The present study applies refined and improved scenarios for climate change to quantify the effects of potential alterations in climatic factors on localities for wheat and cotton production, which are two crops important to Australia's economy. The future distributions of Gossypium (cotton) and Triticum aestivum L. (wheat) were modelled using CLIMEX software with the A2 emission scenario generated by CSIRO-Mk3·0 and MIROC-H global climate models. The results were correlated to identify areas suitable for these economically important crops for the years 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100 in Australia. The analysis shows that the areas where wheat and cotton can be grown in Australia will diminish from 2030 to 2050 and 2070 through to 2100. While cotton can be grown over extensive areas of the country until 2070, the area grown to wheat will decrease significantly over the period.

The historical temperature (1981–2007) and phenological (1986–2011) data were analysed for the region of Sremski Karlovci, one of the oldest grapevine growing areas in Europe, with the aim of detecting trends of changes in the data, evaluating the sensitivity of grapevine phenology to temperature and revealing diversity among cultivars in their response to observed changes in temperature. The onset dates of four major phenological stages (budburst, flowering, veraison and harvest), along with the corresponding growth intervals between them, were examined for 20 wine grape cultivars. A number of climatically important parameters for viticulture were calculated for the calendar year, growing season and different grapevine growth periods. Significant increases were detected in average and heat-related extreme temperature indices. The greatest rate of change in temperature variables across the growing season was observed during the period from the beginning of flowering to the beginning of veraison and the smallest during the ripening period. Linear trends indicated that all phenological stages, except budburst, have advanced significantly. Averaged across all cultivars, detected trends were –0·4, –0·7 and –0·6 days/year for the beginning of flowering, the beginning of veraison and harvest date, respectively. Observed warming and change in the timing of phenological events did not significantly affect the duration of the growth intervals, which can be explained by significant inter-correlation between the phenological stages’ onset. Ripening was occurring under warmer conditions due to earlier flowering and veraison, rather than because of considerably higher temperatures preceding harvest or shortening of the ripening period. Most of the variation in phenology timing (74–90%) can be explained by a linear relationship between the onset date of phenological stage and temperature, with mean and maximum temperatures being more important than minimum temperatures. According to the current results, a 1 °C increase in the most influential temperature variable during the most relevant periods for the onset of phenological stages led to an advancement in the beginning of budburst, the beginning of flowering, the beginning of veraison and harvest by 3·6, 3·1, 5·2 and 7·4 days, respectively, on average for all cultivars. Among the cultivars studied, Pinot Noir displayed the greatest phenology advancement in response to increased temperature.

Agriculture is a largely technical endeavour involving complicated managerial decision-making that affects crop performance. Farm-level modelling integrates crop models with agent behaviour to account for farmer decision-making and complete the representation of agricultural systems. To replicate an important part of agriculture in Central Europe a crop model was calibrated for a unique region's predominant crops: winter wheat, winter and spring barley, silage maize and winter rapeseed. Their cultivation was then simulated over multiple decades at daily resolution to test validity and stability, while adding the dimension of agent behaviour in relation to environmental and economic conditions. After validation against regional statistics, simulated future weather scenarios were used to forecast crop management and performance under anticipated global change. Farm management and crop genetics were treated as adaptive variables in the milieu of shifting climatic conditions to allow projections of agriculture in the study region into the coming decades.

Chamber sampling is a common method for measuring nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agricultural soils. However, for grazed pastures, the patchy nature of urine deposition results in very high levels of spatial variability in N2O emissions. In the present study, the behaviour of the sample mean was examined by simulating a large number (9999) of random N2O chamber samples under different assumptions regarding the underlying N2O distribution. Using sample sizes of up to 100 chambers, the Central Limit Theorem did not apply. The distribution of the sample mean was always right-skewed with a standard deviation varying between 12·5 and 135% of the true mean. However, the arithmetic mean was an unbiased estimator and the mean of the sample mean distribution was close to the true mean of the simulated N2O distribution. The properties of the sample mean distribution (variance, skewness) were affected significantly by the assumed distribution of the emission factor, but not by distribution of the urine patch concentration. The geometric mean was also investigated as a potential alternative estimator. However, although its distribution had lower variance, it was also biased. Two methods for bias correcting the mean were investigated. These methods reduced the bias, but at the cost of increasing the variance. Neither of the bias-corrected estimators were consistently better than the arithmetic mean in terms of skewness and variance. To improve the estimation of N2O emissions from a grazed pasture using chambers, techniques need to be developed to identify urine patch and non-urine patch areas before sampling.

