Consider the optimal control problem of leaving an interval (– a, a) in a limited playing time. In the discrete-time problem, a is a positive integer and the player's position is given by a simple random walk on the integers with initial position x. At each time instant, the player chooses a coin from a control set where the probability of returning heads depends on the current position and the remaining amount of playing time, and the player is betting a unit value on the toss of the coin: heads returning +1 and tails − 1. We discuss the optimal strategy for this discrete-time game. In the continuous-time problem the player chooses infinitesimal mean and infinitesimal variance parameters from a control set which may depend upon the player's position. The problem is to find optimal mean and variance parameters that maximize the probability of leaving the interval [— a, a] within a finite time T > 0.

The paper is concerned with the distribution of the level N of the first crossing of a counting process trajectory with a lower boundary. Compound and simple Poisson or binomial processes, gamma renewal processes, and finally birth processes are considered. In the simple Poisson case, expressing the exact distribution of N requires the use of a classical family of Abel–Gontcharoff polynomials. For other cases convenient extensions of these polynomials into pseudopolynomials with a similar structure are necessary. Such extensions being applicable to other fields of applied probability, the central part of the present paper has been devoted to the building of these pseudopolynomials in a rather general framework.

n candidates, represented by n i.i.d. continuous random variables X1, …, Xn with known distribution arrive sequentially, and one of them must be chosen, using a non-anticipating stopping rule. The objective is to minimize the expected rank (among the ranks of X1, …, Xn) of the candidate chosen, where the best candidate, i.e. the one with smallest X-value, has rank one, etc. Let the value of the optimal rule be Vn, and lim Vn = V. We prove that V > 1.85. Limiting consideration to the class of threshold rules of the form tn = min {k: Xk ≦ ak for some constants ak, let Wn be the value of the expected rank for the optimal threshold rule, and lim Wn = W. We show 2.295 < W < 2.327.

A unified way of obtaining stationary time series models with the univariate margins in the convolution-closed infinitely divisible class is presented. Special cases include gamma, inverse Gaussian, Poisson, negative binomial, and generalized Poisson margins. ARMA time series models obtain in the special case of normal margins, sometimes in a different stochastic representation. For the gamma and Poisson margins, some previously defined time series models are included, but for the negative binomial margin, the time series models are different and, in several ways, better than previously defined time series models. The models are related to multivariate distributions that extend a univariate distribution in the convolution-closed infinitely divisible class. Extensions to the non-stationary case and possible applications to modelling longitudinal data are mentioned.

In his recent monograph on Poisson processes, Kingman generalized Rényi's characterization of Poisson processes and also suggested a characteristic functional approach. A direct proof is given along this line.

Denote by A(x) = {a: |aτx| ≦ h} a circle zone on the three-dimensional sphere surface for each given h > 0. For a given integer m, we investigate how many zones chosen randomly are needed to contain at least one of the points on the sphere surface m times. As an application, the lifetime of a sphere roller is investigated. We present empirical formulas for the mean, standard deviation and distribution of the lifetime of the sphere roller. Furthermore, some limit behaviors of the above stopping time are obtained, such as the limit distribution, the law of the iterated logarithm, and the upper and lower bounds of the tail probability with the same convergent order.

Integration with respect to the fractional Brownian motion Z with Hurst parameter is discussed. The predictor is represented as an integral with respect to Z, solving a weakly singular integral equation for the prediction weight function.

We analyse the queue QL at a multiplexer with L sources which may display long-range dependence. This includes, for example, sources modelled by fractional Brownian motion (FBM). The workload processes W due to each source are assumed to have large deviation properties of the form P[Wt/a(t) > x] ≈ exp[– v(t)K(x)] for appropriate scaling functions a and v, and rate-function K. Under very general conditions limL→xL–1 log P[QL > Lb] = – I(b), provided the offered load is held constant, where the shape function I is expressed in terms of the cumulant generating functions of the input traffic. For power-law scalings v(t) = tv, a(t) = ta (such as occur in FBM) we analyse the asymptotics of the shape function limb→xb–u/a(I(b) – δbv/a) = vu for some exponent u and constant v depending on the sources. This demonstrates the economies of scale available though the multiplexing of a large number of such sources, by comparison with a simple approximation P[QL > Lb] ≈ exp[−δLbv/a] based on the asymptotic decay rate δ alone. We apply this formula to Gaussian processes, in particular FBM, both alone, and also perturbed by an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. This demonstrates a richer potential structure than occurs for sources with linear large deviation scalings.

We discuss the limits of point processes which are generated by a triangular array of rare events. Such point processes are motivated by the exceedances of a high boundary by a random sequence since exceedances are rare events in this case. This application relates the problem to extreme value theory from where the method is used to treat the asymptotic approximation of these point processes. The presented general approach extends, unifies and clarifies some of the various conditions used in the extreme value theory.

This paper provides a direct approach to obtaining formulas for derivatives of functionals of point processes in rare perturbation analysis ([2], [6]). Results are obtained for arbitrary (not necessarily stationary) point processes in and d, d 2, under transparent conditions, close to minimal. Formulas for higher-order derivatives allow one to construct asymptotical expansions. The results can be useful in sensitivity analysis, in light traffic theory for queues and for computation by simulation of derivatives at positive intensity, while the computation of the derivatives via statistical estimation of the functional itself and its increments usually gives poor results.

