Global climate change is expected to affect the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme water-related weather events such as excessive precipitation, floods, and drought. We conducted a systematic review to examine waterborne outbreaks following such events and explored their distribution between the different types of extreme water-related weather events. Four medical and meteorological databases (Medline, Embase, GeoRef, PubMed) and a global electronic reporting system (ProMED) were searched, from 1910 to 2010. Eighty-seven waterborne outbreaks involving extreme water-related weather events were identified and included, alongside 235 ProMED reports. Heavy rainfall and flooding were the most common events preceding outbreaks associated with extreme weather and were reported in 55·2% and 52·9% of accounts, respectively. The most common pathogens reported in these outbreaks were Vibrio spp. (21·6%) and Leptospira spp. (12·7%). Outbreaks following extreme water-related weather events were often the result of contamination of the drinking-water supply (53·7%). Differences in reporting of outbreaks were seen between the scientific literature and ProMED. Extreme water-related weather events represent a risk to public health in both developed and developing countries, but impact will be disproportionate and likely to compound existing health disparities.

This study investigated the relationships between Legionnaires' disease (LD) incidence and weather in Glasgow, UK, by using advanced statistical methods. Using daily meteorological data and 78 LD cases with known exact date of onset, we fitted a series of Poisson log-linear regression models with explanatory variables for air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and year, and sine-cosine terms for within-year seasonal variation. Our initial model showed an association between LD incidence and 2-day lagged humidity (positive, P = 0·0236) and wind speed (negative, P = 0·033). However, after adjusting for year-by-year and seasonal variation in cases there were no significant associations with weather. We also used normal linear models to assess the importance of short-term, unseasonable weather values. The most significant association was between LD incidence and air temperature residual lagged by 1 day prior to onset (P = 0·0014). The contextual role of unseasonably high air temperatures is worthy of further investigation. Our methods and results have further advanced understanding of the role which weather plays in risk of LD infection.

Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a type of vector-borne zoonosis sensitive to climate change. To explore the short-term effect of air temperature and amount of precipitation on HFRS incidence, a total of 13 722 clinically confirmed HFRS cases from January 1977 to December 2001 in Junan County, China were included in this study. According to symmetric bidirectional case-crossover design, the hazard period (the three calendar months preceding the month when the case was diagnosed) and the control period (the same calendar month of the year before and the year after the hazard period) matched and conditional logistic regression was used to examine the effect of monthly mean temperature and precipitation on the risk of HFRS. The results showed the facilitating climatic conditions for HFRS included: condition with moderate mean air temperature (10–25 °C) and abundant precipitation (>120 mm) 3 months before [odds ratio (OR) 1·346, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·191–1·522] and 2 months before (OR 1·193, 95% CI 1·063–1·339); and condition with temperature >25 °C and abundant precipitation (>120 mm) 3 months before (OR 1·17, 95% CI 1·004–1·363). Temperature of 10–25 °C and moderate precipitation (10–120 mm) in the current month was the most favourable condition for HFRS incidence.

The Shozu Herpes Zoster (SHEZ) Study was designed to clarify the incidence of and predictive and immunological factors for herpes zoster in a defined community-based Japanese population. As part of this series, a total of 5683 residents aged ⩾50 years received a varicella-zoster virus (VZV) skin test with VZV antigen, and 48 h later, the erythema and oedema were assessed by measuring the longest diameter. The diameters of both the erythema and oedema decreased with the increasing age of the subject. Sixty-three subjects contracted herpes zoster within a year after receiving the VZV skin test. Analysis of the herpes zoster incidence rate vs. the skin test reaction revealed that the shorter the diameter of erythema or oedema, the greater the likelihood of herpes zoster. These results demonstrated that the VZV skin test is an excellent surrogate marker for predicting the risk of herpes zoster.

We describe nine patients (eight aged <1 year) clinically diagnosed with pertussis yet laboratory-confirmed with Bordetella holmesii infections, a human pathogen normally isolated from blood. Most patients reported cough and cold symptoms. No death was reported. We report B. holmesii isolation in infants with respiratory symptoms in Argentina.

