Due to the F2 ionospheric layer’s ability to reflect radio waves, the foF2 critical frequency is essential since sudden irregularities can disrupt communication and navigation systems, affecting the weather forecast’s accuracy. This paper aims to develop accurate foF2 critical frequency prediction up to 24 hours ahead, focusing on mid and high latitudes, using the long short-term memory (LSTM) model covering the 24th solar cycle from 2008 to 2019. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model, a comparative analysis is conducted with commonly referenced machine learning techniques, including linear regression, decision tree algorithms, and multilayer perceptron (MLP) using the Taylor diagram and error plots. The study involved five monitoring stations, different years with minimum and maximum solar activity, and prediction timeframes. Through extensive experimentation, a comprehensive set of outcomes is evaluated across diverse metrics. The findings conclusively established that the LSTM model has demonstrated superior performance compared to the other models across all stations and years. On average, LSTM is 1.2 times better than the second-best model (DT), 1.6 times as effective as the multilayer perceptron MLP, and three times more accurate than linear regression. The results of this research hold promise for increasing the precision of foF2-prediction, with potential implications for enhancing communication systems and weather forecasting capabilities.

Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, so-called weather regimes, modulate the occurrence of extreme events such as heatwaves or extreme precipitation. In their role as mediators between long-range teleconnections and local impacts, weather regimes have demonstrated potential in improving long-term climate projections as well as sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts. However, existing methods for identifying weather regimes are not specifically designed to capture the relevant physical processes responsible for variations in the impact variable in question. This paper introduces a novel probabilistic machine learning method, RMM-VAE, for identifying weather regimes targeted to a local-scale impact variable. Based on a variational autoencoder architecture, the method combines non-linear dimensionality reduction with a prediction task and probabilistic clustering in one coherent architecture. The new method is applied to identify circulation patterns over the Mediterranean region targeted to precipitation over Morocco and compared to three existing approaches: two established linear methods and another machine-learning approach. The RMM-VAE method identifies regimes that are more predictive of the target variable compared to the two linear methods, both in terms of terciles and extremes in precipitation, while also improving the reconstruction of the input space. Further, the regimes identified by the RMM-VAE method are also more robust and persistent compared to the alternative machine learning method. The results demonstrate the potential benefit of the new method for use in various climate applications such as sub-seasonal forecasting, and illustrate the trade-offs involved in targeted clustering.

In the context of the ongoing biodiversity crisis, understanding forest ecosystems, their tree species composition, and especially the successional stages of their development is crucial. They collectively shape the biodiversity within forests and thereby influence the ecosystem services that forests provide, yet this information is not readily available on a large scale. Remote sensing techniques offer promising solutions for obtaining area-wide information on tree species composition and their successional stages. While optical data are often freely available in appropriate quality over large scales, obtaining light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data, which provide valuable information about forest structure, is more challenging. LiDAR data are mostly acquired by public authorities across several years and therefore heterogeneous in quality. This study aims to assess if heterogeneous LiDAR data can support area-wide modeling of forest successional stages at the tree species group level. Different combinations of spectral satellite data (Sentinel-2) and heterogeneous airborne LiDAR data, collected by the federal government of Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, were utilized to model up to three different successional stages of seven tree species groups. When incorporating heterogeneous LiDAR data into random forest models with spatial variable selection and spatial cross-validation, significant accuracy improvements of up to 0.23 were observed. This study shows the potential of not dismissing initially seemingly unusable heterogeneous LiDAR data for ecological studies. We advocate for a thorough examination to determine its usefulness for model enhancement. A practical application of this approach is demonstrated, in the context of mapping successional stages of tree species groups at a regional level.