The ‘Mabinogion sheep’ problem, originally due to D. Williams, is a nice illustration in discrete time of the martingale optimality principle and the use of local time in stochastic control. The use of singular controls involving local time is even more strikingly highlighted in the context of continuous time. This paper considers a class of diffusion versions of the discrete-time Mabinogion sheep problem. The stochastic version of the Bellman dynamic programming approach leads to a free boundary problem in each case. The most surprising feature in the continuous-time context is the existence of diffusion versions of the original discrete-time problem for which the optimal boundary is different from that in the discrete-time case; even when the optimal boundary is the same, the value functions can be very different.

We consider the following secretary problem: items ranked from 1 to n are randomly selected without replacement, one at a time, and to ‘win' is to stop at an item whose overall rank is less than or equal to s, given only the relative ranks of the items drawn so far. Our method of analysis is based on the existence of an imbedded Markov chain and uses the technique of backwards induction. In principal the approach can be used to give exact results for any value of s; we do the working for s = 3. We give exact results for the optimal strategy, the probability of success and the distribution of T, and the total number of draws when the optimal strategy is implemented. We also give some asymptotic results for these quantities as n → ∞.

The aim of the present paper is to introduce some techniques, based on the change of variable formula for processes of finite variation, for establishing (integro) differential equations for evaluating the distribution of jump processes for a fixed period of time. This is of interest in insurance mathematics for evaluating the distribution of the total amount of claims occurred over some period of time, and attention will be given to such issues. Firstly we will study some techniques when the process has independent increments, and then a more refined martingale technique is discussed. The building blocks are delivered by the theory of marked point processes and associated martingale theory. A simple numerical example is given.

For (marked) Poisson point processes we give, for increasing events, a new proof of the analog of the BK inequality. In contrast to other proofs, which use weak-convergence arguments, our proof is ‘direct' and requires no extra topological conditions on the events. Apart from some well-known properties of Poisson point processes, the proof is self-contained.

We introduce the optimal stopping problem of an infinite sequence of records associated with a planar Poisson process. This problem serves as a limiting form of the classical full information best-choice problem. A link between the finite problem and its limiting form is established via embedding n i.i.d. observations into the planar process.

We give criteria for the finiteness or infiniteness of the passage-time moments for continuous non-negative stochastic processes in terms of sub/supermartingale inequalities for powers of these processes. We apply these results to one-dimensional diffusions and also reflected Brownian motion in a wedge. The discrete-time analogue of this problem was studied previously by Lamperti and more recently by Aspandiiarov, Iasnogorodski and Menshikov [2]. Our results are continuous analogues of those in [2], but our proofs are direct and do not rely on approximation by discrete-time processes.

We consider the piecewise linear interpolation of Gaussian processes with continuous sample paths and stationary increments. The interrelation between the smoothness of the incremental variance function, d(t – s) = E[(X(t) – X(s))2], and the interpolation errors in mean square and uniform metrics is studied. The method of investigation can also be applied to the analysis of different methods of interpolation. It is based on some limit results for large deviations of a sequence of Gaussian non-stationary processes and related point processes. Non-stationarity in our case means mainly the local stationary condition for the sequence of correlation functions rn(t,s), n = 1, 2, ···, which has to hold uniformly in n. Finally, we discuss some examples and an application to the calculation of the distribution function of the maximum of a continuous Gaussian process with a given precision.

We show that a Poisson cluster point process is a nearest-neighbour Markov point process [2] if the clusters have uniformly bounded diameter. It is typically not a finite-range Markov point process in the sense of Ripley and Kelly [12]. Furthermore, when the parent Poisson process is replaced by a Markov or nearest-neighbour Markov point process, the resulting cluster process is also nearest-neighbour Markov, provided all clusters are non-empty. In particular, the nearest-neighbour Markov property is preserved when points of the process are independently randomly translated, but not when they are randomly thinned.

Point-process and other techniques are used to make a comprehensive investigation of the almost-sure behaviour of partial maxima (the rth largest among a sample of n i.i.d. random variables), partial record values and differences and quotients involving them. In particular, we obtain characterizations of such asymptotic properties as a.s. for some finite constant c, or a.s. for some constant c in [0,∞], which tell us, in various ways, how quickly the sequences increase. These characterizations take the form of integral conditions on the tail of F, which furthermore characterize such properties as stability and relative stability of the sequence of maxima. We also develop their relation to the large-sample behaviour of trimmed sums, and discuss some statistical applications.

A new construction of the Gaussian distribution is introduced and proven. The procedure consists of using fractal interpolating functions, with graphs having increasing fractal dimensions, to transform arbitrary continuous probability measures defined over a closed interval. Specifically, let X be any probability measure on the closed interval I with a continuous cumulative distribution. And let fΘ,D:I → R be a deterministic continuous fractal interpolating function, as introduced by Barnsley (1986), with parameters Θ and fractal dimension for its graph D. Then, the derived measure Y = fΘ,D(X) tends to a Gaussian for all parameters Θ such that D → 2, for all X. This result illustrates that plane-filling fractal interpolating functions are ‘intrinsically Gaussian'. It explains that close approximations to the Gaussian may be obtained transforming any continuous probability measure via a single nearly-plane filling fractal interpolator.