Soil organic matter (SOM) is important for long-term crop productivity through maintenance of soil quality and is also now receiving attention due to its potential for climate change mitigation. The objectives of the present study were to investigate the effects of 9 years of fertilization on soil organic carbon (SOC) and total organic nitrogen (TON) and their fractions for the 0–50 cm profile in clayey (Luvisols) and sandy (Arenosols) soils in Murewa District, Zimbabwe. Three treatments were assessed: unfertilized (Control), nitrogen fertilizer (Nfert) and nitrogen fertilizer plus cattle manure (Nfert+manure). Density fractionation was used to assess the distribution of SOC and TON in three SOM fractions and their sensitivity to fertilization in fields 0–50 m away from homesteads (Homefields) and > 100 m away from homesteads (outfields). The relationship between light and heavy fraction organic carbon (C) were analysed to determine equilibrium levels that give an indication of carbon storage potential. In clayey soils total organic C under Nfert+manure was 4% higher than Nfert and 16% higher than the control. In sandy soils, SOC stocks were lowest in the control and highest in Nfert treatments at all depths. Nine years of fertilization significantly influenced SOC concentrations and storage up to 20 cm depth, below which stocks and concentrations of C and N were statistically insignificant. Distribution of C and N in density fractions showed greater stabilization under Nfert+manure in clayey soils, whereas it was greater under Nfert in sandy soils. Estimation of equilibrium levels suggested that homefields had potential to store more C, whereas outfields and control treatments had limited capacity due to attainment of lower equilibrium levels. Application of manure can be a low-cost alternative for enhancing soil quality and promoting soil C sequestration under conventionally tilled continuous maize cropping systems in Zimbabwe.

Cultivar depreciation – the gradual decline in relative advantage of a cultivated variety over time – accentuates the vulnerability of resource-poor farmers to production risks. The current paper addresses constraints in combating cultivar depreciation of wheat in India. National level data on quoted demand for breeder seeds and breeder seed production indicated a slowdown in the rate of cultivar turnover of wheat, with average varietal age increasing from 9 years in 1997 to 12 years in 2009. Analysis of cultivar adoption patterns among farmer households of Haryana State also indicates that farmers prefer cultivars that were released a decade ago over the recent ones. Cultivar turnover rates are found to be particularly low among marginal farmers. While the structure of India's wheat breeding and seed delivery systems might be the primary cause of slow cultivar turnover, a number of social and economic factors at the micro-level are also responsible. Many of the constraints to technology adoption and wheat productivity growth, identified during the Green Revolution era, persist even today.

Delineating site-specific management zones within fields can be helpful in addressing spatial variability effects for adopting precision farming practices. A 3-year (2008/09 to 2010/11) field study was conducted at the Postgraduate Agricultural Research Station, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Pakistan, to identify the most important soil and landscape attributes influencing wheat grain yield, which can be used for delineating management zones. A total of 48 soil samples were collected from the top 300 mm of soil in 8-ha experimental field divided into regular grids of 24 × 67 m prior to sowing wheat. Soil and landscape attributes such as elevation, % of sand, silt and clay by volume, soil electrical conductivity (EC), pH, soil nitrogen (N) and soil phosphorus (P) were included in the analysis. Artificial neural network (ANN) analysis showed that % sand, % clay, elevation, soil N and soil EC were important variables for delineating management zones. Different management zone schemes ranging from three to six were developed and evaluated based on performance indicators using Management Zone Analyst (MZA V0·1) software. The fuzziness performance index (FPI) and normalized classification entropy NCE indices showed minimum values for a four management zone scheme, indicating its appropriateness for the experimental field. The coefficient of variation values of soil and landscape attributes decreased for each management zone within the four management zone scheme compared to the entire field, which showed improved homogeneity. The evaluation of the four management zone scheme using normalized wheat grain yield data showed distinct means for each management zone, verifying spatial variability effects and the need for its management. The results indicated that the approach based on ANN and MZA software analysis can be helpful in delineating management zones within the field, to promote precision farming practices effectively.

