The global outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is greatly threatening the public health in the world. We reconstructed global transmissions and potential demographic expansions of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 based on genomic information. We found that intercontinental transmissions were rare in January and early February but drastically increased since late February. After world-wide implements of travel restrictions, the transmission frequencies decreased to a low level in April. We identified a total of 88 potential demographic expansions over the world based on the star-radiative networks and 75 of them were found in Europe and North America. The expansion numbers peaked in March and quickly dropped since April. These findings are highly concordant with epidemic reports and modelling results and highlight the significance of quarantine validity on the global spread of COVID-19. Our analyses indicate that the travel restrictions and social distancing measures are effective in containing the spread of COVID-19.

The origin and object of the following paper can be explained in a few words. In April, 1904, the writer published a series of 280 blood examinations (to which were added about 150 more) of natives of southern Angola (Portuguese West Africa) without recording a single instance of the presence either of trypanosomes or of spirochaetes in the circulation. Quite recently in the course of an investigation of the endemic malaria of the same district, 513 examinations made among the same people and with the same technique revealed 3 individuals harbouring trypanosomes and 4 showing spirochaetes in their blood. These observations, together with the fact that a year or so ago the natives reported no cases of Tick Fever, while recently statements are made by them that the Tick Fever of the upper Zambezi has reached Angola, and also the fact that Sleeping Sickness is reported to be advancing southward through the province, have led me strongly to suspect that these diseases have lately begun to spread markedly in my part of the colony, and that one or both of them may not inconceivably assume in the near future epidemic proportions.

Rates of acquisition and loss of Brugia malayi microfilaraemia were estimated using the parasitological data of a cohort of population in Shertallai, South India. The rate of acquisition of microfilaraemia was found to be dependent on age but not gender. The decline in the rate of acquisition of microfilaraemia in adults above 35 years could be due to the development of acquired immunity. The mean reproductive lifespan for the periodic Brugia malayi adult female worm was estimated to be 34 years and it was independent of host age and gender. The age-specific estimated proportion of population at risk (microfilaria carriers who lost their microfilaria in course of time) of developing lymphoedema approximately mirrored the observed age specific prevalence of lymphoedema in the study-population. On an average, 99% of population at risk developed manifestations of disease. The estimated population at risk of developing disease in different endemic areas is compared and its epidemiological significance is discussed.

Among the formulae which describe relationships found in physics, chemistry and biology is one commonly known as the “adsorption formula.” It graduates for a considerable range of experiment the amount of adsorption which takes place at the bounding layers of solids, fluids and gases or immiscible fluids in presence of different concentrations of the substance adsorbed. It may be written in the form x = aCn where x is the amount of the substance adsorbed; C the concentration of the adsorbed substance after equilibrium has been attained; n is an absolute constant less than unity; and a is a constant depending in value on the units of measurement.

As one of the most neglected zoonotic diseases, brucellosis has posed a serious threat to public health worldwide. This study is purposed to apply different machine learning models to improve the prediction accuracy of human brucellosis (HB) in Shaanxi, China from 2008 to 2020, under livestock husbandry intensification from a spatiotemporal perspective. We quantitatively evaluated the performance and suitability of ConvLSTM, RF, and LSTM models in epidemic forecasting, and investigated the spatial heterogeneity of how different factors drive the occurrence and transmission of HB in distinct sub-regions by using Kernel Density Analysis and Shapley Additional Explanations. Our findings demonstrated that ConvLSTM network yielded the best predictive performance with the lowest average RMSE of 13.875 and MAE values of 18.393. RF model generated an underestimated outcome while LSTM model had an overestimated one. In addition, climatic conditions, intensification of livestock keeping and socioeconomic status were identified as the dominant factors that drive the occurrence of HB in Shaanbei Plateau, Guanzhong Plain, and Shaannan Region, respectively. This work provided a comprehensive understanding of the potential risk of HB epidemics in Northwest China driven by both anthropogenic activities and natural environment, which can support further practice in disease control and prevention.

