We consider a stationary Poisson process X of k-flats in ℝd with intensity measure Θ and a measurable set S of k-flats depending on F1,…,Fn∈ X, x∈ℝd, and X in a specific equivariant way. If (F1,…,Fn,x) is properly sampled (in a ‘typical way’) then Θ(S) has a gamma distribution. This result generalizes and unifies earlier work by Miles (1971), Møller and Zuyev (1996), and Zuyev (1999). As a new example, we will show that the volume of the fundamental region of a typical j-face of a stationary Poisson–Voronoi tessellation is conditionally gamma distributed. This is true in the area-biased and the area-debiased cases. In the first case the shape parameter is not integer valued. As another new example, we will show that the generalized integral-geometric contents of the (area-biased and area-debiased) typical j-face of a Poisson hyperplane tessellation are conditionally gamma distributed. In the isotropic case the contents boil down to the mean breadth of the face.

Motivated by applications of Gabriel graphs and Yao graphs in wireless ad-hoc networks, we show that the maximum degree of a random Gabriel graph or Yao graph defined on n points drawn uniformly at random from a unit square grows as Θ (log n / log log n) in probability.

We consider the operation of an insurer with a large initial surplus x>0. The insurer's surplus process S(t) (with S(0)=x) evolves in the range S(t)≥ 0 as a generalized renewal process with positive mean drift and with jumps at time epochs T1,T2,…. At the time Tη(x) when the process S(t) first becomes negative, the insurer's ruin (in the ‘classical’ sense) occurs, but the insurer can borrow money via a line of credit. After this moment the process S(t) behaves as a solution to a certain stochastic differential equation which, in general, depends on the indebtedness, -S(t). This behavior of S(t) lasts until the time θ(x,y) at which the indebtedness reaches some ‘critical’ level y>0. At this moment the line of credit will be closed and the insurer's absolute ruin occurs with deficit -S(θ(x,y)). We find the asymptotics of the absolute ruin probability and the limiting distributions of η(x), θ(x,y), and -S(θ(x,y)) as x → ∞, assuming that the claim distribution is regularly varying. The second-order approximation to the absolute ruin probability is also obtained. The abovementioned results are obtained by using limiting theorems for the joint distribution of η(x) and -S(Tη(x)).

The lying oracle problem is a problem of finding the optimal strategies in a two-person game where an oracle predicts the outcomes of coin flips and a player bets on the outcomes. The oracle announces whether the coin will land heads or tails, but may at times lie. We analyze the variant of the game which uses a biased coin, where the probability p that the coin lands heads is common knowledge. We determine optimal strategies for both the oracle and player, and we give an explicit expression for the expected payoff to the player when the coin is flipped n times and the oracle may lie at most k times.

A necessary condition for a rational Laplace–Stieltjes transform to correspond to a matrix exponential distribution is that the pole of maximal real part is real and negative. Given a rational Laplace–Stieltjes transform with such a pole, we present a method to determine whether or not the numerator polynomial admits a transform that corresponds to a matrix exponential distribution. The method relies on the minimization of a continuous function of one variable over the nonnegative real numbers. Using this approach, we give an alternative characterization for all matrix exponential distributions of order three.

The secretary problem for selecting one item so as to minimize its expected rank, based on observing the relative ranks only, is revisited. A simple suboptimal rule, which performs almost as well as the optimal rule, is given. The rule stops with the smallest i such that Ri≤ic/(n+1-i) for a given constant c, where Ri is the relative rank of the ith observation and n is the total number of items. This rule has added flexibility. A curtailed version thereof can be used to select an item with a given probability P, P<1. The rule can be used to select two or more items. The problem of selecting a fixed percentage, α, 0<α<1, of n, is also treated. Numerical results are included to illustrate the findings.

In Michel and Paroux (2003) the authors proposed a new proof of a well-known convergence result for the scaled elementary connected vacant component in the high intensity Boolean model towards the Crofton cell of the Poisson hyperplane process (see, e.g. Hall (1985)). In this paper we investigate the second-order term in this convergence when the two-dimensional Boolean model and the Poisson line process are coupled on the same probability space. We consider the particular case where the grains are discs with random radii. A precise coupling between the Boolean model and the Poisson line process is first established. A result of directional convergence in distribution for the difference of the two sets involved is then derived. Eventually, we show the convergence of the process, measuring the difference between the two random sets, once rescaled, as a function of the direction.

In a repulsive point process, points act as if they are repelling one another, leading to underdispersed configurations when compared to a standard Poisson point process. Such models are useful when competition for resources exists, as in the locations of towns and trees. Bertil Matérn introduced three models for repulsive point processes, referred to as types I, II, and III. Matérn used types I and II, and regarded type III as intractable. In this paper an algorithm is developed that allows for arbitrarily accurate approximation of the likelihood for data modeled by the Matérn type-III process. This method relies on a perfect simulation method that is shown to be fast in practice, generating samples in time that grows nearly linearly in the intensity parameter of the model, while the running times for more naive methods grow exponentially.

