This article focuses on measuring the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the peace and security agenda, taking stock of recent initiatives and progress in this area. While there is a keen awareness of the fact that AI can be weaponized to become a tool of power politics and military competition, there is comparatively less systematic attention paid to what technology can do for peace. While it is important to address risk mitigation, equal space should be given to thinking about how to harness the peace potential of AI on a large scale. This study follows a series of publications that aim to assess the impact of technological innovation on peace, also referred to as PeaceTech, Global PeaceTech, peace innovation, or digital peacebuilding. The first section provides an overview of the debate on the impact of AI on peace and conflict. The second section examines conceptual frameworks and measures of the impact of AI on peace and conflict. The third section looks at the risks to peace and conflict posed by the use of AI and possible governance measures to mitigate them. The fourth section provides examples of AI-enabled initiatives that are having a positive impact on peace, providing a compass for public and private investment. The conclusion offers policy recommendations to advance the AI for peace agenda.

Urban logistics has emerged as a priority to improve goods distribution and mobility within urban centers worldwide. Brazil presents a unique set of challenges in this regard due to issues such as excessive reliance on road transportation, lack of regulations, inadequate infrastructure, cargo theft, and the intricate interplay of cargo transportation with urban traffic. These challenges collectively exert a substantial influence on the economic, urban, and environmental performance of cities. This article introduces a novel approach aimed at assessing and benchmarking urban logistics performance between Brazilian cities with potential applicability to other contexts. The methodology was based on data envelopment analysis to evaluate efficiency based on key indicators, including GDP Gross Domestic Product, population size, commercial establishments, urban area coverage, cargo fleet size, and travel time. By applying this methodology to 12 Brazilian cities, the study improves the understanding of their relative efficiency levels concerning urban logistics and provides key insights for policymaking. The results also show the relevance of the proposed methodology and contribute to provide a perspective of different administrative and logistical facets through the lens of macroeconomic indicators, contributing to a holistic understanding of urban logistics dynamics.

Causal machine learning tools are beginning to see use in real-world policy evaluation tasks to flexibly estimate treatment effects. One issue with these methods is that the machine learning models used are generally black boxes, that is, there is no globally interpretable way to understand how a model makes estimates. This is a clear problem for governments who want to evaluate policy as it is difficult to understand whether such models are functioning in ways that are fair, based on the correct interpretation of evidence and transparent enough to allow for accountability if things go wrong. However, there has been little discussion of transparency problems in the causal machine learning literature and how these might be overcome. This article explores why transparency issues are a problem for causal machine learning in public policy evaluation applications and considers ways these problems might be addressed through explainable AI tools and by simplifying models in line with interpretable AI principles. It then applies these ideas to a case study using a causal forest model to estimate conditional average treatment effects for returns on education study. It shows that existing tools for understanding black-box predictive models are not as well suited to causal machine learning and that simplifying the model to make it interpretable leads to an unacceptable increase in error (in this application). It concludes that new tools are needed to properly understand causal machine learning models and the algorithms that fit them.

This paper aims at exploring the dynamic interplay between advanced technological developments in AI and Big Data and the sustained relevance of theoretical frameworks in scientific inquiry. It questions whether the abundance of data in the AI era reduces the necessity for theory or, conversely, enhances its importance. Arguing for a synergistic approach, the paper emphasizes the need for integrating computational capabilities with theoretical insight to uncover deeper truths within extensive datasets. The discussion extends into computational social science, where elements from sociology, psychology, and economics converge. The application of these interdisciplinary theories in the context of AI is critically examined, highlighting the need for methodological diversity and addressing the ethical implications of AI-driven research. The paper concludes by identifying future trends and challenges in AI and computational social science, offering a call to action for the scientific community, policymakers, and society. Being positioned at the intersection of AI, data science, and social theory, this paper illuminates the complexities of our digital era and inspires a re-evaluation of the methodologies and ethics guiding our pursuit of knowledge.