Precipitation is one of the most relevant weather and climate processes. Its formation rate is sensitive to perturbations such as by the interactions between aerosols, clouds, and precipitation. These interactions constitute one of the biggest uncertainties in determining the radiative forcing of climate change. High-resolution simulations such as the ICOsahedral non-hydrostatic large-eddy model (ICON-LEM) offer valuable insights into these interactions. However, due to exceptionally high computation costs, it can only be employed for a limited period and area. We address this challenge by developing new models powered by emerging machine learning approaches capable of forecasting autoconversion rates—the rate at which small droplets collide and coalesce becoming larger droplets—from satellite observations providing long-term global spatial coverage for more than two decades. In particular, our approach involves two phases: (1) we develop machine learning models which are capable of predicting autoconversion rates by leveraging high-resolution climate model data, (2) we repurpose our best machine learning model to predict autoconversion rates directly from satellite observations. We compare the performance of our machine learning models against simulation data under several different conditions, showing from both visual and statistical inspections that our approaches are able to identify key features of the reference simulation data to a high degree. Additionally, the autoconversion rates obtained from the simulation output and satellite data (predicted) demonstrate statistical concordance. By efficiently predicting this, we advance our comprehension of one of the key processes in precipitation formation, crucial for understanding cloud responses to anthropogenic aerosols and, ultimately, climate change.

Eight major supply chains contribute to more than 50% of the global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). These supply chains range from raw materials to end-product manufacturing. Hence, it is critical to accurately estimate the carbon footprint of these supply chains, identify GHG hotspots, explain the factors that create the hotspots, and carry out what-if analysis to reduce the carbon footprint of supply chains. Towards this, we propose an enterprise decarbonization accelerator framework with a modular structure that automates carbon footprint estimation, identification of hotspots, explainability, and what-if analysis to recommend measures to reduce the carbon footprint of supply chains. To illustrate the working of the framework, we apply it to the cradle-to-gate extent of the palm oil supply chain of a leading palm oil producer. The framework identified that the farming stage is the hotspot in the considered supply chain. As the next level of analysis, the framework identified the hotspots in the farming stage and provided explainability on factors that created hotspots. We discuss the what-if scenarios and the recommendations generated by the framework to reduce the carbon footprint of the hotspots and the resulting impact on palm oil tree yield.

Classical approaches for flood prediction apply numerical methods for the solution of partial differential equations that capture the physics of inundation processes (e.g., the 2D Shallow Water equations). However, traditional inundation models are still unable to satisfy the requirements of many relevant applications, including early-warning systems, high-resolution (or large spatial domain) simulations, and robust inference over distributions of inputs (e.g., rainfall events). Machine learning (ML) approaches are a promising alternative to physics-based models due to their ability to efficiently capture correlations between relevant inputs and outputs in a data-driven fashion. In particular, once trained, ML models can be tested/deployed much more efficiently than classical approaches. Yet, few ML-based solutions for spatio-temporal flood prediction have been developed, and their reliability/accuracy is poorly understood. In this paper, we propose FloodGNN-GRU, a spatio-temporal flood prediction model that combines a graph neural network (GNN) and a gated recurrent unit (GRU) architecture. Compared to existing approaches, FloodGNN-GRU (i) employs a graph-based model (GNN); (ii) operates on both spatial and temporal dimensions; and (iii) processes the water flow velocities as vector features, instead of scalar features. We evaluate FloodGNN-GRU using a LISFLOOD-FP simulation of Hurricane Harvey (2017) in Houston, Texas. Our results, based on several metrics, show that FloodGNN-GRU outperforms several data-driven alternatives in terms of accuracy. Moreover, our approach can be trained 100x faster and tested 1000x faster than the time required to run a comparable simulation. These findings illustrate the potential of ML-based methods to efficiently emulate physics-based inundation models, especially for short-term predictions.

