1 - The world food problem

Summary

Since Malthus wrote his Essay on Population in 1798, many have been concerned that with growing population the world would be less and less able to feed itself. This has not occurred, but modern-day Malthusians warn that Malthus will ultimately be right. The evidence to support this view is scant but the arguments are compelling: population keeps expanding, no new land is being created, crop yields have increased considerably and may have peaked, and the environment may not tolerate the pressure of more intensive agriculture. Yet the evidence to the contrary is also compelling: prices of agricultural commodities are at their lowest level in history, crop yields continue to rise faster than population, and world cereal yields grew more rapidly during the 1980s than during the 1960s or the 1970s.

Despite the concerns expressed, the food situation has improved dramatically for most of the world's consumers. World output of cereals, the main food source for the majority of consumers, has increased by 2.7 per cent per annum since 1950 while population has grown by about 1.9 per cent per annum. Cereal yields (i.e., output per unit of land cropped) alone have increased more rapidly than world population since 1950 – at 2.25 per cent per annum. This has allowed per capita calorie consumption in developing economies to increase by about 27 per cent since the early 1960s. These gains offer the hope that access to food will cease to be a problem for most people.

This does not mean that all people have adequate diets, but rather that the diets for most of the world's consumers have improved dramatically in recent years and should continue to improve.