This paper uses the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) point process model to study certain seismicity features of the Jiashi swarm of certain earthquakes, investigating in particular whether there is relative quiescence prior to the quite big events within the Jiashi sequence. The seven earthquake sequences studied occurred in the region of Jiashi, south of Tianshan Mountain, Xinjiang, China. The particular ETAS model that is developed is consistent with the reality of seismic activity. The various features of Jiashi swarm activity can be described as focusing in different stages. There is obvious precursory quiescence prior to most big events with Ms ≥ 6.0 within the Jiashi swarm. Thus, checking for relative quiescence can be use for earthquake prediction.

The paper shows that the use of both types of random noise, white noise and Poisson noise, can be justified when using an innovations approach. The historical background for this is sketched, and then several methods of whitening dependent time series are outlined, including a mixture of Gaussian white noise and a compound Poisson process: this appears as a natural extension of the Gaussian white noise model for the prediction errors of a non-Gaussian time series. A statistical method for the identification of non-linear time series models with noise made up of a mixture of Gaussian white noise and a compound Poisson noise is presented. The method is applied to financial time series data (dollar-yen exchange rate data), and illustrated via six models.

A point process procedure can be used to study reservoir-induced seismicity (RIS), in which the intensity function representing earthquake hazard is a combination of three terms: a constant background term, an ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence) term for aftershocks, and a time function derived from observation of water levels of a reservoir. This paper presents the results of such a study of the seismicity in the vicinity of the Tarbela reservoir in Pakistan. Making allowance for changes in detection capability and the background seismicity related to tectonic activity, earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 2.0, occurring between May 1978 and January 1982 and whose epicentres were within 100 km of the reservoir, were used in this analysis. Several different intensities were compared via their Akaike information criterion (AIC) values relative to those of a Poisson process. The results demonstrate that the seismicity within 20 km of the reservoir correlates with water levels of the reservoir, namely, active periods occur about 250 days after the appearance of low water levels. This suggests that unloading the reservoir activates the seismicity beneath it. Seasonal variations of the seismicity in an area up to 100 km from the reservoir were also found, but these could not be adequately interpreted by an appropriate RIS mechanism.

The paper considers one of the standard processes for modeling returns in finance, the stochastic volatility process with regularly varying innovations. The aim of the paper is to show how point process techniques can be used to derive the asymptotic behavior of the sample autocorrelation function of this process with heavy-tailed marginal distributions. Unlike other non-linear models used in finance, such as GARCH and bilinear models, sample autocorrelations of a stochastic volatility process have attractive asymptotic properties. Specifically, in the infinite variance case, the sample autocorrelation function converges to zero in probability at a rate that is faster the heavier the tails of the marginal distribution. This behavior is analogous to the asymptotic behavior of the sample autocorrelations of independent identically distributed random variables.

The paper reviews the formulation of the linked stress release model for large scale seismicity together with aspects of its application. Using data from Taiwan for illustrative purposes, models can be selected and verified using tools that include Akaike's information criterion (AIC), numerical analysis, residual point processes and Monte Carlo simulation.

Consider an inhomogeneous Poisson process X on [0, T] whose unknown intensity function ‘switches' from a lower function g∗ to an upper function h∗ at some unknown point θ∗. What is known are continuous bounding functions g and h such that g∗(t) ≤ g(t) ≤ h(t) ≤ h∗(t) for 0 ≤ t ≤ T. It is shown that on the basis of n observations of the process X the maximum likelihood estimate of θ∗ is consistent for n →∞, and also that converges in law and in pth moment to limits described in terms of the unknown functions g∗ and h∗.

New metrics are introduced in the space of random measures and are applied, with various modifications of the contraction method, to prove existence and uniqueness results for self-similar random fractal measures. We obtain exponential convergence, both in distribution and almost surely, of an iterative sequence of random measures (defined by means of the scaling operator) to a unique self-similar random measure. The assumptions are quite weak, and correspond to similar conditions in the deterministic case.

The fixed mass case is handled in a direct way based on regularity properties of the metrics and the properties of a natural probability space. Proving convergence in the random mass case needs additional tools, such as a specially adapted choice of the space of random measures and of the space of probability distributions on measures, the introduction of reweighted sequences of random measures and a comparison technique.

A near-maximum is an observation which falls within a distance a of the maximum observation in an i.i.d. sample of size n. The asymptotic behaviour of the number Kn(a) of near-maxima is known for the cases where the right extremity of the population distribution function is finite, and where it is infinite and the right hand tail is exponentially small, or fatter than exponential. This paper completes the picture for thin tails, i.e., tails which decay faster than exponential. Limit theorems are derived and used to find the large-sample behaviour of the sum of near-maxima.

Computer simulations had suggested that the strategy that maximises the score on each turn in the dice game described by Roters (1998) may not be the optimal way to reach a given target in the shortest time. We give an analytical treatment, backed by numerical calculations, that finds the optimal strategy to reach such a target.

