The theme of my address is diversity in the profession of agricultural economics. I address diversity as a response, a strategy, not as an end in itself but as a conscious approach by ag economists in land grant universities seeking a useful role in the future.

I chose this theme because I am genuinely concerned about our future in the 1862 and 1890 land grants. I acknowledge up front that not all ag economists work in land grant universities but all have a stake in them as our primary reservoir of human capital. Most practicing ag economists have roots in a land grant university and depend on their products for “new blood” in business or government. My interest in diversity has been influenced by the writings of several prominent ag economists, reviewed briefly below, by recent conversations with Jim Hildreth, John Holt, and Jim Bonnen regarding the future of the land grants and by personal observations of the painful manifestations of tensions within departments in the South and elsewhere as faculty try to position themselves for an uncertain future.

A growing segment of society is concerned about a myriad of health and environmental issues related to the use of pesticides and other agricultural chemicals. Despite the leveling-off of agricultural chemical use in the 1980s, chemical use in agriculture has come to be seen as a two-edged sword. On the positive side, agricultural chemicals have become the engine for world-wide productivity gains. These chemicals have contributed to increased yields per acre and have reduced waste in storage and distribution. On the negative side, agricultural chemicals are perceived by many to present risks to the safety of the food we eat, to the quality of our drinking water, to the wildlife population, to applicators and to people who inadvertently come into point contact with them.

In anticipation of Congressional debates over an expanded environmental title in the 1990 farm bill, several studies on pesticide use and the impacts of reduction were undertaken (e.g., Smith et al., Knutson et al., Osteen and Szmedra, and GRC Economics). Osteen and Szmedra reported that the use of herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides increased steadily from post-World War II to 1982 before decreasing as crop prices declined and acreage reduction programs reduced planted acreage. Heightened concerns and perceptions about the presence of pesticides and nitrates in our food and water supplies have led to calls for the reduction and/or elimination of agricultural chemicals. For example, a National Academy of Science study has concluded and therefore fostered the perception that substantial reductions in chemical use are possible without large impacts on production and/or prices.

The term LISA was coined in 1988 as an acronym to identify a federally funded research and education program designed to address the public issue of agriculture and the environment (USDA-CSRS, p. 2). LISA is made up of two related, but different, concepts: low input and sustainable agriculture. This combination reflects a compromise between two different perspectives of the environmental issues confronting agriculture.

The low input perspective is that farmers must reduce their use of commercial chemical inputs as a means of reducing environmental and ecological risks. The sustainable agriculture perspective is that long-run productivity and utility of agriculture depend ultimately on our ability to keep farms both ecologically sound and economically viable. Reduced reliance on commercial inputs is seen as one means of addressing the ecological risks that could threaten long-run sustainability.

Entrepreneurs innovate their individual business organizations not only to deal with production and price risks, but also to cope with the risk of sanctions or penalties imposed by society's laws and regulations. More specifically, labor-intensive agricultural firms, faced with potentially large fines for violation of immigration and labor laws, increasingly modify the organization of their firms by shifting the management of routine seasonal labor jobs to independent farm labor contractors. The use of labor contracting is further intensified because of the effectiveness of labor contractors in the recruitment of illegal aliens.

Compared to their urban counterparts, the rural poor are more likely to be employed, more apt to be members of married-couple families, less likely to be children, less likely to be minority, and more likely to have assets but a negative income. This paper examines poverty rates and factors that affect mobility in and out of poverty among major categories of the rural poor. Particular attention is paid to farm workers and the rural farm population in the South. It endeavors to identify both structural conditions that perpetuate rural poverty and government interventions that ameliorate human suffering and break the cycle of poverty reproduction.

The world was astonished in 1989 by the initial collapse of socialist institutions and subsequently by the pace at which change swept across the Eastern European region. For a time, even the Soviet Union seemed to be moving toward greater political pluralism, market orientation and the effective end of the Cold War. It is now approaching two years since this political convulsion began (in Poland). This is sufficient time to enable the transition programs to take form, and to permit informed speculation about the potential for their success and, ultimately, how the Eastern European and Soviet situations could affect the farming and food sectors of our economy.