Due to the current epidemiological situation of pertussis, several countries have implemented vaccination strategies that include a booster dose for adolescents. Since there is still no evidence showing that the adolescent booster has a positive effect on the most vulnerable group represented by infants, it is difficult to universalize the recommendation to include such reinforcement. In this work we present an age-structured compartmental deterministic model that considers the outstanding epidemiological features of the disease in order to assess the impact of the booster dose at age 11 years (Tdap booster) to infants. To this end, we performed different parameterizations of the model that represent distinct possible epidemiological scenarios. The results obtained show that the inclusion of a single Tdap dose at age 11 years significantly reduces the incidence of the disease within this age group, but has a very low impact on the risk group (0–1 year). An effort to improve the coverage of the first dose would have a much greater impact on infants. These results hold in the 18 scenarios considered, which demonstrates the robustness of these conclusions.

The incidence of myocardial infarctions and influenza follow similar seasonal patterns. To determine if acute myocardial infarctions (AMIs) and ischaemic strokes are associated with influenza activity, we built time-series models using data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample. In these models, we used influenza activity to predict the incidence of AMI and ischaemic stroke. We fitted national models as well as models based on four geographical regions and five age groups. Across all models, we found consistent significant associations between AMIs and influenza activity, but not between ischaemic strokes and influenza. Associations between influenza and AMI increased with age, were greatest in those aged >80 years, and were present in all geographical regions. In addition, the natural experiment provided by the second wave of the influenza pandemic in 2009 provided further evidence of the relationship between influenza and AMI, because both series peaked in the same non-winter month.

It is difficult to assess the mortality burden of influenza epidemics in tropical countries. Until recently, the burden of influenza was believed to be negligible in Africa. We assessed the impact of the 2009 influenza epidemic on mortality in Madagascar by conducting Poisson regression analysis on mortality data from the deaths registry, after the first wave of the 2009 A(H1N1) virus pandemic. There were 20% more human deaths than expected in Antananarivo, Madagascar in November 2009, with excess mortality in the ⩾50 years age group (relative risk 1·41). Furthermore, the number of deaths from pulmonary disease was significantly higher than the number of deaths from other causes during this pandemic period. These results suggest that the A(H1N1) 2009 virus pandemic may have been accompanied by an increase in mortality.

The aim of this study was to evaluate potential sampling strategies for detection of infected flocks that could be applied during an outbreak of low pathogenicity notifiable avian influenza (LPNAI) initiated in duck holdings, following initial detection. A simulation model of avian influenza virus transmission and spread within and between holdings, respectively, was used to predict the impact on the size and duration of an outbreak of (i) changing the tracing window within which premises that might be the source of infection or that may have been infected by the index premises were sampled and (ii) changing the number of birds sampled in the flock being tested. It has shown that there is potential benefit in increasing the tracing window in terms of reducing the likelihood of a large outbreak. It has also shown that there is comparatively little benefit from increasing the number of birds sampled per flock.

We investigated the first cluster of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 reported in Brazil in May 2009. The index case-patient had travelled from the USA and had contact with 11 relatives before she presented with symptoms. We conducted face-to-face or telephone interviews with the index case-patient and all suspect cases. We found evidence of pre-symptomatic transmission of the virus to four of her contacts. This finding has public health implications because it indicates that viral transmission in communities may not be prevented solely by isolating symptomatic case-patients.

Influenza surveillance in Danish intensive care units (ICUs) was performed during the 2009/10 and 2010/11 influenza seasons to monitor the burden on ICUs. All 44 Danish ICUs reported aggregate data for incidence and point prevalence, and case-based demographical and clinical parameters. Additional data on microbiological testing, vaccination and death were obtained from national registers. Ninety-six patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 were recorded in 2009/10; 106 with influenza A and 42 with influenza B in 2010/11. The mean age of influenza A patients was higher in 2010/11 than in 2009/10, 53 vs. 44 years (P = 0·004). No differences in other demographic and clinical parameters were detected between influenza A and B patients. In conclusion, the number of patients with severe influenza was higher in Denmark during the 2010/11 than the 2009/10 season with a shift towards older age groups in influenza A patients. Influenza B caused severe illness and needs consideration in clinical and public health policy.

