Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-t5tsf Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-08T07:44:17.421Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Partisan Bias in Japan's Single Member Districts

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 April 2009

WILLY JOU
WILLY JOU*
Affiliation:
University of California, [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The delineation of constituency boundaries and variations in vote distribution across districts often favor certain parties at the expense of others. Applying a hitherto under-utilized formula (Brookes, 1959; Johnston et al., 1999), this study investigates whether the mechanism translating votes into seats in Japan's single-member districts results in systematic partisan advantage that may influence election outcomes. Simulations are conducted for the 2003 and 2005 general elections under two scenarios: where the governing coalition and the main opposition party receive equal vote shares, and where their vote shares are reversed from the actual results. Components of electoral bias are then disaggregated into size and distribution effects, and the impact of malapportionment, electorate size, turnout, and the role of third party/independent candidates on overall electoral bias is examined. Results show that while partisan bias exists, disadvantages toward one party in some components are likely to cancel out benefits derived from others, producing a relatively small net effect. Furthermore, electoral bias in Japan is found to award sectoral rather than partisan seat bonuses.

Type
Research Article
Information
Japanese Journal of Political Science , Volume 10 , Issue 1 , April 2009 , pp. 43 - 58
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2009

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Ansolabehere, Stephen, Snyder, James M., and Ting, Michael M. (2003), ‘Bargaining in Bicameral Legislatures: When and Why Does Malapportionment Matter?’, American Political Science Review, 97: 471–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Balinski, Michel L. and Young, H. Peyton (1982), Fair Representation: Meeting the Ideal of One Man, One Vote, New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Brookes, R.H. (1959), ‘Electoral Distortion in New Zealand’, Australian Journal of Politics and History, 5: 218–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cain, Bruce (1985), ‘Assessing the Partisan Effects of Redistricting’, American Political Science Review, 79 (2): 320–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campagna, Janet and Grofman, Bernard (1990), ‘Party Control and Partisan Bias in the 1980s Congressional Redistricting’, Journal of Politics, 52 (4): 1242–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, James E. (1996), Cheap Seats: The Democratic Party's Advantage in US House Elections, Columbus: Ohio State University Press.Google Scholar
Christensen, Raymond V. (1994), ‘Electoral Reform in Japan: How It Was Enacted and Changes It May Bring’, Asian Survey, 34: 589–605.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christensen, Ray (2004), ‘Redistricting in Japan: Lessons for the United States’, Japanese Journal of Political Science, 5 (2): 259–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christensen, Raymond V. and Johnson, Paul E. (1995), ‘Toward a Context-Rich Analysis of Electoral Systems: The Japanese Example’, American Journal of Political Science, 39 (3): 575–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, Gary W. (1997), Making Voters Count: Strategic Coordination in the World's Electoral Systems, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, Gary W. and Niou, Emerson (1994), ‘Seat Bonuses under the Single Nontransferable Vote System: Evidence from Japan and Taiwan’, Comparative Politics, 26 (2): 221–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, Gary W. and Katz, Jonathan N. (2002), Elbridge Gerry's Salamander: The Electoral Consequences of the Reapportionment Revolution, New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cranor, John D., Crawley, Gary L., and Scheele, Raymond H. (1989), ‘The Anatomy of a Gerrymander’, American Journal of Political Science, 33 (1): 222–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Curtis, Gerald L. (1988), The Japanese Way of Politics, New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Duverger, Maurice (1954), Political Parties, New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Dye, Thomas R. (1965), ‘Malapportionment and Public Policy in the States’, Journal of Politics, 27 (3): 586–601.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gallagher, Michael (1998), ‘The Political Impact of Electoral System Change in Japan and New Zealand, 1996’, Party Politics, 4: 203–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelman, Andrew and King, Gary (1994), ‘A Unified Method of Evaluating Electoral Systems and Redistricting Plans’, American Journal of Political Science, 38 (2): 514–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grofman, Bernard (1983), ‘Measures of Bias and Proportionality in Seats–Votes Relationships’, Political Methodology, 9: 295–327.Google Scholar