Atmospheric chemical reactions play an important role in air quality and climate change. While the structure and dynamics of individual chemical reactions are fairly well understood, the emergent properties of the entire atmospheric chemical system, which can involve many different species that participate in many different reactions, are not well described. In this work, we leverage graph-theoretic techniques to characterize patterns of interaction (“motifs”) in three different representations of gas-phase atmospheric chemistry, termed “chemical mechanisms.” These widely used mechanisms, the master chemical mechanism, the GEOS-Chem mechanism, and the Super-Fast mechanism, vary dramatically in scale and application, but they all generally aim to simulate the abundance and variability of chemical species in the atmosphere. This motif analysis quantifies the fundamental patterns of interaction within the mechanisms, which are directly related to their construction. For example, the gas-phase chemistry in the very small Super-Fast mechanism is entirely composed of bimolecular reactions, and its motif distribution matches that of an individual bimolecular reaction well. The larger and more complex mechanisms show emergent motif distributions that differ strongly from any specific reaction type, consistent with their complexity. The proposed motif analysis demonstrates that while these mechanisms all have a similar design goal, their higher-order structure of interactions differs strongly and thus provides a novel set of tools for exploring differences across chemical mechanisms.

In environmental science, where information from sensor devices are sparse, data fusion for mapping purposes is often based on geostatistical approaches. We propose a methodology called adaptive distance attention that enables us to fuse sparse, heterogeneous, and mobile sensor devices and predict values at locations with no previous measurement. The approach allows for automatically weighting the measurements according to a priori quality information about the sensor device without using complex and resource-demanding data assimilation techniques. Both ordinary kriging and the general regression neural network (GRNN) are integrated into this attention with their learnable parameters based on deep learning architectures. We evaluate this method using three static phenomena with different complexities: a case related to a simplistic phenomenon, topography over an area of 196 $ {km}^2 $ and to the annual hourly $ {NO}_2 $ concentration in 2019 over the Oslo metropolitan region (1026 $ {km}^2 $). We simulate networks of 100 synthetic sensor devices with six characteristics related to measurement quality and measurement spatial resolution. Generally, outcomes are promising: we significantly improve the metrics from baseline geostatistical models. Besides, distance attention using the Nadaraya–Watson kernel provides as good metrics as the attention based on the kriging system enabling the possibility to alleviate the processing cost for fusion of sparse data. The encouraging results motivate us in keeping adapting distance attention to space-time phenomena evolving in complex and isolated areas.

The global increase in observed forest dieback, characterized by the death of tree foliage, heralds widespread decline in forest ecosystems. This degradation causes significant changes to ecosystem services and functions, including habitat provision and carbon sequestration, which can be difficult to detect using traditional monitoring techniques, highlighting the need for large-scale and high-frequency monitoring. Contemporary developments in the instruments and methods to gather and process data at large scales mean this monitoring is now possible. In particular, the advancement of low-cost drone technology and deep learning on consumer-level hardware provide new opportunities. Here, we use an approach based on deep learning and vegetation indices to assess crown dieback from RGB aerial data without the need for expensive instrumentation such as LiDAR. We use an iterative approach to match crown footprints predicted by deep learning with field-based inventory data from a Mediterranean ecosystem exhibiting drought-induced dieback, and compare expert field-based crown dieback estimation with vegetation index-based estimates. We obtain high overall segmentation accuracy (mAP: 0.519) without the need for additional technical development of the underlying Mask R-CNN model, underscoring the potential of these approaches for non-expert use and proving their applicability to real-world conservation. We also find that color-coordinate based estimates of dieback correlate well with expert field-based estimation. Substituting ground truth for Mask R-CNN model predictions showed negligible impact on dieback estimates, indicating robustness. Our findings demonstrate the potential of automated data collection and processing, including the application of deep learning, to improve the coverage, speed, and cost of forest dieback monitoring.

Space-borne passive microwave (PMW) data provide rich information on atmospheric state, including cloud structure and underlying surface properties. However, PMW data are sparse and limited due to low Earth orbit collection, resulting in coarse Earth system sampling. This study demonstrates that Bayesian deep learning (BDL) is a promising technique for predicting synthetic microwave (MW) data and its uncertainties from more ubiquitously available geostationary infrared observations. Our BDL models decompose predicted uncertainty into aleatoric (irreducible) and epistemic (reducible) components, providing insights into uncertainty origin and guiding model improvement. Low and high aleatoric uncertainty values are characteristic of clear sky and cloudy regions, respectively, suggesting that expanding the input feature vector to allow richer information content could improve model performance. The initially high average epistemic uncertainty metrics quantified by most models indicate that the training process would benefit from a greater data volume, leading to improved performance at most studied MW frequencies. Using quantified epistemic uncertainty to select the most useful additional training data (a training dataset size increase of 3.6%), the study reduced the mean absolute error and root mean squared error by 1.74% and 1.38%, respectively. The broader impact of this study is the demonstration of how predicted epistemic uncertainty can be used to select targeted training data. This allows for the curation of smaller, more optimized training datasets and also allows for future active learning studies.