The domestic poultry population in Vietnam has been vaccinated against highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 since 2005. Since then, outbreaks have continued to occur without a clear understanding of the mechanisms involved. The general objective of this study was to understand the epidemiology of the disease in the context of vaccination and to draw some conclusions about vaccination efficacy in the domestic poultry population of the Red River Delta area. Five cross-sectional surveys to measure the serological and virological prevalence in vaccinated and unvaccinated poultry were performed from the end of 2008 to June 2010. The global seroprevalence was 24% (95% confidence interval 19·9–28·2). Determinants of vaccine immunogenicity were identified separately in chickens and ducks as well as determinants of the seroconversion in unvaccinated birds. The results highlight the difficulties in maintaining good flock immunity in poultry populations using inactivated vaccine in the field with two vaccination rounds per year, and in preventing circulation of virus in co-existing unvaccinated poultry.

Between April and August 2005 Christchurch, New Zealand experienced an outbreak of Legionnaires' disease. There were 19 laboratory-confirmed case including three deaths. Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 (Lpsg1) was identified as the causative agent for all cases. A case-control study indicated a geographical association between the cases but no specific common exposures. Rapid spatial epidemiological investigation confirmed the association and identified seven spatially significant case clusters. The clusters were all sourced in the same area and exhibited a clear anisotropic process (noticeable direction) revealing a plume effect consistent with aerosol dispersion from a prevailing southwesterly wind. Four out of five cases tested had indistinguishable allele profiles that also matched environmental isolates from a water cooling tower within the centre of the clusters. This tower was considered the most probable source for these clusters. The conclusion would suggest a maximum dispersal distance in this outbreak of 11·6 km. This work illustrated the value of geostatistical techniques for infectious disease epidemiology and for providing timely information during outbreak investigations.

This cohort study examines trends in pneumonia mortality in Finland and the effects of a WHO recommendation restricting the registering of pneumonia as the underlying cause of death (COD) for several chronic diseases. All cases having pneumonia in any COD fields in 2000–2008 were extracted from the COD statistics. We examined trends in underlying-cause pneumonia mortality where pneumonia was also the immediate COD. Results are presented as age-specific and age-standardized rates. In the study period 2000–2008, there were 90 626 deaths with pneumonia in COD fields, while the underlying-cause pneumonia mortality rate decreased from 32 to 6/100 000 person-years. Immediate-cause pneumonia was less often chosen as underlying-cause towards 2008 suggesting an effect from changing coding practices. Changes in coding practices need to be considered when comparing different countries or time periods in pneumonia mortality.

We used data from BioSense, a national electronic surveillance system, to describe pneumonia in hospitalized patients with influenza-like illness (ILI). Ninety-five hospitals from 20 states reported ICD-9-CM-coded inpatient final diagnosis data during the study period of September 2007 to February 2010. We compared the characteristics of persons with and without pneumonia among those with ILI-related hospitalizations. BioSense captured 26 987 ILI-related inpatient hospitalizations; 8979 (33%) had a diagnosis of pneumonia. Analysis of trends showed highest counts of pneumonia during the 2007–2008 season and the second 2009 pandemic wave. Pneumonia was more common with increasing age. Microbiology and pharmacy data were available for a subset of patients; 107 (5%) with pneumonia had a bloodstream infection and 17% of patients were prescribed antiviral treatment. Our findings demonstrate the potential utility of electronic healthcare data to track trends in ILI and pneumonia, identify risk factors for disease, identify bacteraemia in patients with pneumonia, and monitor antiviral use.