While the number of international students attending UK universities has been increasing in recent years, the 2021/22 and 2022/23 academic years saw a decline in applications from EU-domiciled students. However, the extent and varying impact of this decline remain to be estimated and disentangled from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using difference-in-differences (DID) in a hierarchical regression framework and Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) data, we aim to quantify the decline in the number of student applications post-Brexit. We find evidence of an overall decline of 65% in the 2021 academic year in successful applications from EU students as a result of Brexit. This decline is more pronounced for non-Russell Group institutions, as well as for Health and Life Sciences and Arts and Languages. Furthermore, we explore the spatial heterogeneity of the impact of Brexit across EU countries of origin, observing the greatest effects for Poland and Germany, though this varies depending on institution type and subject. We also show that higher rates of COVID-19 stringency in the country of origin led to greater applications for UK higher education institutions. Our results are important for government and institutional policymakers seeking to understand where losses occur and how international students respond to external shocks and policy changes. Our study quantifies the distinct impacts of Brexit and COVID-19 and offers valuable insights to guide strategic interventions to sustain the UK’s attractiveness as a destination for international students.

The aspirations-ability framework proposed by Carling has begun to place the question of who aspires to migrate at the center of migration research. In this article, building on key determinants assumed to impact individual migration decisions, we investigate their prediction accuracy when observed in the same dataset and in different mixed-migration contexts. In particular, we use a rigorous model selection approach and develop a machine learning algorithm to analyze two original cross-sectional face-to-face surveys conducted in Turkey and Lebanon among Syrian migrants and their respective host populations in early 2021. Studying similar nationalities in two hosting contexts with a distinct history of both immigration and emigration and large shares of assumed-to-be mobile populations, we illustrate that a) (im)mobility aspirations are hard to predict even under ‘ideal’ methodological circumstances, b) commonly referenced “migration drivers” fail to perform well in predicting migration aspirations in our study contexts, while c) aspects relating to social cohesion, political representation and hope play an important role that warrants more emphasis in future research and policymaking. Methodologically, we identify key challenges in quantitative research on predicting migration aspirations and propose a novel modeling approach to address these challenges.

In the context of the ongoing Russian invasion and the uncertainties surrounding the potential return migration of millions of displaced Ukrainians, this study explores the future of (return) migration through an innovative and inclusive participatory foresight approach, engaging 20 displaced Ukrainians residing in Valencia, Spain, from May to December 2023. The foresight process included workshops, discussions via online messaging groups, interviews, participatory observations, and culminated in an open art exhibition. Through this process, we conducted a collective horizon scanning, identifying weak signals and emerging trends, followed by an examination of critical uncertainties, which led to the development of four distinct scenarios: Exhaustion Return, Energetic Return, Virtual Return, and Disconnection. The insights derived from this foresight exercise hold practical relevance for both Ukrainian and EU migration policymakers, emphasizing the importance of lived experiences in shaping anticipatory migration policies. This study also offers theoretical contributions by applying participatory foresight to the field of return migration, challenging established knowledge paradigms, and fostering a more inclusive and nuanced understanding of migration dynamics and their broader implications.

The “la Caixa” Foundation has been experimenting with artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted decision-making geared toward alleviating the administrative burden associated with the evaluation pipeline of its flagship funding program, piloting an algorithm to detect immature project proposals before they reach the peer review stage, and suggest their removal from the selection process to a human overseer. In this article, we explore existing uses of AI by publishers and research funding organizations to automate their selection pipelines, in addition to analyzing the conditions under which the focal case corresponds to a responsible use of AI and the extent to which these conditions are met by the current implementation, highlighting challenges and areas of improvement.

While governments have long discussed the promise of delegating important decisions to machines, actual use often lags. Consequently, we know little about the variation in the deployment of such delegations in large numbers of similar governmental organizations. Using data from crime laboratories in the United States, we examine the uneven distribution over time of a specific, well-known expert system for ballistics imaging for a large sample of local and regional public agencies; an expert system is an inference engine joined with a knowledge base. Our statistical model is informed by the push-pull-capability theory of innovation in the public sector. We test hypotheses about the probability of deployment and provide evidence that the use of this expert system varies with the pull of agency task environments and the enabling support of organizational resources—and that the impacts of those factors have changed over time. Within this context, we also present evidence that general knowledge of the use of expert systems has supported the use of this specific expert system in many agencies. This empirical case and this theory of innovation provide broad evidence about the historical utilization of expert systems as algorithms in public sector applications.

