The mathematical model is a Markov branching process which is subjected to catastrophes or large-scale emigration. Catastrophes reduce the population size by independent and identically distributed decrements, and two mechanisms for generating catastrophe epochs are given separate consideration. These are that catastrophes occur at a rate proportional to population size, and as an independent Poisson process.

The paper studies some properties of the time to extinction of the modified process in those cases where extinction occurs almost surely. Particular attention is given to limit theorems and the behaviour of the expected extinction time as the initial population size grows. These properties are contrasted with known properties for the case when there is no catastrophe component.

We consider a multitype branching random walk with independent Poisson random fields of each type of particle initially. The existence of limiting random fields as the generation number, is studied, when the intensity of the initial field is renormalized in such a way that the mean measures converge. Spatial laws of large numbers and central limit theorems are given for the limiting random field, when it is non-trivial.

A general model for the actuarial risk-reserve process as a superposition of compound delayed-renewal processes is introduced and related to previous models which have been used in collective risk theory. It is observed that non-stationarity of the portfolio ‘age-structure' within this model can have a significant impact upon probabilities of ruin. When the portfolio size is constant and the policy age-distribution is stationary, the moderate- and large-deviation probabilities of ruin are bounded and calculated using the strong approximation results of Csörg et al. (1987a, b) and a large-deviation theorem of Groeneboom et al. (1979). One consequence is that for non-Poisson claim-arrivals, the large-deviation probabilities of ruin are noticeably affected by the decision to model many parallel policy lines in place of one line with correspondingly faster claim-arrivals.

Let T be the first exit time of Brownian motion W(t) from a region ℛ in d-dimensional Euclidean space having a smooth boundary. Given points ξ0 and ξ1 in ℛ, ordinary and large-deviation approximations are given for Pr{T < ε |W(0) = ξ0, W(ε) = ξ 1} as ε → 0. Applications are given to hearing the shape of a drum and approximating the second virial coefficient.

We investigate critical Bellman-Harris processes which allow immigration of new particles whenever the population size is 0. Under some special conditions on the immigration component the asymptotic behaviour of the probability of extinction is obtained and limit theorems are also proved.

The algorithm given by Buonocore et al. [1] to evaluate first-passage-time p.d.f.’s for Wiener and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes through a time-dependent boundary is extended to a wide class of time-homogeneous one-dimensional diffusion processes. Several examples are thoroughly discussed along with some computational results.

The paper obtains the exact distribution of Bookstein's shape variables under his plausible model for landmark data. We consider its properties including invariances, marginal distributions and the relationship with Kendall's uniform measure. Particular cases for triangles and quadrilaterals are highlighted. A normal approximation to the distribution is obtained, extending Bookstein's result for three landmarks. The adequacy of these approximations is also studied.

Consider the shot noise process X(t):= Σih(t – τi), , where h is a bounded positive non-increasing function supported on a finite interval, and the are the points of a renewal process η on [0, ). In this paper, the extremal properties of {X(t)} are studied. It is shown that these properties can be investigated in a natural way through a discrete-time process which records the states of {X(t)} at the points of η. The important special case where η is Poisson is treated in detail, and a domain-of-attraction result for the compound Poisson distribution is obtained as a by-product.

The notion of complete level crossing information, or LCI-completeness, is introduced for quasi-birth-death (QBD) processes. It is shown that state space expansions allow any QBD-process to be modified so that it is LCI-complete.

For any LCI-complete, QBD-process, there exists a matrix W such that , where is the vector of limiting probabilities for all states on level n of the process. When W cannot be found in closed form, it can be found via an algorithm requiring fewer than m steps, where m is the number of states on each level of the process. The result of this algorithm is always a linear matrix equation for which W is the solution.

In essentially all cases considered in this paper, the matrix W is a solution of the matrix quadratic

X2A2 + XA1 + A0 = 0.

Despite this fact, W is never equal to Neuts' rate matrix R, although the non-zero eigenvalues and the corresponding left eigenvectors of R are a subset of the eigenvalues and left eigenvectors of W. This fact leads to two methods for determining R from W.

If the transition rates of the QBD-process are level-dependent, then it is also shown that matrices W(n) exist such that .

This paper presents a general theory of random tessellations (i.e. stochastic aggregates of disjoint and space-filling cells) in d-dimensional Euclidean space. Some particular models of random tessellations are discussed in detail.

A general study of the asymptotic law of a skew-product of two real diffusions is proposed; a complete and elementary form of the Rosenkrantz theorem is given; the results are applied to three examples: the Brownian motions on SO3, on S3, and on SH3.

A sequence Xn, 1 of independent and identically distributed random vectors is considered. Under a condition of regular variation, the number of vertices of the convex hull of {X1, …, Xn} converges in distribution to the number of vertices of the convex hull of a certain Poisson point process. In this paper, it is proved without sharpening the conditions that the expectation of this number also converges; expressions are found for its limit, generalizing results of Davis et al. (1987). We also present some results concerning other quantities of interest, such as area and perimeter of the convex hull and the probability that a given point belongs to the convex hull.