Let Xi ≥ 0 be independent, i = 1,…, n, with known distributions and let Xn*= max(X1,…,Xn). The classical ‘ratio prophet inequality’ compares the return to a prophet, which is EXn*, to that of a mortal, who observes the Xis sequentially, and must resort to a stopping rule t. The mortal's return is V(X1,…,Xn) = max EXt, where the maximum is over all stopping rules. The classical inequality states that EXn* < 2V(X1,…,Xn). In the present paper the mortal is given k ≥ 1 chances to choose. If he uses stopping rules t1,…,tk his return is E(max(Xt1,…,Xtk)). Let t(b) be the ‘simple threshold stopping rule’ defined to be the smallest i for which Xi ≥ b, or n if there is no such i. We show that there always exists a proper choice of k thresholds, such that EXn* ≤ ((k+1)/k)Emax(Xt1,…,Xtk)), where ti is of the form t(bi) with some added randomization. Actually the thresholds can be taken to be thej/(k+1) percentile points of the distribution of Xn*, j = 1,…,k, and hence only knowledge of the distribution of Xn* is needed.

It is common practice to approximate the cell loss probability (CLP) of cells entering a finite buffer by the overflow probability (OVFL) of a corresponding infinite buffer queue, since the CLP is typically harder to estimate. We obtain exact asymptotic results for CLP and OVFL for time-slotted queues where block arrivals in different time slots are i.i.d. and one cell is served per time slot. In this case the ratio of CLP to OVFL is asymptotically (1-ρ)/ρ, where ρ is the use or, equivalently, the mean arrival rate per time slot. Analogous asymptotic results are obtained for continuous time M/G/1 queues. In this case the ratio of CLP to OVFL is asymptotically 1-ρ.

Fast stable methods for inverting multidimensional Laplace transforms have been developed in recent years by Abate, Whitt and others. We use these methods here to compute numerically the first-passage-time distribution for a spectrally one-sided Lévy process; the basic algorithm is not easy to apply, and we have to develop a variant of it. The numerical performance is as good as the original algorithm.

We study the transformation of a non-stationary point process ξ on ℝn into a weakly stationary point process ͂ξ, with ͂ξ(B) = ξ(Φ-1(B)), where B is a Borel set, via a deformation Φ of the space ℝn. When the second-order measure is regular, Φ is uniquely determined by the homogenization equations of the second-order measure. In contrast, the first-order homogenization transformation is not unique. Several examples of point processes and transformations are investigated with a particular interest to Poisson processes.

We use embedding techniques to analyse the error of approximation of an optimal stopping problem along Brownian paths when Brownian motion is approximated by a random walk.

We study the (two-sided) exit time and position of a random walk outside boundaries which are regularly varying functions of smaller order at infinity than the square root. A natural domain of interest is those random walks which are attracted without centring to a normal law, or are relatively stable. These are shown to have ‘stable’ exit positions, in that the overshoot of the curved boundary is of smaller order of magnitude (in probability) than the boundary, as the boundary expands. Surprisingly, this remains true regardless of the shape of the boundary. Furthermore, within the same natural domain of interest, norming of the exit position by, for example, the square root of the exit time (in the finite-variance case), produces limiting distributions which are computable from corresponding functionals of Brownian motion. We give a functional limit theorem for attraction of normed sums to general infinitely divisible random variables, as a means of making this, and more general, computations. These kinds of theorems have applications in sequential analysis, for example.

The maximality principle [6] is shown to be valid in some examples of discounted optimal stopping problems for the maximum process. In each of these examples explicit formulas for the value functions are derived and the optimal stopping times are displayed. In particular, in the framework of the Black-Scholes model, the fair prices of two lookback options with infinite horizon are calculated. The main aim of the paper is to show that in each considered example the optimal stopping boundary satisfies the maximality principle and that the value function can be determined explicitly.

We show that the stationary distribution of a two-dimensional stochastic fluid network with (possibly dependent) Lévy inputs does not have product form other than in truly obvious cases. This is in contrast to queueing networks, where product form exists for non-obvious situations in which the inputs are independent, and for Brownian networks, where it typically exists for cases where the driving processes are actually dependent.

We discuss necessary and sufficient conditions for power-law and polynomial models to be correlation functions on bounded domains. These results date back to unpublished work by Matheron (1974) and generalize the findings of Gneiting (1999).

This paper introduces a fractional heat equation, where the diffusion operator is the composition of the Bessel and Riesz potentials. Sharp bounds are obtained for the variance of the spatial and temporal increments of the solution. These bounds establish the degree of singularity of the sample paths of the solution. In the case of unbounded spatial domain, a solution is formulated in terms of the Fourier transform of its spatially and temporally homogeneous Green function. The spectral density of the resulting solution is then obtained explicitly. The result implies that the solution of the fractional heat equation may possess spatial long-range dependence asymptotically.

Previous work on the joint asymptotic distribution of the sum and maxima of Gaussian processes is extended here. In particular, it is shown that for a stationary sequence of standard normal random variables with correlation function r, the condition r(n)ln n = o(1) as n → ∞ suffices to establish the asymptotic independence of the sum and maximum.