We investigate a model in which we connect slowly time varying unconditional long-run volatility with short-run conditional volatility whose representation is given as a semi-strong GARCH(1,1) process with heavy tailed errors. We focus on robust estimation of both long-run and short-run volatilities. Our estimation is semiparametric since the long-run volatility is totally unspecified whereas the short-run conditional volatility is a parametric semi-strong GARCH(1,1) process. We propose different robust estimation methods for nonstationary and strictly stationary GARCH parameters with nonparametric long-run volatility function. Our estimation is based on a two-step LAD procedure. We establish the relevant asymptotic theory of the proposed estimators. Numerical results lend support to our theoretical results.

This paper establishes uniform consistency results for nonparametric kernel density and regression estimators when time series regressors concerned are nonstationary null recurrent Markov chains. Under suitable regularity conditions, we derive uniform convergence rates of the estimators. Our results can be viewed as a nonstationary extension of some well-known uniform consistency results for stationary time series.

The article reviews the early history of the Cowles Commission (CC), its close and intertwined relations with the Econometric Society (ES), and the influence and guidance of Ragnar Frisch. It provides detail on three rounds of choosing a research director for CC in 1937–38, in 1939 and, particularly, at the end of 1942. Haavelmo’s work in the early 1940s came to play a major role for the econometric research at the Cowles Commission under Jacob Marschak as research director 1943–48. The article points to the importance of Abraham Wald and Jacob Marschak for the success of Haavelmo’s venture and its influence and tells the story of how it came about that Haavelmo’s ideas were adopted, applied, and disseminated by the Cowles Commission. Thus the mention of Trygve Haavelmo in the title is referring also to his econometric ideas. The ideas themselves and their further evolvement at the CC have been a dominating theme in the history of econometrics literature, e.g., Hildreth (1986), Epstein (1987), Morgan (1990), Qin (1993), and Christ (1994). The article discusses the recruitment, the inner workings, and various other concerns of the Cowles econometricians, from Marxism to Black Magic. It recounts at some length the efforts made by Marschak to recruit Abraham Wald to the University of Chicago and the Cowles Commission. The article can be read as a sequel to Bjerkholt (2005, 2007).

In this paper, we study adaptive nonparametric regression estimation in the presence of conditional heteroskedastic error terms. We demonstrate that both the conditional mean and conditional variance functions in a nonparametric regression model can be estimated adaptively based on the local profile likelihood principle. Both the one-step Newton–Raphson estimator and the local profile likelihood estimator are investigated. We show that the proposed estimators are asymptotically equivalent to the infeasible local likelihood estimators [e.g., Aerts and Claeskens (1997) Journal of the American Statistical Association 92, 1536–1545], which require knowledge of the error distribution. Simulation evidence suggests that when the distribution of the error term is different from Gaussian, the adaptive estimators of both conditional mean and variance can often achieve significant efficiency over the conventional local polynomial estimators.

In the paper attempts are made to integrate two parts of Trygve Haavelmo’s work: investment theory and dynamic econometric models of interrelated markets. Specifically, the duality in the representation of the capital service price and the capital quantity in relation to the investment price and quantity are brought to the forefront and confronted with elements from simultaneous equation modeling of vector autoregressive systems containing exogenous variables (VARX), using linear four-equation models. The role of the interest rate and the modeling of the expectation element in the capital service price and the capital’s retirement pattern, and their joint effect on the model’s investment quantity and price dynamics are discussed. Stability conditions are illustrated by examples. Extensions relaxing geometric decay and ways of accounting for forward-looking behavior, including rational expectations, are outlined. Some remarks on the theory-data confrontation of this kind of model are given.

This paper explores the sensitivity of plug-in subset tests to instrument exclusion in structural models. Identification-robust statistics based on the plug-in principle have been developed for testing hypotheses specified on subsets of the structural parameters. However, their robustness to instrument exclusion has not been investigated. This paper proposes an analysis of the asymptotic distributions of the limited information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimator and plug-in statistics when potential instruments are omitted. Our results provide several new insights and extensions of earlier studies. We show that the exclusion of instruments can eliminate the first-stage, thus weakening identification and invalidating the plug-in subset inference. However, when instrument omission does not affect LIML consistency, it preserves the plug-in subset test validity, although LIML is no longer asymptotically efficient. Unlike the instrumental variable (IV) estimator, the LIML estimator of the identified linear combination of the nuisance parameter is not asymptotically a Gaussian mixture, even without instrument exclusion.