Daniels and Skyrme (1985) derived the joint distribution of the maximum, and the time at which it is attained, of a Brownian path superimposed on a parabolic curve near its maximum. In the present paper the results are extended to include Gaussian processes which behave locally like Brownian motion, or a process transformable to it, near the maximum of the mean path. This enables a wider class of practical problems to be dealt with. The results are used to obtain the asymptotic distribution of breaking load and extension of a bundle of fibres which can admit random slack or plastic yield, as suggested by Phoenix and Taylor (1973). Simulations confirm the approximations reasonably well. The method requires consideration not only of a Brownian bridge but also of an analogous process with covariance function t1(1 + t2), .

Let W be a sum of Bernoulli random variables and Uλ a Poisson random variable having the same mean λ = EW. Using the Stein-Chen method and suitable couplings, general upper bounds for the variational distance between W and Uλ are given. These bounds are applied to problems of occupancy, using sampling with and without replacement and Pólya sampling, of capture-recapture, of spacings and of matching and ménage.

In this paper we compare the distribution of the supremum of the Gaussian random fields Z(P) = ∫CpG(P, P′) dW(P′) and U(P) = ∫CpdW(P'), where CP are circles of fixed radius, dW is a white noise field and G are special deterministic response functions.

The results obtained permit us to establish upper bounds for the distribution of the supremum of Z(P) by applying some well-known inequalities on U(P).

The comparison of the suprema is carried out also, when CP = ℝ2, between fields with different response functions.

This expository paper deals with many problems concerning bounded objects arranged randomly in space. The objects are of rather general shapes and sizes, whilst the random mechanisms for positioning and orienting them are also fairly general. There are no restrictions on the dependence between shapes, sizes, orientations and positions of objects. The only substantive assumption is that the objects are distributed in a ‘statistically uniform' way throughout the whole of the space. We focus on the statistical properties of features seen in an observation window, itself of general size and shape.

We consider two distinct models of particle systems. In the first we have an infinite collection of identical Markov processes starting at random throughout Euclidean space. In the second a random sign is associated with each process. An interaction mechanism is introduced in each case via intersection local times, and the fluctuation theory of the systems studied as the processes become dense in space. In the first case the fluctuation theory always turns out to be Gaussian, regardless of the order of the intersections taken to introduce the interaction mechanism. In the second case, an interaction mechanism based on kth order intersections leads to a fluctuation theory akin to a :φ k: Euclidean quantum field theory. We consider the consequences of these results and relate them to different models previously studied in the literature.

In this paper we identify the shape space Σ(S2, k) for k labelled points on the sphere S2 that gives a mathematical model applicable to data sets whose elements are, or can be represented by, configurations of labelled sequences of points on S2 and for which the fundamental properties of interest are the shapes of these configurations, and we examine the geometric structures on the space, especially the riemannian structure on Σ(S2, 3). In a companion paper (pp. 581–594) we investigate the statistical properties of such shapes when the k points are generated by a random mechanism.

A max-autoregressive moving average (MARMA(p, q)) process {Xt} satisfies the recursion for all t where φ i, , and {Zt} is i.i.d. with common distribution function Φ1,σ (X): = exp {–σ x–1} for . Such processes have finite-dimensional distributions which are max-stable and hence are examples of max-stable processes. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for existence of a stationary solution to the MARMA recursion and we examine the reducibility of the process to a MARMA(p′, q′) with p′ <p or q′ < q. After introducing a natural metric between two jointly max-stable random variables, we consider the prediction problem for MARMA processes. Assuming that X1, …, Xn have been observed, we restrict our class of predictors to be max-linear, i.e. of the form , and find b1, …, bn to minimize the distance between this predictor and Xn+k for k 1. The optimality criterion is designed to minimize the probability of large errors and is similar in spirit to the dispersion criterion adopted in Cline and Brockwell (Stoch. Proc. Appl. 19 (1985), 281-296) for the prediction of ARMA processes with stable noise. Most of our results remain valid for the case when the distribution of Z1 is only in the domain of attraction of Φ1,σ. In addition, we give a naive estimation procedure for the φ 's and the θ 's which, with probability 1, identifies the true parameter values exactly for n sufficiently large.

‘Divide and conquer’ is a traditional approach in various fields of applied mathematics. In reliability, only modules have been proposed to decompose complex coherent systems. However, a system may include no modules, except ‘trivial’ ones. This paper is the second step of a study concerned with module generalizations : in the first step, pseudo-modules have been retained as the most general coherent subsystems which can yield a complete extension of the fundamental results concerning modules; in addition, it has been proved that they concern any binary coherent system; in this paper, it is shown that pseudo-modular decompositions are the most general coherent decompositions which can yield a complete extension of all the ‘refined bounds’ for the interval reliability and the availability currently proposed in terms of modular decompositions.

This study also yields some fundamental results to extend all the ‘refined bounds’ currently proposed for multistate coherent systems, using an easier approach.