Grofman, Bernard, Koetzle, William, and Brunell, Thomas (1997), ‘An Integrated Perspective on the Three Potential Sources of Partisan Bias: Malapportionment, Turnout Differences, and the Geographic Distribution of Party Vote Shares’, Electoral Studies, 16 (4): 457–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gudgin, Graham and Taylor, Peter (1979), Seats, Votes, and the Spatial Organisation of Elections, London: Pion.Google Scholar
Hata, Hiroyuki (1990), ‘Malapportionment of Representation in the National Diet’, Law and Contemporary Problems, 53 (2): 157–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hickman, John C. and Kim, Chong Lim (1992), ‘Electoral Advantage, Malapportionment, and One Party Dominance in Japan’, Asian Perspective, 16: 5–25.Google Scholar
Horiuchi, Yusaku and Saito, Jun (2003), ‘Reapportionment and Redistribution: Consequences of Electoral Reform in Japan’, American Journal of Political Science, 47 (4): 669–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hrebenar, Ronald J. (1977), ‘The Politics of Electoral Reform in Japan’, Asian Survey, 17 (10): 978–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jackman, Simon (1994), ‘Measuring Electoral Bias: Australia, 1949–83’, British Journal of Political Science, 24: 319–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnston, R.J. (1979), Political, Electoral, and Spatial Systems: An Essay in Political Geography, Oxford: Clarendon Press.Google Scholar
Johnston, Ron (2002), ‘Manipulating Maps and Winning Elections: Measuring the Impact of Malapportionment and Gerrymandering’, Political Geography, 21: 1–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnston, Ron, Rossiter, David, and Pattie, Charles (1999), ‘Integrating and Decomposing the Sources of Partisan Bias: Brookes' Method and the Impact of Redistricting in Great Britain’, Electoral Studies, 18 (3): 367–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnston, Ron, Rositer, David, and Pattie, Charles (2005), ‘Disproportionality and Bias in US Presidential Elections: How Geography Helped Bush Defeat Gore but Couldn't Help Kerry Beat Bush’, Political Geography, 24: 952–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, Gary (1990), ‘Electoral Responsiveness and Partisan Bias in Multiparty Democracies’, Legislative Studies Quarterly, 15 (2): 159–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, Gary and Browning, Robert X. (1987), ‘Democratic Representation and Partisan Bias in Congressional Elections’, American Political Science Review, 81 (4): 1251–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lijphart, Arend, Pintor, Rafael Lopez, and Sone, Yasunori (1986), ‘The Limited Vote and the Single Nontransferable Vote: Lessons from the Japanese and Spanish Examples’, in Grofman, Bernard and Lijphart, Arend (eds.), Electoral Laws and Their Political Consequences, New York: Agathon Press.Google Scholar
Maeda, Ko (2006), ‘The General Election in Japan, September 2005’, Electoral Studies, 25: 621–7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McKay, Robert B. (1965), Reapportionment: The Law and Politics of Equal Representation, New York: Simon & Schuster.Google Scholar
May, John D. (1975), ‘Rural Over-representation: Pros and Cons in Recent Australian Debate’, Commonwealth and Comparative Politics, 13 (2): 132–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Monroe, Burt L. (1994), ‘Disproportionality and Malapportionment: Measuring Electoral Inequality’, Electoral Studies, 13: 132–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Niemi, Richard G. and Deegan, John (1978), ‘A Theory of Political Districting’, American Political Science Review, 72 (4): 1304–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Niemi, Richard G. and Fett, Patrick (1986), ‘The Swing Ratio: An Explanation and an Assessment’, Legislative Studies Quarterly, 11 (1): 75–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Owen, Guillermo and Grofman, Bernard (1988), ‘Optimal Partisan Gerrymandering’, Political Geography Quarterly, 7 (1): 5–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pitlik, Hans and Schneider, Friedrich (2005), ‘Legislative Malapportionment and the Politicization of Germany's Intergovernmental Transfer System’, CESifo Working Paper Series No. 1426.Google Scholar
Reed, Steven R. (2007), ‘Duverger's Law is Working in Japan’, Senkyo Kenkyu, 22: 96–106.Google Scholar
Reed, Steven R. and Thies, Michael F. (2001), ‘The Consequences of Electoral Reform in Japan’, in Shugart, Matthew Soberg and Wattenberg, Martin P. (eds.), Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: The Best of Both Worlds? Oxford University Press: New York.Google Scholar
Rossiter, D.J., Johnston, R.J., and Pattie, C.J. (1997), ‘Estimating the Partisan Impact of Redistricting in Great Britain’, British Journal of Political Science, 27: 319–31.Google Scholar
Samuels, David and Snyder, Richard (2001), ‘The Value of a Vote: Malapportionment in Comparative Perspective’, British Journal of Political Science, 31: 651–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schaap, Ross D. (2005), ‘The House of Representatives’, election in Japan, November 2003’, Electoral Studies, 24: 136–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tufte, Edward R. (1973), ‘The Relationship between Seats and Votes in Two-Party Systems’, American Political Science Review, 67 (2): 540–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar