of feed dry matter. During the whole experiment of 60 days, broilers had ad libitum access to water and feed and the feed intake was recorded daily. All broilers were weighed before and after the experiment, and 30 broilers of each group were selected randomly to slaughter at the end. Increasing dietary supplementation of GAA increased final live weight and daily body weight gain, gain-to-feed ratio, thigh muscle pH value and fibre diameter of broilers, but decreased daily feed intake, drip loss, cooking loss, shear force value, hardness, gumminess and chewiness of thigh meat. In addition, increasing supplementation of GAA quadratically increased duodenal, jejunal and ileal villus height and width and ratio of villus height to crypt depth, but decreased crypt depth. The results indicated that GAA as a feed additive may support better development of small intestine, thereby resulting in improvement of growth performance and meat quality of broilers.

Tail biting in pigs is a serious welfare problem with multifactorial causes. Several risk factors are described in the literature ranging from environmental factors including stocking densities, deficiencies in feed quality or accessibility, to internal factors such as poor health status, genetics or sex. Also, the human–animal relationship can have an effect on behaviour and performance of the animals. Thus, the aim of the current study was to evaluate whether intensified human–animal interaction in the rearing period can reduce the occurrence of tail biting in weaned piglets. For this, two treatment groups were established. The trial group differed only in intensified human–animal interaction (e.g. calm speech, petting, food provision) from the control group, which was carried out three times a week by one person for 15 min in each pen. Once a week the animals’ tails were scored regarding tail lesions and losses and a human approach test was performed. The intensified human–animal interaction influenced the animals’ behaviour towards the human as well as towards their pen mates. The trial group showed significantly better results compared with the control group, i.e. fewer tail lesions and more animals with intact tails. Also, the results of the human approach test in the trial group showed a lower latency to approach compared with the control group. Thus, integration of an intensified human–animal interaction into the daily practice of pig farms could be one possibility for enhancing the human–animal relationship and reducing occurrence of tail biting.

The present study aim to explore temporal–spatial patterns of water use (WU) efficiency and its influencing factors of maize production in China during 1998–2010. WU and productivity (WP) were quantified by taking irrigation loss into account and the links between WP and nine selected indicators were revealed by the partial least squares regression (PLSR) model. Results showed that national WU and WP in maize production were 138.56 cubic gigametres (Gm3; 0.755 green and 0.245 blue) and 1.079 kg/m3, respectively. WP was enhanced in the present study due to an increase in irrigated crop yield. Provinces located in the middle–lower part of the Yellow River had high proportions of green water and WP, while high proportions of irrigation water and low WP were found in Northwest China. The dosage of pesticides per unit area, relative humidity, average temperature and precipitation were the dominant factors that affected WP. However, the relationships between WP and solar radiation, fertilizer, agricultural machinery power, irrigation proportion and irrigated efficiency were not significant. Findings of the present research may also provide a reference for regional agricultural water management.

Integrated crop-livestock systems (ICLS) are currently promoted agricultural production systems that aim to use better resources through production integration and intensification. While this system reduces some risks, it adds complexity and new risks to businesses due to interdependence between the agricultural modules. To deal with these issues, integrated risk management is required to reduce the effects of risks and to take advantage of the opportunities of an ICLS. Generically, enterprise risk management (ERM) meets this need by proposing comprehensive and coherent risk management, instead of managing agricultural module risks individually. However, there is a need to customize the ERM approach to ICLS. Therefore, the current study aims to develop a method to manage risks for ICLS based on ERM, integrating the management of risks and aligning risk management with the strategic objectives. A literature review, a pilot study, interviews with experts, four case studies and 20 practitioners supported the method development and evaluation through three versions. As a result, the method identifies and relates risks through process mapping with a qualitative and quantitative analysis of their impacts, determines risk responses based on willingness to take risks, and helps identify processes to control, communicate and monitor the risks. The method also stimulates the implementation of ICLS in market-oriented farms, providing an approach to increase the chances of ICLS success. The main difference from previous research lies in the integrative management of multiple risks, the alignment of risks with strategy and the consideration that a risk might be considered an opportunity.