Individuals developing an HIV seroconversion illness may experience rapid disease progression. Information on seroconversion illness is rarely collected in most cohort studies; thus the aim of this study was to assess the value of the HIV test interval (the time between last negative and first positive HIV tests) as a proxy for seroconversion illness. Among 8229 seroconverters, test intervals ranged from 0–5282 days, and varied by gender, risk group, age and calendar year of seroconversion. Those with intervals [les ] 31 days had an increased hazard of AIDS (RH 1·42, P = 0·07), which was reduced slightly after adjusting for baseline factors, calendar year of follow-up, treatment and the declining CD4 count, but there was no effect on survival. Thus, it appears that if information on acute seroconversion illness is not available, then analyses of progression to AIDS in seroconverter studies could use a short test interval as a proxy measure.

At the present time owing to the difficulties arising from was conditions, and the stress of work due to the special circumstances in which the study of bacteriology is being prosecuted, we have had in some cases to modify established methods of bacteriological procedure and introduce new technique.

An investigation into the probable influence of environmental factors on the incidence of extrapulmonary tuberculous infections and into the possible explanation of their effect on regional differences in the proportional frequency of the type of infecting strain of the tubercle bacillus has been described.

The importance of substandard housing and of family history in infection with the human type of the tubercle bacillus, particularly in children, has been noted.

Circumstantial evidence of both low economic resources and milk supply influencing infection with the bovine type of the tubercle bacillus pointed to these factors being important in childhood.

I wish to acknowledge the co-operation I received from the Medical Officers of Health for the several Local Authorities within the county of Lanark.

Three influenza A (H3N2) reassortant whole virus vaccine strains with differing antibody-inducing capacities in hamsters were investigated morphologically and antigenically. Although initial measurements of virion circumference, from electron micrographs of vaccine preparations, suggested a relationship of small virion size with low immunogenicity, subsequent immunization with, and morphological investigation of, vaccine virions separated on sucrose gradients, failed to obtain populations whose antibody-inducing capacity clearly correlated with constituent virion density, size, morphology or integrity.

However, antigenic investigation using single radial haemolysis (SRH) and monoclonal antibodies revealed significant differences in antigenic specificity between the strains. Furthermore, a series of H3N2 isolates, derived using standard reassortment procedures, also showed differences in antigenic specificity in their haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) reactions with monoclonal antibodies after five passages in allantois-on-shell cultures. Variation between these isolates and their A/Victoria parent virus could be detected using SRH and hamster sera raised against each isolate.

These results demonstrate variation between candidate influenza A virus vaccine strains, all possessing the same surface (H3N2) glycoproteins, expressed as a consequence of the reassortant system used for their production.

Denmark hosted four games during the 2020 UEFA European championships (EC2020). After declining positive SARS-CoV-2 test rates in Denmark, a rise occurred during and after the tournament, concomitant with the replacement of the dominant Alpha lineage (B.1.1.7) by the Delta lineage (B.1.617.2), increasing vaccination rates and cessation of several restrictions. A cohort study including 33 227 cases was conducted from 30 May to 25 July 2021, 14 days before and after the EC2020. Included was a nested cohort with event information from big-screen events and matches at the Danish national stadium, Parken (DNSP) in Copenhagen, held from 12 June to 28 June 2021. Information from whole-genome sequencing, contact tracing and Danish registries was collected. Case–case connections were used to establish transmission trees. Cases infected on match days were compared to cases not infected on match days as a reference. The crude incidence rate ratio (IRR) of transmissions was 1.55, corresponding to 584 (1.76%) cases attributable to EC2020 celebrations. The IRR adjusted for covariates was lower (IRR 1.41) but still significant, and also pointed to a reduced number of transmissions from fully vaccinated cases (IRR 0.59). These data support the hypothesis that the EC2020 celebrations contributed to the rise of cases in Denmark in the early summer of 2021.