Aerosol-cloud interactions constitute the largest source of uncertainty in assessments of anthropogenic climate change. This uncertainty arises in part from the difficulty in measuring the vertical distributions of aerosols, and only sporadic vertically resolved observations are available. We often have to settle for less informative vertically aggregated proxies such as aerosol optical depth (AOD). In this work, we develop a framework for the vertical disaggregation of AOD into extinction profiles, that is, the measure of light extinction throughout an atmospheric column, using readily available vertically resolved meteorological predictors such as temperature, pressure, or relative humidity. Using Bayesian nonparametric modeling, we devise a simple Gaussian process prior over aerosol vertical profiles and update it with AOD observations to infer a distribution over vertical extinction profiles. To validate our approach, we use ECHAM-HAM aerosol-climate model data which offers self-consistent simulations of meteorological covariates, AOD, and extinction profiles. Our results show that, while very simple, our model is able to reconstruct realistic extinction profiles with well-calibrated uncertainty, outperforming by an order of magnitude the idealized baseline which is typically used in satellite AOD retrieval algorithms. In particular, the model demonstrates a faithful reconstruction of extinction patterns arising from aerosol water uptake in the boundary layer. Observations however suggest that other extinction patterns, due to aerosol mass concentration, particle size, and radiative properties, might be more challenging to capture and require additional vertically resolved predictors.

Environmental data science (EDS) is a nascent STEM sub-discipline where we have the opportunity to shape the culture, to work to create an environment that welcomes broad participation, and to build a culture of inclusivity. Like many STEM disciplines, some may be excluded from participating in EDS due to historical legacies, systemic barriers, and social prejudices that create unequal opportunities and access. To better understand barriers to participation, and to identify solutions and priorities, we conducted a survey of the participants of the first Environmental Data Science Summit. We identified three barriers to participation that matched with three solutions and priorities for the field. The most commonly identified barrier was an unsupportive work environment for minorities and a male-dominated culture; creating a supportive community and work environment, particularly for minorities, was identified as both a solution and a priority for broadening participation in EDS. The second most commonly identified barrier pertained to training and maintaining relevance— specifically, late or informal training experiences and time constraints limiting time to upskill. The solution and priority proposed included access to good mentors and teachers, open data and educational materials, and increased applicability of projects. Finally, the third most commonly identified barrier, solution, and priority relate to financial concerns and the funding landscape, with both the solution and priority identified as improving funding and salary conditions. The results of this study identify the key barrier to participation in EDS and highlight potential solutions to lower these barriers to build a more equitable future.

The general public and scientific community alike are abuzz over the release of ChatGPT and GPT-4. Among many concerns being raised about the emergence and widespread use of tools based on large language models (LLMs) is the potential for them to propagate biases and inequities. We hope to open a conversation within the environmental data science community to encourage the circumspect and responsible use of LLMs. Here, we pose a series of questions aimed at fostering discussion and initiating a larger dialogue. To improve literacy on these tools, we provide background information on the LLMs that underpin tools like ChatGPT. We identify key areas in research and teaching in environmental data science where these tools may be applied, and discuss limitations to their use and points of concern. We also discuss ethical considerations surrounding the use of LLMs to ensure that as environmental data scientists, researchers, and instructors, we can make well-considered and informed choices about engagement with these tools. Our goal is to spark forward-looking discussion and research on how as a community we can responsibly integrate generative AI technologies into our work.

