We propose a simple stochastic volatility model which is analytically tractable, very easy to simulate, and which captures some relevant stylized facts of financial assets, including scaling properties. In particular, the model displays a crossover in the log-return distribution from power-law tails (small time) to a Gaussian behavior (large time), slow decay in the volatility autocorrelation, and multiscaling of moments. Despite its few parameters, the model is able to fit several key features of the time series of financial indexes, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with remarkable accuracy.

Let M be a bounded domain of with a smooth boundary. We relate the Cheeger constant of M and the conductance of a neighborhood graph defined on a random sample from M. By restricting the minimization defining the latter over a particular class of subsets, we obtain consistency (after normalization) as the sample size increases, and show that any minimizing sequence of subsets has a subsequence converging to a Cheeger set of M.

In this paper we extend the existing literature on the asymptotic behavior of the partial sums and the sample covariances of long-memory stochastic volatility models in the case of infinite variance. We also consider models with leverage, for which our results are entirely new in the infinite-variance case. Depending on the interplay between the tail behavior and the intensity of dependence, two types of convergence rates and limiting distributions can arise. In particular, we show that the asymptotic behavior of partial sums is the same for both long memory in stochastic volatility and models with leverage, whereas there is a crucial difference when sample covariances are considered.

We consider a model of fixed size N = 2l in which there are l generations of daughter cells and a stem cell. In each generation i there are 2i−1 daughter cells. At each integral time unit the cells split so that the stem cell splits into a stem cell and generation 1 daughter cell and the generation i daughter cells become two cells of generation i+1. The last generation is removed from the population. A stem cell acquires first and second mutations at rates u1 and u2, and a daughter cell acquires first and second mutations at rates v1 and v2. We find the distribution for the time it takes to acquire two mutations as N goes to ∞ and the mutation rates go to 0. The mutation rates may tend to 0 at different speeds. We also find the distribution for the locations of the mutations. In particular, we determine whether or not the mutations occur on a stem cell and if not, at what generation in the daughter cells they occur. Several outcomes are possible, depending on how fast the rates go to 0. The model considered has been proposed by Komarova (2007) as a model for colon cancer.

We study mean-variance hedging under portfolio constraints in a general semimartingale model. The constraints are formulated via predictable correspondences, meaning that the trading strategy is restricted to lie in a closed convex set which may depend on the state and time in a predictable way. To obtain the existence of a solution, we first establish the closedness in L2 of the space of all gains from trade (i.e. the terminal values of stochastic integrals with respect to the price process of the underlying assets). This is a first main contribution which enables us to tackle the problem in a systematic and unified way. In addition, using the closedness allows us to explain and generalise in a systematic way the convex duality results obtained previously by other authors via ad-hoc methods in specific frameworks.

For stationary fiber processes, the estimation of the directional distribution is an important task. We consider a stereological approach, assuming that the intersection points of the process with a finite number of test hyperplanes can be observed in a bounded window. The intensity of these intersection processes is proportional to the cosine transform of the directional distribution. We use the approximate inverse method to invert the cosine transform and analyze asymptotic properties of the estimator in growing windows for Poisson line processes. We show almost-sure convergence of the estimator and derive Berry–Esseen bounds, including formulae for the variance.

We introduce a new approach to simulating rare events for Markov random walks with heavy-tailed increments. This approach involves sequential importance sampling and resampling, and uses a martingale representation of the corresponding estimate of the rare-event probability to show that it is unbiased and to bound its variance. By choosing the importance measures and resampling weights suitably, it is shown how this approach can yield asymptotically efficient Monte Carlo estimates.

For a Borel set A and a homogeneous Poisson point process η in of intensity λ>0, define the Poisson–Voronoi approximation Aη of A as a union of all Voronoi cells with nuclei from η lying in A. If A has a finite volume and perimeter, we find an exact asymptotic of E Vol(AΔ Aη) as λ→∞, where Vol is the Lebesgue measure. Estimates for all moments of Vol(Aη) and Vol(AΔ Aη) together with their asymptotics for large λ are obtained as well.

Let {Xi} be a sequence of independent, identically distributed random variables with an intermediate regularly varying right tail F̄. Let (N, C1, C2,…) be a nonnegative random vector independent of the {Xi} with N∈ℕ∪ {∞}. We study the weighted random sum SN=∑{i=1}NCiXi, and its maximum, MN=sup{1≤kN+1∑i=1kCiXi. This type of sum appears in the analysis of stochastic recursions, including weighted branching processes and autoregressive processes. In particular, we derive conditions under which P(MN > x)∼ P(SN > x)∼ E[∑i=1NF̄(x/Ci)] as x→∞. When E[X1]>0 and the distribution of ZN=∑ i=1NCi is also intermediate regularly varying, we obtain the asymptotics P(MN > x)∼ P(SN > x)∼ E[∑i=1NF̄}(x/Ci)] +P(ZN > x/E[X1]). For completeness, when the distribution of ZN is intermediate regularly varying and heavier than F̄, we also obtain conditions under which the asymptotic relations P(MN > x) ∼ P(SN > x)∼ P(ZN > x / E[X1] hold.

Motivated by stability questions on piecewise-deterministic Markov models of bacterial chemotaxis, we study the long-time behavior of a variant of the classic telegraph process having a nonconstant jump rate that induces a drift towards the origin. We compute its invariant law and show exponential ergodicity, obtaining a quantitative control of the total variation distance to equilibrium at each instant of time. These results rely on an exact description of the excursions of the process away from the origin and on the explicit construction of an original coalescent coupling for both the velocity and position. Sharpness of the obtained convergence rate is discussed.