It is well known that allowing the coefficients to be time-varying in a predictive model with possibly nonstationary regressors can help to deal with instability in predictability associated with linear predictive models. In this paper, an L2-type test statistic is proposed to test the stability of the coefficient vector, and the asymptotic distributions of the proposed test statistic are developed under both null and alternative hypotheses. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed test statistic and an empirical example is examined to demonstrate the practical application of the proposed testing method.

Financial time series is often assumed to be stationary and has a normal distribution in the literature. Both assumptions are however unrealistic. This paper proposes a new methodology with a focus on volatility estimation that is able to account for nonstationarity and heavy tails simultaneously. In particular, a local exponential smoothing (LES) approach is developed, in which weak estimates with different memory parameters are aggregated in a locally adaptive way. The procedure is fully automatic and the parameters are tuned by a new propagation approach. The extensive and practically oriented numerical results confirm the desired properties of the constructed estimate: it performs stable in a nearly time homogeneous situation and is sensitive to structural shifts. Our main theoretical “oracle” result claims that the aggregated estimate performs as good as the best estimate in the considered family. The results are stated under realistic and unrestrictive assumptions on the model.

Some key econometric concepts and problems of great importance to Trygve Haavelmo and Ragnar Frisch are discussed within the general framework of a cointegrated VAR. The focus is on problems typical of time-series data such as multicollinearity, spurious correlation and regression, time dependent residuals, model selection, missing simultaneity, autonomy, and identification. The paper argues that the more recent development of unit root econometrics has been instrumental for a solution to the above problems.

The purpose of this paper is to differentiate between several asymptotically valid methods for confidence set construction for the autoregressive coefficient in AR(1) models. We show that the nonparametric grid bootstrap procedure suggested by Hansen (1999, Review of Economics and Statistics 81, 594–607) achieves a second order refinement in the local-to-unity asymptotic approach when compared with a modified version of Stock’s (1991, Journal of Monetary Economics 28, 435–459) and Andrews’ (1993, Econometrica 61, 139–165) grid testing procedures. We establish a second order expansion of the t-statistic in an AR(1) model in the local-to-unity asymptotic approach, which differs drastically from the usual Edgeworth-type expansions by approximating the statistic around a nonstandard and nonpivotal limit.

Ridder (1990, Review of Economic Studies 57, 167–182) provides an identification result for the Generalized Accelerated Failure-Time (GAFT) model. We point out that Ridder’s proof of this result is incomplete, and provide an amended proof with an additional necessary and sufficient condition that requires that a function varies regularly at 0 and ∞. We also give more readily interpretable sufficient conditions on the tails of the error distribution or the asymptotic behavior of the transformation of the dependent variable. The sufficient conditions are shown to encompass all previous results on the identification of the Mixed Proportional Hazards (MPH) model. Thus, this paper not only clarifies, but also unifies the literature on the nonparametric identification of the GAFT and MPH models.

Understanding the time series dynamics of a multi-dimensional dependency structure is a challenging task. Multivariate covariance driven Gaussian or mixed normal time varying models have only a limited ability to capture important features of the data such as heavy tails, asymmetry, and nonlinear dependencies. The present paper tackles this problem by proposing and analyzing a hidden Markov model (HMM) for hierarchical Archimedean copulae (HAC). The HAC constitute a wide class of models for multi-dimensional dependencies, and HMM is a statistical technique for describing regime switching dynamics. HMM applied to HAC flexibly models multivariate dimensional non-Gaussian time series.

We apply the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm for parameter estimation. Consistency results for both parameters and HAC structures are established in an HMM framework. The model is calibrated to exchange rate data with a VaR application. This example is motivated by a local adaptive analysis that yields a time varying HAC model. We compare its forecasting performance with that of other classical dynamic models. In another, second, application, we model a rainfall process. This task is of particular theoretical and practical interest because of the specific structure and required untypical treatment of precipitation data.