The spatial distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) can be affected by environmental factors such as land use change, type of vegetation, soil redistribution processes and soil management practices. Because data are scarce in mountain agroecosystems, improving knowledge on the relationships between land use, soil redistribution processes and SOC fractions is of interest, especially in rapidly changing Mediterranean landscapes. Typically, SOC is divided into two distinct carbon fractions: the active and decomposable fraction (ACF) with rapid turnover rates, which acts as a short-term carbon reservoir, and the stable carbon fraction (SCF) with lower turnover rates that acts as a long-term reservoir. In the present study SOC, ACF and SCF contents were measured by the dry combustion method and converted to inventories expressed as mass per unit surface area (kg/m2). The SOC distribution patterns were related to land use and soil redistribution processes in soil profiles along a representative mountain agroecosystem toposequence in northeast Spain. The soil depth profiles were identified as stable, eroded and depositional sites using fallout 137caesium (Cs). Significantly higher amounts of SOC were found in forest soils (36 ± 20·2 g/kg) compared to abandoned (21 ± 14·3 g/kg) and cultivated arable land (11 ± 6·3 g/kg), suggesting that cultivation decreases SOC content. In addition, stable soil profiles had significantly higher SOC content (42 ± 24·3 g/kg) than at depositional and eroded profiles (18 ± 14·5 and 17 ± 13·1 g/kg, respectively). A positive and statistically significant relationship between SOC and 137Cs inventories suggested that both are moved and associated with similar soil redistribution processes.

Eight winter oilseed rape and two spring oilseed rape field experiments were performed in the UK in harvest years 2009–12. Each experiment consisted of at least one hybrid and one open-pollinated variety grown at five seed rates from 10 or 20 seeds/m2 to 160 or 200 seeds/m2. Linear plus exponential curves were used to describe the yield response to seed rate and to calculate economically optimal seed rates. Plant counts were then used to derive optimal plant population densities. These ranged from <10 to 39 plants/m2 for six winter oilseed rape experiments between 73 and >155 plants/m2 in two winter oilseed rape experiments with severe spring droughts, and from 47 to 65 plants/m2 for spring oilseed rape. Optimal plant population densities were lower for hybrid than for open-pollinated varieties, due to a combination of the higher cost of hybrid seed and, for some experimental sites, hybrid varieties compensating better for low plant populations. Across all sites, sowing winter oilseed rape at 30 seeds/m2 rather than common commercial rates of 70 seeds/m2 for hybrids and 100 seeds/m2 for open-pollinated varieties would have increased average gross margin by £29/ha. Sowing spring oilseed rape at 70 seeds/m2 rather than commonly used rates of 120 or 150 seeds/m2 would have increased average gross margin by £64/ha.

High temperature stress at critical growth stages is a major risk factor for wheat in many wheat growing areas globally. Developing weather indices relating to yield reductions in wheat is an urgent requirement for weather-index-based crop insurance. The objectives of the present study were to: (i) identify critical phenological stage(s) for heat stress, (ii) quantify the impact of heat stress at critical growth stage(s) and (iii) work out thresholds of temperature for obtaining above average, average and below average yield of wheat. For achieving these objectives, 11 years’ experimental data for three cultivars (HD-2285, K-8804 and K-9107) under three sowing dates at the Kanpur Centre located in the Indo-Gangetic Plains of Uttar Pradesh, India were used. Among the eight phenological stages, the milk stage (growth stage 73) was identified as most sensitive for high maximum and minimum temperatures to adversely affect yield. The rate of yield reduction with unit increase in maximum and minimum temperatures (°C) was found to be highest in K-8804 and lowest in HD-2285. The optimum ranges of maximum temperature during anthesis, milk, dough and maturity stages are 19·7–21·9, 24·2–26·5, 26·1–28·8 and 29·5–30·8 °C, respectively and those for minimum temperature are 4·3–6·2, 8·3–9·7, 11·5–12·4 and 13·0–15·1 °C, respectively. The thresholds of temperature during critical stages and quantification of heat stress on yield will be of use in devising weather-index-based crop insurance products in wheat and also for breeding temperature-stress-resistant genotypes. This method of devising weather indices in the present study can be used in other crops and regions of the world as an adaptation strategy for climate change.