Let {Zt}t≥0 be a Lévy process with Lévy measure ν, and let τ(t)=∫0tr(u) d u, where {r(t)}t≥0 is a positive ergodic diffusion independent from Z. Based upon discrete observations of the time-changed Lévy process Xt≔Zτt during a time interval [0,T], we study the asymptotic properties of certain estimators of the parameters β(φ)≔∫φ(x)ν(d x), which in turn are well known to be the building blocks of several nonparametric methods such as sieve-based estimation and kernel estimation. Under uniform boundedness of the second moments of r and conditions on φ necessary for the standard short-term ergodic property limt→ 0 E φ(Zt)/t = β(φ) to hold, consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators are ensured when the time horizon T increases in such a way that the sampling frequency is high enough relative to T.

We consider a model for a time series of spatial locations, in which points are placed sequentially at random into an initially empty region of ℝd, and given the current configuration of points, the likelihood at location x for the next particle is proportional to a specified function βk of the current number (k) of points within a specified distance of x. We show that the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters βk (assumed to be zero for k exceeding some fixed threshold) is consistent in the thermodynamic limit where the number of points grows in proportion to the size of the region.

In this paper we deal with generalized fractional kinetic equations driven by a Gaussian noise, white in time and correlated in space, and where the diffusion operator is the composition of the Bessel and Riesz potentials for any fractional parameters. We give results on the existence and uniqueness of solutions by means of a weak formulation and study the Hölder continuity. Moreover, we prove the existence of a smooth density associated to the solution process and study the asymptotics of this density. Finally, when the diffusion coefficient is constant, we look for its Gaussian index.

In this paper we consider a stochastic SIR (susceptible→infective→removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within ‘households’ (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal size) and along the edges of a random graph describing additional social contacts. Heuristically motivated branching process approximations are described, which lead to a threshold parameter for the model and methods for calculating the probability of a major outbreak, given few initial infectives, and the expected proportion of the population who are ultimately infected by such a major outbreak. These approximate results are shown to be exact as the number of households tends to infinity by proving associated limit theorems. Moreover, simulation studies indicate that these asymptotic results provide good approximations for modestly sized finite populations. The extension to unequal-sized households is discussed briefly.

We consider an infinite sequence of customers of types and an infinite sequence of servers of types where a server of type j can serve a subset of customer types C(j) and where a customer of type i can be served by a subset of server types S(i). We assume that the types of customers and servers in the infinite sequences are random, independent, and identically distributed, and that customers and servers are matched according to their order in the sequence, on a first-come–first-served (FCFS) basis. We investigate this process of infinite bipartite matching. In particular, we are interested in the rate ri,j that customers of type i are assigned to servers of type j. We present a countable state Markov chain to describe this process, and for some previously unsolved instances, we prove ergodicity and existence of limiting rates, and calculate ri,j.

We study the asymptotic behavior of the tail probability of integrated stable processes exceeding power barriers. In the first part of the paper the limiting behavior of the integrals of stable processes generated by ergodic dissipative flows is established. In the second part an example with the integral of a stable process generated by a conservative flow is analyzed. Finally, the difference in the order of magnitude of the exceedance probability in the two cases is related to the dependence structure of the underlying stable process.

In this paper we examine the extremal tail probabilities of moving sums in a marked Poisson random field. These sums are computed by adding up the weighted occurrences of events lying within a scanning set of fixed shape and size. We also provide an alternative representation of the constants of the asymptotic formulae in terms of the occupation measure of the conditional local random field at zero, and extend these representations to the constants of asymptotic tail probabilities of Gaussian random fields.

Directionally convex ordering is a useful tool for comparing the dependence structure of random vectors, which also takes into account the variability of the marginal distributions. It can be extended to random fields by comparing all finite-dimensional distributions. Viewing locally finite measures as nonnegative fields of measure values indexed by the bounded Borel subsets of the space, in this paper we formulate and study directionally convex ordering of random measures on locally compact spaces. We show that the directionally convex order is preserved under some of the natural operations considered on random measures and point processes, such as deterministic displacement of points, independent superposition, and thinning, as well as independent, identically distributed marking. Further operations on Cox point processes such as position-dependent marking and displacement of points are shown to preserve the order. We also examine the impact of the directionally convex order on the second moment properties, in particular on clustering and on Palm distributions. Comparisons of Ripley's functions and pair correlation functions, as well as examples, seem to indicate that point processes higher in the directionally convex order cluster more. In our main result we show that nonnegative integral shot noise fields with respect to the directionally convex ordered random measures inherit this ordering from the measures. Numerous applications of this result are shown, in particular to comparison of various Cox processes and some performance measures of wireless networks, in both of which shot noise fields appear as key ingredients. We also mention a few pertinent open questions.