This paper surveys Trygve Haavelmo’s contributions to econometrics. A brief summary of his 1944 monograph is followed by an analysis of the six important papers he contributed during 1943–47. Four of them were devoted to macroeconomic models including estimation of the Keynesian marginal propensity to consume; the first two introduced the methodology of a system of structural equations; the third marked a milestone in econometric method by deriving the reduced form of such a system; and the fourth analyzed the contrast between time-series and cross-section analysis. The fifth (joint with M.A. Girshick) on the demand for food provided a definitive treatment of estimation of demand and supply functions; it carried out the execution of a five-equation structural model of the U.S. economy. The sixth was an interesting policy model of the interrelationship between the agricultural and the rural sector of the economy, which was fitted to U.S. data and addressed to questions of policy.

We propose a statistical model to assess whether individuals strategically use mixed strategies in repeated games. We formulate a hidden Markov model in which the latent state space contains both pure and mixed strategies. We apply the model to data from an experiment in which human subjects repeatedly play a normal form game against a computer that always follows its part of the unique mixed strategy Nash equilibrium profile. Estimated results show significant mixed strategy play and nonstationary dynamics. We also explore the ability of the model to forecast action choice.

Trygve Haavelmo’s Probability Approach aimed to implement economic theories, but he later recognized their incompleteness. Although he did not explicitly consider model selection, we apply it when theory-relevant variables, {Xt}, are retained without selection while selecting other candidate variables, {Wt}. Under the null that the {Wt} are irrelevant, by orthogonalizing with respect to the {Xt}, the estimator distributions of the Xt’s parameters are unaffected by selection even for more variables than observations and for endogenous variables. Under the alternative, when the joint model nests the generating process, an improved outcome results from selection. This implements Haavelmo’s program relatively costlessly.

It is known that Efron’s bootstrap of the mean of a distribution in the domain of attraction of the stable laws with infinite variance is not consistent, in the sense that the limiting distribution of the bootstrap mean is not the same as the limiting distribution of the mean from the real sample. Moreover, the limiting bootstrap distribution is random and unknown. The conventional remedy for this problem, at least asymptotically, is either the m out of n bootstrap or subsampling. However, we show that both these procedures can be unreliable in other than very large samples. We introduce a parametric bootstrap that overcomes the failure of Efron’s bootstrap and performs better than the m out of n bootstrap and subsampling. The quality of inference based on the parametric bootstrap is examined in a simulation study, and is found to be satisfactory with heavy-tailed distributions unless the tail index is close to 1 and the distribution is heavily skewed.

We consider testing the null hypothesis of no spatial correlation against the alternative of pure first order spatial autoregression. A test statistic based on the least squares estimate has good first-order asymptotic properties, but these may not be relevant in small- or moderate-sized samples, especially as (depending on properties of the spatial weight matrix) the usual parametric rate of convergence may not be attained. We thus develop tests with more accurate size properties, by means of Edgeworth expansions and the bootstrap. Although the least squares estimate is inconsistent for the correlation parameter, we show that under quite general conditions its probability limit has the correct sign, and that least squares testing is consistent; we also establish asymptotic local power properties. The finite-sample performance of our tests is compared with others in Monte Carlo simulations.

Haavelmo’s seminal 1943 and 1944 papers are the first rigorous treatment of causality. In them, he distinguished the definition of causal parameters from their identification. He showed that causal parameters are defined using hypothetical models that assign variation to some of the inputs determining outcomes while holding all other inputs fixed. He thus formalized and made operational Marshall’s (1890) ceteris paribus analysis. We embed Haavelmo’s framework into the recursive framework of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) commonly used in the literature of causality (Pearl, 2000) and Bayesian nets (Lauritzen, 1996). We compare the analysis of causality based on a methodology inspired by Haavelmo’s ideas with other approaches used in the causal literature of DAGs. We discuss the limitations of methods that solely use the information expressed in DAGs for the identification of economic models. We extend our framework to consider models for simultaneous causality, a central contribution of Haavelmo.