Thermohaline staircases are a widespread stratification feature that impacts the vertical transport of heat and nutrients and are consistently observed throughout the Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean. Observations of staircases from the same time period and geographic region form clusters in temperature-salinity (T–S) space. Here, for the first time, we use an automated clustering algorithm called the hierarchical density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise to detect and connect individual well-mixed staircase layers across profiles from ice-tethered profilers. Our application only requires an estimate of the typical layer thickness and expected salinity range of staircases. We compare this method to two previous studies that used different approaches to detect layers and reproduce several results, including the mean lateral density ratio $ {R}_L $ and that the difference in salinity between neighboring layers is a magnitude larger than the salinity variance within a layer. We find that we can accurately and automatically track individual layers in coherent staircases across time and space between different profiles. In evaluating the algorithm’s performance, we find evidence of different physical features, namely splitting or merging layers and remnant intrusions. Further, we find a dependence of $ {R}_L $ on pressure, whereas previous studies have reported constant $ {R}_L $. Our results demonstrate that clustering algorithms are an effective and parsimonious method of identifying staircases in ocean profile data.

We have developed probabilistic models to estimate the likelihood of harmful algae presence and outbreaks along the Norwegian coast, which can help optimization of the national monitoring program and the planning of mitigation actions. We employ support vector machines to calibrate probabilistic models for estimating the presence and harmful abundance (HA) of eight toxic algae found along the Norwegian coast, including Alexandrium spp., Alexandrium tamarense, Dinophysis acuta, Dinophysis acuminata, Dinophysis norvegica, Pseudo-nitzschia spp., Protoceratium reticulatum, and Azadinium spinosum. The inputs are sea surface temperature, photosynthetically active radiation, mixed layer depth, and sea surface salinity. The probabilistic models are trained with data from 2006 to 2013 and tested with data from 2014 to 2019. The presence models demonstrate good statistical performance across all taxa, with R (observed presence frequency vs. predicted probability) ranging from 0.69 to 0.98 and root mean squared error ranging from 0.84% to 7.84%. Predicting the probability of HA is more challenging, and the HA models only reach skill with four taxa (Alexandrium spp., A. tamarense, D. acuta, and A. spinosum). There are large differences in seasonal and geographical variability and sensitivity to the model input of different taxa, which are presented and discussed. The models estimate geographical regions and periods with relatively higher risk of toxic species presence and HA, and might optimize the harmful algae monitoring. The method can be extended to other regions as it relies only on remote sensing and model data as input and running national programs of toxic algae monitoring.

Complex physical processes that are inherent to rainfall lead to the challenging task of its prediction. To contribute to the improvement of rainfall prediction, artificial neural network (ANN) models were developed using a multilayer perceptron (MLP) approach to predict monthly rainfall 2 months in advance for six geographically diverse weather stations across the Benin Republic. For this purpose, 12 lagged values of atmospheric data were used as predictors. The models were trained using data from 1959 to 2017 and tested for 4 years (2018–2021). The proposed method was compared to long short-term memory (LSTM) and climatology forecasts (CFs). The prediction performance was evaluated using five statistical measures: root mean square error, mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, coefficient of determination, and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient. Furthermore, Taylor diagrams, violin plots, box error, and Kruskal–Wallis test were used to assess the robustness of the model’s forecast. The results revealed that MLP gives better results than LSTM and CF. The NSE obtained with the MLP, LSTM, and CF models during the test period ranges from 0.373 to 0.885, 0.297 to 0.875, and 0.335 to 0.845, respectively, depending on the weather station. Rainfall predictability was more accurate, with 0.512 improvement in NSE using MLP at higher latitudes across the country, showing the effect of geographic regions on prediction model results. In summary, this research has revealed the potential of ANN techniques in predicting monthly rainfall 2 months ahead, supplying valuable insights for decision-makers in the Republic of Benin.