As the field of migration studies evolves in the digital age, big data analytics emerge as a potential game-changer, promising unprecedented granularity, timeliness, and dynamism in understanding migration patterns. However, the epistemic value added by this data explosion remains an open question. This paper critically appraises the claim, investigating the extent to which big data augments, rather than merely replicates, traditional data insights in migration studies. Through a rigorous literature review of empirical research, complemented by a conceptual analysis, we aim to map out the methodological shifts and intellectual advancements brought forth by big data. The potential scientific impact of this study extends into the heart of the discipline, providing critical illumination on the actual knowledge contribution of big data to migration studies. This, in turn, delivers a clarified roadmap for navigating the intersections of data science, migration research, and policymaking.

Datafication—the increase in data generation and advancements in data analysis—offers new possibilities for governing and tackling worldwide challenges such as climate change. However, employing data in policymaking carries various risks, such as exacerbating inequalities, introducing biases, and creating gaps in access. This paper articulates 10 core tensions related to climate data and its implications for climate data governance, ranging from the diversity of data sources and stakeholders to issues of quality, access, and the balancing act between local needs and global imperatives. Through examining these tensions, the article advocates for a paradigm shift towards multi-stakeholder governance, data stewardship, and equitable data practices to harness the potential of climate data for the public good. It underscores the critical role of data stewards in navigating these challenges, fostering a responsible data ecology, and ultimately contributing to a more sustainable and just approach to climate action and broader social issues.

The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the critical need for timely data and information to aid interventions and decision-making. Efforts by different actors resulted in various data-driven initiatives, constituting experiences of deploying data in the COVID-19 response and valuable lessons that can advance the sharing and use of data for social good beyond COVID-19. This commentary highlights key case studies detailing the experiences and lessons of those who implemented data science solutions for the COVID-19 response, as well as findings from 74 data-centric COVID-19 interventions. These interventions demonstrated successful data access strategies, productive intervention processes, and effective stakeholder engagement, all of which present potential pathways to overcoming data access obstacles across Africa. Additionally, this study also briefly explores three areas for action (i.e., institutions, people, and platforms) that can inform future policy development to increase data sharing for societal benefit in the long term.

During the 20th century, dealing with grief through an ongoing involvement with the deceased (such as speaking to their grave) was seen as pathological by Western authors such as Sigmund Freud. Nowadays, we are presented with the opportunity to continue interacting with digital representations of the deceased. As a result, the paper adopts an Ubuntu perspective, i.e., a sub-Saharan African philosophy focussed on community and relationship to provide a toolkit for using this emerging technology. I will argue that the Ubuntu framework I propose contributes to the use of griefbots in two ways. The first is that it shows that it is morally permissible to use griefbots to assuage our grief. The second is that it delineates how we can ethically use the technology. To do so, I split my analysis into four sections. In the first section, I show that meaningful relationships can occur between the bereaved and griefbots. This will be done by exploring the Western theory of continuing bonds proposed by Dennis Klass, Phyllis Silverman and Steven Nickman. In my second, I flesh out my Ubuntu framework according to Thaddeus Metz’s accounts on Ubuntu as a modal-relational theory. In my third section, I apply my Ubuntu framework to the case of Roman Mazurenko. Furthermore, I consider some counterarguments to the Ubuntu framework regarding privacy, commercialisation and people replacement. Finally, I conclude that, despite these limitations, the Ubuntu framework positively contributes to determining whether we should communicate with the dead through griefbots to assuage our grief.