This study was conducted during the 2008–2009 respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) season in France to compare hospitalization rates for bronchiolitis (RSV-confirmed and all types) between very preterm infants (<33 weeks' gestational age, WGA) without bronchopulmonary dysplasia and full-term infants (39–41 WGA) matched for date of birth, gender and birth location, and to evaluate the country-specific risk factors for bronchiolitis hospitalization. Data on hospitalizations were collected both retrospectively and prospectively for 498 matched infants (249 per group) aged <6 months at the beginning of the RSV season. Compared to full-term infants, preterm infants had a fourfold [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·36–11·80] and a sevenfold (95% CI 2·79–17·57) higher risk of being hospitalized for bronchiolitis, RSV-confirmed and all types, respectively. Prematurity was the only factor that significantly increased the risk of being hospitalized for bronchiolitis. The risk of multiple hospitalizations for bronchiolitis in the same infant significantly increased with male gender and the presence of siblings aged ⩾2 years.

The transmission of human metapneumovirus (hMPV) among family members is not well understood. We identified 15 families in which multiple members were diagnosed with hMPV infection by real-time PCR in 2008 and 2010. Index patients ranged in age from 2 years to 11 years (median 5 years), and all 15 index cases were children who attended primary school, kindergarten, or nursery school. Contact patients ranged in age from 2 months to 46 years (median 6 years). Excluding five adult cases, contact patients were significantly younger than index patients (P = 0·0389). Of the 12 contact children, seven (58%) were infants who were taken care of at home. The serial interval between the onset of symptoms in an index patient and the onset of symptoms in a contact patient was estimated to be 5 days. These results suggest that the control of school-based outbreaks is important for preventing hMPV infection in infants.

A total of 2475 animals from Germany, both captive and wild, were tested for antibodies against Francisella tularensis to obtain more knowledge about the presence of this pathogen in Germany. An indirect and a competitive ELISA served as screening methods, positive and inconclusive samples were confirmed by Western blot. Of the zoo animals sampled between 1992 and 2007 (n = 1122), three (0·3%) were seropositive. The seroconversion of a hippopotamus in Berlin Zoo was documented. From 1353 serum samples of wild foxes (Vulpes vulpes), raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides) and wild boars (Sus scrofa), collected between 2005 and 2009 in the federal state of Brandenburg (surrounding Berlin), a total of 101 (7·5%) tested positive for antibodies to F. tularensis lipopolysaccharide. Our results indicate a higher seroprevalence of F. tularensis in wildlife in eastern Germany than commonly assumed. Furthermore, we found foxes and raccoon dogs to be biological indicators for tularaemia.

Bartonella spp. are increasingly implicated in infectious endocarditis cases in the UK. Herein, we attempted to quantify their role in this syndrome and explored the epidemiology of Bartonella-associated endocarditis in the UK. Between November 2005 and October 2010, samples from 685 endocarditis patients were submitted to the Health Protection Agency for Bartonella serology. Serological evidence of infection was obtained for 57 (8·3%) patients. PCR-based evidence of infection was obtained from 13 out of 14 patients for whom heart valve tissue was available, with Bartonella quintana implicated in 12 cases and B. henselae in one. Six patients with B. quintana endocarditis were recent immigrants into the UK, of whom four lived in poor socioeconomic conditions. These results indicate that Bartonella is a not uncommon cause of endocarditis in the UK and should be considered particularly in patients raised in eastern Europe and/or with a history of homelessness or alcoholism.

The Netherlands experienced an unprecedented outbreak of Q fever between 2007 and 2010. The Jeroen Bosch Hospital (JBH) in 's-Hertogenbosch is located in the centre of the epidemic area. Based on Q fever screening programmes, seroprevalence of IgG phase II antibodies to Coxiella burnetii in the JBH catchment area was 10·7% [785 tested, 84 seropositive, 95% confidence interval (CI) 8·5–12·9]. Seroprevalence appeared not to be influenced by age, gender or area of residence. Extrapolating these data, an estimated 40 600 persons (95% CI 32 200–48 900) in the JBH catchment area have been infected by C. burnetii and are, therefore, potentially at risk for chronic Q fever. This figure by far exceeds the nationwide number of notified symptomatic acute Q fever patients and illustrates the magnitude of the Dutch Q fever outbreak. Clinicians in epidemic Q fever areas should be alert for chronic Q fever, even if no acute Q fever is reported.