In January of 1990, Moscovites were introduced to “Big Maks” and “Kartofel fries” with the opening of a new McDonald's franchise in the heart of Moscow. A short time later, article six of the Soviet constitution was amended to remove the Communist Party's legal monopoly on power. By the end of 1990, McDonald's had surpassed the Lenin Mausoleum as the prime attraction in Moscow. The line for “Big Maks” is now longer than the line for viewing the preserved founder of the Soviet communist state. Between these events a cavalcade of economic and political events occurred. The pace of new announcements and decrees quickened during the last half of 1990 as the economy began to crumble.

Tornquist input quantity indices were used to derive total and partial factor productivity measures for U.S. cotton across time, region, and scale. Total factor productivity for U.S. cotton increased .2 percent per year between 1974 and 1982. Partial productivity measures revealed that yield growth was about .6 percent and input use grew about .4 percent per year. Cotton enterprises in Alabama and Mississippi gained and those in the Texas High Plains lost competitive advantage relative to California. In 1982, very large (1750-5900 acres) and large (950-1749 acres) cotton enterprises were 2 percent more productive than medium-size enterprises (570-949 acres).

Empirical analysis of manufacturing plant location requires the use of a single industrial site quality measure. Under hedonic price theory, the price of industrial sites can be explained by their quality characteristics. The estimated site price is included with ten other location factors in an ordered, categorical logit model of plant attraction to Georgia counties. The results inform public decisionmakers of the relative impact of site location factors and how changes in location factors can alter the probability of attracting a manufacturing plant.

A logistic regression (logit) model was developed to examine how socioeconomic characteristics of cow-calf producers influenced their perceptions of themselves as profit maximizers. Amount of pasture acreage, percent of income earned from the cow-calf operation, and desire to increase net worth and efficiently use labor significantly increased the producer's probability of claiming to be in the business primarily to maximize profits. Some sociological reasons for owning cattle significantly reduced the probability of the producer claiming to be a profit maximizer while others significantly increased the probability.

This study used a new body of quarterly data to estimate multilateral import demand relations for soybeans and soymeal. The countries of origin were the United States, Brazil, and Argentina. The areas of destination were the EEC, Japan, and Eastern Europe. The results indicated that own- and cross-price elasticities were quite large. These demand relations were then inverted and solved for prices to examine the effect on total revenue of increases in supplies from each of the exporting countries. Results showed that, in all cases except one, own-total revenue was inflexible with respect to increase in the own-quantity supplied. These results imply that an increase in exports will be associated with smaller proportional increase in revenue from exports.

Empirical tests were made of components of the corn basis in the U.S. utilizing a general theory of intertemporal price relationships for storable commodities. These tests showed that the basis consists of a risk premium, a speculative component, and a maturity basis apart from other factors such as storage costs for storable commodities. The results provide insights into factors affecting basis patterns for corn.

Conjoint analysis was used to examine buyer preferences toward farm-raised hybrid striped bass at the wholesale, retail, and restaurant levels. Low price and round form were found to be important attributes in the product preference rating for the wholesale and retail markets. The filleted form contributed the most to restaurants' preference rating. Following these, larger fish size was preferred by all markets.

Farm size and production costs are varied in a six state variable stochastic dynamic programming model that quantifies monthly hedging, storage, and cash cotton sale decisions for an Alabama cotton producer. State variables considered are: (1) cash cotton price; (2) basis level; (3) before-tax income level; (4) cotton holdings; (5) futures position; and (6) value of futures position. Results indicate that when farm size and production cost level differ, marketing decisions diverge the most for cash cotton sales at the end of the tax year and lower range of cash price (less than $.65/lb.), basis (less than -$.05/lb.), and before-tax income (less than $0.00) states.