Originating from a unique partnership between data scientists (datavaluepeople) and peacebuilders (Build Up), this commentary explores an innovative methodology to overcome key challenges in social media analysis by developing customized text classifiers through a participatory design approach, engaging both peace practitioners and data scientists. It advocates for researchers to focus on developing frameworks that prioritize being usable and participatory in field settings, rather than perfect in simulation. Focusing on a case study investigating the polarization within online Christian communities in the United States, we outline a testing process with a dataset consisting of 8954 tweets and 10,034 Facebook posts to experiment with active learning methodologies aimed at enhancing the efficiency and accuracy of text classification. This commentary demonstrates that the inclusion of domain expertise from peace practitioners significantly refines the design and performance of text classifiers, enabling a deeper comprehension of digital conflicts. This collaborative framework seeks to transition from a data-rich, analysis-poor scenario to one where data-driven insights robustly inform peacebuilding interventions.

Open data promises various benefits, including stimulating innovation, improving transparency and public decision-making, and enhancing the reproducibility of scientific research. Nevertheless, numerous studies have highlighted myriad challenges related to preparing, disseminating, processing, and reusing open data, with newer studies revealing similar issues to those identified a decade prior. Several researchers have proposed the open data ecosystem (ODE) as a lens for studying and devising interventions to address these issues. Since actors in the ecosystem are individually and collectively impacted by the sustainability of the ecosystem, all have a role in tackling the challenges in the ODE. This paper asks what the contributions of open data intermediaries may be in addressing these challenges. Open data intermediaries are third-party actors providing specialized resources and capabilities to (i) enhance the supply, flow, and/or use of open data and/or (ii) strengthen the relationships among various open data stakeholders. They are critical in ensuring the flow of resources within the ODE. Through semi-structured interviews and a validation exercise in the European Union context, this study explores the potential contribution of open data intermediaries and the specific ODE challenges they may address. This study identified 20 potential contributions, addressing 27 challenges. The findings of this study pave the way for further inquiry into the internal incentives (viable business models) and external incentives (policies and regulations) to direct the contributions of open data intermediaries toward addressing challenges in the ODE.

This study focuses on the practicalities of establishing and maintaining AI infrastructure, as well as the considerations for responsible governance by investigating the integration of a pre-trained large language model (LLM) with an organisation’s knowledge management system via a chat interface. The research adopts the concept of “AI as a constituted system” to emphasise the social, technical, and institutional factors that contribute to AI’s governance and accountability. Through an ethnographic approach, this article details the iterative processes of negotiation, decision-making, and reflection among organisational stakeholders as they develop, implement, and manage the AI system. The findings indicate that LLMs can be effectively governed and held accountable to stakeholder interests within specific contexts, specifically, when clear institutional boundaries facilitate innovation while navigating the risks related to data privacy and AI misbehaviour. Effective constitution and use can be attributed to distinct policy creation processes to guide AI’s operation, clear lines of responsibility, and localised feedback loops to ensure accountability for actions taken. This research provides a foundational perspective to better understand algorithmic accountability and governance within organisational contexts. It also envisions a future where AI is not universally scaled but consists of localised, customised LLMs tailored to stakeholder interests.

Ethical guidelines and policy documents destined to guide AI innovations have been heralded as the solution to guard us against harmful effects or to increase public value. However, these guidelines and policy documents face persistent challenges. While these documents are often criticized for their abstraction and disconnection from real-world contexts, it also occurs that stakeholders may influence them for political or strategic reasons. While this last issue is frequently acknowledged, there is seldom a means or a method provided to explore it. To address this gap, the paper employs a combination of social constructivism and science & technology studies perspectives, along with desk research, to investigate whether prior research has examined the influence of stakeholder interests, strategies, or agendas on guidelines and policy documents. The study contributes to the discourse on AI governance by proposing a theoretical framework and methodologies to better analyze this underexplored area, aiming to enhance comprehension of the policymaking process within the rapidly evolving AI landscape. The findings underscore the need for a critical evaluation of the methodologies found and a further exploration of their utility. In addition, the results aim to stimulate ongoing critical debates on this subject.