In this paper we consider the generalized Hodgkin-Huxley model introduced in Austin (2008). This model describes the propagation of an action potential along the axon of a neuron at the scale of ion channels. Mathematically, this model is a fully coupled piecewise-deterministic Markov process (PDMP) in infinite dimensions. We introduce two time scales in this model in considering that some ion channels open and close at faster jump rates than others. We perform a slow-fast analysis of this model and prove that, asymptotically, this ‘two-time-scale’ model reduces to the so-called averaged model, which is still a PDMP in infinite dimensions, for which we provide effective evolution equations and jump rates.

We aim to link random fields and marked point processes, and, therefore, introduce a new class of stochastic processes which are defined on a random set in . Unlike for random fields, the mark covariance function of a random marked set is in general not positive definite. This implies that in many situations the use of simple geostatistical methods appears to be questionable. Surprisingly, for a special class of processes based on Gaussian random fields, we do have positive definiteness for the corresponding mark covariance function and mark correlation function.

Let Sn, k denote the random graph obtained by placing points in a square box of area n according to a Poisson process of intensity 1 and joining each point to its k nearest neighbours. Balister, Bollobás, Sarkar and Walters (2005) conjectured that, for every 0 < ε < 1 and all sufficiently large n, there exists C = C(ε) such that, whenever the probability that Sn, k is connected is at least ε, then the probability that Sn, k+C is connected is at least 1 - ε. In this paper we prove this conjecture. As a corollary, we prove that there exists a constant C' such that, whenever k(n) is a sequence of integers such that the probability Sn,k(n) is connected tends to 1 as n → ∞, then, for any integer sequence s(n) with s(n) = o(logn), the probability Sn,k(n)+⌊C'slog logn⌋ is s-connected (i.e. remains connected after the deletion of any s − 1 vertices) tends to 1 as n → ∞. This proves another conjecture given in Balister, Bollobás, Sarkar and Walters (2009).

This paper deals with discrete-time Markov decision processes (MDPs) under constraints where all the objectives have the same form of expected total cost over the infinite time horizon. The existence of an optimal control policy is discussed by using the convex analytic approach. We work under the assumptions that the state and action spaces are general Borel spaces, and that the model is nonnegative, semicontinuous, and there exists an admissible solution with finite cost for the associated linear program. It is worth noting that, in contrast to the classical results in the literature, our hypotheses do not require the MDP to be transient or absorbing. Our first result ensures the existence of an optimal solution to the linear program given by an occupation measure of the process generated by a randomized stationary policy. Moreover, it is shown that this randomized stationary policy provides an optimal solution to this Markov control problem. As a consequence, these results imply that the set of randomized stationary policies is a sufficient set for this optimal control problem. Finally, our last main result states that all optimal solutions of the linear program coincide on a special set with an optimal occupation measure generated by a randomized stationary policy. Several examples are presented to illustrate some theoretical issues and the possible applications of the results developed in the paper.

An asset manager invests the savings of some investors in a portfolio of defaultable bonds. The manager pays the investors coupons at a constant rate and receives a management fee proportional to the value of the portfolio. He/she also has the right to walk out of the contract at any time with the net terminal value of the portfolio after payment of the investors' initial funds, and is not responsible for any deficit. To control the principal losses, investors may buy from the manager a limited protection which terminates the agreement as soon as the value of the portfolio drops below a predetermined threshold. We assume that the value of the portfolio is a jump diffusion process and find an optimal termination rule of the manager with and without protection. We also derive the indifference price of a limited protection. We illustrate the solution method on a numerical example. The motivation comes from the collateralized debt obligations.

Let {Xt, t ≥ 1} be a sequence of identically distributed and pairwise asymptotically independent random variables with regularly varying tails, and let {Θt, t ≥ 1} be a sequence of positive random variables independent of the sequence {Xt, t ≥ 1}. We will discuss the tail probabilities and almost-sure convergence of X(∞) = ∑t=1∞ΘtXt+ (where X+ = max{0, X}) and max1≤k<∞∑t=1kΘtXt, and provide some sufficient conditions motivated by Denisov and Zwart (2007) as alternatives to the usual moment conditions. In particular, we illustrate how the conditions on the slowly varying function involved in the tail probability of X1 help to control the tail behavior of the randomly weighted sums. Note that, the above results allow us to choose X1, X2,… as independent and identically distributed positive random variables. If X1 has a regularly varying tail of index -α, where α > 0, and if {Θt, t ≥ 1} is a positive sequence of random variables independent of {Xt}, then it is known – which can also be obtained from the sufficient conditions in this article – that, under some appropriate moment conditions on {Θt, t ≥ 1}, X(∞) = ∑t=1∞ΘtXt converges with probability 1 and has a regularly varying tail of index -α. Motivated by the converse problems in Jacobsen, Mikosch, Rosiński and Samorodnitsky (2009) we ask the question: if X(∞) has a regularly varying tail then does X1 have a regularly varying tail under some appropriate conditions? We obtain appropriate sufficient moment conditions, including the nonvanishing Mellin transform of ∑t=1∞Θt along some vertical line in the complex plane, so that the above is true. We also show that the condition on the Mellin transform cannot be dropped.