The brucellin skin test and the lymphocyte transformation test were compared in heifers infected with virulent Brucella abortus strain 544, heifers vaccinated against brucellosis and unexposed cattle. Results of the in vitro lymphocyte transformation test were consistently positive for all 9 Brucella-infected heifers while the skin test was consistently positive for 6 of the 9 heifers. In 7 heifers repeatedly vaccinated with B. abortus strain-19 vaccine the in vitro test classified 3 animals as positive whereas the skin test identified all the animals as infected during most of the experimental period. Four heifers injected with a single dose of B. abortus strain 19 were consistently negative to the lymphocyte transformation test while the skin test classified all the animals as infected during most of the experimental period. The skin test gave strong reactions indicative of Brucella infection in heifers vaccinated with ‘Duphavac’ and ‘Abortox’ vaccines whereas the lymphocyte transformation test was consistently negative with these vaccines. The two tests were negative in unexposed cattle. It was concluded that the in vitro test correlated better with Brucella isolation than the in vivo test did and that the lack of agreement between the results of the two tests is likely to be due to the different antigens used in the assays.

1. The ordinary method of calculating the birth-rate does not distinguish between the influence of fertility and of variations in conditions of the population as to age and marriage.

2. In ascertaining the true meaning of the great reduction of the birth-rate which has occured in the last 25 years it is necessary to have means for distinguishing between the accidental and the intrinsic causes of change.

3. A step in the right direction is made when the legitimate births are stated in terms of the married women at child-bearing ages, and the illegitimate births in terms of the unmarried women of the same ages.

4. This method fails to correct for the differences of fertility of the various ages comprised in the age-period 15–45.

5. By calculating standard fertility-rates for given populations McLean overcame the above difficulty, and was thus able to compare experiences of a given community at different times with the standard.

6. In this paper it is shown that by continuing the above process and obtaining corrected fertility-rates, the fertility-rates of different communities can be made directly comparable.

7. The inconveniences of this new and unfamiliar method, and the necessity involved in it of calculating the crude as well as the corrected fertility-rate in every instance, indicate the desirability of obtaining a factor for each community which throughout an entire intercensal period can be applied to the crude birth-rate of that community.

8. The desirability of such a factor is increased by the fact that the method of corrected fertility-rates does not take into account the proportion of married women in each population.

9. In this paper a method is described of obtaining factors, which, when applied to the readily available crude birth-rates, correct completely both for the varying proportion of married women in compared populations and for the varying fertility at different periods of married life.

10. The practical bearings of these corrected birth-rates will be discussed in a later paper.

Syphilis remains a serious public health problem in mainland China that requires attention, modelling to describe and predict its prevalence patterns can help the government to develop more scientific interventions. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, long short-term memory network (LSTM) model, hybrid SARIMA-LSTM model, and hybrid SARIMA-nonlinear auto-regressive models with exogenous inputs (SARIMA-NARX) model were used to simulate the time series data of the syphilis incidence from January 2004 to November 2023 respectively. Compared to the SARIMA, LSTM, and SARIMA-LSTM models, the median absolute deviation (MAD) value of the SARIMA-NARX model decreases by 352.69%, 4.98%, and 3.73%, respectively. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) value decreases by 73.7%, 23.46%, and 13.06%, respectively. The root mean square error (RMSE) value decreases by 68.02%, 26.68%, and 23.78%, respectively. The mean absolute error (MAE) value decreases by 70.90%, 23.00%, and 21.80%, respectively. The hybrid SARIMA-NARX and SARIMA-LSTM methods predict syphilis cases more accurately than the basic SARIMA and LSTM methods, so that can be used for governments to develop long-term syphilis prevention and control programs. In addition, the predicted cases still maintain a fairly high level of incidence, so there is an urgent need to develop more comprehensive prevention strategies.