Political opposition to fiscal climate policy, such as a carbon tax, typically appeals to fiscal conservative ideology. Here, we ask to what extent public opposition to the carbon tax in Canada is, in fact, ideological in origin. As an object of study, ideology is a latent belief structure over a set of issue topics—and in particular their relationships—as revealed through stated opinions. Ideology is thus amenable to a generative modeling approach within the text-as-data paradigm. We use the Structural Topic Model, which generates word content from a set of latent topics and mixture weights placed on them. We fit the model to open-ended survey responses of Canadians elaborating on their support of or opposition to a carbon tax, then use it to infer the set of mixture weights used by each response. We demonstrate this set, moreso than the observed word use, serves efficient discrimination of opposition from support, with near-perfect accuracy on held-out data. We then operationalize ideology as the empirical distribution of inferred topic mixture weights. We propose and use an evaluation of ideology-driven beliefs based on four statistics of this distribution capturing the specificity, variability, expressivity, and alignment of the underlying ideology. We find that the ideology behind responses from respondents who opposed the carbon tax is more specific and aligned, much less expressive, and of similar variability as compared with those who support the tax. We discuss the implications of our results for climate policy and of broad application of our approach in social science.

We present a data-driven emulator, a stochastic weather generator (SWG), suitable for estimating probabilities of prolonged heat waves in France and Scandinavia. This emulator is based on the method of analogs of circulation to which we add temperature and soil moisture as predictor fields. We train the emulator on an intermediate complexity climate model run and show that it is capable of predicting conditional probabilities (forecasting) of heat waves out of sample. Special attention is payed that this prediction is evaluated using a proper score appropriate for rare events. To accelerate the computation of analogs, dimensionality reduction techniques are applied and the performance is evaluated. The probabilistic prediction achieved with SWG is compared with the one achieved with a convolutional neural network (CNN). With the availability of hundreds of years of training data, CNNs perform better at the task of probabilistic prediction. In addition, we show that the SWG emulator trained on 80 years of data is capable of estimating extreme return times of order of thousands of years for heat waves longer than several days more precisely than the fit based on generalized extreme value distribution. Finally, the quality of its synthetic extreme teleconnection patterns obtained with SWG is studied. We showcase two examples of such synthetic teleconnection patterns for heat waves in France and Scandinavia that compare favorably to the very long climate model control run.

Domain adaptation is important in agriculture because agricultural systems have their own individual characteristics. Applying the same treatment practices (e.g., fertilization) to different systems may not have the desired effect due to those characteristics. Domain adaptation is also an inherent aspect of digital twins. In this work, we examine the potential of transfer learning for domain adaptation in pasture digital twins. We use a synthetic dataset of grassland pasture simulations to pretrain and fine-tune machine learning metamodels for nitrogen response rate prediction. We investigate the outcome in locations with diverse climates, and examine the effect on the results of including more weather and agricultural management practices data during the pretraining phase. We find that transfer learning seems promising to make the models adapt to new conditions. Moreover, our experiments show that adding more weather data on the pretraining phase has a small effect on fine-tuned model performance compared to adding more management practices. This is an interesting finding that is worth further investigation in future studies.

Transparent, understandable, and persuasive recommendations support the electricity consumers’ behavioral change to tackle the energy efficiency problem. This paper proposes an explainable multi-agent recommendation system for load shifting for household appliances. First, we extend a novel multi-agent approach by designing and implementing an Explainability Agent that provides explainable recommendations for optimal appliance scheduling in a textual and visual manner. Second, we enhance the predictive capacity of other agents by including weather data and applying state-of-the-art models (i.e., k-nearest-neighbors, extreme gradient boosting, adaptive boosting, Random Forest, logistic regression, and explainable boosting machines). Since we want to help the user understand a single recommendation, we focus on local explainability approaches. In particular, we apply post-model approaches local, interpretable, model-agnostic explanation and SHapley Additive exPlanations as model-agnostic tools that can explain the predictions of the chosen classifiers. We further provide an overview of the predictive and explainability performance. Our results show a substantial improvement in the performance of the multi-agent system while at the same time opening up the “black box” of recommendations.