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Explaining the Breakdown of Dominant Party Systems: Party Splits and the Mechanisms of Factional Bargaining

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 July 2014

SHIRO SAKAIYA  and
KENTARO MAEDA
SHIRO SAKAIYA
Affiliation:
Institute of Social Science, University of [email protected]
KENTARO MAEDA
Affiliation:
Faculty of Law, University of [email protected]
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Abstract

This paper presents an explanation for the breakdown of dominant party systems. In contrast to previous works that examine how ruling parties lose their dominant position as a result of interparty competition, this paper focuses on how they are undermined from within by factional conflict. Through an overview of dominant party systems in the postwar world, we show that most of the ruling parties suffered from major splits that significantly reduced their electoral strengths before their final electoral defeat. In order to explain why large groups of politicians decide to leave dominant parties that are likely to remain in power, we develop simple game-theoretic models of intraparty bargaining between party factions over the distribution of benefits from office. Our results suggest two mechanisms through which dominant parties break up. First, factional defections from dominant parties are likely to occur when they are experiencing a significant decline in public support. Second, factional defections are likely to occur when a non-mainstream faction is rapidly losing its bargaining power against the party leadership. Importantly, our results show that under certain conditions, dominant parties will break up even when their electoral prospects are much better than the opposition. We briefly discuss how these mechanisms can be applied to actual cases of dominant party systems.

Type
Research Article
Information
Japanese Journal of Political Science , Volume 15 , Issue 3 , September 2014 , pp. 397 - 415
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2014 

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