1. A review of the few studies so far made on the high mortality from tuberculosis among elderly men, and a consideration of the available statistics, indicate that urbanization is one of the principal factors responsible.

2. In the present inquiry, which was confined to London, 445 newly diagnosed cases of tuberculosis in men over 40, together with the same number of paired controls, were studied by means of a questionnaire and of personal interview.

3. It was found that the tuberculous patients differed significantly from the controls in the following characteristics; Scots, Irish, Welsh, or foreign nationality; single, widower or divorced; resident in common lodging houses or hostels; inadequate or special diet; history of gastrectomy; a winter cough; shortness of breath; insufficient sleep; and heavy drinking and smoking. On the other hand, overtime or night work, diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis, asthma, and mental illness were distributed fairly evenly in the two groups.

4. Unfortunately no group of elderly women exists in this country living under the same sort of conditions as the elderly men studied here, so that it was impossible to determine how far the various factors considered were responsible for the high rate of late adult male tuberculosis. A study, however, of a population of established civil servants living under ordinary conditions revealed little difference between the observed rates of tuberculosis and those expected on the basis of national notification figures for men and women in the older age groups.

5. It appears that a low standard of personal hygiene, associated especially with heavy smoking and drinking and residence in loading houses, predispose to the development of tuberculosis in the elderly male. Part of the evil effect of living in common lodging houses in particular may be due to the increased risk of exposure to tuberculous infection that it entails.

6. It is tentatively concluded that the casual workers of an urbanized community are one of the principal reservoirs of tuberculous infection in large towns, and since there is no numerically comparable female population, this group, and its immediate male contacts, account in large measure for the difference between the male and female tuberculosis rates in the older age groups.

This work was initiated during the tenure of a Prophit Scholarship of the Royal College of Physicians, and completed with the aid of a grant from the Medical Research Council.

I am indebted to members of the Prophit Committee of the Royal College of Physicians for their support and encouragement, and most particularly to Dr G. S. Wilson, Director of the Public Health Laboratory Service, under whose guidance the work was carried out. Figures relating to the incidence of tuberculosis in the Civil Service are published by kind permission of Dr W. E. Chiesman, Treasury Medical Adviser, and Dr M. C. W. Long, Dr J. W. Parks, and Dr H. Stannus Stannus, whose departmental records were used to compute the figures.

I am greatly indebted to the consultants and staff of the seventeen chest clinics who co-operated in the investigation, for their interest and help in tracing patients, and to the medical superintendents of numerous sanatoria and chest hospitals, and to the surgeons who permitted me to interview patients under their care as controls.

I should like also to acknowledge the assistance received from the medical officers of health of the metropolitan boroughs who kept me informed of notifications from lodging houses in their areas, and supplied information about the accommodation.

The routine title of the long ‘note’ by Glenny and Südmersen reproduced here [1] hides two of the most significant findings in theoretical and applied immunology: a brief description of diphtheria toxoid and a comprehensive account of the primary and secondary immune response. The introduction of antitoxin treatment of diphtheria was heralded, in 1896, without exaggeration as ‘the most important advance of the [19th] Century in the medical treatment of acute infective disease’ [2]. However, there were problems with the standardization and potency of antitoxin. The former was solved by Ehrlich who, in his analysis of toxin–antitoxin interaction, postulated the existence of ‘toxoid’, a non-toxic component of toxin which combined with antitoxin [3]. The latter was solved by the general observation that repeated injections of gradually increased doses of toxin induced increasingly potent antitoxins, an important basis upon which the present paper was founded.

In order to determine whether non-lactose fermenting bacilli are numerous in fresh milk, a series of experiments was made in the early part of this year on samples of fresh dairy milk, taken in Dumfriesshire, for routine bacteriological examination. The samples were brought to the laboratory with the least possible delay, and in no case did more than seven or eight hours elapse between the time of milking and the inoculation of plates. In the majority of instances, the interval was much shorter.