The type and processing of cereals for beef cattle are key factors to maximize performance without increasing the risk of ruminal acidosis. The current work studied the effect of grinding (G) or dry-rolling (R) the cereals in a concentrate based on maize (M) or barley (B) on the rumen environment of eight 6-month-old Holstein calves, which received either M or B for 70 days, offered as G and R in two consecutive periods. Daily feed intake pattern, rumen fermentation traits, total rumen bacteria and relative proportions of Streptococcus bovis and Selenomonas ruminantium were characterized twice in each period at 0, 4 and 8 h after feeding. Dry-rolling promoted a 0·25 reduction of concentrate intake during the first 4 h after feeding. Neither cereal type nor its processing form promoted differences in ruminal fermentation at 0 and 4 h; however, 8 h after feeding R cereals resulted in higher rumen pH (6·17 v. 5·71) and lower concentration of lactic acid (88·1 v. 156 mg/l) and volatile fatty acids (only in diet B, 118 v. 164 mm/l) compared with G. Little effect of dietary factors in the target rumen microorganisms were observed. The more balanced fermentation observed with R cereals may be explained by the lower concentrate intake promoted during the first 4 h, coupled with a more difficult access of bacterial enzymes to their starch, thus reducing its fermentation rate. Therefore, feeding dry-rolled cereals may be useful to reduce the risk of acidosis by regulating the intake pattern of the concentrate and/or its fermentation rate.

The objective of the current study was to quantify the response of pasture to phosphorus (P) fertilizer application and legume introduction, by measuring herbage yield, nitrogen (N) and P content, and weight gain of calves in native pastures of Uruguay. Quantitative relationships between pasture characteristics and post-weaning daily live weight gain (DLWG) were also examined. The treatments studied were native grassland (NG) and improved pasture, oversown with Lotus corniculatus L. and Trifolium repens L. with annual applications of either 13 and 26 kg P/ha. From 1996 to 2001 the treatments were evaluated each year with a new group of calves. Total herbage yields of the oversown pastures were not always higher than NG in the initial years, but legume production increased, although without significant differences between P rates on legume or total yield. This was also reflected in the N and P status of the swards. In the last 2 years legume proportion had declined to <0·1, but total herbage yield was significantly higher in the improved pastures. The average DLWG over the 6 years of measurements were 0·319, 0·478 and 0·586 kg/day for NG, P1 and P2, respectively, with average total live weight gain increased 1·8- and 2·5-fold by the legume introduction and annual addition of 13 and 26 kg P/ha, respectively. The study demonstrated that the evaluation of pasture response to P application should not be limited to assessing forage yield increase. Phosphorus availability in the herbage was a better predictor of animal performance than pasture yield. The study highlights that the benefits of oversowing and fertilizer inputs are short-lived, as withholding of fertilizer in the last 2 years resulted in a loss of sown legumes and decline in animal production.

The current study was aimed at exploring the relationship between egg physical parameters that can be evaluated before incubation without egg breakage and hatchability of chick embryos. Eggs from laying hens of the White Leghorn (WL), Rhode Island White (RIW) and Rhode Island Red (RIR) lines were examined using a ranking system for analysing influence of egg parameters on hatchability. Specifically, eggs were subdivided into three groups whose non-destructive measurement values were: (i) within the mean ± standard deviation (σ), (ii) < mean minus σ and (iii) > mean plus σ. As a result, the smaller WL and RIW eggs, where values of weight, volume, surface area, length and maximum breadth were < mean minus σ, appeared to be more successful at hatching than the bigger ones. Hatchability of the more ‘round-shaped’ WL and RIW eggs, whose shape index was 0·76−0·80, tended to be higher. Effect of egg-specific gravity on hatchability varied in different layer strains, and genetic background seemed to be an essential factor determining relationship between hatchability and other egg characteristics. The RIW eggs of larger weight with a relatively small surface area appeared to have decreased hatchability, supposedly due to insufficient gas exchange of embryos.